TMT/Internet

• Shopify Inc. has reported a strong performance for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing significant growth and expansion across several facets of its business.
• The company’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 24% for the quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of GMV growth over 20%.
• This growth was attributed to increased same-store sales among existing merchants, growth in new merchants, and international expansion, particularly in Europe.

• Kanzhun, along with Kuaishou, Beike and PDD, are we call the “Macro Mauled Champions” (MMC). We suggest long term investors to accumulate;
• Weak industrial sector earnings in October bodes ill for manufacturing hiring into C4Q24 and we think may further extend to early 2025 recruiting season;
• We expect BZ to grow profit faster than revenues on cost savings, particularly on marketing and gain shares. We cut the TP from US$19 to US$17. 

• Gross Margins Aggregate Data – Shows Taiwan Semiconductor Companies Under Pressure
• How TSMC and GlobalWafers show two very different margin environments; However everyone needs to manage rising energy costs into 2025E
• Aggregate Inventory Levels — Inventory Days Declining Trend is a Positive Sign

• TSMC: +20.4% Premium; ADR Premium is Approaching a Short Level
• UMC: +0.7% Premium; Short Interest Soars to New Two-Year Highs
• ASE: +4.2% Premium; ADR Headroom Falls to 100% Maxed Out

• Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November
• Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling — AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand
• Outlook for the Memory Market — Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade

• Microsoft, one of the world’s leading technology giants, is currently facing a comprehensive antitrust investigation by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC).
• The probe, initiated by FTC Chair Lina Khan, is examining allegations that Microsoft is potentially abusing its market power in productivity software and cloud computing.
• Specifically, the FTC is scrutinizing the company’s software licensing practices, which may be preventing customers from moving their data from Microsoft’s Azure cloud service to competing platforms.

• Shift4 Payments reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, emphasizing both its achievements and areas that need improvement.
• The company set quarterly records for several key performance indicators (KPIs), including volume, gross revenue less network fees, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow.
• The adjusted EBITDA margin reached a new quarterly high of 51.3%, or nearly 54% excluding impacts from recent acquisitions.

• Skyworks Solutions posted robust performance during the fourth fiscal quarter of 2024, marked by revenues of $1.025 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.55, aligning with or surpassing prior guidance midpoints.
• The company generated $393 million in free cash flow, continuing its trend of strong cash generation, which for a second consecutive year surpassed $1.6 billion annually.
• This financial stability underpins investments in technology advancements and product development crucial for future growth.

• Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) gains a lifeline with the waiver of Rs. 24,700 crore bank guarantees for pre-2022 spectrum acquisitions.
• The waiver eases financial strain, boosts cash flow, and enables critical investments in 4G and 5G upgrades amidst competition from Reliance Industries (RIL IN)‘s Jio and Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN).
• While a positive step, Vi’s recovery depends on fundraising, reducing debt, and regaining market share, making its turnaround uncertain but slightly more plausible.

• BIDU reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 4.6% and 66% vs. our estimate and in-line, 8.7% and 46% vs. consensus.
• Ads revenue declined and C4Q24 guidance was below expectations. Margin improvement was mainly achieved through personnel cuts, which we think is not sustainable. AI didn’t contribute materially to revenues;
• We see no return to growth from any of the business lines. We keep our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$84 to US$78.

• The latest earnings result and call for NVIDIA Corporation (NVIDIA) indicate a period of remarkable growth and robust financial performance driven primarily by the adoption of its AI technologies and data center products.
• NVIDIA reported record revenue of $35.1 billion, which represents a 17% sequential increase and a striking 94% year-over-year growth, surpassing its revenue outlook of $32.5 billion.
• This growth spanned all market platforms, particularly fueled by the increasing demand for NVIDIA’s accelerated computing and AI solutions.

• Speculation of a Qualcomm-Intel deal diminishes, while Japan boosts semiconductor subsidies to benefit Rapidus, with further support anticipated.
• China’s semiconductor industry growth poses a threat to South Korean companies, prompting Samsung to weigh integration of ChatGPT, sparking concerns over its Google partnership.
• Hiwin bolsters its robotics presence by partnering with Boston Dynamics, expanding its influence in the industry, as India eyes doubling 5G subscriptions by 2030.

• Agora share price rallied 34% on C3Q24 earning call. During the call Agora outlined plans for large scale layoffs and committed to turn profitable for full year 2025;
• With the business rationalization, cooperation with OpenAI now becomes the only growth driver for the future. We believe with Agora’s operation-oriented business model, there is a fair chance for success;
• Considering the price cut speed of 10x in one year from Chat GPT, the audio GAI price lower from US$9/hour to US$1/hour could happen within one year.

• Visa Inc. reported strong financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year 2024, showcasing growth across multiple key performance metrics.
• The company’s net revenue for the fourth quarter was $9.6 billion, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the prior year, driven by growth in payments volume, cross-border volume, and processed transactions.
• A notable highlight is the 8% year-over-year growth in global payments volume with international payments showing a 10% increase and cross-border volumes, excluding intra-Europe, rising 13%.

• Some speed bumps at the Device segment – Continuing positive demand from the smartphone sector and sustained growth at the Eco-Solution segment were overshadowed by a loss in earnings momentum at the Devices segment in Q1-2 FY3/25.
• The recovery in demand from the industrial sector remains delayed, together with a sales mix lowering gross margins and FX impact contributing to overall OP falling 3.8% YoY, despite 11.3% sales growth driven primarily by acquisitive growth.
• The current outlook for H2 FY3/25 is assisted by the weak Japanese yen, acquisitive growth, and we expect to see a continuation of the positive demand themes from smartphone and alternative energy.

• Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
• It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we undertake a peer comparison.

• Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
• It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about valuations.

• Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.   
• Bain Capital, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Hoya Corp (7741 JP) currently own 56.23%, 40.64% and 3.13% of the voting rights, respectively. 
• The bull case rests on an attractive market opportunity, a return to revenue growth, margins close to all-time highs, a favourable cash conversion cycle, and modest leverage. 

• China announced game approval for the November batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• None of the companies that we are tracking got any approval for November batch.

• Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) ’s long waited IPO is now live and plans to raise US$700m at a much lower valuation of US$4.8bn vs price paid by Bain 6-years ago.
• The company’s IPO is very timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but margins have continued to trail peers who have a more balanced product portfolio.
• Kioxia’s valuation has declined while market sentiment for memory names has also been that great. We will discuss our valuation in a follow-up insight. 

• FY24 1H results and update on the ongoing long-term plan

• Intel is now set to receive $7.86 billion in CHIPs Act funding, down from the $8.5 billion originally touted back in March 2024
• The funding comes with a raft of restrictions and caveats regarding what happens in the event of any changes in Intel’s organizational structure and/or ownership
• The US Department of Commerce also reserves the right to withhold funding and/or weigh in on decisions around outsourcing if Intel fails to meet key, critical milestones. Ouch!

• FY24上期決算と長期計画のアップデート

• Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is a prominent data center and EV charging solution provider in Thailand.
• Rich valuation, especially against the parent company, but its PEG ratio says otherwise.
• It is proven that the share price weakness due to SET suspension is a buying opportunity.

• China smartphone market grows significantly in 3Q 2024, demonstrating strong demand for mobile devices.
• Lam Research establishes new office at Tata-PSMC wafer fab, enhancing their presence in the semiconductor industry.
• LG shifts focus to solutions over products in major restructuring, while BYD plans cost cuts in anticipation of potential tariffs.

• Kioxia has been under-investing in Capex (27% of revenue versus competitors 37%) and R&D (5% versus 11%) because Free Cash Flow is low, too low to pay back debt. 
• The Memory cycle peaked in June-24 and NAND prices have been declining since. Memory stocks (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) peaked in June. 
• The valuations multiples that reconcile with a US$4.9bn market value are half or one-third that of competitors. A huge discount is applied, reflecting the financial and technological weakness of Kioxia. 

• US Set to Unveil New Wave of Semiconductor Restrictions on China
• Hon Hai Subsidiary Says Progress for Nvidia GB200 Servers is Smooth, Mass Production in 2025E
• PC Monitor: Dell & HPQ Highlight Sharp Divide Between Corporate and Consumer PC Demand; Shares Slump 

• On Monday, I had the great pleasure to speak to Kaonavi’s (4435 JP – US$131 million) CFO, Kimitaka Hashimoto.
• He provided color on Kaonavi’s second-quarter earnings result, which were released on 13 November and led to a negative reaction from the market.
• In short, Kaonavi is a Japanese developer of talent management software. It helps companies manage their employees by solving staffing problems, designing their organizational structure, performance reviews, surveys, training, internal recruitment, etc.

• Ibotta operates a performance network connecting consumers with CPG companies and retailers for digital promotions and cashback rewards
• Despite a successful IPO, Ibotta has seen a significant derating due to failing to meet expectations
• Strong partnerships, growing user base, and unique business model suggest potential for a 56% upside towards a price target of $90 and eventually $120

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• A rare cross asset relative value opportunity; time horizon two months, market neutral, near zero-cost premium.
• The strategy exploits the historically low difference between implied volatilities for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US).
• This insight lays out trade rationale, historical context, fundamental drivers, and trade implementation. Nasdaq-100 Vega exposure provides the strategy with an extra edge and tailwind for success.

• Talabat Holding, one of the leading food delivery platforms in the MENA region, is getting ready to complete an IPO in Dubai. 
• IPO price is between AED 1.50 ($0.41) and AED 1.60 per share. At the high end of IPO price range, Talabat could raise up to AED 7.5 billion (US$2 billion).
• The final IPO offer price will be announced on Friday (29 November). This IPO is expected to start trading on 10 December. 

• India’s PC market shows growth in 3Q24, indicating signs of recovery in the industry after a challenging period.
• Taiwan’s aerospace industry experiences a surge in ambitions amidst global security worries, highlighting the region’s competitive edge.
• Samsung makes changes in leadership with new foundry CTO appointment, signaling a strategic shift in the company’s direction.

• ServiceTitan, a VC-backed cloud-based software company for the home and commercial service industries, files to go public and may raise up to $500M.
• The company serves many trades, including plumbing, HVAC, garage doors, landscaping, pest control, water treatment, heating, construction and others.
• ServiceTitan is well positioned as a leader at scale in the trade industry. They currently operate in the United States, Canada and see significant opportunity in international markets.

• Cumulative Q3 FY12/24 sales increased 52.7% YoY, with operating profit up 224.6% YoY, driven by memory probe cards.
• Segment sales reached JPY37.4bn (+53.9% YoY), with memory probe card sales at JPY11.0bn (+54.6% YoY).
• Full-year FY12/24 forecast remains unchanged, with sales progress at 70.9% and operating profit at 74.5%.

• Soft PC Results from Dell and HPQ and Delayed Industry PC Upgrades into  2025E; Dell and HPQ Shares Fall Sharply
• Conclusion: Both Firms Confirm Relative Strength for Commercial and Weakness for Consumer; AI PCs and Windows 11 to Drive 2025E Upgrades
• Asia PC Makers Showing Stronger Growth; However, Dell & HPQ Share Rout May Weigh on Sentiment

• Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
• It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Tier-2 commodity Memory is a lousy business, which requires high Capex and R&D, generates very low Free Cash Flows. DRAM is more sustainable than NAND as peak margins are higher. 
• Kioxia only makes NAND, has a high market share (16%) but is a Tier-2 supplier with a roadmap lagging SK Hynix by ~2 years, and a high exposure to Consumer. 
• The Memory cycle has recovered, probably close to peak earnings. That’s why stocks have been declining (Micron, Hynix).  Part 2 will cover financials (there’s a bad surprise) and valuations. 

• Xiaomi’s stock price has risen 62% since our buy rating after 2Q24 results.
• We believe vehicle production will bring Xiaomi a revenue of RMB90 billion maximum.
• The sum-of-the-parts valuation suggests significant downside for the next twelve months.

• Hong Kong continued a correction in its Bull market which has lifted the HSCEI to be the best performing Asian index this year.  Southboune buying is strong.
• AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) share price had a breakout relative to the MSCI AC Asia Index.  The company reported solid results benifitting from the smartphone and auto sectors.
• CGN Power (1816 HK) share price relative to MSCI China broke down.  The company reported a disappointing 3Q24 results even as power generation increased by 15% YoY for the period.

• TSMC: +19.2% Premium; Middle of Most Recent ADR Spread Trading Range
• UMC: -1.7% Discount; Local Shares’ Short Interest Continues to Rise
• ASE: +4.0% Premium; Local Shares’ Short Interest Has Finally Stopped Rising

• Delta Thailand Still Grossly Overvalued Even After Recent Correction; Under Market Surveillance Until December 11th
• Delta Taiwan’s Market Cap Remains at Just 57% of Delta Thailand
• Further Valuation Correction Likely Between the Two Names; We Believe Delta Taiwan Should Outperform

• Former TSMC chairman Mark Liu believes Taiwan’s chip industry is unaffected by Trump’s trade policy, showing confidence in the sector.
• DIGITIMES Research predicts a 3.6% CAGR growth in global smartphone shipments from 2024-2029, indicating steady expansion.
• Despite potential US bans and chip supply halts, Huawei remains dedicated to developing advanced technology, including AI chips.

• Trustpilot is a leading online consumer review platform with a strong presence in Europe and North America
• The company is undergoing fundamental improvements following a leadership team upgrade
• Trustpilot has unmatched reputation and scale in the industry with 1.1 million rated businesses, 60 million monthly unique visitors, and a quarter-billion total reviews

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Buffett has famously called Bitcoin a “mirage” and “rat poison squared”.

• If so, then the corporate wrapper masquerading as intelligent leverage of Bitcoin known as MSTR equals that squared — and is perhaps the epitome of late-stage capital cycles expressed

• Before I start, let me just say that I completely get the bull thesis behind Bitcoin. 

• Q2FY3/25 showed strong recovery in OP margins from 3.5% in Q2 FY3/24 to 5.3% in Q2 FY3/25, reflecting stringent cost control and AGEST Group turning to the black.
• Although the performance improved YoY, the company revised its FY3/25 OP guidance down to ¥2.5bn from ¥3.1bn mainly due to a negative impact from a cancellation of a large project for AGEST Group in Q1.
• Nevertheless, the company expects 24.5% OP growth YoY for FY3/25.

• Move away from short gamma levels and position covering help push HSI implied vols lower on the week. 
• Short dated Puts are still very active in HSCEI at the 6300 and 6800 strikes. 
• Both HSI and HSCEI implied vols are trading about 2 points above their pre-stimulus levels. 

• Initiate a short position in MCHP Target Price Range: $45-50 Time Horizon: 6-12 months 
• Declining fundamentals: Q2 FY2025 revenue declined 48% YoY, with adjusted EPS falling 72% YoY. Valuation concerns: P/E of 36.8x vs. sector median of 22x, unsupported by current performance.  
• Geo-Political risk: 50% of sales from Asia, exposed to potential trade tensions. Operational challenges: Customer destocking and sluggish demand. ETF-Driven price support: Potential for sharp correction if sector rotation occurs. 

• Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO
• It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• HP undergoes leadership overhaul and revamps supply chain in preparation for Trump 2.0, while strict qualification measures impact 7nm technology development.
• TSMC’s AI chip expansion is overshadowed by the potential return of Trump, with global notebook shipments fluctuating in Q3/Q4 2024.
• DIGITIMES Research forecasts a steady revenue growth of over 10% CAGR for the global wafer foundry industry during the 2024-2029 period, while Apple India’s sales soar to US$8B driven by strong iPhone sales. Availability of Samsung’s HBM3E for Nvidia’s Blackwell remains uncertain.

• JST Group (1703609D CH) is looking to raise up to US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is China’s largest and most popular e-commerce SaaS ERP provider to facilitate the connection of merchants with over 400 e-commerce platforms in China and across the world.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• The company continues to make progress with its international expansion which partially offsets concerns over the challenges in the company’s domestic market.
• Estimating the total number of shares (and by default ADSs) outstanding has been incredibly challenging as the company has financed operations by issuing stock as the market price of the ADSs has fallen.
• We now estimate that the company has 164 million common shares outstanding which equates to 1.8 million ADSs given the new ADS to common ratio of 1 to 90.

• Secai Marche, a farm-to-table startup connecting farmers with restaurants and retailers in Southeast Asia, has secured an additional JPY 250 million (US$1.6 million) in its Series A funding round.
• The round includes equity financing from Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Venture Capital (MSIVC) and debt financing from The Shizuoka Bank and The Hokkoku Bank.
• This follows a US$3.5 million Series A round of investment from investors, including Beyond Next Ventures, Spiral Ventures Asia, Mitsubishi UFJ Capital, Future Food Fund, Tsuneishi Shoji, Fukuoka Sonoriku, and Foodison co-CEO Toru Yamamoto, in August this year.

• Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index in December while New World Development (17 HK) will be deleted.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 2.7% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$10.89bn (US$1.4bn) with over 1 day of ADV to trade in the adds and the delete.
• The index committee has net added 1 stock to the Hang Seng Index this year to go from 82 to 83 constituents. Reaching the 100-member target will drag into 2026.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPOs front, S.F. Holding (6936 HK) and Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) launched their much awaited IPO, while we had a new launche in Australia in as well.
• On the placements front, Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) undertook a large placement

• Despite being a key beneficiary in travel and tourism in China, the rather muted growth in the first half does not bode well for Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) .
• YTD share price performance has reflected the above, but the deep discount valuation to Trip.com (TCOM US) might be temporary.
• In the near term, the company’s share price will not rebound as the company has less upside participation compared to Airlines and OTA. 

• Smartphone demand remains slow, that contributes to weak outlook for commodity DRAM.  Nvidia / Mediatek and Qualcomm AI PC chips should be launched mid-2025. 
• Nvidia allocation of TSMC CoWoS remains at 60% in 2025, capacity doubles, Data Center GPU revenue will double? TSMC 2nm-16A roadmap on track.  
• SK Hynix is now ahead of Samsung in HBM, DDR5, 3D NAND and SSD. Meanwhile, Samsung is buying back shares. 

• Kuaishou reported C3Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit,and IFRS net income in-line with our estimates and consensus.The only negative was that C4Q24 guidance for operating margin missed consensus and our estimate;
• Within mid-sized Internet platforms, Kuaishou lacks fresh secular driver, putting its stock under pressure. Advertising and GMV growth still outpace the industry and some peers. The stock is undervalued;
• We maintain our BUY rating and slightly revised down TP to HK$72 to make up for the higher-than-expected OPEX guidance.

• Haier plans to acquire all shares of Autohome and dismiss 30% of Autohome’s employees.
• In 3Q24, Xiaomi’s revenue grew by 30% YoY or 17% YoY without electric vehicle.
• In 3Q24, Tongcheng Travel’s revenue increased by 51% YoY with gross profit up by 29% YoY.

• NVIDIA this week reported Q3FY25 revenues of $35.082 billion, up 17% QoQ, up 94% YoY and a full $2.5 billion above the guided midpoint.
• Looking ahead, NVIDIA is forecasting revenues of $37.5 billion, up ~7% sequentially. Gross margins to decline slightly to 73%.
• Contrary to Jensen Huang’s vision, the existing $1 trillion worth of data centers do not need to be “modernized” into AI factories. This is pure fantasy. 

• Kioxia plans to complete its IPO on 18 December, valuing Kioxia at 750 billion yen ($4.8 billion), down nearly 50% from the initial market value estimates about 2-3 months ago. 
• Kioxia had revenue of 909.4 billion Yen (up 84.6% YoY) and EBITDA of 449.6 billion Yen in 1H FY24, driven by the recovering demand for data center and enterprise SSDs.
• As of 2Q 2024, Samsung Electronics was the largest player in the global NAND Flash market with a 36.9% market, followed by SK Group (22.1%), and Kioxia (13.8%).

• Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is scheduled to be listed on 18 December 2024, at the prime market of TSE at an expected valuation of ~$4.9bn.
• The security’s low free float is the main cause of Fast-Entry rejection by both global indices and quarterly exclusion from the one global index.
• Quarterly inclusion to the other global index is forecasted for June 2025 following the 3-month minimum trading requirement. 

• Temasek-Backed 65 Equity Partners bought 13% stake in Tuya, implying a total investment of US$100 million (or S$134M). 
• The fund’s mandate is to support high-growth, mid-cap companies seeking a listing on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).
• The listing will benefit Tuya by providing easy access to capital. Tuya will be able to use stock as a currency to fund its expansion plans in Southeast Asia.

• The opposition’s pushing a Commercial Act amendment, and to gain ruling party support, they might strategically ease up on the dividend tax issue—classic quid pro quo.
• The Samsung family’s collateral risk eased with a 10 trillion won buyback, but local markets are still cautious. Local traders now eye another 10 trillion won shareholder return.
• The timing of the special dividend and tax deadlines may cause mismatches, but we should watch for earlier price moves in Samsung Electronics preferred shares.

• Cuscal (1229Z AU) raised around A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO.
• Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.
• We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there are some finer points to focus on.
• NVIDIA reports Q3 EPS $0.81 ex-items vs FactSet $0.75. Reports Q3: Revenue $35.08B vs FactSet $33.17B (2 billion beat like clockwork)
• Q4 Guidance: Revenue $37.5B +/- 2% vs FactSet $37.09B (a bit light). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.0% and 73.5%, respectively, +/- 50 bps. (also light)

• On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;
• TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn’t cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;
• TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump’s Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.

• Globalstar reported strong results for the third quarter of 2024, with notable growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
• Total revenue grew by 25% from the previous year, reaching a record $72 million.
• Service revenue increased by 28%, primarily driven by wholesale capacity revenue and the recognition of performance bonuses for 2023 and part of 2024.

• IC design firms remain positive about 2025 outlook despite uncertainties for 1Q25, showing resilience in the industry.
• Taiwan evaluates consequences of Trump’s potential revocation of China’s trade status, highlighting potential geopolitical impacts.
• JSR’s construction of new EUV photoresist plant in S. Korea demonstrates commitment to meeting semiconductor demand in the region and globally.

• 65 Equity Partners, a Temasek-backed global investment firm with $3B+ in AUM, took a ~13% stake in Tuya for ~$100M.
• Jerry Wang, Tuya’s CEO and Founder, assumed that Tuya would consider a potential secondary listing in Singapore to strengthen company’s presence in the global capital markets.
• With $1B+ in cash, revenue growth re-acceleration, non-GAAP op margin break-even and turnaround plan, I have a positive view on the stock longer-term.

• Monolithic Power Systems (MPS) recently reported a robust performance for the third quarter of 2024, epitomizing significant revenue growth and diversification across its product portfolio.
• The company attained a record quarterly revenue of $620.1 million, marking a 22% increase from the previous quarter and an impressive 30% growth year-over-year.
• This growth trajectory is attributed to MPS’s advancing market strategy diversity and the beneficial onset of revenue steams from past design wins.

• Synaptics Incorporated’s recent earnings call provided a detailed overview of their first-quarter fiscal year 2025 performance, highlighting both positive and challenging aspects of their operations.
• A positive takeaway from the call is the company’s solid financial performance in the quarter.
• Revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to $257.7 million, surpassing the midpoint of guidance.

• RingCentral’s third quarter 2024 results reflected a solid performance, demonstrating strength both in traditional business segments and new product areas.
• The revenue exceeded guidance, supported by continued growth in the Unified Communications as a Service (UCaaS) sector and strong contributions from new products like RingCX.
• This performance aligns with RingCentral’s strategic focus: further solidifying its UCaaS leadership, expanding total addressable market (TAM) through new AI-powered offerings, and enhancing reach through partnerships and geographic expansion.

• There will be 8 additions and 8 deletions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
• Most of the inclusions were forecast but there is a lot of variance among the list of deletions… index committee knows best!
• Fadu (440110 KS) was ignored for yet another rebalance, while Snh Inc (051980 KS) has also not been included in the index.

• Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK), a leading IoT cloud platform in China, was listed on the 18th March 2021 at US$21.00/ADS. The share price is currently down 92.5%. 
• Tuya subsequently established a primary dual-listing in Hong Kong on the 5th July 2022, priced at HK$19.30/share. Those shares are down ~23% 
• Temasek-Backed 65 Equity Partners has now acquired a 13% stake (equivalent to ~6.2% of the voting rights) in Tuya, with a view to establishing a secondary listing on the SGX.

• Hong Kong is again trading well below its historical multiple valuation levels after the October/November correction.  Mainland investors bought a record amount the day after Trump’s win.
• Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) reported consensus beating results with its online game segment surging.  The company is benefiting from AI upgrades in its office SAAS business.
• Precision Tsugami China (1651 HK) posted blockbuster earnings for its 1H25 as the machine tool sector rebounds on the back of factories upgrading to intelligent manufacturing.

• On 18 November, it was announced that 65 Equity Partners (backed by Temasek) will invest US$100 million (S$134 million) for a 13% stake in Tuya Inc (TUYA US). 
• Net cash as a percentage of market cap is currently at 92%. Tuya’s sales growth and improvement in operating margin in 1Q-3Q 2024 have also been impressive this year.
• Comps are trading at average EV/EBITDA of 13.7x in 2025 versus 2.3x for for Tuya. If Tuya continues its turnaround, its valuation gap versus its peers could decrease further. 

• Qualcomm is aggressively pushing into the PC market, aiming to transform its identity from a mobile chip giant to a diversified computing powerhouse.
• At its recent investor day, Qualcomm announced bold revenue projections of $4 billion from PC chips by 2029, alongside significant strides in automotive, industrial IoT, and XR markets.
• This marks a pivotal moment as Qualcomm ventures beyond its traditional smartphone business, which currently accounts for 75% of its chip revenue.

• Xiaomi reported CY3Q24 revenue, non-IFRS EBIT and non-IFRS net income 4.7%, 7.8%, and 16.6% vs. consensus. 
• C4Q should be even stronger, as (1) appliance subsidy drive IoT revenue and margin improvement, (2) SU7 production output ~doubles
• We reiterate Xiaomi as our TOP BUY idea and raise Xiaomi’s TP to HK$ 33 to reflect the improved profit outlook. Our TP implies 26.6x CY25 P/E.

• Harmonic reported record results for the third quarter of 2024, with total company revenue and profitability exceeding expectations.
• The company’s Broadband and Video segments both contributed significantly to this performance, showcasing strong execution on business plans.
• The Broadband revenue reached $145.3 million, marking a 92% year-over-year increase and a 56% sequential increase.

• Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) implied volatility fell across the term structure and skew. The skew displays a smile favoring specific option strategies.
• The most traded HKEX traded tailor-made combinations are Call and Put Spreads. Straddles, Strangles and Butterflies have become less popular most recently.
• While three quarters of all strategies take a long volatility position, there is a balance in bullish, bearish, and market-neutral strategies.

• Ziff Davis reported its financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting several strategic advancements and financial outcomes.
• Total revenue grew by 3.7% compared to Q3 2023, reaching $353.6 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased more significantly, by 9.6%, reflecting a focus on operational efficiency and cost management that resulted in a higher adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.3%.

• Lightspeed Commerce Inc. reported its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings, showcasing robust performance with a 20% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $277.2 million, surpassing their projected range of $270-$275 million.
• This growth was driven by a significant rise in payment services penetration and effective cost control measures, resulting in a record adjusted EBITDA of $14 million, up from breakeven in the same quarter last year.
• Furthermore, Lightspeed’s trailing 12-month revenue exceeded $1 billion, demonstrating positive momentum for the company as it celebrates its 20th anniversary.