Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , Wiwynn Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Linklogis, Shift Up, Applied Blockchain Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement, Buyback & Index Flows
  • Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): A US$2.0 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes
  • Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread on Brink of Falling to Past Levels; UMC Extreme Premium
  • Kokusai Electric Placement – US$1.7bn Selldown for a Good Quality Name
  • An Interview with Wes Cummins, CEO of Applied Digital


Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO

By Travis Lundy

  • Today post-close we got confirmation of yesterday’s Reuters scoop of a secondary selldown on Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the stock fell 7.2% in heavy volume.
  • KKR HKE LP and KSP Kokusai LLC (Koch) will together sell 52.5mm shares plus another 7.8mm+ in the greenshoe. Split is 50/50 domestic/international. 
  • This is 60+mm shares against 51mm shares held by non-passive holders ex-Capital (who has been selling). It’s a lot of stock at a high price.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement, Buyback & Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • KKR and KSP Kokusai will offer 52.51m-60.38m shares (US$1.76bn-2bn) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 22 July.
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will also buy back up to JPY 18bn of its shares. At the last close, that is 3.33m shares (1.2x ADV).
  • Trackers of one global index will buy stock at the time of settlement of the shares. The (much) bigger buying will come at the end of August.

Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT) is looking to raise around US$850m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): A US$2.0 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 60.4 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY326 billion (US$2.0 billion).
  • The secondary offering facilitates KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments’ ability to crystallise substantial IPO gains—the shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 22 and 24 July (likely 22 July).

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC June Sales Surge Higher Than Expectations; Apple Will Be Use TSMC’s 2nm Node for Next Year’s iPhone 17
  • Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong 
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity. 

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.
  • There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Capping will result in passives buying Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) while selling Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK).

Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.
  • Our base case (6 months – 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.
  • We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread on Brink of Falling to Past Levels; UMC Extreme Premium

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +15.1% Premium; Will It Break Down to Lower Past Trading Levels?
  • UMC: +2.4% Premium; Can Consider Shorting This Historically High Level
  • ChipMOS: -3.1% Discount; Long The Spread Given Historically Extreme Discount

Kokusai Electric Placement – US$1.7bn Selldown for a Good Quality Name

By Ethan Aw

  • KKR & Co (KKR US) and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, selling approximately 52.5m shares of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s stock.
  • The deal is a large one to digest at 19 days of three month ADV.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

An Interview with Wes Cummins, CEO of Applied Digital

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Doug O’Laughlin: Today, on Fabricated Knowledge, I have the privilege of having Wes from Applied Digital on to talk about Applied Digital.
  • Today, we’re gonna talk about the change in his business model. The company is experiencing a lot of changes, and there are a lot of new things in the pipeline.
  • And so I just wanted to sit him down and have an opportunity to chat about that. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , CELSYS, Micron Technology, Shift Up, Netdragon Websoft, Arlo Technologies Inc, Cirrus Logic, Accenture Plc Cl A, BILL Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)
  • Micron Technology Inc.: Will Its Expansion into Data Center and AI Markets Result In A Massive Runup? – Major Drivers
  • Shift Up IPO Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games
  • Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024
  • ARLO: Accelerated Pace of Growth
  • Cirrus Logic Inc.: Market Expansion Into Laptops & PCs & Major Drivers
  • Accenture plc: How They Are Enabling Growth Through Acquisitions
  • Bill.com Holdings Inc.: Focus on International Expansion through Enhanced Payment Systems! – Major Drivers


KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, a Reuters article came out saying that KKR would sell down half its 43% stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) according to “two people familiar with the matter.”
  • The article also said Kokusai Electric would buy back shares. Kokusai responded with a TDNET release saying “we did not release this info but we are considering various capital policies.
  • It pays to look at the Shareholder Structure as it stands. This is bigger than it looks. 

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that KKR & Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
  • As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
  • Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • In the last few days, SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.
  • Macbee Planet was in our highest conviction list but SUNWELS Co was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.

Micron Technology Inc.: Will Its Expansion into Data Center and AI Markets Result In A Massive Runup? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Micron Technology recently provided insights into their fiscal third quarter 2024 performance, shedding light on various strategic and operational aspects that investors may find critical in shaping their investment thesis.
  • Amid a challenging global semiconductor landscape characterized by rapid technological advancements and fluctuating demand cycles, Micron appears cautiously optimistic about the future, driven by strategic investments and a focus on high-margin products.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Shift Up IPO Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top.
  • Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • NetDragon’s stock is priced at 11.0 HKD with 531 million shares and a market cap of 5,870 HKD
  • Company completed a reverse merger listing for its education business, causing some complications, but gaming business is seen as a hidden gem with growth potential
  • NetDragon, operated by the Liu family, has a history of successful business incubation and has returned around 50% of its market capitalization to shareholders in the past three years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


ARLO: Accelerated Pace of Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO announced it had reached 4 million paid accounts approximately four months after achieving 3 million paid accounts. 
  • The pace of growth is most likely the result of catch-up calculations related to Verisure. However, this should not take away from the magnitude of increase in the number.
  • The higher baseline of subscriber numbers should change the annualized recurring revenue (“ARR”) for ARLO compared to the end of the first quarter.  

Cirrus Logic Inc.: Market Expansion Into Laptops & PCs & Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cirrus Logic has presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year 2024, revealing mixed outcomes that highlight both challenges and growth opportunities.
  • The company reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $378.1 million, surpassing the upper edge of the guidance range.
  • This surge was attributed to an unexpected rise in demand for smartphone components.

Accenture plc: How They Are Enabling Growth Through Acquisitions

By Baptista Research

  • Accenture’s latest financial results highlight a dynamic and multifaceted performance.
  • The fiscal year has seen client spending patterns diverge from initial expectations, with a clear preference for large-scale transformations over smaller, discretionary projects.
  • This shift has led to slower revenue conversion and delayed decision making, necessitating a strategic pivot by Accenture.

Bill.com Holdings Inc.: Focus on International Expansion through Enhanced Payment Systems! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BILL reported strong fiscal third quarter 2027 results, highlighting robust revenue growth and significant expansion in non-GAAP operating income.
  • Revenue increased by 19% year-over-year, driven by high transaction volumes and an effective monetization strategy.
  • The reception of their financial management solutions among small businesses remains vigorous, as evidenced by the processing of over 25 million transactions amounting to more than $70 billion during the quarter.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Corp, Kakao Games , MD Pictures Tbk PT, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sohu.com, Qualcomm Inc, Rapid7 Inc, Ubiquiti Inc., Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd, Flex and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Corp (9434) – Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux – So Be Bearish
  • Exploring the Kakao Corp and Krafton Deal Potential for Kakao Games
  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: China/Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 8th)
  • Sohu.com Inc (Nasdaq: SOHU): A Net-Net with $1.3B in Cash and Valuable Real Estate
  • QUALCOMM INC. – Equity Research Flash Note
  • Rapid7 Inc.: Comprehensive Security Solutions & 3 Factors Making It A Solid Acquisition Target! – Financial Forecasts
  • UI: New Product Momentum
  • Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd (9418 JP): Q3 FY08/24 flash update
  • Flex Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Here Are The 3 Biggest Factors Driving Its Performance!


Softbank Corp (9434) – Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux – So Be Bearish

By Travis Lundy

  • Telecom companies are traditionally “easy” to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.
  • In comparing Japan’s telcos, I believe when Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.
  • Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.

Exploring the Kakao Corp and Krafton Deal Potential for Kakao Games

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kakao has begun talks with potential buyers for Kakao Games, with Krafton leading discussions directly using its own investment team.
  • Despite official denials, it’s viewed as procedural. Local markets anticipate the deal due to no direct refutation beyond formal announcements.
  • A three-month compliance period from disclosure makes this quarter challenging, but completion announcement potential exists by Q4 this year.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
  • Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
  • For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: China/Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 8th)

By David Mudd

  • After hitting a low point in Q4 2023, Research on Hong Kong companies has been slow to pick up reflecting the ongoing skepticism from investors. 
  • Reports on the large China tech companies dominated the top ten companies covered over the last couple of years and in the first half of 2024.
  • As China continues to dominate and make news in the global EV market, research in that sector has picked up.

Sohu.com Inc (Nasdaq: SOHU): A Net-Net with $1.3B in Cash and Valuable Real Estate

By Altay Capital

  • This writeup was inspired by David Orr’s tweet about the U.S. listed Chinese company DouYu (Nasdaq: DOYU) paying out a $9.76 special dividend.
  • The stock closed at $12.59 the day before and was $6.59 earlier in the year.
  • Among Chinese ADRs with significant cash balances, SOHU is my favorite. 

QUALCOMM INC. – Equity Research Flash Note

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • The company’s annual revenue was $35,820 million in 2023 compared to $44,200 million in 2022, seeing a decrease of 18.96%.
  • We estimate that for FY2024 the annual revenue will range at around $37,671 million and for 2025 at around $39,934 million.
  • Gross profit for FY2023 was $19,951 million, decreased by 21.96% compared to $25,565 million for the corresponding period of 2022. 

Rapid7 Inc.: Comprehensive Security Solutions & 3 Factors Making It A Solid Acquisition Target! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Rapid7, under the leadership of CEO Corey Thomas and CFO Tim Adams, remains at the forefront of cybersecurity solutions focused on delivering integrated risk and security operations.
  • The company concluded the first quarter of 2024 with $807 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), which indicates an 11% year-over year growth.
  • The quarter saw steady performance in its Direct Complete offerings but noted a shortfall in ARR expectations primarily due to slower transitions in the vulnerability management (VM) base to its integrated Cloud Risk Complete offering.

UI: New Product Momentum

By Hamed Khorsand

  • A series of new product introductions earlier this year should contribute to Ubiquiti  experiencing follow through sales momentum in the June quarter. 
  • In the June quarter we are anticipating both enterprise and service provider revenue to increase sequentially.
  • The March 2024 quarter included a charge. We are not expecting Ubiquiti to incur a similar expense in the June quarter. 

Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd (9418 JP): Q3 FY08/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Cumulative Q3 FY08/24 results: Revenue JPY235.5bn (+16.5% YoY), Operating profit JPY23.5bn (+51.2% YoY), Recurring profit JPY23.0bn (+56.9% YoY).
  • Segment performance: Communications revenue up 10.2% YoY, Business Systems revenue up 48.0% YoY, Energy revenue down 7.0% YoY.
  • Subscriber growth: U-NEXT service subscribers at 4.34mn, ARR JPY101.2bn (+22.0% YoY), advertising expenses JPY9.3bn (+32.1% YoY).

Flex Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Here Are The 3 Biggest Factors Driving Its Performance!

By Baptista Research

  • Flex Ltd. reported solid performance for fiscal Q3, demonstrating strong execution across its operations.
  • The company, which provides a wide array of manufacturing services, generated $7.1 billion in revenue, achieving an adjusted operating margin of 6.7% and an adjusted EPS of $0.71.
  • When excluding Nextracker, Core Flex revenue was $6.4 billion with a record operating margin of 4.9%, delivering $0.54 of EPS.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Silergy Corp, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity.
  • Vanguard (5347.TT): The Utilization to Improve over 70% in 3Q24.


Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity.

By Patrick Liao

  • We are surprised that Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is using Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) to trial-run products.
  • The outlook for 2024 remains unchanged at over 20% YoY, and we still see a path to recovery ahead.
  • We consider the recent drop from NTD$526 on June 14th to NTD$429 on July 5th as an opportunity to consider entering the stock.

Vanguard (5347.TT): The Utilization to Improve over 70% in 3Q24.

By Patrick Liao


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ASM Pacific Technology, Shift Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
  • Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
  • Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

By Sanghyun Park

  • Notably, local hedge funds receive significant allocation, nearly 10%, unusual for KOSPI IPOs this size, differing from HD Hyundai Marine Solution.
  • KOSPI 200’s initial float rate is 14%, rising to 58% in six months. MSCI starts at 8%, reaching 12% in six months and 25% in a year.
  • Differences from HD Hyundai Marine Solution include high short-term strategies among institutions. Unlike before, local pension funds receive substantial allocation, potentially affecting stock price post-listing.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Wix.Com Ltd, Credo Technology Group Holding, Ambarella Inc, Nano Dimension , Lions Gate Entertainment , iHeartMedia, Xerox Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Wix.com Ltd. – Improved Monetization Leading to Increasing ARPS! – Major Drivers
  • Credo Technology Group: We Are Unsure Despite Their Expansion in Artificial Intelligence Applications! – Major Drivers
  • Ambarella Inc.: Expansion of Partnerships in Automotive AI Driving Our Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers
  • Nano Dimension – Agreement to acquire Desktop Metal
  • Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.: A Story Of Strategic Content Licensing and Partnership Expansion!
  • Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024
  • Xerox Holdings Corp (XRX) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024


Wix.com Ltd. – Improved Monetization Leading to Increasing ARPS! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q1 2024 earnings, Wix.com Ltd.’s management shared a very positive outlook based on the company’s recent financial results, strategic initiatives, and product advancements.
  • Key achievements included stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, with booking growing to over $457 million and revenue reaching $420 million, exceeding the company’s previous guidance.
  • This performance led to free cash flow growth to more than $111 million.

Credo Technology Group: We Are Unsure Despite Their Expansion in Artificial Intelligence Applications! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Credo’s fiscal 2024 earnings presented a blend of robust achievements and markers for future growth, tied along with inherent business risks associated with developing and scaling high-speed connectivity solutions.
  • The company highlighted record annual revenue alongside a notable uplift in revenue derived from AI-powered workloads, indicating successful alignment with leading-edge technological demands.
  • Revenue for fiscal year 2024 stood at $193 million, up by 5% year-over-year, with a marked improvement in non GAAP gross margins to 62.5%.

Ambarella Inc.: Expansion of Partnerships in Automotive AI Driving Our Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ambarella Inc. recently reported a first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings.
  • The company stated their first quarter revenue was 1% above estimated figures with an increase of 6% on a sequential basis.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) products constituted two-thirds of this revenue.

Nano Dimension – Agreement to acquire Desktop Metal

By Edison Investment Research

Nano Dimension has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Desktop Metal (DM) in an all-cash deal worth $185m ($5.50 per DM share), with potential adjustments that could reduce it to $135m ($4.07 per share). The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and DM shareholder approval and is expected to close in Q424. With complementary product lines, the combined entity will offer a broad range of additive manufacturing solutions covering multiple verticals and materials, supporting the entire value chain from prototyping through to mass manufacturing.


Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.: A Story Of Strategic Content Licensing and Partnership Expansion!

By Baptista Research

  • Lions Gate’s recent business developments and strategic outlook present a mixture of opportunities and challenges.
  • Over the past decade, Lions Gate has transitioned from primarily a Hollywood Studio, heavily reliant on theatrical releases like ‘Twilight’ and ‘Hunger Games’, to being a major player in the streaming space through its acquisition of STARZ in 2016.
  • This pivot has expanded its revenue streams and fortified its position against industry shifts toward digital consumption.

Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • IHRT is expected to experience positive growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by its podcasting business
  • CEO and CFO have been buying stocks, indicating confidence in the company’s future prospects
  • Potential debt restructuring and positive growth could lead to a significant increase in IHRT’s equity value by the end of 2025.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Xerox Holdings Corp (XRX) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Xerox is considered a short position due to being in a declining industry and losing market share, having a leveraged capital structure with rising costs, and facing hidden liabilities
  • The company’s free cash flow is believed to be overstated from receivables financing, making it more expensive than it appears
  • Xerox has been criticized for poor capital allocation, corporate governance issues, and an Icahn greenmail exit, making it a risky investment in a struggling market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Douyu International Holdings, Dell Technologies , Digital Arts, Delta Air Lines and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Screening For The Next Douyu (DOYU US)
  • S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Deriving Forecasts & First Prediction for September
  • Digital Arts: Decision to Deconsolidate DAC Business – A Positive Move
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jul-2024): S. Korea boosts EDA competitiveness.


Screening For The Next Douyu (DOYU US)

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a particularly altruistic move, live-streaming game platform play Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US)  announced a special cash dividend of US$9.76/share, vs. a last price of US$12.59.
  • The cash outlay is roughly US$308mn, and Douyu had cash (as at 1Q24) of US$936.6mn. And no debt.  Founder/chairman/CEO Shaojie Chen (17.2% shareholder) will pocket a tidy ~US$53mn.
  • An outlier; or should we expect more of the same for other cash-rich US-listed China plays?

S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Deriving Forecasts & First Prediction for September

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Index Committee’s discretion decreases the predictability of index changes. Even when a company passes all eligibility criteria and thresholds, it might still not be selected.
  • Understanding triggers for index changes, types of additions/deletions and selection patterns, narrows down the pool of candidates and increases conviction of forecasts.
  • Dell Technologies (DELL US) is currently the main candidate to be added by transition to the S&P 500 in September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance.

Digital Arts: Decision to Deconsolidate DAC Business – A Positive Move

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Digital Arts (2326 JP) , based in Japan offers internet security software and appliances  globally. The company also provides consulting services related to information security.
  • The company’s share price has moved up by more than 30% over the last 30-days driven by DA’s decision to deconsolidate its DAC business.
  • Given the high-cost nature, we welcome Digital Arts’ move to deconsolidate the DAC business as it should help improve the company’s profitability.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jul-2024): S. Korea boosts EDA competitiveness.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • South Korea is prioritizing enhancing its EDA competitiveness to stay ahead in the technological race.
  • China is focusing on consolidating promising chip firms while doubling the terminations of IPOs to control the market.
  • Commodity DRAM and NAND chip prices are stalling due to slow demand recovery, affecting Taiwanese companies and PanelSemi’s development of mini LEDs. Vietnam PM strengthens South Korea relations and secures investments in display production and clean energy. Taiwan is aiming to lead in floating wind technology with a projected global investment of EUR250 billion by 2035.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shinko Electric Industries, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Blackcow Food Co Ltd A, Advanced Process Systems, Keywords Studios, SoundThinking and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Jul-2024): Taiwan to announce offshore wind rules by 3Q24.
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Jul-2024): Taiwan to announce offshore wind rules by 3Q24.
  • EQT/Keywords Studios: Scheme of Arrangement
  • Soundthinking Inc (SSTI) – Wednesday, Apr 3, 2024


Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update

By Travis Lundy

  • When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
  • Nearly 6mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 16+wks ago, recommended taking profits.
  • Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Gross spread is now 4.6% but time is shorter so annualised is 10+% even out to December launch.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Apple Increasing Chip Orders with TSMC — Expecting iPhone 16 Sales to be Much Stronger Than iPhone 15 Thanks to AI
  • Google Said to be Shifting to TSMC from Samsung for Next Generation AI Mobile Phone Chips
  • This June 28th piece appears to be timely — Memory Monitor: Micron’s Shares May Be Falling But Results’ Industry Implications Are Positive

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Jul-2024): Taiwan to announce offshore wind rules by 3Q24.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan plans to release offshore wind regulations by 3Q24, boosting the renewable energy sector’s growth and investment opportunities.
  • Chinese investment in 8.6G OLED technology is boosting the South Korean display equipment industry, leading to potential economic growth.
  • VinFast’s Indian factory may open earlier than expected, while mobile device suppliers show interest in using edge AI to enhance the market.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Jul-2024): Taiwan to announce offshore wind rules by 3Q24.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan set to release offshore wind regulations by 3Q24, opening doors for growth and innovation in the industry.
  • China’s significant investment in OLED technology boosts South Korean display equipment sector, creating opportunities for growth.
  • Telecoms facing challenges with slow 5G adoption, pushing them to adapt and transform strategies to overcome obstacles.

EQT/Keywords Studios: Scheme of Arrangement

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 3 July, PUSU deadline, Bidco and Keywords Studios (KWS LN) have agreed to an acquisition to be carried out through a scheme of arrangement. 
  • Shareholders will receive 2,450p/share in cash, cum dividend, 66.7% premium, for 22.4x Fwd P/E. There’s a minimal number of irrevocables and just 7.57% of capital in letters of intent. 
  • I think the price is reasonable considering the recent challenges affecting the value of the stock, and deal will close. Spread is 2.45%/6.3% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 29 November). Long.

Soundthinking Inc (SSTI) – Wednesday, Apr 3, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Soundthinking (SSTI) is a SaaS company providing technology to law enforcement agencies for enhanced effectiveness
  • Market cap of $200 million and trading at 2x sales, considered cheap compared to growth potential
  • Company has history of 15% annual growth, 60% gross margins expected to increase with expansion, projected revenue growth of 15% over next three years, EBITDA margins expected to reach 32% by 2026, stock predicted to trade at $74 per share with 360% upside from current prices

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, ASM Pacific Technology, Chenqi Technology Limited, Amazon.com Inc, 1Spatial Plc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • NVIDIA’s Conundrum…
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade
  • Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best
  • Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD
  • 1Spatial – Contract wins underpin US growth opportunity


NVIDIA’s Conundrum…

By William Keating

  • NVIDIA’s data center revenues tripled YoY in CY 2023 and are on track to more than double in CY 2024
  • When Intel dominated the data centre and minted tens of billions annually, its customers benefited even more, minting hundreds of billions. 
  • If NVIDIA’s business model succeeds, its customers will succeed even more. This will make it extremely difficult for NVIDIA to remain the #1 global market cap stock. 

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

By Joe Jasper

  • Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
  • This was a possibility we discussed in last week’s Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
  • We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass

1Spatial – Contract wins underpin US growth opportunity

By Edison Investment Research

1Spatial’s announcement of contract wins in the US, spanning a number of products across several states, highlights the company’s progress and opportunity in the world’s largest market for software. It also gives an early indication that management’s investment in strengthening the US business development team could yield good results. In the US 1Spatial now has contracts or framework agreements with 21 states, up from 18 at year-end, with management setting a longer-term ambition of generating $1m in annual recurring revenues from each state.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shift Up, Hollysys Automation Technologies, SenseTime Group , Tesla , Chenqi Technology Limited, Toyo Corp, SK Hynix, Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology, Will Semiconductor Shan and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Finally Obtains Regulatory Approvals
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion
  • Elon Wins $56B Package Re-Vote and Shift to Texas. Now What for Tesla?
  • Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question
  • Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Initiating Coverage
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Jul-2024): India boosts smartphone exports with iPhone manufacturers.
  • Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again


Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up’s IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.
  • Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).

Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Finally Obtains Regulatory Approvals

By Arun George

  • Six months after announcing a binding proposal, Ascendent has obtained all the Chinese regulatory approvals for its US$26.50 Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) offer. 
  • The gross spread was wide due to the information vacuum, which has resulted in various conspiracy theories and rumours circulating.
  • The two remaining conditions required for close are the maximum dissenting cap (should be waived) and minimum net cash condition (satisfied). At the last close, the gross spread was 22.5%.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.
  • Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.
  • Inclusion in the KOSPI 200 looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.

Elon Wins $56B Package Re-Vote and Shift to Texas. Now What for Tesla?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Despite achieving significant milestones, Elon Musk’s $56 billion compensation package was voided in January 2024 due to a flawed approval process, ruled a Delaware judge.
  • Tesla’s shareholders voted to reinstate Musk’s package in June 2024, but the lawsuit continues, and the contract’s future remains uncertain.
  • Tesla faces challenges with slow EV sales growth, rising competition, and the need for lower-cost models, which may impact stock performance despite Musk’s ongoing leadership.

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Initiating Coverage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Toyo Corporation is a trading company specializing in measurement technologies.
  • With several initiatives and strong structural demand in the electric vehicles space in particular, we expect the company to achieve higher revenue and profitability.
  • Higher recurring revenue and proprietary product ratios will support a margin improvement in the future. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Jul-2024): India boosts smartphone exports with iPhone manufacturers.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Indian smartphone exports boosted by iPhone makers as Xiphera introduces quantum security improvements in crypto solutions
  • Ola Electric pioneers solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, while SK Hynix invests $75 billion to dominate HBM Market for AI Chips
  • China nationalizes rare earth resources as airlines struggle with high costs to achieve sustainable fuel goals, Foxconn denies mistreating married women in India

Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology Co., an IT solution provider for enterprise-level users in China, plans to price its IPO by July 10, 2024 and raise ~HK$664M.
  • CICC is leading the offering in Hong Kong and the IPO is expected to be priced at HK$152.10 per H share, implying a market cap of ~HK$5.4B or ~$690M.
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~1.8M H shares, representing 41% of the offer shares or ~5% of the total outstanding shares.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.8bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought. 

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