Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Pegatron Corp, Alibaba (ADR), Grab Holdings, Kuaishou Technology, NetEase Inc, PhilEnergy, Vection Technologies Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: One Change Expected in June
  • Alibaba (BABA US): What It Takes for Re-Rating
  • Grab (GRAB US) – Living in an Ethereal World
  • ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings – Rakuten, Growatt, JD Industrial and Others
  • Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q23, All Business Lines Accelerated
  • Kuaishou 1Q2023: Upbeat Quarter with a Small Share Buyback
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​100 Jun 23: One T50 Change and Four T100 Changes (With TDIV Implications)
  • NTES.US: NetEase Holds Annual Game Conference, Announced New Game Pipelines, and Our Estimations(+)
  • PhilEnergy IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Vection Technologies – Integrating with ChatGPT to enable intelligent VR

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: One Change Expected in June

By Brian Freitas

  • Today was the review cutoff for the June rebalance of the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF. We see one potential change at the review.
  • Passive trackers are estimated to buy nearly 6 days of ADV on Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) while selling around 1.7 days of ADV on Silergy Corp (6415 TT).
  • Short interest on Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) has continued to drop as the stock has moved higher; Silergy Corp (6415 TT)‘s short interest has risen as the stock has dropped.

Alibaba (BABA US): What It Takes for Re-Rating

By Eric Chen

  • Weaknesses of BABA stock and China tech sector in general post their strong earnings recovery for March quarter suggest market’s concerns centering around growth outlook.
  • BABA fundamental has tracked well to our projection since last November. P/E multiple contraction – which priced in too much pessimism – prevented our bullish call from materializing, for now.
  • We stick to our thesis that March quarter results set stage for BABA re-rating on sustained recovery, well-executed overhaul effectively unlocking value and investors’ renewed appetite for China assets.

Grab (GRAB US) – Living in an Ethereal World

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s1Q2023 made for positive reading with rapid revenue growth and a quickening of progress towards profitability but the focus perplexingly seemed to be drawn to the ethereal measure of GMV. 
  • The delivery segment saw the most significant GMV slowdown, impacted by a high base and seasonality but saw rapid revenue growth and record margins. Mobility remained the cash cow.
  • Grab‘s profitability improved considerably in 1Q2023 across all segments, with management upgrading the outlook for FY2023 for adjusted EBITDA and maintaining its breakeven target for 4Q2023, which now looks conservative.

ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings – Rakuten, Growatt, JD Industrial and Others

By Sumeet Singh

  • We spent the second half of last week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.
  • Overall, the mood remains somewhat grim for Hong Kong/China and it will be up to a few upcoming deals to open up the market again.
  • In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.

Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q23, All Business Lines Accelerated

By Ming Lu

  • The revenue growth rates of all business lines accelerated in 1Q23.
  • Operating losses shrank to RMB1.3 bn in 1Q23, less than RMB3 bn in two previous quarters.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 66% for the yearend 2023.

Kuaishou 1Q2023: Upbeat Quarter with a Small Share Buyback

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) ’s 1Q2023 earnings were above consensus estimates with the company reporting positive adj. EBITDA and adj. net profit during the quarter.
  • Operating profit margin of the domestic business further improved while the company managed to significantly reduce operating losses of the overseas business during the quarter.
  • Kuaishou also announced a small share buyback worth of HK$4bn which further affirms the company’s improving fundamentals and should help attract investors.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​100 Jun 23: One T50 Change and Four T100 Changes (With TDIV Implications)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.
  • I see one change for the T50 index and four changes for the T100 index.
  • Even though our standalone flow expectations for the T100 index is insignificant, there is one name with important flow consequences in June 2023.

NTES.US: NetEase Holds Annual Game Conference, Announced New Game Pipelines, and Our Estimations(+)

By Shawn Yang

  • In the evening of May 20th, NetEase held an online conference where it announced release dates for games…
  • …that It has Previously Announced, and Unveiled New Titles that Will Be Launched in the Future.
  • Overall, June Will Be the Peak Month for Newly Launched Titles from NetEase, with One Big Game (Justice Mobile) And Two Smaller Games (Badlanders and Racing Mobile)

PhilEnergy IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of PhilEnergy is target price of 41,545 won per share, which represents 38% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 30,000 won. 
  • We believe a premium valuation multiple to the comps (20%) is appropriate due to PhilEnergy’s higher sales growth rate and higher ROE than the comps in 2021 to 2023.
  • We estimate the company to generate sales of 312.5 billion won in 2023 (up 64.7% YoY) and 361.5 billion won (up 15.7% YoY) in 2024.

Vection Technologies – Integrating with ChatGPT to enable intelligent VR

By Edison Investment Research

Vection Technologies recently announced the integration of ChatGPT into its flagship product, 3D Frame, enabling the creation of an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant within three dimensional (3D) and virtual reality (VR) environments. We believe this is a good example of an enterprise quickly integrating third-party AI to deliver a significant enhancement to its existing products within a timescale (and budget) that was unimaginable 12 months ago.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tokyo Electron, HKBN Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Delta Electronics Thai and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Vs TOPIX Dynamics
  • Merger Arb Mondays (22 May) – HKBN, Newcrest, InvoCare, United Malt, Golden Energy, Penguin, Shinsei
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Rallies as Japan & U.S. Entice Further Investment; CHT Discount
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Stages Sharp Rebound; Should SET50 Index Be Fixed?

Nikkei 225 Vs TOPIX Dynamics

By Travis Lundy

  • This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% – up the 6th week in a row – closing at their highest in 33 years. 
  • Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we’ll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.
  • If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one’s trades, shorts, and executions.

Merger Arb Mondays (22 May) – HKBN, Newcrest, InvoCare, United Malt, Golden Energy, Penguin, Shinsei

By Arun George


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Rallies as Japan & U.S. Entice Further Investment; CHT Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s ADR premium has enjoyed a significant rally perhaps due to increased international attention driven by positive U.S. and Japan news flow.
  • ASE’s ADR premium has dropped to one of the lower values in its most recent range since the start of 2023, representing a gradual decline in this persistent premium.
  • Chunghwa Telecom’s ADR is trading at a discount that likely represents a decent set-up level for this tightly trading spread.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Stages Sharp Rebound; Should SET50 Index Be Fixed?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand has rallied 22.7% from its recent low, despite the local Thai market declining while the Taiwan market rose.
  • Latest Delta Thailand surge unlikely due to Thai market fund flows or company developments. Delta Taiwan generates 2.5x the net profit with similar growth, yet has a smaller market cap.
  • Over time, relative pricing should trend in Delta Taiwan’s favor as valuations are likely to drive longer-term performance — Also, should the SET50 Index be fixed? Seems broken.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tokyo Electron, KPIT Technologies, Krafton Inc, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn
  • KPIT Tech: Strong Q4FY23 and Upbeat FY24 Guidance
  • Krafton: India & Improving Shareholder Return Policy Likely to Lead to Further Outperformance
  • NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Our 13740 Target Was Achieved Last Week – Ongoing Bullish Bias

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
  • FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
  • R&D & CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%

KPIT Tech: Strong Q4FY23 and Upbeat FY24 Guidance

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT reported a strong Q4FY23 with 8.5% QoQ growth in CC (Constant Currency) terms. Q4FY23 EBITDA margin at 19.1% came in higher than 18.5%+ expected.
  • Deal TCV came in highest ever helped by a mega deal of INR $250mm. Even excluding the mega deal, the deal TCV was healthy at $173mm vs $150mm+ typically.
  • KPIT has guided for an upbeat FY24. FY24 revenue growth is guided to be 27-30% in CC terms. FY24 EBITDA margin is guided at 19-20% vs 18.9% in FY23.

Krafton: India & Improving Shareholder Return Policy Likely to Lead to Further Outperformance

By Douglas Kim

  • There is a high likelihood of the Indian authorities fully approving the BGMI game after three months of trial. Plus, it has a solid pipeline of new games under development. 
  • Krafton is improving its shareholder return policy. In addition, the consensus is likely to raise the company’s earnings estimates post its excellent results in 1Q 2023. 
  • We maintain our Positive view of Krafton and its shares are likely to continue to outperform the market this year. 

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Our 13740 Target Was Achieved Last Week – Ongoing Bullish Bias

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 27 March 2023 we identified a pending 6.2% upswing in NQ1 and 13740 target. A further bullish outlook would hinge upon the response to 1yr range highs at 13740.
  • Our interim target at 13740 was achieved and exceeded last week. The weekly close above 13740 identifies an evolving MT uptrend. Interim target at 14350. Potential to 15000+ in 2023. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Leeno Industrial, Applied Materials, Grab Holdings, KE Holdings Inc, Krafton Inc, Alibaba (ADR), Tencent Music, EQS Group AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Preemptive Flow Trading Opportunities with the Fastest-Growing Sector ETFs in Korea
  • Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party
  • Grab: Strong Earnings Beat Fails to Impress Market as Growth Rates Decelerating
  • [KE Holdings (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Operating Leverage Starts to Kick In, Maintain BUY
  • Krafton Inc (259960 KS): PUBG’s Re-Approval in India Could Bring 5% Revenue/Profit Upside
  • [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$109) Earnings Review]: Taobao Growth to Return on Douyin Slow-Down
  • [Tencent Music (TME US) Target Price Change]: Cut TP as Offline Music Activities Begin to Thrive
  • EQS Group – Catching the whistleblowing wave

Preemptive Flow Trading Opportunities with the Fastest-Growing Sector ETFs in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Two SOL sector ETFs are unique in that they only include companies positioned upstream. This results in a group of smaller-sized constituents, which can have a greater flow impact.
  • Once the universe is established, constituent selection and weight adjustment are determined exclusively using full/float market capitalization. As a result, flow trading can be highly predictable.
  • Although they have lower AUM, the five Semiconductor constituents could still face a significant flow impact during this one-day flow event due to their much lower DTV.

Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ
  • Q2’23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.
  • Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That’s not a good sign

Grab: Strong Earnings Beat Fails to Impress Market as Growth Rates Decelerating

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) ’s share price dropped by about 15% despite reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA losses beating consensus estimates.
  • Deliveries’ growth has started falling as more people preferring to dine-out. Grab’s incentive optimisation also has contributed to the fall in growth rates.
  • Grab’s aggressive ambitions to turn around profitability is a significant downside risk as it will impact growth going forward and force the company to invest back on growth.

[KE Holdings (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Operating Leverage Starts to Kick In, Maintain BUY

By Shawn Yang

  • BEKE (Beike) reported 1Q23 revenue 10.4%/12.2% vs our est./cons. non-GAAP net income 65.6%/60.9% higher than our est./cons.
  • Although Beike has stated no intention to lower existing home (EH) commission rate, we still expect EH commission rate to slightly trend down in 2023. 
  • We maintain BUY rating and raise the TP by US$1 to US$22 to reflect 1) steady recovery of property sales in China; 2) better outlook on profitability.

Krafton Inc (259960 KS): PUBG’s Re-Approval in India Could Bring 5% Revenue/Profit Upside

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that the re-approval of PUBG Mobile in the India will contribute to a 5% increase in Krafton’s annual revenue/profit.
  • Despite being banned in India for several times, PUBG Mobile is expected to receive a warm welcome from local players due to its high quality gameplay and good device compatibility.
  • We upgraded our rating to “Buy” in Feb.2023, citing reasons such as PUBG Mobile stabilizing in key markets and Bluehole’s new product schedule. Currently, we remain optimistic view about Krafton

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$109) Earnings Review]: Taobao Growth to Return on Douyin Slow-Down

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA reported 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income in-line/17.7% vs. cons. International commerce and local services revenues beat our est., while Cloud missed.
  • We expect there is still room for margin improvement in FY24. Although Taobao/Tmall will increase spending, the cost savings of other business groups will lead to an overall improvement; 
  • We maintain BUY and US$ 109 TP as (1) Douyin’s impact is becoming less significant; (2) International business is growing quickly; and (3) Positive on the effect of separate listing.  

[Tencent Music (TME US) Target Price Change]: Cut TP as Offline Music Activities Begin to Thrive

By Shawn Yang

  • TME reported 1Q23 results with topline beat our est. by 5.0% and bottom line beat our est. by 25.2%, due to cost-saving measures. 
  • As more offline entertainment activities resume after reopening, it would adversely impact both its online music and social entertainment segments. 
  • Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 6.0 to reflect concert impact and limited catalysts, which implies 12.5X PE in 2023.

EQS Group – Catching the whistleblowing wave

By Edison Investment Research

The German Bundesrat has finally transposed the legislation regarding whistleblowing after the unexpected delay, allowing EQS to move at full steam to start converting its sales pipeline. The Q123 figures show a good start to the year, despite the hold-up, as the implementation of similar whistleblowing legislation stimulated demand in markets such as Italy and Spain. Revenues (excluding Russia) were up 15% on Q122 and EBITDA margin recovered to 8.5% from 0.9%, putting the group on track to meet its full-year guidance. The shares continue to trade well below the level indicated by our DCF.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sea , L&F Co Ltd, Tencent, PhilEnergy, Ansys Inc, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Cognizant Tech Solutions A, iQIYI Inc, Paycom Software and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea (SE US) – Into the Looking Glass
  • How Should We Time the L&F Shorting Event for Another Share Dilution Risk?
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$433) Earnings Review]: Ads Growth Will Accelerate, Maintain BUY
  • PhilEnergy IPO Preview
  • Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth
  • ANSYS Inc.: Investments In AI & HPC
  • Full-Year Results for Alibaba’s CaiNiao: Reduced Losses, Slower Growth, and A (Likely) 2024 IPO
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions: Launch of Cognizant Neuro AI Platform & Other Drivers
  • [iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, SELL, TP US$5) Target Price Change]: Content Pipeline Weakens After
  • Paycom Software Inc.: Launch of Global HCM & Other Drivers

Sea (SE US) – Into the Looking Glass

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd’s 1Q2023 results showed its ability to sustain profitable growth with a vibrant performance from e-commerce and fintech, offset by slower digital entertainment but with visible stabilisation.
  • E-Commerce showed strong performance in Asia, with Brazil making significant progress towards profitability, whilst digital financial services were boosted by a sizable loan book and more diversified funding costs. 
  • Sea Ltd continues to demonstrate its cost leadership and ability to expand its total addressable market while sustaining profitability through better infrastructure and user experience rather than pure promotional spending. 

How Should We Time the L&F Shorting Event for Another Share Dilution Risk?

By Sanghyun Park

  • The main challenge is the construction of new production facilities in the US. The investment amount is estimated to be around ₩1T, achieving an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons.
  • The government’s approval is the most significant factor to monitor. It will likely be granted between late June or early July, which is when we should start building positions.
  • Due to the local market’s expectation of L&F’s upcoming fundraising event, some traders may start building their positions early on. It’s important to consider this possibility and act preemptively.

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$433) Earnings Review]: Ads Growth Will Accelerate, Maintain BUY

By Shawn Yang

  • Tencent’s latest financial results are in line with expectations, with revenue and non-IFRS profit of 2.5%/(2.1%) vs cons. While we anticipate weak growth in the gaming sector,
  • We suggest that advertising presents several catalysts for Tencent, including the recovery of Ecommerce and gaming, WeChat Video Account’s growth, and inter-connections with Baba and Mihoyo. 
  • We maintain a BUY rating with an unchanged target price of HK$433, implying 34X PE in 2023.

PhilEnergy IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • PhilEnergy is offering 2.8 million shares in the IPO and expected market cap range of the IPO is from 279 billion won to 318 billion won. 
  • The IPO price range is from 26,300 won to 30,000 won and the total offering amount is 74 billion to 84.4 billion won.
  • The company’s core products include stacking and laser notching equipment used in the rechargeable batteries manufacturing process. 

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 1Q2023 results. Revenue grew 10.7% YoY and beat consensus estimate by 2.3% while reported operating profit was 2.25 below consensus estimates.
  • Key highlight was the YoY growth in domestic game revenue (+6%) which was mainly driven by strong performance of newly launched titles.
  • There has been strong recovery across all business segments during the quarter and current valuations are still at a discount to historical trading multiples and offer a good entry point.

ANSYS Inc.: Investments In AI & HPC

By Baptista Research

  • Ansys managed an all-around beat in Q1 and its results exceeded expectations across all key metrics.
  • ANSYS invests in five technology pillars: numerics, high-performance computing (HPC), artificial intelligence (AI), 3D design, and system-level simulation.
  • In addition to its investment in numerics, HPC, AI, 3D design, and system-level simulation, ANSYS has been working with key partners to develop new technologies to enhance its capabilities further and bring value to its customers.

Full-Year Results for Alibaba’s CaiNiao: Reduced Losses, Slower Growth, and A (Likely) 2024 IPO

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) ‘s March 2023 quarterly and full-year results can be found within Alibaba’s full-year earnings report, which was released on Thursday May 18
  • In both the March quarter and its fiscal year, CaiNiao showed improved Adjusted EBITDA results, though in both periods the tech-centric logistics network still reported losses
  • Revenue growth slowed to 18% Y/Y in the March quarter, and parent Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) indicated CaiNiao will target an IPO in 2024, a bit later than some expected

Cognizant Technology Solutions: Launch of Cognizant Neuro AI Platform & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • It was a successful first quarter for Cognizant Technology Solutions.
  • The adjusted operating margin for the first quarter was 14.6%, and the company had quarterly solid bookings growth of 28% YoY.
  • We give Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, SELL, TP US$5) Target Price Change]: Content Pipeline Weakens After

By Shawn Yang

  • IQIYI’s 1Q23 top line beat our est. by 8.5%, while its non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons by 95%/82%, largely due to its blockbuster <Knockout>. 
  • However, we expect its content pipeline is weaker compared with other key competitors in Q2. 
  • Our top and bottom lines in 2Q23 are (3.4%)/(7.4%) vs cons, due to the fierce competition. Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 5.0, implying 16.7X PE in 2023.

Paycom Software Inc.: Launch of Global HCM & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Paycom Software had impressive results in the first quarter and managed an all-round beat with revenues of $452 million, up 28% year over year.
  • Employee self-service payroll continues to create significant client acquisitions for Beti, which remains a critical difference in the industry.
  • We give Paycom Software a ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Alibaba (ADR), Canon Inc, Sea , Tencent, Baidu, freee, Arista Networks, Zoominfo Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Potential IPOs – Part 2 – An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+
  • Canon Buyback – 18th in a Row at the Same Size, But This Time With a Running Head Start
  • Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers
  • Sea Ltd: Free Fire’s Downfall, Shopee’s Struggles, Is Fintech the Next Challenge?
  • Tencent (700 HK): 1Q23, Significant Improvements in Growth and Margin
  • [Baidu (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$178) Target Price Change]: Maintain BUY for Faster Recovery and AIGC
  • [Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$60) Target Price Change]: Cut Gaming Revenue and Margin Forecast
  • Freee: User Acquisition Strategy Paying Off
  • Arista Networks Inc.: Crushing Market Expectations But Is It Enough? – Key Drivers
  • ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.: Investments In Improved Customer Experience – Key Drivers

Alibaba Potential IPOs – Part 2 – An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
  • Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
  • In our previous note, we highlighted which division could list. In this note, we will look at Cainiao.

Canon Buyback – 18th in a Row at the Same Size, But This Time With a Running Head Start

By Travis Lundy

  • Canon has conducted 18 buybacks in the last 15 years. Every single one has been the same size. And the parameter-setting and how they are executed is… particular.
  • For those with Canon to execute, using the information about patterns may be helpful. 
  • For those interested in a trade, there may be one here.

Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers

By Simon Torring

  • Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year.
  • That’s been welcome news for shareholders of its listed parent, Sea Ltd, but more challenging for sellers on the platform who have faced lower sales growth and higher selling costs after years of heavily subsidised operations. 
  • In this blog post we report on the most important figures from Shopee’s newly published Q1-2023 results (released 16 May) as well as the key implications for e-commerce sellers in Southeast Asia.

Sea Ltd: Free Fire’s Downfall, Shopee’s Struggles, Is Fintech the Next Challenge?

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sea (SE US)‘s shares dropped by 18% as its operating profit fell short of consensus by around 60% at $125m, compared to the expected $311m.
  • Shopee’s revenue shows improvement due to increased monetization, but there are no signs of exponential growth potential in operating profit.
  • Projected decline in paying users poses further downside for Free Fire, while the previously positive fintech segment underperformed in Q1 with revenue and operating profit below expectations.

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q23, Significant Improvements in Growth and Margin

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q23, the revenue growth rose significantly to 11% YoY.
  • The operating margin also improved significantly to 24% in 1Q23 versus 17% in 1Q22.
  • We set an upside of 28% and a price target of HK$440 for yearend 2023.

[Baidu (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$178) Target Price Change]: Maintain BUY for Faster Recovery and AIGC

By Shawn Yang

  • Baidu delivered 1Q23 results with top line beat our estimate by 3.5%, and non-GAAP net income beat our estimate by 14.7%. 
  • We expect both its ads and AI cloud revenues to recover with accelerated pace, which could offset the increase of R&D spending in AIGC. 
  • Reiterate BUY rating and slightly raise TP to US$ 178 to reflect the faster recovery. Our TP implies 17.9x PE in 2023.

[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$60) Target Price Change]: Cut Gaming Revenue and Margin Forecast

By Shawn Yang

  • SE reported C1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income in-line/(37%) vs. cons., and (3.2%)/(31%) vs. our est. Profit miss is mainly due to the 53% YoY decline in game revenue
  • We suggest that 1) game development and S&M cost cutting, as well as 2) disappointing game content updates during 1Q23, lead to the weak result; 
  • In the long run, we still expect Shopee growth to be SE’s major issue, as TikTok continues to grow rapidly. We maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 60.

Freee: User Acquisition Strategy Paying Off

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • freee (4478 JP) reported 3QFY06/2023 results. Revenue increased 39.5% YoY to ¥5.1bn (vs consensus ¥4.9bn) while adj. operating losses increased to ¥1.9bn (vs consensus ¥1.9bn) from ¥676m in 3QFY03/2022.
  • Widened operating losses is no big surprise as freee had already guided for increased investments related to invoicing system and tax filing season which has helped increase paying user numbers.
  • As we continue to emphasise, freee’s business model is superior to that of MF who has resorted to several mediocre businesses (non-BA SAAS) to pursue aggressive top line growth.

Arista Networks Inc.: Crushing Market Expectations But Is It Enough? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arista Networks delivered strong results in the quarter, with $1.35 billion in revenue and $1.43 in non-GAAP earnings per share, crushing market expectations.
  • Throughout this year, Arista anticipates seeing increases in its gross margins every quarter.
  • We give Arista Networks a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.: Investments In Improved Customer Experience – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ZoomInfo Technologies achieved better-than-expected revenues and profitability in Q1 with an adjusted operating income margin of 40% and more than $121 million in unleveraged free cash flow.
  • Moreover, ZoomInfo is investing resources in products to develop engaging customer experiences, enhance data leadership, and go upmarket.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Alibaba (ADR), AEM, Tencent, Centralnic, Cisco Systems, Hua Hong Semiconductor and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA US): Buy Ahead of March Quarter Results This Thursday
  • AEM Holding: Weak 1Q23 Not a Surprise, Hoping for Better FY24
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May
  • CentralNic Group – Cash allocated to deliver on objectives
  • Cisco: Quarterly Earnings, Guidance And What To Look For
  • [Hua Hong (1347 HK) Earnings Review]: Capacity Ramp and High LIBOR Impact Profitability
  • Tencent Announced Game Pipeline in Annual Conference “Spark 2023”, and Our Estimations

Alibaba (BABA US): Buy Ahead of March Quarter Results This Thursday

By Eric Chen

  • We believe BABA’s upcoming 4QFY23 results will surprise the market to the upside by a wide margin in terms of recovery in bottomline, catalyzing trading opportunity for short-term investors.
  • We also expect that the results will usher in a period of sustained re-rating for the stock due to China’s continued yet slow consumption recovery and Alibaba’s well-executed restructuring plan.
  • Geo-Political risks will not go away, but have been very much reflected in current pricing in our view. Buy ahead of results on Thursday.

AEM Holding: Weak 1Q23 Not a Surprise, Hoping for Better FY24

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM reported weak 1Q23 showing significant revenue and margin pressure across the board
  • The company mentioned it was an indirect beneficiary of AI and ChatGPT hype going forward
  • AEM could achieve 0.40 EPS in FY24 once the semiconductor industry rebounds. Fair Value of 6 SGD is unchanged.

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Our multi-quarter outlook for Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) remains extremely bullish with a multi-quarter target towards 451.95. In April we identified the 302/330 range as a potential buy zone.
  • The recent low of 323.20 has preceded an impulsive bullish daily confirmation. This week we await a bullish weekly close (above 343.99) to confirm a renewed MT uptrend bias.

CentralNic Group – Cash allocated to deliver on objectives

By Edison Investment Research

CentralNic’s Q123 results showed robust revenue and profit growth, as well as a further deleveraging of its balance sheet. Its product comparison business VGL’s entry into France provides a strong organic growth opportunity, with potential to expand into other regions. The group continues to showcase its commitment to shareholder returns with its latest share buyback programme.


Cisco: Quarterly Earnings, Guidance And What To Look For

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Cisco is about to report its Q3 2023 results, but the market does not seem to fully appreciate the business momentum.
  • Decisions regarding capital allocation could give us some valuable clues on where is the business headed, says CNN’s John Sutter.
  • The company is expected to report Q32023 results on Thursday.

[Hua Hong (1347 HK) Earnings Review]: Capacity Ramp and High LIBOR Impact Profitability

By Shawn Yang

  • Hua Hong reported C1Q23 top-line, IFRS EBIT, and non-IFRS net income in-line, (15.3%), and 13.3% vs. our est., and in-line, (3.4%), and 34.9% vs. cons., respectively. 
  • Hua Hong reported 1Q23 utilization rate of 103%, higher than peers, which we believe is due to (1) large EV and new energy exposure, and (2) 8” price cuts. 
  • Despite near-term margin deterioration, we maintain Hua Hong’s BUY and HK$ 35 TP due to auto IC exposure and localization, implying 11x FY24 PE.

Tencent Announced Game Pipeline in Annual Conference “Spark 2023”, and Our Estimations

By Shawn Yang

  • On May 15th, Tencent holds its annual game conference “Spark 2023” and releases its latest game pipeline, including updates of 15 launched games and 20 new games.
  • Considering Tencent’s large size, only a game that has the potential to exceed RMB 10 bn in annual gross billing could be considered as a positive sign.
  • Yet, we don’t find any game title that could reach over RMB 10bn annualized gross billing in the game pipeline.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sea , Appier Group, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd: Facing an Uphill Battle for Sustainable Profits
  • Appier (4180) | Another Positive Quarter
  • Hua Hong Semi (1347.HK) Q1’23 Revenue US$630.8 Million, Flat QoQ, +6.1% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ
  • [SMIC (981 HK, BUY, TP HK$24) Earnings Review]: Localization Beginning to Bear Fruit

Sea Ltd: Facing an Uphill Battle for Sustainable Profits

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sea (SE US) may achieve around $3.0 billion in 1Q23 revenue, in line with consensus, but is likely to miss the consensus OP estimate of $309 million by approximately 10%.
  • Shopee’s profitability is at risk without sustained revenue growth. If the cost-cutting strategy persists, losses are expected by 3Q23 or possibly sooner with a strategy shift.
  • Amid Free Fire’s decline and Shopee’s potential losses, the fintech business stands as the sole bright spot.

Appier (4180) | Another Positive Quarter

By Mark Chadwick

  • Appier achieved 32% revenue growth and 50.1% gross margin in Q1 FY23, exceeding company expectations
  • We expect the pace of growth to accelerate, driven by stronger momentum in Digital Content in Q2 and Q3
  • We remain bullish following the recent pullback in the share price. Stock is attractive at 5x EV/Rev

Hua Hong Semi (1347.HK) Q1’23 Revenue US$630.8 Million, Flat QoQ, +6.1% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of US$630.8 million, up 6.1% YoY and flat sequentially.
  • Gross margin was 32.1%, up 5.2 points YoY but down 6.1 points sequentially.
  • HH is playing a blinder through the downturn and likely beyond…

[SMIC (981 HK, BUY, TP HK$24) Earnings Review]: Localization Beginning to Bear Fruit

By Shawn Yang

  • SMIC reported C1Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT and non-IFRS net profit 4.7%, 17% and 75% vs. our est., and 1.9%, (19.5%), and 25% vs. cons。 
  • We expect 1Q23 to be the bottom for SMIC, improving quarterly on the back (1) IC supply chain localization, and (2) domestic economic improvement. 
  • Despite high-inventory levels at most clients, SMIC continues to receive wafer orders for new IC products. We maintain BUY rating and HK$ 24 TP.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Daejoo Electronic Materials, Travelsky Technology Ltd H, Asustek Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Near Intelligence and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • The Core of CFD Margin Call Risk May Lie in the JPM Counter, Not SG: Potentially Infected Names
  • Travelsky (696): The Ignored Travel Stock of China
  • Long Acer Vs. Short Asustek: 6.9% Performance in One Week, Can REVERSE the Trade Again
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Market Bottoming, AMAT, Quanta Outperforms Peers, Samsung Tesla Meeting
  • Hon Hai Sees Computing Products Rebound, PC Market Bottomed; EV Expanding
  • ASUS Q1’23 Revenues NT$ 102,376 Million,- 13% QoQ & -20% YoY. PC Segment to Grow ~20% in Q2’23
  • Near and Clear

The Core of CFD Margin Call Risk May Lie in the JPM Counter, Not SG: Potentially Infected Names

By Sanghyun Park

  • The possibility of experiencing a CFD margin call is a genuine and persistent concern. Even a small trigger causes selling pressure to intensify and results in a rapid downward trend.
  • The counter that the local market is closely monitoring is JPM. The selling pressure from the JPM counter since May 8th has exhibited an abnormal pattern. 
  • Eight names are screened. They are KOSPI 200/KOSDAQ 150 constituents with JPM’s net selling volume to SO being 0.2% or higher, and a margin-equity ratio of 3% or higher.

Travelsky (696): The Ignored Travel Stock of China

By Henry Soediarko

  • Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) is the IT provider for airports in China thus it should be one of the stocks to benefit from China’s reopening.
  • Despite already operating at a profit, the share price is still lagging behind the other travel-related names that are still loss-making.
  • Its operating numbers have already reached the 2019 level, a pre-COVID era, thus the opportunity to rebound is abundant. 

Long Acer Vs. Short Asustek: 6.9% Performance in One Week, Can REVERSE the Trade Again

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Since we released our piece suggesting closing our original Long Asustek vs. Short Acer, and reversing to Long ACER vs. Short Asustek, this new trade has earned a 6.9% spread.
  • Given the latest performance between the two shares and the latest results from Asustek, we believe one can now close out Long Acer/Short Asustek… and reverse the trade again.
  • Hence we now like Long Asustek vs. Short Acer based on relative share performance and latest guidance from Asustek.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Market Bottoming, AMAT, Quanta Outperforms Peers, Samsung Tesla Meeting

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • This week is relatively in terms of earnings. Applied Materials (AMAT US) will however be reporting on the 18th U.S. time.
  • Hon Hai sees the PC market bottoming; Separately, we’ve closed our Long Acer vs. Short Asus and reversed it to Long Asus vs. Short Acer again.
  • Quant shares have surged post results, dramatically outperforming Apple and other key Apple suppliers.

Hon Hai Sees Computing Products Rebound, PC Market Bottomed; EV Expanding

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • In our view, Hon Hai 3Q23 results showcased stability for 2023E ahead of expected growth in 2024E-2025E.
  • The company has maintained its 2025E 10% gross margin target and highlighted how its EV business expansion is continuing.
  • While Consumer Electronics revenue is expected to fall this year, PC Products is expected to grow given the company believes the PC market has bottomed. Stay Long Hon Hai.

ASUS Q1’23 Revenues NT$ 102,376 Million,- 13% QoQ & -20% YoY. PC Segment to Grow ~20% in Q2’23

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of NT$ 102,376 million, down 13% QoQ and down 20% YoY
  • Forecasting PC segment +20% but Components segment -5% QoQ in Q2’23 
  • Outperforming both peers & the market with >50% revenues now coming from gaming…

Near and Clear

By subSPAC

  • In the digital era, data is the bedrock of decision-making, fuelling business strategies worldwide.
  • However, the tightening landscape of privacy regulations presents challenges in capturing and utilizing data, particularly for advertisers and marketing departments across industries.
  • In this complex backdrop, Near, a data intelligence startup, asserts its unique proposition of providing actionable, anonymized insights via its cloud-based AI platform.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- China Cooling?

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- China Cooling?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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