Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.
We are positive on Sea as digital entertainment (Garena), the cash cow, remains in rude health and its newer e-commerce business (Shopee) is a market leader, rapidly growing and reducing its losses. Overall, we would participate in the public offering at or below the last close price of $23.
Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.
The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates.
Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement.
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Naver Corp (035420 KS) is nearing tactical support for a trading buy but continues to face macro bear pressure stemming from key resistances note in the weekly RSI and MACD postures. This bear pressure is due to resume after a bounce sequence.
Naver has broken down out of triangulation after completing a corrective bounce cycle outlined in our recent update. Naver Bull Wedge to Trade Higher . We are now resuming the macro down cycle and view tactical rallies as selling opportunities as the major trend remains down.
A Kospi 200 rise above 290 will play a role in lifting Naver in the outlined tactical bounce cycle.
The 4Q18 numbers released by the Malaysia wireless operators, showed stable trends vs 3Q. Market service revenue growth of -1.1% YoY was stable, with Maxis (MAXIS MK) the only operator able to slightly increase its market share (again). While 2H18 marked a small break in the Malaysian wireless sector recovery, guidance for 2019 looks broadly encouraging.
Axiata (AXIATA MK) expects a “promising 2019” with revenue and profit growth momentum (across the board),
Maxis guides for a slight improvement of revenues, albeit with EBITDA declining due to new business opportunities, and
DIGI (DIGI MK) which is a bit more cautious, expects flat revenues.
Data usage is already very high in Malaysia, but we expect growth to continue (at a slower pace) supported by youthful demographics (younger people use more video on mobile). The Malaysian operators have done a reasonable job at monetizing data growth so far.
Chris Hoare turned more positive on Malaysian telcos in early 2019 as affordability has improved and there is a new profitable growth opportunity in fibre wholesale (with Telekom Malaysia (T MK) being forced to offer at low prices). Operating trends have also improved and we expect this to continue. In January, we upgraded Axiata to Buy and both Maxis and Digi to Neutral. None of them are “cheap” with Maxis (MAXIS MK) and DIGI (DIGI MK) on 11-13x EV:EBITDA, and Axiata on a more reasonable 6.5x.
This is a monthly version of our HK Connect Weekly note, in which I highlight Hong Kong-listed companies leading the southbound flow weekly. Over the past month, we have seen the flow turned from outflow in February to inflow in March. Chinese investors were also buying Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary stocks.
Our March Coverage of Hong Kong Connect southbound flow
Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 – a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows – a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software
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Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.
The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates.
Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
The 4Q18 numbers released by the Malaysia wireless operators, showed stable trends vs 3Q. Market service revenue growth of -1.1% YoY was stable, with Maxis (MAXIS MK) the only operator able to slightly increase its market share (again). While 2H18 marked a small break in the Malaysian wireless sector recovery, guidance for 2019 looks broadly encouraging.
Axiata (AXIATA MK) expects a “promising 2019” with revenue and profit growth momentum (across the board),
Maxis guides for a slight improvement of revenues, albeit with EBITDA declining due to new business opportunities, and
DIGI (DIGI MK) which is a bit more cautious, expects flat revenues.
Data usage is already very high in Malaysia, but we expect growth to continue (at a slower pace) supported by youthful demographics (younger people use more video on mobile). The Malaysian operators have done a reasonable job at monetizing data growth so far.
Chris Hoare turned more positive on Malaysian telcos in early 2019 as affordability has improved and there is a new profitable growth opportunity in fibre wholesale (with Telekom Malaysia (T MK) being forced to offer at low prices). Operating trends have also improved and we expect this to continue. In January, we upgraded Axiata to Buy and both Maxis and Digi to Neutral. None of them are “cheap” with Maxis (MAXIS MK) and DIGI (DIGI MK) on 11-13x EV:EBITDA, and Axiata on a more reasonable 6.5x.
This is a monthly version of our HK Connect Weekly note, in which I highlight Hong Kong-listed companies leading the southbound flow weekly. Over the past month, we have seen the flow turned from outflow in February to inflow in March. Chinese investors were also buying Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary stocks.
Our March Coverage of Hong Kong Connect southbound flow
Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 – a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows – a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software
BabyTree (1761.HK)’s reported results for FY2018 continues to be impacted by the ‘shift in e-commerce strategy’ post collaboration with Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (also a key investor). China’s leading parenting community platform that went public in November 2018 has announced a revenue decline of 4% during 2H2018; its e-commerce revenues were down 70% as its being ‘integrated’ with Alibaba. This is expected to be completed by 2Q2019. While the details of the collaboration (and revenue share, if any) are not given, Management has stated that Alibaba will manage the back-end e-commerce at a reduced cost and better efficiency while it will ‘manage’ users. Despite the fall in revenues, gross profits were up 18% helped by growth in advertisement revenues which now account for 85% of the total. Advertising as a revenue source has limited long term growth and valuation potential compared to e-commerce. The stock is up 25% since results announcement on March 27th, likely enthused by Net profit for FY2018 at Rmb526.2 mn and EPS of Rmb0.29 (implied current Year P/E of 23x). Key risk will be failure to revive e-commerce revenues post ‘integration’.
BabyTree also announced its first global foray – it has invested USD8mn in Healofy, amongst the top 3 leading parenting apps in India currently. India’s online Parenting app segment has numerous players and revenue generation/growth may not be easy in the near term for Healofy. However, our analysis suggests that India’s overcrowded parenting app segment is now witnessing consolidation and this funding could probably help Healofy solidify its ranking amongst top 3 parenting platforms in India. In this context, BabyTree’s foray into India seems well timed. Healofy could potentially follow BabyTree’s operating model and fit into Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) ‘s India e-commerce strategy (Refer our earlier report Alibaba’s India Game Plan – More than Meets the Eye; Investor Day Analysis (Part II) ).
In the detailed report that follows, we briefly comment on BabyTree’s reported 2018 results and also present a quick overview of India Parenting App segment – key players, investors and why we think it may be on a consolidation mode.
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Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) corrective cycle does not appear complete with risk of a final spike lower below key pivot support. It is this crack lower that we want to take advantage of.
Sell volume spike implies the flat range will break lower.
Daily cycle triangulation sides with a press below pivot support. An upside break of this triangle would trigger a tactical long but would lack needed gas for a sustainable drive.
Weekly MACD is seeking a bottoming/basing cycle that will turn the cycle higher once we see a final capitulation spike below pivot support as we did back in 2008, 2010 and 2012.
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This is a monthly version of our HK Connect Weekly note, in which I highlight Hong Kong-listed companies leading the southbound flow weekly. Over the past month, we have seen the flow turned from outflow in February to inflow in March. Chinese investors were also buying Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary stocks.
Our March Coverage of Hong Kong Connect southbound flow
Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 – a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows – a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software
BabyTree (1761.HK)’s reported results for FY2018 continues to be impacted by the ‘shift in e-commerce strategy’ post collaboration with Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (also a key investor). China’s leading parenting community platform that went public in November 2018 has announced a revenue decline of 4% during 2H2018; its e-commerce revenues were down 70% as its being ‘integrated’ with Alibaba. This is expected to be completed by 2Q2019. While the details of the collaboration (and revenue share, if any) are not given, Management has stated that Alibaba will manage the back-end e-commerce at a reduced cost and better efficiency while it will ‘manage’ users. Despite the fall in revenues, gross profits were up 18% helped by growth in advertisement revenues which now account for 85% of the total. Advertising as a revenue source has limited long term growth and valuation potential compared to e-commerce. The stock is up 25% since results announcement on March 27th, likely enthused by Net profit for FY2018 at Rmb526.2 mn and EPS of Rmb0.29 (implied current Year P/E of 23x). Key risk will be failure to revive e-commerce revenues post ‘integration’.
BabyTree also announced its first global foray – it has invested USD8mn in Healofy, amongst the top 3 leading parenting apps in India currently. India’s online Parenting app segment has numerous players and revenue generation/growth may not be easy in the near term for Healofy. However, our analysis suggests that India’s overcrowded parenting app segment is now witnessing consolidation and this funding could probably help Healofy solidify its ranking amongst top 3 parenting platforms in India. In this context, BabyTree’s foray into India seems well timed. Healofy could potentially follow BabyTree’s operating model and fit into Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) ‘s India e-commerce strategy (Refer our earlier report Alibaba’s India Game Plan – More than Meets the Eye; Investor Day Analysis (Part II) ).
In the detailed report that follows, we briefly comment on BabyTree’s reported 2018 results and also present a quick overview of India Parenting App segment – key players, investors and why we think it may be on a consolidation mode.
It was reported over the weekend that the troubled display supplier to iPhone maker Apple, Japan Display (JDI) has almost finalized a deal to raise more than JPY110bn (US$990m) from a China-Taiwan consortium and Japanese public-private fund INCJ Ltd.
The China-Taiwan consortium is expected to secure some 50% stake in Japan Display while the top shareholder INCJ’s current stake of 25.3% is expected to be halved.
The consortium is aiming to restructure JDI’s remaining debt payments of about JPY100bn from Apple for the construction of its plant while it also aims to procure parts for the latest iPhone. In addition, the consortium is also trying to modify a contract stipulating that Apple can seize plants if JDI’s cash and deposits fall below a certain amount.
The consortium along with JDI is planning to build an OLED panel plant in China with JDI providing the technological know-how while the consortium partners invest in capital expenditures and equity.
Japan Display has been struggling to navigate its display business due to the slowdown in iPhone sales, falling behind competition on OLED technology and facing stiff price competition from Chinese panel makers.
We expect the proposed OLED plant in China could help the company stabilize its panel business with Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi who prefer to source panels locally from domestic panel makers such as BOE Technology and Tianma.
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This is a monthly version of our HK Connect Weekly note, in which I highlight Hong Kong-listed companies leading the southbound flow weekly. Over the past month, we have seen the outflow continue from January. In February, we have seen Chinese investors were selling Tencent in February after buying Tencent in January. Chinese investors were also buying domestic automotive manufacturers and Macau gaming sectors.
Our February Coverage of Hong Kong Connect southbound flow
* We believe that the stagnancy in membership was due to the new competitor Ke.com and will make total revenues more volatile in the future.
* We assume total revenues will slow down, but the operating margin will be stable in 2019.
* We compare WUBA’s expected P/E for 2019 with other vertical platforms in China and conclude 17% downside.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 – a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows – a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software
BabyTree (1761.HK)’s reported results for FY2018 continues to be impacted by the ‘shift in e-commerce strategy’ post collaboration with Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (also a key investor). China’s leading parenting community platform that went public in November 2018 has announced a revenue decline of 4% during 2H2018; its e-commerce revenues were down 70% as its being ‘integrated’ with Alibaba. This is expected to be completed by 2Q2019. While the details of the collaboration (and revenue share, if any) are not given, Management has stated that Alibaba will manage the back-end e-commerce at a reduced cost and better efficiency while it will ‘manage’ users. Despite the fall in revenues, gross profits were up 18% helped by growth in advertisement revenues which now account for 85% of the total. Advertising as a revenue source has limited long term growth and valuation potential compared to e-commerce. The stock is up 25% since results announcement on March 27th, likely enthused by Net profit for FY2018 at Rmb526.2 mn and EPS of Rmb0.29 (implied current Year P/E of 23x). Key risk will be failure to revive e-commerce revenues post ‘integration’.
BabyTree also announced its first global foray – it has invested USD8mn in Healofy, amongst the top 3 leading parenting apps in India currently. India’s online Parenting app segment has numerous players and revenue generation/growth may not be easy in the near term for Healofy. However, our analysis suggests that India’s overcrowded parenting app segment is now witnessing consolidation and this funding could probably help Healofy solidify its ranking amongst top 3 parenting platforms in India. In this context, BabyTree’s foray into India seems well timed. Healofy could potentially follow BabyTree’s operating model and fit into Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) ‘s India e-commerce strategy (Refer our earlier report Alibaba’s India Game Plan – More than Meets the Eye; Investor Day Analysis (Part II) ).
In the detailed report that follows, we briefly comment on BabyTree’s reported 2018 results and also present a quick overview of India Parenting App segment – key players, investors and why we think it may be on a consolidation mode.
It was reported over the weekend that the troubled display supplier to iPhone maker Apple, Japan Display (JDI) has almost finalized a deal to raise more than JPY110bn (US$990m) from a China-Taiwan consortium and Japanese public-private fund INCJ Ltd.
The China-Taiwan consortium is expected to secure some 50% stake in Japan Display while the top shareholder INCJ’s current stake of 25.3% is expected to be halved.
The consortium is aiming to restructure JDI’s remaining debt payments of about JPY100bn from Apple for the construction of its plant while it also aims to procure parts for the latest iPhone. In addition, the consortium is also trying to modify a contract stipulating that Apple can seize plants if JDI’s cash and deposits fall below a certain amount.
The consortium along with JDI is planning to build an OLED panel plant in China with JDI providing the technological know-how while the consortium partners invest in capital expenditures and equity.
Japan Display has been struggling to navigate its display business due to the slowdown in iPhone sales, falling behind competition on OLED technology and facing stiff price competition from Chinese panel makers.
We expect the proposed OLED plant in China could help the company stabilize its panel business with Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi who prefer to source panels locally from domestic panel makers such as BOE Technology and Tianma.
On Monday, Bilibili Inc (BILI US) unveiled plans to raise around $192 million (based on the closing price of $18.95 per ADS) through a public offering of 10.6 million ADS and a concurrent offering of $300 million convertible senior notes. Also, certain selling shareholders will offer 6.5 ADS in the offering.
We believe bilibili’s fundamentals are mixed as rapid monthly active users (MAUs) and non-mobile games growth is offset by a declining margin and higher cash burn. Overall, the proposed offering is unnecessary and highly opportunistic, and we would not participate in the offering.
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* We believe that the stagnancy in membership was due to the new competitor Ke.com and will make total revenues more volatile in the future.
* We assume total revenues will slow down, but the operating margin will be stable in 2019.
* We compare WUBA’s expected P/E for 2019 with other vertical platforms in China and conclude 17% downside.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.
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Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
