Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tong Hsing Electronic Industries Ltd, Blackline Inc, Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI STD, Yuanta Div+, ZJLD, Anta
  • BlackLine Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc.: Recurring Sales

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI STD, Yuanta Div+, ZJLD, Anta

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the MSCI May QCIR started last week and there were ad hoc changes to the S&P/ASX family and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX).
  • The end of the coming week will mark the end of the review period for the upcoming rebalances for a bunch of indices with implementation scheduled in May and June.
  • There was inflow to the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) ETF for another week.

BlackLine Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackLine completed a year of profitable expansion with strong financial results for the fourth quarter.
  • The company had total sales of $140 million in Q4 and managed an all-around beat, including a top-line growth of 21%.
  • Moreover, increased utilization was caused by a stronger-than-anticipated demand for professional services due to customers’ willingness to access the solutions’ embedded value.

Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc.: Recurring Sales

By Baptista Research

  • Broadridge delivered a mixed set of results in the quarter.
  • Recurring sales increased by 8% on a constant currency basis, and both segments experienced significant growth but overall revenues were below analyst expectations.
  • However, the top-line growth combined with strict expense control helped to boost adjusted EPS by 11% which resulted in an earnings beat.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Meituan, Network International Holdings, Uber, Lyft Inc, Trimble Navigation, Iridium Communications, MotorK Ltd, Soluna Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • [Meituan (3690 HK) Rating Change]: Meituan’s Counterstrike Is Effective, Upgrade to BUY
  • Competing Proposals
  • Uber Technologies Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Lyft Inc.: A New Bid To Attract Eco-Conscious Customers – Major Drivers
  • Trimble Inc.: Major Drivers
  • IRDM: Compounding Free Cash Flow
  • MotorK – Positive indicators provide strong visibility
  • Soluna Holdings, Inc – Project Dorothy Energized at Last!

[Meituan (3690 HK) Rating Change]: Meituan’s Counterstrike Is Effective, Upgrade to BUY

By Shawn Yang

  • We upgrade Meituan to BUY as (1) its recent subsidy campaign vs. Douyin has achieved some  successes, and (2) its food delivery margin may have further upside; 
  • We suggest that Douyin’s local service market share reaches a high level, especially when compared with its eCommerce market share; 
  • Our C1Q23 top/bottom line are in-line/25.5% vs. cons. Raise TP to HK$ 165, which implies 4x PS/12x PE/1x PS for delivery/in-store/new initiatives.

Competing Proposals

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Middle East and Africa leading payments processing firm Network International is in play. On 21 April, Brookfield submitted a 400p competing proposal, vs. CVC/Francisco’s earlier 387p. Network was trading cheaply.
  • Exposure to underserved MEA markets should support sustainable longer-term growth. My fair value estimate is 431p. The shares trade 0.75% below Brookfield’s proposal, the market awaits a counteroffer from CVC/Francisco.
  • The fact that Brookfield has raised just 3.4% above CVC/Francisco seems to signal that Brookfield will be cautious in case of an “auction”. Long.

Uber Technologies Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Uber Technologies Inc. has delivered good results during this quarter and managed an all-around beat with a positive bottom-line.
  • The overall situation is in favor of the company as the competitive environment is getting better.
  • We give Uber Technologies Inc. a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Lyft Inc.: A New Bid To Attract Eco-Conscious Customers – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lyft’s Q4 financial performance was mixed as it reported wider-than-expected losses despite surpassing the revenue expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company saw a mix of high demand for ride-sharing services, an improving supply, and promising early results from its cost-cutting initiatives.
  • Its overall revenue for 2022 increased by 28% compared to 2021 and the company added $375 million to its insurance reserves.

Trimble Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trimble Inc had a disappointing result and failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The challenges in terms of the supply chain remained the same in the business environment, which has also affected the operations of the company.
  • Trimble delivered over 20% organic growth in ARR in addition to high levels of ACV software bookings and cross-sell bookings.

IRDM: Compounding Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IRDM reported first quarter results continuing its recent trend of adding more billable subscribers to its network. 
  • The first quarter is seasonally a period when there are fewer maritime customers, but Internet of Things (“IOT”) data subscribers grew sequentially
  • Equipment revenue has grown over the past year. IRDM’s partners do not stock inventory. Therefore, any planned installs should result in higher subscriber revenue as these units are activated

MotorK – Positive indicators provide strong visibility

By Edison Investment Research

MotorK’s Q123 trading update indicates that the group is on track to meet its FY23 guidance and our forecasts after management secured 59% of the annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth required. Performance in Q1 was strong, with the group reporting high double-digit revenue growth, driven by low customer churn and continuing multi-product adoption. With investment in its platform largely complete, the company is starting to see operating leverage. The stock is up 89% year to date, and we believe there is still significant upside potential, as highlighted by its discount to peers.


Soluna Holdings, Inc – Project Dorothy Energized at Last!

By Water Tower Research

  • Project Dorothy now energized. ERCOT (grid operator) has given final approval to energize the first 50 MW of Soluna’s game-changing Project Dorothy.
  • The long-delayed project had been held up by ERCOT while it implemented its new Interim Large Load Interconnection Process to ensure grid reliability.
  • Energization sets the stage for signing hosting contracts at Project Dorothy. Soluna can now finalize and begin receiving revenues from hosting contracts at Project Dorothy.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Adtran Inc, iQIYI Inc, Shift Up Corp, Acal PLC, Tencent, VA Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: SMA Solar, Hochtief, Adtran, Aroundtown
  • [iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US) Target Price Change]: Reiterate SELL for Increasing Competition
  • 2022 Financial Results of Major Unlisted Companies in Korea
  • discoverIE Group – Upgrading on strong close to FY23
  • Tencent/Netease: Zeroed in April
  • VA Corporation: One-Stop Metaverse Platform

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: SMA Solar, Hochtief, Adtran, Aroundtown

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
  • At present, I do not see any movements between the DAX and MDAX indices.
  • However, there could be two changes between the MDAX and SDAX index and there could be one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index.

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US) Target Price Change]: Reiterate SELL for Increasing Competition

By Shawn Yang

  • We forecast iQIYI 1Q23 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3.6%)/(6.3%), largely due to the rebound of content costs to cope with competition pressure. 
  • We raise our full year ads revenue estimate slightly to reflect the better-than-expected macro recovery. Our top and bottom lines in 2023 are (3.3%)/(7.0%) vs cons, due to long-term competition. 
  • Maintain SELL but slightly raise TP to US$ 5.60, implying 18.4X PE in 2023.

2022 Financial Results of Major Unlisted Companies in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide 2022 key income statement items of 12 major unlisted companies in Korea that are likely to complete their IPOs in the next 6-12 months. 
  • Among these 12 private companies, the top five with the highest sales growth in 2022 include Shift Up, Foosung Global, Ecopro Materials, Nexteel, and Smilegate RPG.
  • The top five companies with the highest operating profit growth in 2022 include Nexteel, Ecopro Materials, CJ Olive Young, Foosung Global, and Smilegate RPG. 

discoverIE Group – Upgrading on strong close to FY23

By Edison Investment Research

With Q423 trading slightly better than expected, discoverIE is on track to deliver FY23 underlying earnings ahead of board expectations. The year-end order book was also higher than anticipated due to stronger than expected order intake in Q423, providing good visibility for FY24. We have upgraded our underlying EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 and reduced our net debt forecasts over the same period.


Tencent/Netease: Zeroed in April

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for April batch. The number of games approved is in-line with the pace of approval in recent month.
  • Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease received approval for none. Tencent is behind its peers since the approval resumed.

VA Corporation: One-Stop Metaverse Platform

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Founded in 2021 and headquartered in Seoul, VA Corporation (VA KS) has developed a virtual media platform for the metaverse industry.
  • Through the use of VR, the company’s metaverse platform provides services from planning and production to branding and distribution of content.
  • The company achieved the unicorn status within 13-months of its founding due to its proven track record, making it an attractive investment in the metaverse space.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Bh Co Ltd, HKBN Ltd, Qisda Corp, Mito Health Pte Ltd, Realtek Semiconductor, Kanzhun, Zi Care Technology, Compeq Manufacturing, Troopers Innovation, MindX and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • An Exposed Target for Flow Trading on KQ150 Ad-Hoc Change by BH’s KOSPI Transfer Listing
  • If HKBN Gets Taken Out, Who’s Next?
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview
  • Seedly Co-Founders’ AI-Powered Healthtech Startup Raises $1.3m
  • Ten Taiwan Tech Stocks With Largest Rising Institutional Ownership
  • [Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US) Earnings Preview]: Weak Hiring Sentiments Drag Down Growth Trend
  • Indonesian E-Medical Records Startup Zi.Care Attracts US$2M Funding
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TWSE Div+ Jun 23: Take the Win on YFY Now
  • BetterPlace Acquires Malaysian On-Demand Frontline Workers Firm Troopers
  • Vietnamese Online Coding School MindX Nets US$15M Series B Financing

An Exposed Target for Flow Trading on KQ150 Ad-Hoc Change by BH’s KOSPI Transfer Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • BH Co Ltd (090460 KS) will likely complete the transfer listing by early May, suggesting an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
  • BH’s GICS sector is INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. It means the top reserved issue at the previous review gets to replace BH. At this point, it will be HFR Inc (230240 KS).
  • We should build up a Long position on HFR right after KRX approves BH’s transfer and then close it on the next trading day after the KQ150 corporate action announcement.

If HKBN Gets Taken Out, Who’s Next?

By David Blennerhassett

  • HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) spiked 12.3% yesterday in response to media reports (like this one) that China Mobile (941 HK) was running a ruler over the company.
  • This follows Bloomberg reports last month and in May last year, that I Square’s HGC Global Communications and numerous PE outfits were kicking tyres of the Hong Kong broadband play.
  • Over the weekend, Hong Kong’s security chief was quoted as saying “the internet could become a major loophole when maintaining national security“. HKT (6823 HK) is a potential privatisation candidate. 

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.
  • There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.

Seedly Co-Founders’ AI-Powered Healthtech Startup Raises $1.3m

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore’s Mito Health is one of the growing number of healthtech startups jumping on the AI bandwagon.
  • It’s the new venture of Kenneth Lou and Tee-Ming Chew, who co-founded and exited personal finance firm Seedly in 2022.
  • Using diagnostic results and wearable data, Mito Health plans to create personalized health plans for customers by augmenting medical expertise with AI.

Ten Taiwan Tech Stocks With Largest Rising Institutional Ownership

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • We analyze increase in institutional ownership across our Taiwan Tech universe.
  • Realtek, Nuvoton, Powerchip, Faraday Technology stand out as stocks that have had rising institutional ownership but have traded flat over the same period. Realtek will have earnings April 21st.
  • Advanced Energy has fallen in price even as institutions appear to have accumulated the stock.

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US) Earnings Preview]: Weak Hiring Sentiments Drag Down Growth Trend

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect BZ to report 1Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income in-line with consensus. Our 2023 revenue and non-GAAP net income are (5.3%) and (37.8%) 
  • Lower than consensus, mainly due to  1) weaker growth outlook, 2) lower gross margin and 3) higher S&M cost; 
  • BZ platform’s supply side growth outpaced demand side in the spring season, indicating a weak recovery in recruiting. We maintain SELL rating and TP at US$13.5.

Indonesian E-Medical Records Startup Zi.Care Attracts US$2M Funding

By e27

  • Singapore-based early-stage VC firm Oriza Greenwillow Technology Fund has committed to investing US$2 million in Indonesian startup Zi.Care, which digitises medical records for hospitals.
  • The Jakarta-headquartered electronic medical records (EMR) startup is eyeing a total of US$3 million in this Series A round. Several other regional VCs will also be invited to participate.
  • The startup will use funds to strengthen its focus on increasing digitalisation in the health sector.

Quiddity Leaderboard TWSE Div+ Jun 23: Take the Win on YFY Now

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s estimations for index changes and capping flows for the Taiwan Div+ index for the June 2023 review.
  • I currently see 4 ADDs/DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
  • My latest estimation for one-way flow is around US$778mn which translates to a turnover of approximately 12%.

BetterPlace Acquires Malaysian On-Demand Frontline Workers Firm Troopers

By e27

  • BetterPlace, SaaS-based frontline workforce management platform in India, has announced the acquisition of Malaysia-based Troopers, a provider of on-demand, pre-screened, part-time frontline workers to enterprises.
  • The transaction details remain undisclosed.
  • The deal will allow BetterPlace to accelerate its presence and establish a stronger foothold in Southeast Asia. It will integrate Troopers’s automated gig matching and rostering features into BetterPlace’s SaaS platform.

Vietnamese Online Coding School MindX Nets US$15M Series B Financing

By e27

  • MindX, an online coding school in Vietnam, has secured US$15M a Series B financing round, led by Kaizenvest.
  • Aksorn, Mynavi Corporation, and Wavemaker Partners also joined the round.
  • The edutech startup will use the money to grow its platform, expand its reach into smaller cities and rural areas, as well as to create more educational content.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: HKBN Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), KT Corp Sp Adr, Domain Holdings Australia, Softbank Group, PDD Holdings Inc, Rovio Entertainment, Nreal.ai, First Solar Inc, Paychex Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest
  • TSMC:  Crowded Trade?
  • Targeting the Widening of KT Corp ADR Premium Amid MSCI Inclusion
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 23: DHG Could Underperform Peers
  • Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?
  • [PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$95) Earnings Preview]: BUY on Expected Margin Beat
  • Sega Sammy Holdings/Rovio Entertainment: Agreed Offer
  • Nreal: AR/MR Technology Player Recognised for Affordable Glasses
  • First Solar Inc: A Strong Start To 2023 – Key Drivers
  • Paychex Inc.: Strong Margin Expansion & Other Drivers

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that China Mobile (600941 CH) is exploring a potential buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. 
  • To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.
  • PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.

TSMC:  Crowded Trade?

By Steven Holden

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is by far the most dominant stock holding among active EM investors.
  • TSMC is owned by 87.5% of EM funds with an average weight of 6.1%, it is also the largest portfolio holding for 64.5% of managers.  
  • Despite high levels of positioning, there are no obvious signs that managers are scaling back positions. The risk of not holding TSMC may be greater than playing the contrarian.

Targeting the Widening of KT Corp ADR Premium Amid MSCI Inclusion

By Sanghyun Park

  • We should expect significant changes in KT’s ADR premium approaching the implementation date as foreign institutions leading the passive flow for MSCI Korea constituents have typically preferred ADRs.
  • Looking at the previous two occasions, the ADR disparity widened from the midpoint of the review period. And this trend continued for a while after the implementation.
  • Although KT’s ADR disparity has not yet significantly expanded, we may witness a similar pattern this time as well, given that it has been continuously moving in the premium recently.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 23: DHG Could Underperform Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.
  • Based on the latest data, I do not expect any changes for ASX 20, ASX 50, and ASX 100.
  • I expect Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU) to be added to ASX 200 and Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) to be deleted from ASX 200.

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
  • To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
  • We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$95) Earnings Preview]: BUY on Expected Margin Beat

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect PDD to report 1Q23’s revenue and non-GAAP net income 6.1% and 23.8% ahead of consensus, respectively. 
  • PDD entered an adjustment period, reflected in lower S&M expenditure both overseas and domestically, which has led to declining PDD DAU and moderating growth of Temu’s GMV and losses.
  • We raise our PDD’s 2023’s EPS estimate by 14%~ to reflect better-than-expected cost control.  We maintain PDD’s BUY rating and US$ 95 TP, implying 21x 2023 P/E.

Sega Sammy Holdings/Rovio Entertainment: Agreed Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sega with better reputation and deeper pockets than Playtika, announces a €9.25/share recommended cash offer; 63% premium to Playtika’s announcement; it represents 2.1x EV/Fwd Revenue, 12.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 21.6x Fwd P/E.
  • Acceptance condition is over 90%, and irrevocables are 49.1%, so 80.4% of the float is needed, which is high. I value Rovio using DCF (9% WACC, 1.5% perpetuity growth rate).
  • My fair value base case estimate is €8.80/share (€9.45/bull case). I thus update my TP to €9.25. Spread is 0.59%/1.22% (gross/annualised), which is not massive. 

Nreal: AR/MR Technology Player Recognised for Affordable Glasses

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Founded in 2017 in Beijing, Nreal.ai (1690070D CH) is an Augmented Reality (AR)/ mixed reality (MR) technology company that develops and sells AR glasses.
  • The company’s glasses have received wide recognition as they are designed to be lightweight, comfortable and affordable, making them more accessible to consumers.
  • The company has raised more than USD240m in funding and as per the company, we could expect an IPO over the next 18-24 months.  

First Solar Inc: A Strong Start To 2023 – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • First Solar entered 2023 with an improved financial, operational, and commercial position with increased R&D, new international and domestic capacity coming online as well as a new Series 7 product.
  • The company commenced initial production at its next-generation Series 7 factory in Ohio will continue to ramp this year.
  • Furthering its manufacturing program, First Solar recently announced an innovative 3.5-gigawatt Series 7 factory in Alabama and also a 0.9-gigawatt rise to nameplate capacity at its Ohio factories.

Paychex Inc.: Strong Margin Expansion & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Paychex produced strong financial results, with third-quarter total revenue growth of 8% and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 12%.
  • It managed to deliver an all-around beat Revenue for Management Solutions climbed 7% to $1 billion because of new product attachments and auxiliary HR services.
  • The continued high demand for their ERTC service accounted for about 1% of the quarter’s revenue growth.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Money Forward, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Micron Technology, BlackBerry Ltd, Vection Technologies Ltd, Ethereum, Paycom Software, Pinterest Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target
  • Money Forward: Lower S&M Spending in 1Q Drives Losses Down
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report
  • Micron Technology: How This DRAM & NAND Leader Is Surviving In A Challenging Market – Key Drivers
  • BlackBerry Limited: IoT Diversification And IVY Ecosystem Development – Key Drivers
  • Vection Technologies – Rapid H2 growth de-risks ambitious FY23 target
  • ETH’s Big Post-Shapella Rally
  • Paycom Software: Leveraging Its Marketing and Technology Investments – Key Drivers
  • Pinterest Inc: Managing The Social Media Slowdown – Key Drivers

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • A prominent bottom below 5000 in Q4 2022 set up an impulsive multi-month uptrend and LT uptrend bias. Our 2023 target at 9450/70 reflects this major bottom.
  • 2023 has delivered a tangible downward correction. Since mid-February a Head and Shoulders Bottom has formed. A break above the neckline at 7085 targets 7770/80 in Q2 2023.

Money Forward: Lower S&M Spending in 1Q Drives Losses Down

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • MF reported 1QFY11/2023 results on Friday. Revenue increased 43.0% YoY to ¥6.8bn (vs consensus ¥6.5bn) while operating losses dropped to ¥1.59bn vs ¥1.65bn in 1QFY11/22 (vs consensus ¥2.0bn).
  • The company’s S&M spending is the lowest during first quarter of the year, which drove losses down. However, the company has guided for higher S&M spending in 2Q.
  • Our analysis on Money Forward (3994 JP) BO SAAS vs Non-BO SAAS shows that non-BO businesses’ GPM has continued to decline suggesting that these non-BO businesses only help inflate revenues.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC is cutting its 2023E capex plans by 12% according to Taiwan’s EDN. The company will also report earnings this Thursday.
  • TSMC suppliers ASML and Lam Research will also be reporting this week. Realtek will report this week as well.
  • Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta & Pegatron pair.

Micron Technology: How This DRAM & NAND Leader Is Surviving In A Challenging Market – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Micron Technology’s results in the quarter were disastrous as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street and reported wider-than-expected losses.
  • Total fiscal revenue was down, whereas DRAM revenue represented 74% of the total revenue.
  • Revenue from the Mobile Business Unit was up and Embedded Business Unit revenue was down.

BlackBerry Limited: IoT Diversification And IVY Ecosystem Development – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackBerry delivered a mixed result in a challenging macro environment.
  • Blackberry IoT closed out with strong year-over-year revenue growth.
  • In the quarter, Blackberry secured an overall 36 new design wins and in multiple auto domains, QNX is winning.

Vection Technologies – Rapid H2 growth de-risks ambitious FY23 target

By Edison Investment Research

Vection Technologies reported a 60% uplift in its total contract value (TCV) to A$16m from the TCV metric announced at the half year, driven by new contract wins, upsells from existing clients and recognising delayed contracts from Q223. Delivering rapid contract growth in H223 instils further confidence in management’s FY23 revenue guidance of A$24–26m for its IntegratedXR technology stack, reflected in the 9% rise in share price following the announcement. As illustrated by our previous note, promising pilot projects, including a potential A$30m tender in the defence sector, should bolster the company’s growth trajectory. A proven track record of converting c 100% of TCV into revenue by year-end further de-risks the group’s FY23 growth target and our forecasts, which are unchanged.


ETH’s Big Post-Shapella Rally

By Kaiko

  • Last week, the Shapella upgrade went live without a hitch, enabling millions of staked ETH to be withdrawn.
  • While Ethereum’s Merge upgrade last September was more of a “buy the rumor sell the news” type of event, Shapella appears to have had the opposite impact on price.
  • ETH spot prices dropped by nearly 18% post-Merge while they are up 11% since Shapella, despite fears of mass selling. 

Paycom Software: Leveraging Its Marketing and Technology Investments – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Paycom reported strong financial results in 2022, with four consecutive quarters of revenue growth of 30% or more.
  • The company’s Q4 revenue was up 30% year-on-year, bringing the full-year 2022 revenue to $1.375 billion, also up 30% year-on-year.
  • Paycom is poised to take advantage of the upward market trend in 2023, as its revenue growth is predominantly driven by clients with more than 2,000 employees.

Pinterest Inc: Managing The Social Media Slowdown – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Pinterest ended 2022 on a mixed note as its revenues were below Wall Street expectations.
  • Given the softening ad market, Pinterest delivered revenue of $877 million in Q4 but it did manage an earnings beat.
  • Overcoming pandemic challenges and achieving increased user engagement, Pinterest has achieved MAUs of 445 million, higher than in the third quarter.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd, Nanya Technology, Ethereum and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | ‘Unbelievable’ Cost Control | Hidden Competition
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya Technology Hopeful of 2H23E DRAM Recovery
  • The New Frontier

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | ‘Unbelievable’ Cost Control | Hidden Competition

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Lalatech’s largest segment by revenue — Chinese intra-city on-demand freight — features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries
  • At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech’s company’s dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year
  • Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces ‘hidden’ competition from several larger groups

Memory Monitor: Nanya Technology Hopeful of 2H23E DRAM Recovery

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nanya Technology’s recent results showed a margin and ASP decline that appears to have performed better than the industry average. 
  • However, Nanya Technology may have traded off better pricing and margins for a continuation of high inventory levels. Nanya shares have underperformed Micron since our Mar 30th piece.
  • Nanya said it expects a marginal recovery for the DRAM market in the second half of 2023E. SK Hynix will be a next major data point, to report April 26th.

The New Frontier

By Etherbridge

  • The true emerging market of our time is the digital economy.
  • As technology advances, we witness rapid online business growth and an increasing reliance on digital solutions.
  • This burgeoning sector knows no borders, with its educated, innovative citizens distributed worldwide.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Money Forward, Samsung SDI, Calnex Solutions PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen
  • Money Forward (3994) | Costs Under Control
  • Price/Flow Impact on Four Constituent Changes in KODEX Top 5 Plus ETF Rebalancing in June
  • Calnex: De-Facto Standards for High-Speed Network Infrastructure Worldwide

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen

By David Blennerhassett

  • Prosus (PRX NA) moved 96mn shares of Tencent (700 HK) into CCASS. Tencent shares fell hard. If the share price fell because of a block offering, that would be unwarranted. 
  • Ecopro (086520 KS) is up an eye-watering 590% in the past three months, primarily on Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s outperformance, together with sentiment towards soon-to-be-listed 52.8% held Ecopro Materials. 
  • Japan’s Finance Minister said that companies need to improve their PBRs, and that “increasing corporate value of listed companies would allow for Japan to realise sustainable growth.”

Money Forward (3994) | Costs Under Control

By Mark Chadwick

  • Money Forward’s Q1 sales grew 43% YoY to 6.8 billion yen, which beat the top end of guidance (Y6.2-6.6b).  
  • EBITDA came in at minus 704 million yen, far ahead of guidance for -Y1.2-1.7b. Money Forward drastically curtailed hiring in the quarter.
  • Money Forward’s stock has turned in a 26% performance so far this year. We believe the stock can continue to rally on focused cost control.

Price/Flow Impact on Four Constituent Changes in KODEX Top 5 Plus ETF Rebalancing in June

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung SDI and LG Chem are expected to be newly included in the index, while Hana Financial and KT&G Corporation are predicted to be excluded.
  • The correlation between the price movement and the flow direction on the rebalancing trading day of constituent changes from the past reviews was quite high.
  • We can set the price impact expectation for the upcoming review even more aggressively, given that the size of the flow x DTV is more significant than in previous cases.

Calnex: De-Facto Standards for High-Speed Network Infrastructure Worldwide

By Steven Chen

  • Despite a micro-cap status, Calnex is the key player behind the evolution of high-speed network infrastructure on a truly global basis;
  • The company has a market-dominant position at several critical points across the global telecoms ecosystem;
  • The recent plunge in share price demonstrates Mr. Market’s short-termism and presents a good opportunity for incoming shareholders, in our opinion.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Citizen Watch, WCP, Ecopro BM Co Ltd, Longcheer Technology Shanghai, Baidu, Amazon.com Inc, International Business Machines and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Citizen Watch (7762) : Super-Aggressive Buyback Likely Ending Soon – Beware of Risks Both Ways
  • A High Conviction Long Short Trade in KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing in June
  • Ecopro BM: Considering on a CB Issuance of 500 Billion Won
  • Shanghai Longcheer: Leading ODM Vendor Leveraging Its Expertise for AR/VR
  • [Baidu (BIDU US) Target Price Change]: Better Recovery with Leading Position in AIGC
  • Amazon: Having A Long-Term View Doesn’t Mean You Should Disregard Immediate Risks
  • IBM: Don’t Be Fooled By Recent Share Price Performance

Citizen Watch (7762) : Super-Aggressive Buyback Likely Ending Soon – Beware of Risks Both Ways

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-February 2023, Citizen Watch (7762 JP) announced another buyback. It had averaged nearly two small buybacks a year for the past four years for a total of ¥10bn.
  • This new one was ¥40bn, which assuming a 20% share price jump was 12% of ADV for a year. Bigly! We got the 20% jump, then not much more.
  • But Citizen has been buying fiercely. In the first 25 days of trading they averaged 25.8% of volume and bought back 11.5% of shares out. There’s a story here. 

A High Conviction Long Short Trade in KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing in June

By Sanghyun Park

  • WCP will likely be included in the rebalancing of Samsung KODEX Secondary Battery Industry ETF in June. And we should consider the possibility of this happening to be quite high.
  • We can expect a daily passive inflow of around 0.3x compared to WCP’s typical DTV. The practical correlation with the price should be higher than the theoretical level.
  • We should consider using SKIET, which engages in the same business in the same sector, as a hedge. WCP/SKIET Long Short achieved considerable performance within the past week’s window.

Ecopro BM: Considering on a CB Issuance of 500 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • According to Hankyung Business Daily, Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) is considering on issuing a CB worth 500 billion won to various private equity and asset managment companies.
  • We would be negative on the potential CB issuance of nearly 500 billion won by Ecopro BM.
  • The potential issuance of this CB is a signal from the management that it is trying to capitalize on the recent sharp increases in share price to raise more capital.

Shanghai Longcheer: Leading ODM Vendor Leveraging Its Expertise for AR/VR

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shanghai Longcheer Technology is a Chinese company that specializes in providing smart products and services including smart phone ODMs, tablets, VR/AR headbands, smart wearables and smart home products.
  • Founded in 2022, the company is one of top three global integrated service providers of smartphone ODMs.
  • Longcheer’s previous attempt to go public in 2018 was rejected, however, it has revived its IPO plans and in 2023, expressed its interest in seeking a public listing.  

[Baidu (BIDU US) Target Price Change]: Better Recovery with Leading Position in AIGC

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that Baidu’s 1Q23/2023 bottom line would beat cons. by 13.2%/6.5%, mostly driven by better-than-expected recovery of ads business and cost-saving measures. 
  • We remain optimistic about Baidu’s AIGC leading position, because Baidu still gains the edge for its first-mover advantage and continuous investment. 
  • Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$175, implying 17.9X PE in 2023

Amazon: Having A Long-Term View Doesn’t Mean You Should Disregard Immediate Risks

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • After losing nearly a third of its value, Amazon looks more attractive than a year ago.
  • Investors should be mindful of recency bias when evaluating Amazon’s share price attractiveness.
  • The unique business model also poses some risks that should be considered regardless of one’s investment horizon.

IBM: Don’t Be Fooled By Recent Share Price Performance

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • IBM has delivered a positive return of nearly 20% over the past two years, but that has little to do with actual business performance.
  • In addition to sluggish growth, IBM’s declining profitability remains a problem.Issues related to the company’s high debt load, low dividend coverage and an addiction to acquisitions have not gone away.
  • Being an IBM (NYSE:IBM) shareholder hasn’t been easy over the years as the market continues to make new highs, while IBM still trades at levels from 2010.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Global Unichip, Tata Technologies, Temenos AG, LTIMindtree, Tata Consultancy Svcs, Infosys Ltd, JD.com Inc (ADR), Soluna Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Taiwan May QCIR: Potential Inclusions to Drive Deletions
  • Tata Technologies Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still Has a Few Issues
  • Temenos (TEMN SW; TMSNY US): M&A Looks Imminent
  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: LTIMINDTREE Could Be an Intra-Review NIFTY 50 ADD
  • TCS: Q4FY23 Growth and Margins Weaker than Expected
  • Infosys: Weak Q4FY23 Earnings
  • [JD.com (JD US, SELL, TP US$27) Earnings Preview]: Slow-Growth and Competitive Pressure Remain
  • More Milestones Reached on the Path of the Company’s Evolution

MSCI Taiwan May QCIR: Potential Inclusions to Drive Deletions

By Brian Freitas


Tata Technologies Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still Has a Few Issues

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)  (TT) is looking to raise around US$600m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers. 
  • In this note we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Temenos (TEMN SW; TMSNY US): M&A Looks Imminent

By Vijay Lohia, CFA

  • Temenos is an attractive takeover candidate with multiple M&A  speculation in the media in the last 12-18 months. 
  • The probability of Temenos being taken over continues to increase especially after the fresh round of banking industry turmoil witnessed in the last few weeks.
  • At a buy-out multiple of 10x EV/sales, Temenos would be worth CHF110 per share which is roughly 72% upside from here.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: LTIMINDTREE Could Be an Intra-Review NIFTY 50 ADD

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
  • A couple of these names could become intra-review additions if the HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Merger closes prior to the September 2023 Rebalance.
  • Apart from that, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 index which by definition will also be added/deleted from the NIFTY Next 50 index.

TCS: Q4FY23 Growth and Margins Weaker than Expected

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • TCS reported weaker than expected growth and margins. YoY growth in constant currency (CC) terms came in at just 10.7%. Operating Margin (OPM) came in at 24.1% vs 25% expected.
  • North America in particular has seen some demand slowdown, largely due to deferment of discretionary projects and delayed decision making. Europe is improving as energy crisis is receding.
  • Looking forward, Europe, in particular UK, is likely to lead the growth. North America may also come back as the banking crisis there seems to have been contained.

Infosys: Weak Q4FY23 Earnings

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Infosys reported a weak Q4FY23 with QoQ CC (Constant Currency) growth down by -3.2%. OPM (Operating Margin) contracted QoQ by -50bp to 21%, and was weaker than 21.5%+ expected. 
  • Led by macro concerns, demand outlook remains cautious with FY24 growth guided to be 4-7% YoY in CC terms.
  • The bottom end of the FY24 OPM guidance has been lowered to 20% vs 21% achieved in FY23. Overall OPM guidance for FY24 is 20-22%.

[JD.com (JD US, SELL, TP US$27) Earnings Preview]: Slow-Growth and Competitive Pressure Remain

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect JD to report C1Q23 top-line and non-IFRS net income (1.7%) and (12%) vs. consensus, respectively. 
  • We expect revenue to decline (1%) YoY in 1Q23 and grow just 3% YoY in FY23, due to (1) slow recovery in key product categories like electronics; (2) team restructuring;
  • And (3) competitive landscape. We maintain SELL and US$27 TP. Our TP implies 10x 2024 P/E.

More Milestones Reached on the Path of the Company’s Evolution

By Water Tower Research

  • Project Dorothy interconnection now complete and ready for energization.
  • Soluna announced that it has completed the final interconnection construction, setting up for the energization of the first 25 MW phase of the project, which will soon be followed by the 25 MW phase (Dorothy 1B).
  • The final energization requests have been submitted to ERCOT (the grid operator) and we expect the project to be energized in the coming weeks.

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