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TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Doosan Robotics, ASICLAND , Himax Technologies Inc Adr, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, 4Paradigm, Infineon Technologies , Amazon.com Inc, Cloudflare and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea NPS’s Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know
  • Trading Strategy of Doosan Robotics in the First Day of Trading Post Book Building Results
  • Asicland IPO Preview: The Only Value Chain Alliance (VCA) Company of TSMC in Korea
  • Himax Vs. Novatek Long/Short: Management Meeting; Himax Historically Cheap
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel ‘AI PC’ Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Infineon: The Potential Of Silicon Carbide
  • Amazon.com Inc.: How Is The Revenue Diversification Beyond AWS & E-Commerce Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Asicland IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Cloudflare Inc.: Beyond AI – Is Their Cloud Reigning Supreme? – Major Drivers


Korea NPS’s Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

By Sanghyun Park

  • The proposal to increase NPS’s annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.
  • It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.
  • Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.

Trading Strategy of Doosan Robotics in the First Day of Trading Post Book Building Results

By Douglas Kim

  • Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 26,000 won (upper end of the IPO price range). 
  • A total of 1,920 institutional investors participated in the IPO demand forecast survey and the demand ratio was 272 to 1. 
  • The trading strategy on the first day of IPO is to take some profits (25%-50% of total) if the share price shoots much higher than the IPO price by 70-100%+.

Asicland IPO Preview: The Only Value Chain Alliance (VCA) Company of TSMC in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Asicland is one of eight companies in the world and the only TSMC VCA (Value Chain Alliance) company in Korea.
  • The IPO price range is from 19,100 won to 21,400 won. The IPO offering amount is from 50.4 billion won to 56.4 billion won. 
  • Asicland’s sales and operating profit increased at a CAGR of 71.8% and 220%, respectively from 2020 to 2022. Operating margin improved from 4.7% in 2020 to 16.5% in 2022.

Himax Vs. Novatek Long/Short: Management Meeting; Himax Historically Cheap

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Himax shares have been in downtrend recently, falling 20% since the end of June vs. Novatek up 12%. We met with the Himax for an update.
  • Himax at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, both are exposed to similar display end-markets. Himax trades at just 1x sales on an absolute basis.
  • We have a Structural Long view for both stocks, however from an arb perspective see a Long Himax vs. Short Novatek trade opportunity given the large share price divergence.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel ‘AI PC’ Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Intel kicked off its Innovation conference and announced that its new PC processors with built-in AI coprocessors would launch December 14th. This is positive for the PC supply chain.
  • Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow’s AI PC killer apps could be in plain sight.
  • Himax Long vs. Novatek Short. Himax is at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, yet both are exposed to similar display end-markets.

4Paradigm IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$144 million.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in 4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case and 4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case
  • In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of HK$55.60-61.16 per share is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.

Infineon: The Potential Of Silicon Carbide

By Alexis Dwek

  • We reiterate our buy case on Infineon.  The investment case just gets more exiting at these levels
  • Infineon is in an excellent position to capture growth in silicon carbide, now expanding in Kulin with Phase II. 
  • The Company could generated €7bn in revenues by the end of the decade (up from €3bn) from Silicon Carbide.

Amazon.com Inc.: How Is The Revenue Diversification Beyond AWS & E-Commerce Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amazon.com, Inc. delivered positive results and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • The company has reported revenue of $134.4 billion and operating income of $7.7 billion.
  • These are significant contributing causes to AWS’s recent growth and the over twofold increase in revenue over other service providers.

Asicland IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Asicland is target price of 40,571 won per share, which is 90% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (21,400 won). 
  • Our target price of 40,571 won is based on 43x P/E using our estimated net profit of 10.1 billion won in 2024. 
  • Asicland is one of eight companies in the world and the only TSMC VCA (Value Chain Alliance) company in Korea.

Cloudflare Inc.: Beyond AI – Is Their Cloud Reigning Supreme? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cloudflare, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • The second quarter’s total revenue reached 32% year over year to $308.5 million.
  • In the quarter, Cloudflare received 10 million active worker applications, a 250% increase since December and a 490% increase year over year.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SK Telecom, Keep Inc, 4Paradigm, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Dropbox Inc, Esker SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Analyzing Proactive Flow Trading Targeting SK Telecom’s Passive Movements
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December
  • 4Paradigm IPO – PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation
  • Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread In Clear Downtrend; UMC & ASE Corporate Days Could Support
  • Dropbox Inc.: The Skyrocketing Potential of AI and New High-Value Products! – Major Drivers
  • Esker – Working to balance investment and profitability


Analyzing Proactive Flow Trading Targeting SK Telecom’s Passive Movements

By Sanghyun Park

  • As of last Friday, SKT has utilized 86.2 billion won out of the allotted 300 billion won for share buybacks, resulting in the acquisition of 1,810,242 shares.
  • If there are indications of the foreign room potentially falling to a risky level, SKT will likely proceed with an aggressive buyback, targeting 20-30% of the daily trading volume.
  • Another particularly intriguing observation is the absence of local retail flow directed towards SKT. This indicates there is still potential momentum for an upward price movement at this juncture.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December

By Brian Freitas

  • There have only been 7 new listings on the HKEX (388 HK) in the third quarter of the year so far.
  • Of those stocks, only Keep Inc (3650 HK) has a chance of being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in December and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Keep Inc (3650 HK) is the largest online fitness platform in China and the name recognition could bring in substantial flows via Southbound Stock Connect.

4Paradigm IPO – PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.
  • 4P is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC.
  • In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance and refiling updates. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates, peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread In Clear Downtrend; UMC & ASE Corporate Days Could Support

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s ADR premium/discount appears to have shown a clear decline in trading range recently, down from the 10% level.
  • UMC & ASE joined corporate days today in Taipei, which could be supportive of their premiums in the near-term.
  • We provide spread levels we view as compelling from a risk/reward perspective.

Dropbox Inc.: The Skyrocketing Potential of AI and New High-Value Products! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Dropbox, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, driven by FormSwift’s revenue growth and some improvement in the company’s SKUs, as the development it observed in late Q1 carried over into Q2.
  • In the quarter, the company launched Dropbox AI.
  • Furthermore, Dropbox introduced a new activation homepage to simplify admins setting up their teams and becoming familiar with the product.

Esker – Working to balance investment and profitability

By Edison Investment Research

In H123 Esker reported strong growth in revenue (+16% y-o-y in constant currency (cc)) and bookings (+18% y-o-y cc) but this was outweighed by increases in costs, resulting in an operating margin decline. The company is taking measures to counter this, both in its contract pricing and by slowing the pace of hiring. While FY23 revenue outlook is unchanged, management reduced the mid-point of operating margin guidance by 1% to 12%. We have conservatively reduced our operating profit forecasts, which for FY23 were at the upper end of the new guidance range.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: China Mobile, SK Telecom, Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (15-Sep):  Utilities, Insurance, China Mobile, BYD
  • SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows
  • Intel’s Data Centre Meltdown


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (15-Sep):  Utilities, Insurance, China Mobile, BYD

By Travis Lundy

  • The Brand-Spanking New (6 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it and decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 41 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last five weeks (since the instantiation of the new Monitor and Portfolio 6 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%.

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.
  • Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. SK Telecom (017670 KS) has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.
  • Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.

Intel’s Data Centre Meltdown

By William Keating

  • Year to date, Intel’s data center revenues are down 28% YoY. 
  • By comparison, AMD’s year-to-date revenues are down just 6% YoY
  • Why is AMD performing so much better than Intel in the data center and will their market share growth continue?

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Softbank Group, Eoptolink Technology , Foxconn Industrial Internet, Klaviyo and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F
  • ECM Weekly (17th Sep 2023) – ARM, VNG, Doosan, Tuhu, IMotion, Seibu Giken, RR Kabel, Viva, Innovent
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50: A Potential Basket Trade
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: US$937mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations
  • Klaviyo IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: A Fast-Growing Marketing Automation Unicorn


TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F

By Patrick Liao

  • We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC.
  • Due to the ramping up of production for 3nm, the GM is expected to decrease by 2-3%. However, there is an policy to add up at least 2% for TSMC. 
  • The CoWoS is still being closely watched because of NVDA’s demand, and it will take time to get TSMC ready to satisfy the likely demand for CoWoS.

ECM Weekly (17th Sep 2023) – ARM, VNG, Doosan, Tuhu, IMotion, Seibu Giken, RR Kabel, Viva, Innovent

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, ARM’s IPO seems to have set the ball rolling for the traditionally busy year end across the region.
  • In the placement space, finally a Hong Kong placement mangaed to hold up, even as a large Aussie one gave way.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50: A Potential Basket Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELETEs in the December 2023 Rebalance.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: US$937mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
  • I currently expect 5 ADDs/DELETEs for the SSE 50 index 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. Some of these names are different from my previous expectations.

Klaviyo IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: A Fast-Growing Marketing Automation Unicorn

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Klaviyo, a Shopify-powered marketing automation platform provider for SMBs, mid-market, and B2B companies, filed to go public and plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange.
  • The fast-growing company was backed by Summit Partners, Shopify, and top-tier VC firms, including Accomplice, Accel, Sands Capital Ventures, Astral Capital, Cross Creek, and W Ventures.
  • Klaviyo is expected to IPO next week. S-1/A put the price range at $25-$27, implying a market cap of $6.5B at the midpoint, or $8.4B on a fully diluted basis. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Anycolor , XL Axiata, ByteDance, Huawei Technology, Pegasystems Inc, Epsilon Net, Xerox Holdings , Broadcom and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Anycolor (5032) – Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Linked Up for Future Growth
  • TikTok Launches In-App Shopping Feature in the U.S.
  • Huawei Tech-Powered EV Brand Rolls Out Upgraded Luxury SUV
  • Pegasystems Inc.: Their Focus on Pega Cloud ACV is Rewriting the Rulebook! – Major Drivers
  • Company Update – Epsilon Net S.A.
  • Xerox Holdings Corporation: Decoding Their Strategy to Slash Costs & Gain A Strong Position In Cloud Print! – Major Drivers
  • Broadcom Inc.: Understanding Their Recent Networking Boom and Beyond! – Major Drivers


Anycolor (5032) – Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.

By Travis Lundy

  • Nine months ago I first wrote on Anycolor (5032 JP). I thought the guidance growth pattern and valuations remarkable. Results handily beat guidance. Now we’re in Year 2 of guidance.
  • After the first full year listed, FY2024 guidance was for +30% in revenue to ¥33bn, and +35% growth in OP. For Q1, reported yesterday, actual results were +51% and +91%.
  • The stock is popping this AM, but it is still cheap vs growth rates and margins. There are, notably, still “context issues” here. They merit some consideration (and investigation).

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Linked Up for Future Growth

By Angus Mackintosh

  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) continues to impress with its growth in revenues and data, driven by its 4G focus and high-quality network, with improving margins at the same time.
  • The XL convergence story continues to build, with convergence penetration increasing but the real kicker wILL come once the restructuring with Link Net completes but benefits are already accruing. 
  • XL Axiata remains the purest data player in Indonesia, with convergence set to be the next driver. Valuations are attractive on 4.4x FY2024E EV/EBITDA with strong growth ahead. 

TikTok Launches In-App Shopping Feature in the U.S.

By Caixin Global

  • In the face of mounting American political and regulatory pressure, the Chinese video app TikTok officially launched an online shopping feature in the U.S., aiming to cash in on its popularity among 150 million American users.
  • TikTok Shop will give brands, merchants, and creators the tools to sell directly through content on the app, the ByteDance Ltd.-owned enterprise said in a press release.
  • Users will now find a “Shop” button prominently displayed in certain videos and can buy tagged products directly from videos and livestreaming.

Huawei Tech-Powered EV Brand Rolls Out Upgraded Luxury SUV

By Caixin Global

  • Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and its auto partner Seres Group Co. Ltd. (601127.SH +10.01%) launched an upgraded version of the Aito M7 electric SUV on Tuesday, marking the latest push by the tech giant into China’s highly competitive auto market.
  • With a starting price of 249,800 yuan ($34,280), deliveries of the luxury electric vehicle (EV) will begin immediately, Huawei said in a press release. The company is also offering a discount of 33,000 yuan to customers who place their orders before Oct. 7.
  • The model, which comes in five variants, is also equipped with Huawei ADS 2.0, the latest generation of its automated driving software and a digital cockpit powered by its Harmony operating system, the company said.

Pegasystems Inc.: Their Focus on Pega Cloud ACV is Rewriting the Rulebook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Pegasystems delivered disappointing results as the company could not meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Pega achieved a remarkable feat in the first half of 2023 by producing $114 million in cash flow from operations and $123 million in free cash flow.
  • The free cash flow dollars produced in the first half of the year was $123 million.

Company Update – Epsilon Net S.A.

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • EPSILON NET is a leading provider of Information Technology and related services in the Greek market.
  • With its broad portfolio of software applications and IT systems, the Company generates revenues from the segments of ERP, Accounting, HR, E-Invoicing and Educational Services.
  • EPSILON NET operates via 24 subsidiaries while it has a workforce of 1,200 employees and a network of +500 partners / resellers. 

Xerox Holdings Corporation: Decoding Their Strategy to Slash Costs & Gain A Strong Position In Cloud Print! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Xerox Holdings Corporation delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • This quarter, Quocirca recognized Xerox as a leader in cloud print services, recognizing the company for its breadth of customer service as well as its strategic vision.
  • Xerox Holdings received the renewal of a leading healthcare service company this quarter, boosting the yearly contract value by about 40%.

Broadcom Inc.: Understanding Their Recent Networking Boom and Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Infrastructure software revenue increased 5% yearly to 9 billion, while semiconductor solutions revenue gained 5% yearly to $6.9 billion.
  • Wireless revenue accounted for 24% of semiconductor revenue in the quarter and was up 4% sequentially but flat yearly.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ARM Holdings, SK Square , AAC Technologies Holdings, NEC Corp, Snap , Constellation Software /Can, Nutanix Inc, SenSen Networks, PagerDuty Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • ARM Holdings IPO Trading – Sold Hope, Now for Some Reality
  • ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?
  • SK Square: Will Alibaba Acquire 11st?
  • Asia Trade Book – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • NEC (6701 JP): Enough for Now
  • Snap-on Inc: A Look at Their Strategic INDYCAR & Indianapolis Collaborations – Major Drivers
  • Company Update – Constellation Software Inc.
  • Nutanix Inc.: Can The GPT-In-A-Box Become A Pivotal Turning Point For The Company? – Key Drivers
  • SenSen Networks – Targeting multiple areas to achieve profitability
  • PagerDuty Inc.: Why Major Firms are Betting Big on Their Cloud Offering – Major Drivers


ARM Holdings IPO Trading – Sold Hope, Now for Some Reality

By Sumeet Singh

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)‘ US IPO.
  • ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?

By Arun George


SK Square: Will Alibaba Acquire 11st?

By Douglas Kim

  • Maeil Business Daily reported that Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) is considering on acquiring a controlling stake in 11st, which is a leading e-commerce platform owned by SK Square
  • In 2018, 11st was valued at 2.7 trillion won by financial investors. However, the current valuation of 11st is estimated to have declined to about 1 trillion won (US$760 million).
  • We estimate that the probability of Alibaba acquiring 11st is about 60-70%. 

Asia Trade Book – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Trade Book for September 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.


NEC (6701 JP): Enough for Now

By Scott Foster

  • NEC’ is up almost 90% year-to-date to 16X EPS guidance for this fiscal year and 12x targeted EPS three years out. It now looks fairly valued.
  • Profit growth is led by IT Services for the private and public sectors, with strength in finance and system integration. 
  • Social Infrastructure is growing, but in the red. Aerospace and national security are profitable, but margins are low.

Snap-on Inc: A Look at Their Strategic INDYCAR & Indianapolis Collaborations – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Snap-on Incorporated achieved decent growth in both sales and profitability in its most recent result.
  • Moreover, Snap-on’s success in the Tools Group highlighted its ability to innovate and cater to customer needs effectively.
  • Snap-on’s customization and profitability, particularly in low-volume production, have been a driving force behind its growth.

Company Update – Constellation Software Inc.

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Our estimations for FY 2023 annual revenue range at around $8,023 million and for 2024 at around $9,219 million.
  • The company’s annual revenue reached $6,622 million in 2022 compared to $5,106 million in 2021, post- ing an increase by 29.69%.
  • Constellation Software’s gross profit for FY 2022 was $2,271 million, increased by 44.74% compared to $1,569 million for the corresponding period of 2021.

Nutanix Inc.: Can The GPT-In-A-Box Become A Pivotal Turning Point For The Company? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nutanix Inc. managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Notably, the company outperformed all guided metrics, achieving robust ACV billings growth and quarterly revenue.
  • Additionally, the company generated significant free cash flow growth compared to the previous fiscal year.

SenSen Networks – Targeting multiple areas to achieve profitability

By Edison Investment Research

SenSen’s FY23 preliminary results show robust revenue growth, albeit missing our forecasts slightly. Losses narrowed year-on-year from efficiency initiatives. The strategic shift towards more predictable opex and cloud contracts continues to improve the revenue mix. Margin expansion is expected in FY24 following efficiency measures, with potential for cash flow positivity. Valuation remains at a discount to peers despite SenSen being one of the few with a positive FY24 EBITDA forecast.


PagerDuty Inc.: Why Major Firms are Betting Big on Their Cloud Offering – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PagerDuty Inc. managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street with a 19% revenue increase and a 13% non-GAAP operating margin.
  • The company’s profitable growth was evident as the year-over-year operating margin expanded by a significant 1,700 basis points.
  • Notable organizations like Banco Santander, Cisco Systems, Confluent, Grammarly, DocuSign, HubSpot, and NVIDIA selected PagerDuty as their real-time operations platform.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Z Holdings, Mediatek Inc, 4Paradigm, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Nokia OYJ, Spectur Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Yahoo Troubles Continue for Z Holdings
  • Mediatek Downgrade: After Rally, Beware Emerging News of Huawei/SMIC Chip Capability
  • 4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Accelerating to India; ARM IPO; Huawei Mediatek Market Risk; Intel AI PCs
  • Nokia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Spectur Limited – Supplying Surveillance Solutions for People/Assets


Yahoo Troubles Continue for Z Holdings

By Michael Causton

  • GTVs for Yahoo’s shopping division fell by 8% in 1Q2023. 
  • Although this was expected and gross profits did improve, the downturn reflects deeper concerns.
  • Even the group’s Zozo fashion platform are much more slowly.

Mediatek Downgrade: After Rally, Beware Emerging News of Huawei/SMIC Chip Capability

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Mediatek shares rallied recently on high volume and are approaching their 52-week highs. We however warn investors to beware emerging news of Huawei/SMIC’s chip capabilities.
  • Mediatek announced last week its flagship mobile phone chip was preparing for high volume manufacturing with TSMC’s most advanced 3-nanometer process node.
  • However, we believe Huawei’s recent Mate 60 chip development could pose a threat to Mediatek’s market share outlook. We downgrade our rating from Structural Long to Neutral, target price NT$815.

4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.
  • In 4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash collection cycle and BIS entity list designation. 

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Accelerating to India; ARM IPO; Huawei Mediatek Market Risk; Intel AI PCs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • India Supply Chain Rising — Hon Hai is helping Apple launch with India-made iPhone 15’s on Day 1. These days, Apple likely wants to diversify away from China even faster.
  • ARM IPO prices at high end of range, is backed by TSMC, Apple, Nvidia, Samsung, Intel.
  • We downgrade Mediatek: After rally, beware of Huawei/SMIC chip capabilities causing market to realize Mediatek could lose market share.

Nokia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Nokia’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Environmental and Social pillars. The company has a “Strong” score for the Governance pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Spectur Limited – Supplying Surveillance Solutions for People/Assets

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Spectur Limited (ASX:SP3) is a surveillance technology company providing security, safety, environmental monitoring and visual AI solutions to watch and act on assets managed by its platform.
  • The company develops, manufactures and sells solar- and battery-powered, remotely-connected hardware, which is driven by SP3’s firmware, software, cloud and web-apps, providing data and solutions to its customers.
  • The company has more than 2,900 devices deployed to greater than 600 customers, with a plurality in Western Australia, where it is headquartered. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Alibaba (ADR), ARM Holdings, 4Paradigm, Paytm, Intel Corp, China Unicom Hong Kong, Banijay Group, MongoDB , Workday Inc Class A and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba: Daniel Zhang Shown The Door, Jack Ma Back In The Game
  • ARM IPO Breakdown
  • 4Paradigm IPO: PHIP Updates
  • [Week 2] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Withdrawing Disclosures
  • Intel Foundry Chief Unveils His Strategy
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)
  • 4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case
  • Banijay – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • MongoDB Inc.: Targeting The Public Sector With MongoDB Atlas! – Major Drivers
  • Workday Inc.: 4 Major Factors Driving Their Growth! – Financial Forecasts


Alibaba: Daniel Zhang Shown The Door, Jack Ma Back In The Game

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • News broke yesterday that Daniel Zhang is no longer leading Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)‘s Cloud Business unit.
  • The statement from Alibaba’s current chairman, in which he mentions that Zhang would “switch to a different approach and continue to fight alongside us at Alibaba” raises skepticism.
  • We also think that the $1.0bn Alibaba committed to a technology fund could be seen as a form of compensation to ensure Daniel Zhang’s silence.

ARM IPO Breakdown

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
  • I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
  • So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.

4Paradigm IPO: PHIP Updates

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • 4Paradigm is a pioneer and leader in enterprise AI. The company offers platform-centric AI solutions to enterprises that can be deployed on a large scale to support decision making.
  • The company’s application for HKEx IPO has been approved and this insight focuses on new data points from the company’s latest PHIP release (dated 07th Sep 2023).
  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) revenues have continued to expand with significant reduction in operating losses, and we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects.

[Week 2] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Withdrawing Disclosures

By Pranav Bhavsar


Intel Foundry Chief Unveils His Strategy

By William Keating

  • It’s a “show me the money” versus a “build it and they will come” approach
  • New fab construction will be based solely on customer commitments.
  • It’s a curiously cautious plan and highly unlikely to succeed

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)

By Brian Freitas

  • Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) is a potential deletion in December and that could result in China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) being added to the index.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.36% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$845m. Passives will need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks.
  • There is a very small impact on the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures but there will be a larger impact on the dividend futures expiring in 2024.

4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.  
  • 4Paradigm was the largest player by revenue in China’s platform-centric decision-making AI market with a market share of 22.6% in 2022, according to CIC. 
  • The bull case rests on the success in increasing key account customer numbers, net dollar expansion rates, improving revenue visibility, strong growth in application development services and reducing loss margin.

Banijay – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Banijay’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores, while the Environmental pillar is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” but Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Banijay creates and distributes content for television and multimedia platforms. It was founded in 2008 by Stephane Courbit, and has since grown through a string of acquisitions.

MongoDB Inc.: Targeting The Public Sector With MongoDB Atlas! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MongoDB managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company exceeded the high end of its projection and achieved revenue of $424 million, a 40% year-over-year increase.
  • Atlas sales increased 38% year over year, accounting for 63% of revenue, and is now a product with a run rate of more than $1 billion.

Workday Inc.: 4 Major Factors Driving Their Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Workday exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue and earnings, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 24%, subscription revenue growth of 19%, and a 24-month backlog increase of 23%.
  • Early renewals exceeded Workday’s expectations in the quarter and increased the 24-month backlog by nearly 1.5 percentage points.
  • Workday’s team anticipates increasing their forecast for subscription revenue for FY 2024 to a new range of $6.57 billion to $6.59 billion, representing an 18% yearly increase.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: CELSYS, VNG (VinaGame), Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023)
  • VNG Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Intel’s Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It ‘Cool’ Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA


VNG Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO.
  • VNG is Vietnam’s leading homegrown digital ecosystem, as per the company, with diverse product offerings across games, communications and media, fintech and other opportunities.
  • We looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Intel’s Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It ‘Cool’ Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Intel’s upcoming Meteor Lake family of chips will include a new specific component specifically for running AI processes locally on PCs.
  • Meteor Lake will enable mass market adoption of AI PCs by providing a platform for developers to create more advanced AI PC applications than are currently possible.
  • Meteor Lake’s launch could start by end-October. Intel’s Innovation conference September 19-20th will likely add visibility. Intel’s potential supports a Long thesis for Taiwan’s PC supply chain.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Salesforce.Com Inc, Splunk Inc, Crowdstrike Holdings , Freshworks, Marvell Technology , Alteryx Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Salesforce Inc.: Can The New Starter CRM Put Salesforce On A Different Level Of Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Splunk Inc.: Strategic Partnership with Microsoft & Other Major Drivers
  • CrowdStrike Holdings: Can The Launch Of Counter Adversary Operations Become A Revenue Driver? – Major Drivers
  • Freshworks: 2023 Investor Day and Valuation Update
  • Marvell Technology: Will The Launch Of COLORZ 800 Have A Significant Impact On Future Revenues? – Major Drivers
  • Alteryx Inc.: On the Precipice of a Game-changing Acquisition? – Major Drivers


Salesforce Inc.: Can The New Starter CRM Put Salesforce On A Different Level Of Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Salesforce delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • The company’s non-GAAP operating margin increased in the quarter.
  • Salesforce also had fantastic victories throughout the quarter with JPMorgan, Bayer, FedEx, Maersk, as well as the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Splunk Inc.: Strategic Partnership with Microsoft & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Splunk Inc. delivered a decent result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, marked by solid execution, operational discipline, and favorable customer engagement.
  • Total revenue experienced a healthy year-over-year increase, demonstrating Splunk’s ability to achieve this growth while managing costs underscores its strategic approach.
  • Additionally, Splunk continued to innovate by leveraging AI in security and observability, introducing the concept of Splunk AI to empower organizations to detect, investigate, and respond more efficiently.

CrowdStrike Holdings: Can The Launch Of Counter Adversary Operations Become A Revenue Driver? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CrowdStrike Holdings managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • The company outperformed top and bottom line metrics expectations, achieving strong, scalable growth, amazing leverage, and operating within its target model overall.
  • CrowdStrike also successfully implemented a go-to-market strategy centered on cloud security this past quarter, hosting a virtual cloud security summit with over 12,500 security and DevOp attendees, followed by cloud-focused partner and sales plays.

Freshworks: 2023 Investor Day and Valuation Update

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Freshworks, a cloud-based customer services software unicorn, held its first Investor Day on September 7, 2023. Management highlighted the long-term target to deliver the Rule of 40 by 2025. 
  • The 2023 Investor Day agenda included company vision and strategy, solutions in action, strategy for durable growth, customer spotlight, and financial overview, among others. 
  • Management plans to deliver a long-term balance of growth and profitability, with the 2026 model leading to an FCF margin of 20%+ and $1B+ revenue. 

Marvell Technology: Will The Launch Of COLORZ 800 Have A Significant Impact On Future Revenues? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marvell Technology delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, producing $1.34 billion in revenue.
  • Revenue in their data center end market was $460 million, up 6% sequentially and significantly more than their forecast of a flat outlook.
  • Notably, revenue from cloud AI and common cloud infrastructure both increased sequentially, with AI expanding more quickly.

Alteryx Inc.: On the Precipice of a Game-changing Acquisition? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alteryx Inc, a notable player in the tech and data analytics sphere has sent ripples of excitement across the investment domain, stirred by buzz surrounding its potential sale.
  • Boasting a formidable client base of over 8,300 entities, including industry behemoths such as Coca-Cola, Vodafone, Walmart, and Ford, Alteryx has firmly entrenched its position in the data analytics industry.
  • Insider sources suggest that the company has engaged the expertise of investment banking stalwart Qatalyst Partners to steer the preliminary talks with potential suitors.

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