Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: AAC Technologies Holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, At&T Inc, Sap Se Sponsored Adr, F5 Networks Inc, 1Spatial Plc, Gaia and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Another Major Earnings Week; Hon Hai Deal Exit? AMD Transfers Orders to Samsung
  • AT&T Inc.: Low Churn & Rising ARPU Saving The Day? – Key Drivers
  • SAP SE: Cloud Backlog Shoots Up But Is It Enough? – Key Drivers
  • F5 Inc.: A Resilient Performer Amidst Macro Uncertainty – Key Drivers
  • 1Spatial – New SaaS apps to drive high-margin growth
  • GAIA, INC. – 1Q23 Results Signal Positive Inflection with Renewed Membership Growth

Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
  • Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.
  • Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Another Major Earnings Week; Hon Hai Deal Exit? AMD Transfers Orders to Samsung

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Another major earnings week with AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Acer, Winbond, Wistron, Micro-Star, and more.
  • Hon Hai could terminate its investment deal in U.S.-based Lordstown Motors as per an exchange notice posted by Lordstown.
  • AMD reportedly transfers some 4nm chip business to Samsung from TSMC.

AT&T Inc.: Low Churn & Rising ARPU Saving The Day? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AT&T delivered mixed results in the quarter with below-par revenues but profitability above expectations.
  • As a result, wireless service revenues and EBITDA may increase, and margins may improve.
  • Despite a slowdown in industry growth, their Business Solutions wireless service revenues increased by almost 7%.

SAP SE: Cloud Backlog Shoots Up But Is It Enough? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SAP delivered a highly disappointing set of results failing to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The current cloud backlog and cloud revenue for S/4HANA increased by 79% which is why Q1 revenue increased by 9% overall.
  • Their SaaS and PaaS portfolios continued to expand by 25%, with SaaS cloud revenue increasing by 22% and PaaS cloud revenue increasing by 45%.

F5 Inc.: A Resilient Performer Amidst Macro Uncertainty – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • F5 managed an all-around beat in its second quarter results despite ongoing macro-uncertainty.
  • Global Services revenue increased by 8% to $363 million, owing to high maintenance renewals and the effects of the price increase implemented in Q4 of last year.
  • Product sales increased 14% year on year, reflecting strong system shipments compared to a more difficult comparison in the previous quarter.

1Spatial – New SaaS apps to drive high-margin growth

By Edison Investment Research

1Spatial’s full year results confirm the solid progress made over the course of the year with revenue growing 11%, recurring revenues growing 21% and EBITDA margins expanding from 15.5% to 16.7%. With momentum continuing into this year, and a healthy order book and pipeline, the company looks well set for 2024. Progress in its key strategic growth pillars – traffic management, US expansion and smart partnerships – looks promising and could accelerate scalable high-margin recurring revenue growth. Investment in key sales hires suppresses our profitability estimates for FY24, but we expect this to start delivering returns in the form of faster growth and margin expansion from FY25.


GAIA, INC. – 1Q23 Results Signal Positive Inflection with Renewed Membership Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • Gaia reported 1Q23 revenue of $19.6 million versus $21.8 million in 1Q22, in line with expectations, but more importantly, this was the first quarterly sequential improvement in a year, which was also accompanied by the first member count growth in a year (+7,500 members).
  • Sequential revenue growth, member count growth, and improved retention all indicate a fundamental turn in Gaia’s business.
  • The company seems to have completed the cycle-through of its “COVID cohort bulge” and is now left with higher lifetime value members, providing a solid base for forward growth.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Shenandoah Telecommunications Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • [SMIC (981 HK, BUY, TP HK$24) Target Price Change]: Still Waiting for Downstream Inventory Digestion
  • SHEN: One-Time Benefits Offset Loss

[SMIC (981 HK, BUY, TP HK$24) Target Price Change]: Still Waiting for Downstream Inventory Digestion

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect SMIC to report C1Q23 top-line, IFRS operating income, and non-IFRS net income (2.6%), (31%), and (29%) vs. consensus, respectively.
  • Our sample of 1Q23 earnings for A-listed fabless firms found that (1) inventory days grew 18% QoQ to 191 days, and (2) revenues declined 9% QoQ. 
  • Despite potential earnings miss, SMIC’s BUY case is strengthened positive externalities. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$24.

SHEN: One-Time Benefits Offset Loss

By Hamed Khorsand

  • SHEN reported first quarter results benefiting from non-recurring termination revenue and tax refunds. SHEN’s revenue and profitability were aided in the quarter with $1.7 million in termination fee
  • Net income benefited from a one-time refund on sales tax and interest earned on tax refunds more than offsetting SHEN’s interest expense
  • SHEN ended the first quarter with 28,793 Glo Fiber subscribers, up 4,507 from the fourth quarter 2022

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: HKBN Ltd, GoTo, Carly Holdings, Mediatek Inc, Shekel Brainweigh Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (01 May) – HKBN, AAG Energy, United Malt, Blackmores, Origin, Metro Pacific
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Foundations Laid for Profitable Growth
  • Carly Holdings Limited – The Right Operational Model
  • Mediatek: TV Demand Peculiarly Strong Within Consumer Electronics Malaise
  • Shekel Brainweigh Ltd – Aiming for EBITDA Breakeven in Q4 CY23

Merger Arb Mondays (01 May) – HKBN, AAG Energy, United Malt, Blackmores, Origin, Metro Pacific

By Arun George


GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Foundations Laid for Profitable Growth

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) 1Q2023 were impressive given the group is now contribution margin positive for all its divisions plus making good headway towards positive Adjusted EBITDA by 4Q2023. 
  • This came at a cost with substantial QoQ declines in GTV for both ODS and e-commerce but better take rates offset this decline. Further significant declines may raise concerns.
  • GoTo Logistics and GoPay’s lending business are key foundational focus areas to underpin a lower cost to serve and higher future growth. Valuations remain reasonable relative to peers. 

Carly Holdings Limited – The Right Operational Model

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription business, which it launched in March 2019, leveraging the existing DriveMyCar operations and technology.
  • Car subscription allows business and retail customers to pay a single monthly fee to access a car for 30 days or more and is an alternative to purchasing or financing a vehicle.
  • Carly has attracted larger automotive industry businesses as shareholders, with a model that facilitates sales volumes of new vehicles and delivers a new recurring revenue stream for automotive manufacturers and dealers. 

Mediatek: TV Demand Peculiarly Strong Within Consumer Electronics Malaise

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Mediatek results showed it may be in one of the stronger positions through this cycle, part of the stronger group of company’s in what appears a ‘two-track’ semi industry recovery.
  • The company reported notable strength in TV end-demand relative to the rest of the consumer electronics space.
  • The company implied 2Q23E could be the company’s cycle bottom.

Shekel Brainweigh Ltd – Aiming for EBITDA Breakeven in Q4 CY23

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Shekel Brainweigh Limited (ASX:SBW) reported FY22 sales growth of 14% to US$26.3m, which included 117% growth in Retail Innovation sales to $US2.0m.
  • Revenue growth has continued into Q1 FY23 with 13% underlying growth, driven by 32% growth in the Self-Checkout division.
  • We estimate an adjusted FY22 EBITDA loss (before amortisation, one-off costs and share-based payments) of US$3.3m, in-line with CY21 and impacted by a ~530bps decline in gross margin, predominantly in H2 FY22.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Delta Electronics Thai, Kunlun Tech, Daou Data Corp, China Mobile, ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd, Chewy Inc, Lumen Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Crashes Vs. Taiwan After Results, Can Correct Further
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KS200, KQ150, HSI, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, PCOMP, HDFC
  • Insiders At Seoul City Gas and Daou Data Corp Sell Shares Before the Crash
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas
  • ASE Technology: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Demand Suprisingly Weak At End of Quarter
  • Chewy Inc.: Growing Market Share In Pet Products – Key Drivers
  • Lumen Technologies: Quantum Fiber Customers Saving The Day? – Key Drivers

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Crashes Vs. Taiwan After Results, Can Correct Further

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Both Delta Electronics Thailand and its parent Delta Electronics Taiwan reported results; both reports came in below analyst expectations.
  • Delta Thailand shares have dropped 19% since our recent update. The company also did a 10 for 1 share split in an apparent bid to make the shares look ‘cheaper’.
  • Delta’s EV business grew 100% YoY and is becoming a significant driver for the company. The pricing mis-alignment between Delta Thailand and Taiwan has corrected substantially.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KS200, KQ150, HSI, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, PCOMP, HDFC

By Brian Freitas

  • Friday marked the end of the review cutoff for the MSCI, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext and a bunch of other indices for the upcoming rebalances in May and June.
  • There are no major index events coming up this week as a lot of markets are shut on different days.
  • There were big inflows to mainland China ETFs during the week, while there was a big redemption from the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)

Insiders At Seoul City Gas and Daou Data Corp Sell Shares Before the Crash

By Douglas Kim

  • Key insiders at Seoul City Gas (017390 KS) and Daou Data Corp (032190 KS) sold their shares before the recent crash.
  • On 28 April, it was reported that Kim Young-Min (Seoul City Gas Chairman) sold 2% of Seoul City Gas on 20 April, resulting in net sales of 45.7 billion won.
  • These Korean companies are two of the eight stocks related to the CFD derivatives sell-down that have been crashing in the past week. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas

By David Blennerhassett

  • It is relatively low-hanging fruit to “further propel the renmimbi’s internationalisation” and for HKEX, it will “cement HK’s position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center.”
  • The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like Fast Retailing (9983 JP), the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
  • Short Yuexiu Property (123 HK) now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. 

ASE Technology: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Demand Suprisingly Weak At End of Quarter

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASE’s results commentary for its semiconductor packaging and testing service said that inventory problems for the industry are taking longer than expected to improve.
  • The weaker than expected environment was only realized towards the end of 1Q23. The company’s utilization is near an all-time low which is expected to persist through 2Q23E.
  • Automotive remains a bright spot for the company, with Auto-linked revenue rising 30% YoY.

Chewy Inc.: Growing Market Share In Pet Products – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In spite of the operating and economic climate difficulties, Chewy managed to deliver an all-around beat, surpassing the revenue, profitability, and free cash flow expectations of Wall Street.
  • Their net sales climbed 13% to $10 billion during the fourth quarter, representing an annual growth rate of roughly 14%.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Lumen Technologies: Quantum Fiber Customers Saving The Day? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies has its results just around the corner.
  • The company gave a solid result in the last quarter and managed an all-around beat which can also be expected this time.
  • Lumen Technologies recently announced the company’s major network expansion plan for deriving an additional 6 million intercity fiber miles to its existing expansive network by 2026.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Micron Technology, Tencent, SimCorp A/S, ATN International and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Memory Monitor: SK Hynix & Samsung Losses & Conservative Guidance Indicate Two-Track Chip Recovery
  • Tencent: Internet VAS Business Still Playing Catch Up
  • Deutsche Börse/Simcorp: Recommended Offer
  • ATNI: The Catalyst of a Tease

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix & Samsung Losses & Conservative Guidance Indicate Two-Track Chip Recovery

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • SK Hynix and Samsung reported results in the last week, showing major losses for their memory businesses. More evidence of a ‘two-track recovery’ for different parts of the chip industry.
  • SK Hynix’s inventory situation worsened based on our analysis; Micron appears to be managing inventory moderately better than peers based on recent results.
  • Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology: Micron has continued to outperform Nanya Tech, as well as SK Hynix and Samsung.

Tencent: Internet VAS Business Still Playing Catch Up

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent will report 1Q2023E earnings on 17th May. Online gaming revenues have declined YoY for 4-consecutive quarters while social networks revenue has been down for the last two quarters.
  • Our app data analysis suggests that grossing ranks of some of Tencent’s key domestic titles have dropped during 1Q2023 while international titles show an improvement during the quarter.
  • Our regression model suggests that Tencent’s internet value-added services biz’s revenues would grow at lower single digits in 1Q2023E and is still playing catch up with its own self.

Deutsche Börse/Simcorp: Recommended Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Deutsche Börse will offer for DKK 735/share for financial software developer SimCorp, 38.9% premium, 6.5x EV/Fwd Sales (in line with other transactions), and 30.3x EV/Fwd EBIT. 
  • DB offers a full price to grow in data&analytics: my EV/EBIT-based standalone fair value is DKK 629/share, plus (all) synergies taxed and capitalised of DKK 87/share results in DKK 716/share.
  • That figure is still below the offer price, and although gross spread is 0.48%, I’d be long in case of a possible bid by private equity.

ATNI: The Catalyst of a Tease

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATNI started its first quarter earnings call with a tease that is likely to receive investor praise once officially announced. ATNI is finalizing a carrier service agreement 
  • ATNI already has a carrier service agreement with AT&T (T) where ATNI has been building wireless towers for FirstNet
  • During the first quarter ATNI added more broadband and mobile customers within each of its business segments.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fujitsu Ltd, Alibaba (ADR), Tencent, GoTo, MetaCRM, Unity Software, Cosmose , Netgear Inc, Centralnic, Nano Dimension and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • BIG Fujitsu (6702 JP) Buyback – It’s a Lot, but Not, but Still Big
  • Alibaba (BABA US): How Will Generative AI Improve Its Efficiency?
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Q2 2023 Correction Presents a MT Buying Opportunity at 302/330
  • GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability
  • Startup Raises $2.5m to Build One-Stop Web3 CRM Tools
  • Unity Software Shanghai: Localizing Products and Services for Game Developers in China
  • SG’s Cosmose AI Hits $500m Valuation After Fresh Round
  • NTGR: Channel Partners and Demand
  • CentralNic Group – FY23 outlook maintained after record Q1
  • Nano Dimension – Record revenues in FY22

BIG Fujitsu (6702 JP) Buyback – It’s a Lot, but Not, but Still Big

By Travis Lundy

  • Fujitsu earnings are out. Forecasts are in, lighter than consensus. 
  • But there is a buyback. Looking at the way last year’s was executed is not that informative but it may be useful. 
  • This one is big enough to matter but not big enough to get excited about until we get confirmation. 

Alibaba (BABA US): How Will Generative AI Improve Its Efficiency?

By Eric Chen

  • Recent research conducted by industry players – most notably OpenAI – about the impact of generative AI on labor markets provides a framework for gauging its monetization potential.
  • We take a small step forward to apply them to two specific occupations in China including translators and computer programmers, which combined represent RMB1,400 bn TAM.
  • For China’s internet giants such as Alibaba, generative AI could result in cost savings of up to RMB20 bn, or 14% of its FY2023 net profit.

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Q2 2023 Correction Presents a MT Buying Opportunity at 302/330

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Since peaking in January 2023, Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has produced a meaningful ABC correction that is yet to confirm its completion.
  • We anticipate the correction confirming a MT bottom in the 302/330 range, ahead of a renewed multi-month uptrend. Our bullish multi-month target at 451.95 remains firm. 

GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.
  • However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.
  • With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?

Startup Raises $2.5m to Build One-Stop Web3 CRM Tools

By Tech in Asia

  • Most Web3 brands rely on Web2 apps such as Google Forms, Telegram, and Discord for customer support.
  • This makes customer relationship management (CRM) difficult due to rampant customer service fraud and the inability to identify end users across channels.
  • Based in Taiwan, MetaCRM says its Web3 CRM products can connect on-chain and off-chain data to create blockchain-native solutions and analytics tools.

Unity Software Shanghai: Localizing Products and Services for Game Developers in China

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Founded in 2022, Unity Software Shanghai Co. (Unity 3D/Unity China) is a Chinese company that provides a 3D development platform, and AR/VR solutions to the gaming industry.
  • The company is a subsidiary of Unity Software (U US) and focuses on localisation Unity’s products and services to the Chinese market.
  • The company was valued at around US$1bn at the time of its formation and based on deal terms, might go for a listing when its valuation hits US$3.6bn.

SG’s Cosmose AI Hits $500m Valuation After Fresh Round

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-based Cosmose AI said it has received an undisclosed sum from nonprofit Near Foundation to build a payment system that allows users to shop with cryptocurrency at low transaction fees.
  • The deal bumped Cosmose AI’s valuation to US$500 million from US$100 million at the time of its series A round.
  • Using smartphone data, Cosmose AI analyzes foot traffic and engages consumers online, providing insights into offline shopping habits and driving footfall across 20 million venues in Asia.

NTGR: Channel Partners and Demand

By Hamed Khorsand

  • NTGR reported first quarter results asserting sell through was healthy but channel partners were not replenishing their inventory
  • Heading into the results, we had cited the lack of deep discounts in the quarter as a sign that inventory had stabilized. 
  • NTGR is entering the second quarter with no expectation of channel partners coming back with increased order flow

CentralNic Group – FY23 outlook maintained after record Q1

By Edison Investment Research

CentralNic’s Q123 trading update confirms management is delivering on its strategy of robust organic growth, coupled with strong cash generation, which has improved shareholder returns and further deleveraged its balance sheet. The group is confident that it is trading at least in line with current market consensus for FY23 and we maintain our forecasts, which are slightly ahead of consensus. CentralNic’s latest agreement with Microsoft Bing in Online Marketing lowers the group’s execution risk by diversifying its advertiser demand pool and adds to its growth potential.


Nano Dimension – Record revenues in FY22

By Edison Investment Research

Nano Dimension’s FY22 results show that its ‘buy-and-build’ strategy has delivered a quadrupling of revenues during the year. The pace of revenue growth may potentially accelerate following Nano Dimension’s recent bid for 3D printing giant Stratasys.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Activision Blizzard, Beijing Kingsoft Office Software-A, Codan, Softbank Group, ACM Research, Schrole Group Ltd, AppLovin Corp, Elastic NV, Bilibili Inc, Nutanix Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Activision Blizzard – An Unsightly Mess
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June
  • Codan (CDA AU): Balancing Defence And Accelerated Preparedness
  • SoftBank Group (9884 JP) – Revolut’s Impending Valuation Write-Down?
  • [ACM Research Inc. (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Preview]: Tool Monopoly for Next YMTC Expansion
  • Schrole Group Ltd – Strong Growth in Q1 Cash Receipts in a Usually Quiet Quarter
  • AppLovin Corporation: Is AXON 2 The New Secret Weapon For Growth? – Key Drivers
  • Elastic N.V.: Revolutionizing Data Organization and Management – Key Drivers
  • [Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$15.4)]: Long-Term Challenge Exists Amid Short-Term Catalysts
  • Nutanix Inc: The Next Amazon Of Hybrid Multi-Cloud Computing? – Key Drivers

Activision Blizzard – An Unsightly Mess

By Mio Kato

  • Last night the CMA chose to block the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard in the UK on the grounds that it would harm competition in cloud gaming. 
  • The merits of that position are highly debatable in our view but that does not mean that the decision is bad for consumers. 
  • It also does not mean that the decision is bad for Microsoft in our view.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.

Codan (CDA AU): Balancing Defence And Accelerated Preparedness

By David Blennerhassett

  • The highly-anticipated Defence Strategic Review, released on the 24 April, clarifies the five key missions for the Australian Defence Force: maritime, land, air, space, and cyber.
  • One takeaway recommended Defence balance the need for local content against its timely acquisition, suggesting increased off-the-shelf acquisitions. This may favour overseas contractors in place of the domestic industry.
  • Codan (CDA AU), whose metal detectors and communications technology are used by the military, is one SME whose procurement speed may be scrutinised. 

SoftBank Group (9884 JP) – Revolut’s Impending Valuation Write-Down?

By Victor Galliano

  • We have already questioned SoftBank’s private company valuation marks; a Schroders trust recently announced a 46% valuation cut in its Revolut investment, acquired at the July 2021 funding round
  • SVF2 acquired 5% of Revolut, also in July 2021; third party valuation providers indicate that the Revolut USD valuation has fallen by at least 50% in 2022
  • July 2021 was Revolut’s most recent funding round, implying that Softbank may yet need to mark down its valuation; this could also apply to the funds’ other private companies

[ACM Research Inc. (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Preview]: Tool Monopoly for Next YMTC Expansion

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect ACMR to report C1Q23 top-line and IFRS net income 2.8% and 83% vs. consensus, respectively. 
  • We expect it to raise FY the mid-point of its guidance to US$560mn~, due to YMTC orders and 4Q23 order visibility; 
  • We are buyers into earnings but avoid long-positions between reporting dates due to geopolitical risk exposure.

Schrole Group Ltd – Strong Growth in Q1 Cash Receipts in a Usually Quiet Quarter

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Schrole Group Ltd (ASX:SCL) is an Australian software company focused on providing human resource technology solutions to the international education and training sector.
  • Schrole has developed a suite of five HR Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings including the core product, Schrole Connect, a SaaS-based staff recruitment platform.
  • Schrole Group has reported a 23% increase in quarter-on- quarter cash receipts to $1.29m and a narrowed operating cash loss of $0.37m, in what Is a seasonally quiet quarter for the company. 

AppLovin Corporation: Is AXON 2 The New Secret Weapon For Growth? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AppLovin Corporation had a disappointing quarter as it delivered significantly wider-than-expected losses and a negative bottom-line even though its revenues were above Wall Street expectations.
  • Its results in the quarter included the performance of the software platform, which increased 24% year over year.
  • For the first quarter of the upcoming year, they anticipate total revenue and EBITDA to be roughly flat compared to the fourth quarter which implies another possible loss-making quarter.

Elastic N.V.: Revolutionizing Data Organization and Management – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Elastic NV has managed to deliver another all-around beat in its last result and increased its revenue by 27% in the last quarter.
  • Though there have been challenges and obstacles in the macro environment recently, such as problems regarding the supply chain, Elastic has maintained its growth trajectory.
  • We also have a dedicated analysis of the company’s Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$15.4)]: Long-Term Challenge Exists Amid Short-Term Catalysts

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that BILI’s 1Q23 rev./adj. net income are 3%/11% vs cons. 
  • We raise gaming/ads revenue starting from 2Q23 because of 1) an increasing number of newly approved games; and 2) increasing possibilities that pre-roll ads could be launched. 
  • Yet, we still maintain SELL rating and TP unchanged because of concerns about its content ecosystem. Our TP implies 1.7X PS in 2023.

Nutanix Inc: The Next Amazon Of Hybrid Multi-Cloud Computing? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nutanix delivered a strong first quarter with an all-around beat.
  • The company’s renewals continue to be strong, exceeding its projected metrics.
  • Nutanix managed to deliver a successful quarter with efficient growth in the number of customers as well as in revenue and ACV billings.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: China Mobile, Tencent, Vivendi SA, EVmo, Pagseguro Digital Ltd, Olo Inc, Analog Devices, Skyworks Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Actionable Tactical Trade: Long China Mobile H-Share 941HK on Strong Southbound Momentum & A/H Prem.
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$433) Earnings Preview]: Still a BUY, but Not Our Top Pick
  • Vivendi: Leadership Position in Media, Entertainment, Culture, and Communication
  • Core Business Still Strong with 2023 Off to a Good Start
  • Updates on PAGS, YI, SBSAA
  • OLO’s Dilemma… (part 2)
  • Analog Devices Inc.: The Next Big Thing in Mission-Critical Equipment – Key Drivers
  • Skyworks Solutions Inc.: Working Towards The Future of Connectivity and Mobility – Key Drivers

Actionable Tactical Trade: Long China Mobile H-Share 941HK on Strong Southbound Momentum & A/H Prem.

By Jacob Cheng

  • This insight is a short note that aims to ride on short term momentum for the stock
  • Since April, southbound trade contributes to 72% of China Mobile H-share turnover.  So, southbound trade is the major share driver
  • For entire market, A-share is trading at 40% premium to H-share.  For China mobile, the A/H premium is currently at 80%. Strong upside for H-share if premium is to narrow

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$433) Earnings Preview]: Still a BUY, but Not Our Top Pick

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that Tencent 1Q23’s rev./non-IFRS net income beat cons. by 3.6%/4.5%. We forecast that VAS/ads/others will have 6.5%/15.3% /17.6% YoY growth in 1Q23. 
  • We maintain BUY rating for Tencent because of 1) video account, especially the rapid growth of Wechat Beans (微信豆); and 2) recovery of ads revenue from Ecommerce and gaming.
  • We remove Tencent from our top buy ideas because: 1) current consensus has been high; 2) lack of hit title in upcoming pipeline; and 3) launch of DNF casts shadow

Vivendi: Leadership Position in Media, Entertainment, Culture, and Communication

By Alexis Dwek

  • For 2022, Vivendi reported a solid set of results as both revenues and EBITA grew strongly despite the challenging market environment
  • For 2023, positive momentum is expected to be sustained, as management stays confident in the growth prospects.
  • Underlying market growing close 4.6% CAGR to 2026. Solid growth prospects for the Company

Core Business Still Strong with 2023 Off to a Good Start

By Water Tower Research

  • Results recap. EVmo reported record revenues of $12.6 million, up 23% from 2021, on a growing vehicle fleet, higher rental rates from new high-demand cars (Tesla Model 3s), and increased sales efforts.
  • Based on the existing fleet today, the company expects annual revenues of more than $18 million, which would imply 40% growth over 2022.
  • Consolidated net loss was $7.1 million, an almost $8 million improvement from 2021 due to sales growth and cost controls.

Updates on PAGS, YI, SBSAA

By Turtles all the way down

  • A list of my current active ideas are at the bottom of this write-up.
  • I thought I would do a follow up on my Pagseguro (PAGS) article last month, as the write-up was a bit too brief.
  • It was mentioned in the comment section that PIX is the reason the stock is cheap and that it will take market share from Credit Cards in Brazil.

OLO’s Dilemma… (part 2)

By Guasty Winds

  • Over the past few weeks I’ve done a handful of checks with competitors and customers in the restaurant-tech industry.
  • It was by no means exhaustive but definitely insightful.
  • Some were first party conversations; others came from 3rd party expert networks, podcasts interviews (there are lots of good ones out there, by the way) and other vendor white-papers etc.

Analog Devices Inc.: The Next Big Thing in Mission-Critical Equipment – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Despite significant macroeconomic uncertainty in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, Analog Devices managed to deliver an all-around beat.
  • These successes were driven by the company’s unwavering commitment to customer collaboration, the rising demand for cutting-edge technologies, and effective operational management.
  • We give Analog Devices a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Skyworks Solutions Inc.: Working Towards The Future of Connectivity and Mobility – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Skyworks Solutions reported a strong first-quarter financial results, with sales above the analyst consensus estimate, robust profitability, and significant cash flow performance.
  • In addition to the strong financial performance, Skyworks expanded its design win pipeline in a number of emerging high-growth markets.
  • Skyworks expanded its expanding technology portfolio across a growing customer base in IoT.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Meituan, Software AG, Kujiale, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Pico Technology, Xiaomi Corp, Sabre Corp, Kuaishou Technology, Marvell Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Second Rejection – 305 Buy Zone
  • Meituan (3690 HK): Delivery Workers on Strike
  • Silver Lake/Software AG: Agreed Offer
  • Kujiale: 3D Design Platform for Home Décor
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?
  • PICO: Leader in Chinese XR Market
  • [Xiaomi (1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2) Company Update]: EV Expense Acceleration at the Starting Line
  • Sabre Corp: Leveraging The Global Travel Recovery? – Key Drivers
  • [Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$45) Target Price Change]: Competition Intensifies from Major Players
  • Marvell Technologies Inc: 5G & ASICs Saving The Day – Key Growth Drivers

Tencent Second Rejection – 305 Buy Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent’s rally back to the 285 resistance saw a second rejection confirming a b-wave top and our base case call for a C wave slide to the 305 buy support.
  • Corrective structure to align with RSI low just under 30 as the buy zone. Sell volumes are on the backfoot.
  • Macro long zone remains at 305/280 to challenge the 385 bull/bear divide. Near resistance at 370.

Meituan (3690 HK): Delivery Workers on Strike

By Ming Lu

  • Meituan’s delivery workers started a strike in Shanwei City of Guangdong Province.
  • Meituan called many of its delivery workers from other cities nearby as substitutes.
  • We believe the hard job market pushes Meituan to the very font line of industrial relation.

Silver Lake/Software AG: Agreed Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Silver Lake has announced its intention to launch a cash offer to delist Software AG at €30/share (53% premium, 12.7x EV/NTM EBITDA, 20.5x Fwd P/E), targeting 37% of the float.
  • The Board is suportive and Silver Lake does not seek a domination agreement. The offer price will not be adjusted by the next dividend (€0.05, ex-date 19 May).
  • My fair value estimate (EV/EBITDA based) is €26.54/share, the offer price seems adequate. The offer targets 37.6% of the float, feasible. Gross spread (incl. divi) is 0.97%, not terribly exciting.

Kujiale: 3D Design Platform for Home Décor

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Founded in 2011, Kujiale (1716974D CH)  is a Chinese technology company that provides a 3D design and visualization platform for home decoration and furniture.
  • The company’s AR/VR tech platform allows users to generate design sketches to decorate and furnish their homes, as well as providing information and networking services on home design.
  • The company’s parent Manycore is the largest residential interior DDC cloud-based software provider (Kujiale is the flagship product offered by Manycore) with a market share of 56.5% in 2020.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • This week will have some major earnings data points released. In Taiwan, UMC, Delta, Mediatek, ASE will report among other local names in our coverage.
  • Samsung & SK Hynix will report this week, providing major insight into the Memory chip space for companies such as Nanya Technology and Micron.
  • TSMC & ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms… But are we entering a two-track industry recovery?

PICO: Leader in Chinese XR Market

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Pico Technology (1870309D CH)  is a Virtual Reality (VR) / Extended reality (XR) technology company that develops and sells VR glasses and comprehensive XR solutions.
  • The company is the market leader in the XR market in China and has a global presence. It was acquired by ByteDance in 2021.
  • PICO is a company to watch for in the VR/XR segment given it operates in a growing market and has already established itself as a prominent player in this space.

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2) Company Update]: EV Expense Acceleration at the Starting Line

By Shawn Yang

  • Per Tmall tracking data, in 1Q23 we expect Xiaomi’s (1) phone unit sales fell 18% YoY to 31.7mn (2) phone ASP rose 2% YoY,  (3) IoT revenue fell 10% YoY
  • We estimate 1Q23/FY23 operating profit is (16%)/(13%) vs. the street. We expect Xiaomi to spend more on OPEX to support its EV investment; 
  • We maintain SELL and HK$8.2 TP given rising costs despite lack of growth.

Sabre Corp: Leveraging The Global Travel Recovery? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sabre had a challenging Q3 and failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street while delivering wider-than-expected losses.
  • Sabre generated total revenue of $441 million in the quarter, a substantial improvement compared to $278 million in Q3 2020.
  • The distribution revenue of Sabre increased by $140 million year-on-year, and the IT Solutions revenue increased to $145 million in Q3.

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$45) Target Price Change]: Competition Intensifies from Major Players

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect that Kuaishou’s 1Q23/2023 top line would be basically in line vs cons, as major business lines are recovering as macro rebounds. 
  • However, we estimate that its 1Q23/2023 bottom line would still largely miss cons by (36%)/(39%), due to our concerns of increasing competition from WeChat Video Account and Douyin.
  • Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to HK$ 45 to reflect intensifying competition landscape. Our TP implies 1.8X PS/221X PE in 2023.  

Marvell Technologies Inc: 5G & ASICs Saving The Day – Key Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marvell Technologies had a challenging Q4 but it did manage to surpass the revenue expectations of Wall Street.
  • However, the company expects strong growth in revenue from 5G and custom ASICs in Q1, although with gross margins lower than Marvell’s average.
  • In terms of the end markets, data center revenue declined 13% YoY and 21% sequentially, while the rest of the end markets held up relatively well.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: China Mobile, Doubleugames Co, Ltd., Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, HKBN Ltd, United Microelectron Sp Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)
  • Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch
  • Nvidia, TSMC, ASML Trading Monitor –  TSMC & ASML Results Indicate Cycle Bottom 2Q23E for Leaders
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC ADR Premium Hit by Large 1-Period Drop, UMC Discount & Earnings This Week
  • Weekly Deals Digest (23 Apr) – HKBN, Jiangnan, Lian Beng, Yuexiu Property, ZJLD, Mankind, Adicon
  • Taiwan Short Squeeze Potential: Faraday, UMC, Transcend Media Latest Stocks to Watch

Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, the HK Secretary for Financial Services announced a waiver of stamp duty on dual counter trading market making. In November, the Govt of HK gazetted a bill.
  • HKEX launched plans in December. 9 large HK names announced in March they’d apply (Tencent, Kuaishou, Geely, BOC, Anta, AIA, China Resources Beer, Bidu, HKEX). Six more in April.
  • All the announcements are similar. But one on 21 April caught my eye because it is a big H/A with strong southbound support. That’s China Mobile (941 HK)

Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch

By Sanghyun Park

  • Two pairs of constituent changes marked in squares in INTERNET and GAME may offer meaningful trading opportunities: Seojin System IN / Ahnlab OUT and Com2us IN / Doubleugames OUT.
  • Along with TIGER ETF, stealth index funds follow these indices. So, constituent changes in INTERNET and GAME create a flow impact of 0.3~0.6x DTV, even not in the Top 3.
  • Also, INTERNET and GAME have less passive flow impact degradation risk due to momentum trading flows compared to BATTERY and BIO.

Nvidia, TSMC, ASML Trading Monitor –  TSMC & ASML Results Indicate Cycle Bottom 2Q23E for Leaders

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC and ASML reported results last week, with both companies beating consensus earnings expectations.
  • TSMC and ASML both expect their historically high margins to persist and have both shown a major decline in inventory levels. 
  • TSMC expects utilization to bottom in 2Q23E and improve thereafter; which we believe is strong indication of the cycle bottoming for leaders. TSMC however sees the overall industry taking longer.

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC ADR Premium Hit by Large 1-Period Drop, UMC Discount & Earnings This Week

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s ADR spread just experienced one of its largest one-period drops in recent history. The ADRs are now trading at a 2.3% premium after a 4.2% drop.
  • UMC ADR’s are trading at a -1.1% discount to their Taiwan shares. The spread has mostly been trading in negative territory over the last month. UMC earnings coming this week.
  • ASE ADR’s are trading at a 4.7% premium. ASE’s Taiwan shares are down 10% since end-March, compared to a 5% drop for the TAIEX Semiconductor Index.

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Apr) – HKBN, Jiangnan, Lian Beng, Yuexiu Property, ZJLD, Mankind, Adicon

By Arun George


Taiwan Short Squeeze Potential: Faraday, UMC, Transcend Media Latest Stocks to Watch

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • The divergence between the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Market has continued despite both falling moderately.
  • Latest short interest data to note — Faraday Technology experienced a surge in short interest ahead of its earnings this week. UMC has high short interest and results this week.
  • Institutionally underheld stock Transcend Media has experienced rising institutional ownership recently and has a very high short ratio.

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