Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Alibaba (ADR), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Appier Group, Elan Microelectronics, King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd., Carta Holdings, Inc., ATN International, Kinatico and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK):  Value Proposition Looks Clean
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.
  • China Consumption Weekly (26 Feb 2024): Alibaba, Xpeng, HiPhi, Tuhu Car, Luckin
  • Appier (4180) | A Volatile Stock Despite Solid SaaS Metrics
  • Elan Microelectronics: 50% YoY Growth Feasible for 2024E; Now a Pricey Consensus Long
  • KYEC (2449.TT): 2024F Could Be a Prosperous Year Although 4Q23 Saw a 5% Decline QoQ.
  • Full Report – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)
  • ATNI: The Free Cash Flow Story Begins
  • Kinatico Ltd – H1 Result In-Line, SaaS Now 30%+ of Revenue
  • H1 result in-line, SaaS now 30%+ of revenue


Alibaba (9988 HK):  Value Proposition Looks Clean

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • It is well-known that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is cheap (9x FY24 PE, fiscal year ending March; 8x FY23 free cash flow; net cash 25% of market cap).
  • Taking into account all of the major moving parts, I believe Alibaba can now be categorized as a good value stock. 
  • Shareholder returns through buyback and dividend, minus stock-based compensation in 2023 calendar year equal to around 5% yield.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F
  • Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.
  • In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  

China Consumption Weekly (26 Feb 2024): Alibaba, Xpeng, HiPhi, Tuhu Car, Luckin

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba plans to provide operational services to third-party sales broadcasters.
  • Xpeng will hire 4,000 employees and raise research budget by 40%.
  • Tuhu Car expected that its net profit will turn positive in 2023.

Appier (4180) | A Volatile Stock Despite Solid SaaS Metrics

By Mark Chadwick

  • Post FY23 results in mid-February, Appier’s stock exhibited significant volatility, despite robust financial performance.
  • We believe that Appier is a beneficiary of continued growth in ecommerce and increasing ubiquity of AI solutions for marketing.  
  • Appier trades at a significant discount to global peers and domestic SaaS companies, suggesting significant upside

Elan Microelectronics: 50% YoY Growth Feasible for 2024E; Now a Pricey Consensus Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Elan Guides For Strong Revenue Growth Ahead and High Margins to Continue
  • AI PCs Only Expected to Drive Significant Volume by 2025E; Major AI Opportunity for Touch Sensors
  • Elan Can Benefit From Rising Consensus Forecasts But is Pricey — We Wouldn’t Chase the Rally But Also Don’t Want to Short It

KYEC (2449.TT): 2024F Could Be a Prosperous Year Although 4Q23 Saw a 5% Decline QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

  • It was declined by 5% for 2023 verses 2022, which was not a surprise because the overall sentiment should be dim in 2023.
  • For the coming 1Q24F, it could be a bit downside by 5%, assumed as a normal seasonality.
  • AI demand remain the biggest driving force, and all eyes are on the CoWoS. 

Full Report – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • CARTA HD strives to become “The Evolution Factory” and operates mainly in the digital marketing field.
  • The company was established in January 2019 through the merger of the former VOYAGE Group, which had expanded earnings by creating a series of new businesses centered on the ad tech domain, and the former Cyber Communications, the largest media rep firm in Japan.
  • CARTA HD holds a 3.9% share in the Japanese online advertising market.

ATNI: The Free Cash Flow Story Begins

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATNI reiterated its entry into the era of generating free cash flow after spending the last several years building out its fiber network
  • ATNI reported fourth quarter results that showed services revenue rising sequentially. An increase in subscribers is the source for the success
  • To grow revenue and generate free cash flow, ATNI has expanded its broadband network to approximately 769 thousand homes passed with 367 thousand of these homes having high-speed data

Kinatico Ltd – H1 Result In-Line, SaaS Now 30%+ of Revenue

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • KYP has reported H1 FY24 NPAT of $0.357m, a $1.13m turnaround on the previous corresponding period (pcp), and the company’s best-ever result.
  • The gross margin and EBITDA margin hit record levels of 67.7% and 13.4% respectively. The result was above our gross margin forecast but in line with our EBITDA estimate. 

H1 result in-line, SaaS now 30%+ of revenue

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • KYP has reported H1 FY24 NPAT of $0.357m, a $1.13m turnaround on the previous corresponding period (pcp), and the company’s best-ever result.
  • The gross margin and EBITDA margin hit record levels of 67.7% and 13.4% respectively.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Alibaba (ADR), Chipmos Technologies, Asia Vital Components and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive
  • ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure
  • ChipMOS: Valuation at Risk Given Latest Results; Short Interest Shows Sentiment Has Room to Shift
  • Asia Vital Components (3017) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +17.3% Premium, High Double Digit Level Persisting Since CNY
  • UMC: -1.5% Discount, We Believe Spread Biased to Go Positive
  • ChipMOS: +0.6% Premium, Collapsed from +4.6%. Now Within Typical Range.

ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, we looked at Trial Holdings (5882 JP) refiling and Xiaocaiyuan International Holding .
  • For placements, it was an action packed week in India, again, with Australia joining in as well.

ChipMOS: Valuation at Risk Given Latest Results; Short Interest Shows Sentiment Has Room to Shift

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ChipMOS Margin Rebound Sputters, Guidance Implies Margins Could Remain Under Pressure
  • Valuation Appears Precarious In Light of Latest Results and Guidance
  • Valuation Appears Precarious In Light of Latest Results and Guidance

Asia Vital Components (3017) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • AI is a rapidly growing trend in the global market, with Taiwanese manufacturer AVC experiencing significant growth in their stock value.
  • AVC has shown strong financial performance in recent years, with impressive average revenue and margin metrics.
  • The company is expected to continue its growth trend in 2023, with higher margins than historical averages, as the impact of technology and COVID has been beneficial for AVC.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intel Corp, Hygon Information Technology C, Twilio , Hubspot Inc, Applied Materials, Trade Desk /, Tyler Technologies, Zebra Technologies Corp, AppLovin , Fleetcor Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide
  • Twilio Inc: Growth Opportunities through Partnerships and Omnichannel Authentication Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers
  • HubSpot Inc: Are They Successfully Implementing AI In Their Operations? – Major Drivers
  • Applied Materials Inc (AMAT): Is The Escalation In Services Growth A Major Growth Catalyst In 2024? – Major Drivers
  • The Trade Desk Inc: Their Increasing Readiness for Identity Pivots A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Tyler Technologies: Growing Cloud Transactions & 5 Key Growth Catalysts! – Financial Forecasts
  • Zebra Technologies: Embedding Value Through Customized Solutions! – Major Drivers
  • AppLovin Corporation: Is The Robust Performance Of APP’s Software Platform Expected To Continue To Grow Revenues? – Major Drivers
  • FLEETCOR Technologies: A Story Of Improved Client Retention & Service Adoption! – Major Drivers


Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

By William Keating

  • Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!
  • Intel’s CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there’s more to come yet there’s been no public announcement of any such partnership. 
  • Microsoft’s commitment to use Intel’s 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let’s see how it plays out.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.
  • The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.
  • With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext and STAR50 indices.

Twilio Inc: Growth Opportunities through Partnerships and Omnichannel Authentication Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Twilio’s recent quarterly results highlighted that the company exceeded its revenue and Non-GAAP income from operations targets for Q4 2023 by generating nearly $1.1 billion in revenue and $173 million in Non-GAAP income from operations.
  • The free cash flow was $211 million.
  • The company achieved $4.2 billion in revenue for the full year and improved its Non-GAAP operating results from a Non-GAAP operating loss of $4 million in 2022 to Non-GAAP operating income of $533 million in 2023.

HubSpot Inc: Are They Successfully Implementing AI In Their Operations? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • HubSpot, a leading software company, provided a generally positive update on the firm’s financial performance, strategic direction, and plans for future growth.
  • On the financial front, the firm reported solid results for Q4 2023.
  • Revenue grew by 21% year-on-year in constant currency terms, and by 25% for the full year 2023.

Applied Materials Inc (AMAT): Is The Escalation In Services Growth A Major Growth Catalyst In 2024? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Applied Materials delivered a decent result and the management claims to have made a strong start to the current fiscal year, exceeding its earnings projections.
  • Strengths identified include the company’s innovation strategy and position at key industry inflections, such as new-foundry logic and developments in its DRAM market where it has captured over 50% of market share.
  • Revenue from its advanced packaging product portfolio is predicted to reach nearly $1.5 billion in 2024.

The Trade Desk Inc: Their Increasing Readiness for Identity Pivots A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Trade Desk had a robust finish to the year 2023 with a record total spend on their platform reaching almost $10 billion and revenue for the fourth quarter crossing the $600 million mark for the first time.
  • This growth has significantly outpaced the digital advertising market with a year-on-year growth of 23%.
  • The company also reported an adjusted EBITDA of over $770 million in 2023 and free cash flow upwards of $543 million.

Tyler Technologies: Growing Cloud Transactions & 5 Key Growth Catalysts! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Tyler Technologies reported promising Q4 results reflecting a robust end to 2023 and signaling a pivotal year in its cloud transition.
  • The company achieved all major objectives for the year with earnings and cash flow surpassing expectations.
  • Recurring revenues reportedly grew by 8% and accounted for 84% of the total revenues.

Zebra Technologies: Embedding Value Through Customized Solutions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Zebra Technologies has reported its latest quarterly and year-end financial results for 2023 that were significantly impacted by broad-based softness across end markets and regions.
  • The company realized sales of $1 billion demonstrating a 33% decline from the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%; a decrease of 7 points, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.71, a 64% decrease from the prior year.
  • All product categories experienced declines, however, services and software remained a bright spot in the quarter from a revenue perspective.

AppLovin Corporation: Is The Robust Performance Of APP’s Software Platform Expected To Continue To Grow Revenues? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AppLovin closed the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 on a high note after surpassing the upper end of its forecast and demonstrating a pattern of exceptional performance throughout the year.
  • Despite a challenging 2022 characterized by stagnant growth, the company reported a 76% increase in revenue from its software platform in 2023, testament to the potential of its AI advertising engine, AXON. While the performance shows the company’s financial strength, uncertainties prevail woven within the statements of forward-looking nature minus respective obligations of updating these unless required by law.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

FLEETCOR Technologies: A Story Of Improved Client Retention & Service Adoption! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.
  • has reported mixed results for Q4 and full year 2023.
  • Revenue for Q4 reached $937 million, registering a 6% upsurge; while cash EPS recorded a rise of 10% at $4.44, and EBITDA was approximately $500 million, 11% higher than the previous period.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Reddit , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Cisco Systems, Lenovo, Godaddy Inc Class A and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Reddit IPO Preview
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Implications of Feb Sales, TSMC 2nd Japanese Fab and NVDA Stock Price.
  • Cisco Systems: How Successful Are Their Efforts Of Digging Into AI? – Major Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Lenovo
  • GoDaddy Inc: A Story Of Penetration of Existing Customer Base with Payment Services! – Major Drivers


Reddit IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Reddit is getting ready for an IPO in the United States in the next several weeks. It is expected that this IPO will be completed in March. 
  • The company was previously valued at US$10 billion in a funding round in 2021. It is expected that the company could sell about 10% of its shares in this IPO.
  • Reddit may be seeking a valuation of at least US$5 billion in this IPO, which would be nearly half its valuation it received in 2021 in a private funding round. 

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Implications of Feb Sales, TSMC 2nd Japanese Fab and NVDA Stock Price.

By Patrick Liao

  • Usually, February is typically the month with the fewest working days of the year, and therefore, revenue is likely to be at its lowest as well.
  • We consider that the Taiwanese government may desire TSMC to build fabs in countries aligned with those who signed the “Wassenaar Arrangement.” 
  • The price hike of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) by US$785.38 on February 22 in the US market could signal an important development in the AI sector.

Cisco Systems: How Successful Are Their Efforts Of Digging Into AI? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems Inc.’s fiscal second-quarter results demonstrated a mix of positives and negatives, balanced by the company’s flexible strategic route and shifting market conditions.
  • Revenue for the quarter edged at the high end of the company’s guidance range, owing to robust operating leverage across business segments that surpassed margin expectations and facilitated better-than-expected earnings per share.
  • A total of $2.8 billion value was returned to investors through dividends and share buybacks, evidencing Cisco’s ongoing commitment to its shareholders.

Morning Views Asia: Lenovo

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


GoDaddy Inc: A Story Of Penetration of Existing Customer Base with Payment Services! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In summarizing GoDaddy’s fourth quarter and annual 2023 results, it appears like the company has maintained a steady growth trajectory, particularly in its Applications & Commerce segment that achieved a 16% bookings growth.
  • The company has also successfully driven a 2023 normalized EBITDA margin that surpassed previous guidance due to its investment in growth and cost structure management.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sea , Workday Inc Class A, NVIDIA Corp, Jusung Engineering, SUMCO Corp, NetEase Inc, Datadog , Cadence Design Sys, Lattice Semiconductor and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon
  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Mar 24: Big Index Flows Possible for Workday and KKR
  • Nvidia: A Quality Stock that Shows Human Investors Are Unable to Discount Exponential Growth
  • FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Likely; Close Among Potential Adds
  • SUMCO’s Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers
  • [NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$118) TP Change]: Strong In-House Game Performance Drives Margins
  • Datadog Inc: Can The Acquisition Of Actiondesk Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia’s Goldilocks Quarter
  • Cadence Design Systems: A Solid AI Infrastructure & Product Positioning Changing Its Growth Story? – Major Drivers
  • Lattice Semiconductor: A Tale Of An Expanding Market & An Increasing Client Base! – Major Drivers


Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon

By Simon Torring

  • Shopee – Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform – has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so years since its launch. 

  • Investors now however appear to be looking for earnings growth. In 7 of the last 9 quarterly earnings reports, investors have rewarded the company every time it has reported earnings growth (its share price has gone up in the day after the release), and penalized when it has not.

  • Based on our analysis (and subject to the disclaimer included below), we expect Shopee’s GMV and Revenue to improve in Q4 2023 (as compared to the previous quarter) along with its EBITDA, although earnings will likely remain in negative territory.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Mar 24: Big Index Flows Possible for Workday and KKR

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in March 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 29th February 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the rebalance. We estimate US$13.1bn one-way flow on 3 ADDs and 3 DELs.

Nvidia: A Quality Stock that Shows Human Investors Are Unable to Discount Exponential Growth

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Nvidia’s blowout earnings number is another example of how grasping exponential growth trends is extremely difficult for human investors.
  • Unlike what is often assumed, Nvidia, for now, qualifies as a quality stock, revealing relentless competitive power, low debt, and reasonable valuation.
  • Nvidia’s weight with Quality ETFs is bigger than its weight in the MSCI World Index, adding to quality stock outperformance.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Likely; Close Among Potential Adds

By Brian Freitas


SUMCO’s Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers

By William Keating

  • Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, about 5% better than forecasted, up 5% QoQ but down ~10% YoY.
  • Q124 revenues forecasted to decline 17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. Not surprisingly, EBITDA will also decline 33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion.
  • On a brighter note, demand growth driven by generative AI will roughly double wafer demand for servers (AI+General) by 2027

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$118) TP Change]: Strong In-House Game Performance Drives Margins

By Ying Pan

  • We expect NetEase to report C4Q23 revenue, GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income 4.9%, 5.7% and 8.5% vs. consensus.
  • The robust topline growth was mainly contributed by revenue recognition of <Justice Mobile> in the peak summer season.
  • The grossing of legacy titles like <FWWJ> is also growing steadily due to the low-price strategy. We raise our TP to US$118 to reflect the rich and diversified pipeline…

Datadog Inc: Can The Acquisition Of Actiondesk Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Datadog Inc., in its Q4 2023 earnings, revealed that it ended the year on a high note.
  • With continued innovation and high customer adoption rates, the company’s revenue was $590 million, a 26% increase year-over-year, exceeding its guidance range.
  • The company’s customer growth was significant, moving from around 23,200 last year to about 27,300 currently.

Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia’s Goldilocks Quarter

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Nvidia’s earnings are akin to my Super Bowl.
  • There is no more significant event in semiconductors and AI, and each quarter, we tune into Nvidia’s results to see precisely what quarter we are in the AI hype cycle (and potentially bubble).
  • There is no better signpost for the entire AI ecosystem than the company making the most of the revenue so far: Nvidia.

Cadence Design Systems: A Solid AI Infrastructure & Product Positioning Changing Its Growth Story? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cadence Design Systems reported outstanding performance for Q4 and FY 2023, achieving 15% revenue growth, a non-GAAP operating margin of 42%, and over 20% non-GAAP EPS growth.
  • The company exited the year with a record backlog of $6 billion.
  • Cadence attributes this success to their innovative solutions and customer commitments to their chip to system integrated design and analysis platforms.

Lattice Semiconductor: A Tale Of An Expanding Market & An Increasing Client Base! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lattice Semiconductor Corp.
  • achieved solid financial results in 2023, with robust revenue growth and record gross margins.
  • The semiconductor industry’s cyclical correction had a slight impact on the company’s 2023 Q4 progress, which could continue into early 2024.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Gree Inc, United Microelectron Sp Adr, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, NVIDIA Corp, Delta Electronics Thailand , Vection Technologies Ltd, Soluna Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Gree (3632 JP) – Overnight Offering in Asset-Rich Value Trap as KDDI Sells Out
  • United Microelectronics Is Becoming a Great Long-Term Acquisition Target for Intel
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Ahead of Nvidia Results Today; Intel & UMC; ARM & Novatek
  • From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): More Downside from Here
  • Vection Technologies – Contract wins underpin strong start to H224
  • Soluna Holdings, Inc. – New Hosting Deal Expands AI Initiative


Gree (3632 JP) – Overnight Offering in Asset-Rich Value Trap as KDDI Sells Out

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Gree Inc (3632 JP) announced that KDDI would offer its 8,000,000 shares in Gree in an international offering through Mizuho Intl.
  • The deal comes at a decently large discount and the stock is quite downtrodden. Especially when compared to its venture assets and cash, assuming invested amount is remotely viable.
  • The problem is that too much of revenue isn’t earning much, so this sits in a Value Trap category. Shareholder structure makes it difficult to do buybacks.

United Microelectronics Is Becoming a Great Long-Term Acquisition Target for Intel

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • UMC spoke at an investment bank’s recent conference, providing additional color on guidance and its collaboration with Intel for 12nm chip production.
  • UMC comments imply the key synergies between the two companies, whereby each can solve the other’s key problem,
  • While UMC most likely needs to remain a “Taiwanese company” in terms of optics given its history, Intel’s synergies with UMC establishes acquisition-value support for UMC shares in our view.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Ahead of Nvidia Results Today; Intel & UMC; ARM & Novatek

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Key Events: 1) Nvidia Results Coming Today in the U.S. 2) Elan & ChipMOS Tomorrow in Taiwan 3) U.S. PC Maker Results Next Week
  • Why United Microelectronics Is Becoming a Great Long-Term Acquisition Target for Intel 
  • Novatek a Top Gainer After Reports of Alliance with ARM to Build Neoverse V2 for AI

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

By Andrew Lu

  • Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
  • TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
  • We attribute Nvidia customers’ sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): More Downside from Here

By Brian Freitas


Vection Technologies – Contract wins underpin strong start to H224

By Edison Investment Research

Vection Technologies secured multiple contracts in February, generating total contract value (TCV) of A$5.8m, with management expecting to recognise the associated revenue and cash across H224. Year to date, the group has delivered more than A$22.5m in TCV, c 80% of FY23 TCV, underpinning growth momentum in FY24. The most substantial contract, valued at A$4.9m, was won with an existing customer in the defence sector, Vection’s second-largest vertical, showing that management is delivering on its upsell strategy. The other contracts spanned healthcare, retail and real estate, reflecting growing demand for extended/virtual reality technologies across a myriad of commercial applications.


Soluna Holdings, Inc. – New Hosting Deal Expands AI Initiative

By Water Tower Research

  • Announces hosting agreement with GPU startup for AI computing.
  • Soluna announced a co-location agreement with an AI-focused GPU startup that will locate its GPU units in Soluna’s existing modular data center at the 25MW Project Sophie in Kentucky.
  • New contract is another milestone in the company’s growth into AI.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Novatek Microelectronics Corp, Texas Instruments, Amazon.com Inc, Lions Gate Entertainment and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Technology Sector Update]: LLM Advances Give China and US Both Opportunities
  • Novatek (3034.TT): It’s Said to Alliance with ARM to Build up Neoverse V2, Targeting AI Market.
  • Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) – Monday, Nov 20, 2023
  • Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)
  • Lions Gate Entertainment Cp (LGF.A) – Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023


[Blue Lotus Technology Sector Update]: LLM Advances Give China and US Both Opportunities

By Ying Pan

  • On February 15, OpenAI, Google and Amazon launched respective AI advances in video LLM (SORA), long text (Gemini 1.5), and text-to-speech (BASE) abilities. The evolution speed of AI inspired awe;
  • We estimate rival equivalent of SORA, delivered over cloud, will appear in 4-6 months of time but on-device version will take years.
  • We suggest 2C AI applications, especially video, will be the prime beneficiary

Novatek (3034.TT): It’s Said to Alliance with ARM to Build up Neoverse V2, Targeting AI Market.

By Patrick Liao

  • Novatek’s share price has surged by more than 15% in four days due to the news of Novatek’s alliance with ARM to develop Neoverse V2.
  • While the decision on whether the iPhone 16 will feature OLED technology is still pending, the general sentiment is optimistic.
  • Novatek is set to leverage Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 12nm capacity through United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) in the near future.

Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) – Monday, Nov 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • TI has continued to innovate in analog chip design over time
  • Their chips are used in a variety of industries including automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics
  • TI’s analog chips are found in a wide range of products from smartphones to medical devices

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

By Brian Freitas


Lions Gate Entertainment Cp (LGF.A) – Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Recommendation to short Lions Gate with 40-70% upside potential
  • Unsustainable leverage and expected earnings misses cited as reasons for shorting
  • Studio’s underperforming content and high debt levels are key concerns for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hygon Information Technology C, Naver Corp, Nintendo, Tencent, Alchip Technologies, LG Display, Applied Materials, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Dynatrace , CyberArk Software Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Big Price Moves Could Lead to Four Changes
  • Initial Thoughts on the Webtoon Entertainment IPO
  • Nintendo (7974) | Delayed…Or Just Fashionably Late
  • Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Alchip (3661) Could Replace Feng Tay (9910)
  • Practical Issues with English Disclosure Sites in Korea (Feat. LG Display) & FSC’s Latest Solutions
  • AMAT. Post Earnings Surge For No Good Reason
  • MicroStrategy: Is Its Bitcoin Strategy Changing The Game? – Major Drivers
  • Dynatrace Inc: Demand For Observability & Application Security Can Push Their Revenues In 2024? – Major Drivers
  • CyberArk Software: Is Their New Secure Cloud Access Product A Game Changer? – Major Drivers



Initial Thoughts on the Webtoon Entertainment IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Naver Corp (035420 KS) is trying to complete the IPO of its affiliate Webtoon Entertainment in the US stock market as early as June 2024. 
  • The expected value of Webtoon Entertainment (post IPO) is about US$3 billion to US$4 billion. Webtoon Entertainment is seeking to raise about US$500 million in this IPO. 
  • The IPO of Webtoon Entertainment in the US is likely to have a positive impact on Naver Corp (035420 KS).

Nintendo (7974) | Delayed…Or Just Fashionably Late

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nintendo’s share price fell ~6% on rumours of Switch 2 delay, wiping around $4 billion of the market cap
  • We do not believe that a one quarter delay will have any impact on the console’s long-term sell-through or the stock’s valuation
  • With Sony’s PS5 faltering, Nintendo is launching at an opportune time. We turn bullish on the stock with ~25% upside from here

Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels

By Eric Chen

  • One year ago, we published a note valuing Wechat Channels at US$29 billion by applying 25xPE to RMB8 billion net profit out of RMB37 billion revenue by 2024.
  • Fast forward to today, the platform’s priority has been further elevated by Tencent management in its attempt to pursue high quality growth.
  • We review our thesis on Wechat Channels based on recent channel checks and now believe that the platform could represent ~35% of Tencent’s total incremental profit from 2024 to 2026. 

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Alchip (3661) Could Replace Feng Tay (9910)

By Brian Freitas


Practical Issues with English Disclosure Sites in Korea (Feat. LG Display) & FSC’s Latest Solutions

By Sanghyun Park

  • Foreign traders face challenges in LG Display’s rights offering. While LG Display provides updates through English disclosures, detailed schedule information exclusive to the Korean prospectus is missing.
  • To ensure access to all Korean disclosures, use the DART English service. DART imports English disclosures from KIND and provides English titles for Korean-only disclosures. Use translation tools like ChatGPT.
  • FSC enhances services to address practical issues. For lengthy documents, only English titles are available. FSC will provide English for subtitles, tables, and charts, using an automatic translation system.

AMAT. Post Earnings Surge For No Good Reason

By William Keating

  • Q124 revenues of $6.71 billion, at the high end of the guided range and essentially flat sequentially both QoQ and YoY
  • Q224 revenue $6.5 billion at the midpoint, a modest downward movement of 3% QoQ and in line with what we saw from peers KLAC and LRCX
  • Still a great company with excellent growth prospects, just not in 2024

MicroStrategy: Is Its Bitcoin Strategy Changing The Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MicroStrategy Inc’s fourth quarter 2023 earnings point towards a strong performance from being the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, possessing 190,000 bitcoins with a market value of $8.1 billion.
  • Over 2023, the company added another 56,650 bitcoins to its portfolio costing $1.9 billion, making the company’s bitcoin strategy a long-term focus.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Dynatrace Inc: Demand For Observability & Application Security Can Push Their Revenues In 2024? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • According to Dynatrace’s fiscal third quarter 2024 earnings, the company delivered solid results driven by its ability to successfully navigate a continually changing market.
  • Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 21% year over year, while subscription revenue increased by 23% over the same period.
  • Non-GAAP operating income steadily increased to $105 million representing 29% of revenue and robust free cash flow margin was delivered at 25% on a trailing 12-month basis.

CyberArk Software: Is Their New Secure Cloud Access Product A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Underpinned by an urgent need for a more secure digital landscape, CyberArk Software has emerged with a wholesome performance in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2023.
  • An impressive 60% YoY growth of Subscription ARR has led CyberArk to become an exclusively recurring revenue company, with an astounding 95% of total bookings coming via subscriptions.
  • CyberArk marked the close of 2023 by bolstering its market leadership in the realm of Identity Security Platforms with a robust growth quarter.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Globalwafers and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F


Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

By Patrick Liao

  • The sales of Jan 2024F were the lowest during 2022-2024F, indicating a likely downtrend for 1Q24F.
  • Demand is expected to remain sluggish in 2Q24F, potentially resulting in decreased raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory in 2Q24F.
  • The market for 12″ raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Altium Ltd, China Unicom Hong Kong, Temenos AG, SCREEN Holdings, Cloudflare , Coherent Inc, Alibaba (ADR), ROBLOX , Snap , Take Two Interactive Software, Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Altium, Ansarada, Roland DG, Welbe, Orecorp, Vinda
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: Third Time Unlucky for Zhongsheng (881 HK) As China Unicom (762 HK) In
  • Unveiling the Shadows: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research’s Exposé on Temenos
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning
  • Cloudflare Inc: Why We See Immense Potential In AI and Vectorize! – Major Drivers
  • Coherent Corp.: Launch of New WaveShaper Instruments For U- And Super C-Bands & Other Major Developments
  • Alibaba Group: Revitalization of Taobao and Tmall Group
  • Roblox Corporation: Cutting-Edge AI Drives Cost Down! Inside Look at How They’re Revolutionizing Game Infrastructure! – Major Drivers
  • Snap Inc: Can Its Optimization Of Machine Learning (ML) Models for Advertising Change The Game? – Major Drivers
  • Take-Two Interactive Software: The Realization Of The Zynga Acquisition Synergies Is Now Evident & How! – Major Drivers


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Altium, Ansarada, Roland DG, Welbe, Orecorp, Vinda

By David Blennerhassett


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Third Time Unlucky for Zhongsheng (881 HK) As China Unicom (762 HK) In

By Brian Freitas


Unveiling the Shadows: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research’s Exposé on Temenos

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Diving Deep into Hindenburg Research’s comprehensive report on Temenos triggers a market plunge, alleging accounting manipulations, failed North American expansion, product failures, and troubled European deals.
  • Allegations include aggressive revenue recognition, excessive R&D capitalization, difficulty in revenue collection, inflated free cash flow, and executive insiders stock divestment.
  • Temenos denies allegations, defending its business integrity, performance, and financial standing, but market volatility persists, emphasizing the need for transparent communication and governance reassurance.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

By Brian Freitas


Cloudflare Inc: Why We See Immense Potential In AI and Vectorize! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cloudflare Inc.’s latest Q4 2023 earnings highlighted several encouraging developments, underscoring a strong quarter of business growth and an upbeat financial performance, even amid prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties.
  • The cloud-based network security company reported total revenues of $362.5 million, a 32% increase year-over-year(YoY).
  • The increase was driven significantly by larger customers, with 66% of revenue coming from this group.

Coherent Corp.: Launch of New WaveShaper Instruments For U- And Super C-Bands & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Coherent Corp.’s second quarter fiscal 2024 earnings demonstrated signs of gradual improvement in its financial performance, furthering confidence in its outlook for growth and profitability.
  • They reported solid sequential growth in both revenue and margins.
  • Significant developments from Q2 include increasing gross and operating margins and improving demand across its communications and industrial markets.

Alibaba Group: Revitalization of Taobao and Tmall Group

By Baptista Research

  • Alibaba Group’s latest report for the December Quarter 2023 reflected steady growth despite necessary organizational adjustments.
  • The call highlighted an overall focus on a more aggressive approach towards competition to win growth, reigniting the growth in their two core businesses: e-commerce and cloud computing.
  • The healthy year-over-year Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth in the e-commerce segment is attributed to the effective execution of user-first and competitive pricing strategies in Taobao and Tmall Group (TTG).

Roblox Corporation: Cutting-Edge AI Drives Cost Down! Inside Look at How They’re Revolutionizing Game Infrastructure! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Roblox Corporation exhibited a robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year 2023, in line with the outlook projected at their Investor Day.
  • Q4 saw daily active users (DAUs) reaching 71.5 million, a 22% increase, and hours engaged increasing to 15.5 billion hours, a jump of 21% year-on-year.
  • Revenue for Q4 alone stood at $749 million, up 30% year-on-year, with bookings hitting $1.1 billion, a bump of 25% year on year.

Snap Inc: Can Its Optimization Of Machine Learning (ML) Models for Advertising Change The Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Snap Inc.
  • achieved significant progress in Q4 2023, driven by its strategic focus on growing its community and enhancing user engagement.
  • Monthly active users increased 8% year-over-year, passing the 800 million mark, and daily active users also increased 10% to reach 414 million, which indicates progress towards the company’s goal of 1 billion monthly active users.

Take-Two Interactive Software: The Realization Of The Zynga Acquisition Synergies Is Now Evident & How! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
  • posted robust results for Q3 FY2024, led by robust performances from Grand Theft Auto V, Grand Theft Auto Online, the Red Dead Redemption series, and Zynga’s in-app purchases.
  • Net bookings reached $1.3 billion for the quarter.

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