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In this briefing:
- ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas
- UUUM (3990) Phenomenal Growth but at a Price.
- China Tower Results Confirm Lower Capex Outlook, but Were Otherwise Mixed
- Speedcast: Back on Track
1. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas
Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
It has been a fairly hectic week. We have been busy writing on upcoming IPOs, post-IPO events, and, to top it all off, there were four placements (Sea Ltd, RHB Bank, Xinyi Solar, and China Gas) this week.
Hong Kong’s ECM activity seems to be picking up momentum. Starting off with approvals, Viva Biotech (1577881D HK) and Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) filed their respective PHIP on HKEX. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM had previously written on Viva Biotech here while we are currently working on Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) and also heard that Dongzheng Auto Finance had already kicked off pre-marketing on Monday.
For upcoming IPOs with completed bookbuilds, Yincheng International Holding (1902 HK) traded flat on debut (expected for a small and leveraged developer) while Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK), which had Ctrip and GreenTree as cornerstone investors, will list next Monday.
As for early coverage on IPOs, Sumeet Singh had already given a broad overview of ESR Cayman (ESR HK)‘s business. He will be following up with more detailed analyses in the coming weeks.
In the US, Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) debuted well on Friday, trading up to as high as US$17 per share before closing just above US$15 but still well above the IPO price. We had been slightly more conservative because it is not exactly a very exciting company doing something groundbreaking but the management background in tech appears strong and there are no corporate governance issues.Sumeet Singh will update on trading liquidity and post-IPO analysis next week.
For pipeline IPOs, we heard that Ehang is planning its US IPO and it is looking to raise about US$500m. This is the Chinese drone manufacturer which made waves just over a year ago with a video of a team testing its autonomous aerial vehicle shown in the video below. Suffice to say, if and when the IPO launches, it will be interesting.
Ruhnn had also filed for IPO this week and we heard that pre-marketing will start next week while bookbuild will likely launch end of the month. This is an Alibaba-backed e-commerce influencer platform and we will be analyzing the company soon.
We had also been exploring potential trade ideas surrounding lock-up expiry such as Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers and Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry. NIO’s lock-up expiry had been an unfortunate case of poor outlook guidance in Q4 coinciding with lock-up expiry coming on the week after (11th March).
Accuracy Rate:
Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements
(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)
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New IPO filings
- Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
- Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
- Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
- Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
- Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)
Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.
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News on Upcoming IPOs
- Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
- Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
- PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20
Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO
- Lyft IPO Preview
- Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
- LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
- Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
- Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
- Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
- Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis
2. UUUM (3990) Phenomenal Growth but at a Price.
This has been a fantastic performer. Since our buy note one year ago, the shares are up just over 3 times. Earnings growth has been very strong, and much better than we had anticipated. The story is even better now than it was then. Unfortunately, the valuations are not! The company is very focussed on growing revenue for the time being. If one is happy to buy a very fast growing new business, then this is still worth looking at.
3. China Tower Results Confirm Lower Capex Outlook, but Were Otherwise Mixed
China Tower (788 HK) reported 4Q18 results that looks slightly disappointing. However, they did deliver strong net profit, confirmation that capex is likely to materially undershoot guidance, and the first dividend for the company. However, while that is positive, there were areas of disappointment, with weaker revenue growth and EBITDA.
Our view remains that China Tower’s shares are relatively undervalued and expect share prices to continue to move higher over time, as the stock reflects its inflecting ROIC. It remains our favored name in China given the risks of policy driven over-investment into 5G (see Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade).
4. Speedcast: Back on Track
Speedcast International (SDA AU) recently reported FY18 (Dec YE) results which showed a solid recovery in 2H. That has allowed the stock to start to recover from a torrid 1H18 performance which saw targets missed. The strong recovery in operating performance in 2H18 has allowed Ian Martin to reset forecasts and he now looks for the EBITDA margin to increase steadily as acquisitions are bedded down. By FY20, we expect Speedcast to be in a much stronger position as rising cash flow leads to lower debts. We have a new 12m target price of A$4.40 based on 11.7x FY20F EPS. We expect SpeedCast to be in a materially better operating position as it moves into FY20, and good cash flow will be used to reduce debt through the year. Operating execution in 1H19 is crucial.
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