Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• U.S. stocks showed a “slightly bullish” trend this week, driven by stronger-than-expected September Retail Sales, which pushed the S&P 500 up 0.9%
• Japan’s stock market experienced a volatile week, with the Nikkei 225 Index declining 1.6% and the broader Topix Index down 0.6%
• ASML’s cautious guidance hit Japanese SPE Stocks, but AI-related chip demand remains “insane” according to TSMC

• Precious Metals and the associated equities have been a high-conviction investment idea for us in 2024
• Gold is up 39% YTD and a representative index of gold miners is up 32%
• Should we take the money and run? Is it over?

• The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarises the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
• Macro data points: Chinese inflation, net exports, GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales data.
• Companies mentioned:Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT), Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), Baidu (9888 HK)

• Australia has recommended against the approval of Eisai Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi. Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu received conditional approval in China for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer.
• Nihon Kohden has revised its financial forecasts for H1FY25. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences’ toripalimab has been approved for marketing in India for treatment of recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
• Akeso Biopharma raised ~$250M, for funding its R&D activities. Celltrion has filed phase 3 clinical trial application in Europe for Cosentyx biosimilar in patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis.

• Reportedly, Government of Pakistan is planning to enter into agreement with 5 power producers in Pakistan for premature termination of their Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). This includes 2 listed names, i.e. base power plant for Hub Power (HUBC), and Lalpir Power Limited (LPL), and 1 indirect listed name, Roush Power (through Altern Energy), and 2 unlisted players, Saba Power and Atlas Power.
• Based on the news reports, 4 of the above are set to sign agreement with the Governments, while 1 (HUBC) is expected to sign it soon.
• The objective behind early termination of these plants is to avoid any further capacity payments to the producers, thus taking one step ahead out of many to reduce power cost in the country. This step may result in benefit of Rs0.6/Kwh, as per news.

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• China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;
• We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;
• JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.

• Minister of MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban Development) said on October 16th that MOHURD planned to renovate 1mn more shanty houses via 100% cash exchange by year end;
• We estimate this would inject Rmb0.5-1tn to the hands of shanty town residents. If all these money are putt into the property market, it can drive up transaction by 3-7%;
• However, property transaction showed existing home sales growth slowed in September and new home sales remained in negative. The real estate market is in dire need of further stimulus.

• We have launched our new website with a revamped research portal – Home | Auctus Advisors.
• We’d be very interested to receive any feedback you may have.
• AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: Encouraging drilling results.

• Real Estate Industry Update: Press Conference of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Restarting Monetized Resettlement May Drive a 3%-7% Increase in Property Transactions Value(+)
• 1585 HK/NIU US/603529 CH: Shanghai announces trade-in subsidy for electric bikes (+/+/+)
• 1211HK/1810HK/XPEVUS/NIOUS/LIUS:Electric vehicle sales surged in the 41st week of 2024, BYD,Xiaomi,andXpeng took the lead, Tesla was unexpectedly weak,and Aion did not enter the top ten for the second week (/////////)

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, up 161 points (0.37%) to 43,239, as strong economic data eased recession fears
• TSMC predicted continued strong AI chip demand, forecasting server-related chip demand to triple in 2024.
• Couche-Tard CEO Alex Miller is in Tokyo seeking a meeting with Seven & i’s management;  they declined to meet.

• August’s WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
• Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
• There’s valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales

• Although the H-share securities companies have retreated significantly from their peaks, there are still “fats” in their share prices in the near term, relative to the market turnover.
• Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) looks vulnerable given its high valuations, low H-A share discount, limited correction from its peak, and significant rebound from the trough.
• China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) appears exposed though valuations are not high. It has the best YTD performance and rebound from the trough, and its H-A share discount is light.   

• TSMC gains largely failed to buoy the US SPE names, with many continuing to drop setting a similar tone for Japan peers.
• Travelers +9% on better than expected earnings and less Hurricane impact will continue to help the JP non-life.
• Sumitomo Forestry has corrected significantly and now looks ready to rebound and join its US peers hovering close to their all-time highs.

• This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
• We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
• We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources

• Ducksheet announces a big event with OG of aluminum at the end of the week
• West Gold quarterly update shows lower cash balance than expected, with reasons for decrease discussed
• Investments and transactions post-merger with Corora impact cash balance and future growth plans discussed

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Tencent’s <Peacekeeper> saw a strong player return and robust revenue performance due to introducing new gameplay modes, with projected gross billings for 2024 expected to exceed RMB 20 billion.
• <DnF Mobile> continues to perform well, maintaining high popularity, leading to an upward revision of its annual revenue forecast.
• New games <Civilization Mobile> and <Need for Speed Mobile> experienced a sharp decline in popularity, and with a late release, their contribution to 2024 revenue is expected to be limited.

• AMD showing strong increases in CPU architecture and market share, particularly in AI accelerators
• Launch of the Mi 325 X accelerator with improved specs and benchmarks against Nvidia’s products
• Critique of AMD’s prioritization of data center over client solutions, but overall still competitive with Nvidia and gaining traction in the market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• JD US/BABA US/1810 HK: Jiangsu Province adds seven new products to the list of appliances eligible for subsidies(+/+/+)
• 700 HK: Tencent’s MOBA Game <Pokémon Unite> Mobile Version Set for Release on November 7(+)
• 700 HK: Tencent-owned Riot Games Announces Layoffs, Offering Severance of at Least Six Months’ Salary, Aiming to Keep <League of Legends> Thriving for 15 More Years(/)

• U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising nearly 350 points (0.8%) to a record 43,077
• Chip stocks rebounded, led by Nvidia’s 3.1% recovery after ASML’s cut to its 2025 sales forecast initially dented confidence in AI-related stocks.
• Sony acquired Kinatrax, a U.S. company specializing in athlete movement analysis using high-speed cameras.

• US restrictions for Huawei suppliers has the potential for block exports for a variety of non-leading-edge chipmaking equipment to China. 
• ASML confirms its EUV slowdown which is negative for Hoya Corp as a leading global supplier of EUV mask blanks. Lasertec -13.4% yesterday, although it may struggle to rebound 
• PM Ishiba making an offering at the Yasukuni Shrine has the potential to rile China, although Japan’s tourist arrivals in Sep hit +26% above 2019 pre-CV levels. 

• It has become evident that Chinese economy needs stimulus. But why is it not happening? The latest by NDRC and MOF suggests US rate and presidential election are the keys;
• What has come forward in the forms of local government debt swap and bank reserve injection is similar to fueling a liquid-fueled missile. Once it starts, it can’t roll back;
• The biggest swing factor from US presidential election is the Trump Tariff, which can cut China’s GDP growth by half. The fueling hopefully can handle impact of such magnitude.

• BlackRock and Jio Financial Discuss Private Credit Venture in India
• Tata Group to Create 5,00,000 Jobs in next Five Years
• Indian Oil and Ever Enviro Partner for Compressed Biogas Production

• Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) plans India’s largest IPO, valued at Rs. 27,870 crore.
• Historical data shows large IPOs often underperform, raising concerns about valuation and market timing.
• Caution is essential; analyzing fundamentals over hype is crucial for IPO investments.

• U.S. stocks retreated Thursday as crude oil prices dropped and technology shares weakened. The S&P 500 slipped 0.8%.
• ASML revised its 2025 sales forecast downward, citing sustained semiconductor market weakness outside of AI-related chips
• Nvidia shares fell 4.5% after reports that the Biden administration might restrict U.S. chip exports to Persian Gulf countries for national security.

• Japan SPE set for a big pullback after a terrible ASML order outlook.
• EUV related plays will be under pressure including Lasertec and Hoya.
• Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, with rails in focus after Tokyo Metro IPO priced top of range.

• Macro News Update: Weak Household Loan Data in September Highlights Urgency for Consumption Stimulus
• Macro News Update : Scholars within China’s government system indicates more incremental stimulus policies are on the way.
• Macro News Update : Positive read thru on the Ministry of Finance press release(+)

• BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US: Tmall shares recent growth figures and Double 11 initiatives (+/-/-/-)
• BABA US/PDD US/SHEIN/4385 JP/4689 JP: AliExpress and Cainiao expand 5-day delivery to three additional countries including Japan (+/-/-)
• BABA US/JD US/PDD US: Alibaba launches upgraded AI-based store management tool (+/-/-)

• JSW Renew Energy Signs 700 MW Solar Agreement with NTPC
• SC Revives Adani’s INR 27,000 Crore Insolvency Resolution for KSK Mahanadi
• Zomato Xtreme Relaunches with Renewed Focus on the Food Delivery

• Monthly data for job vacancies in Australia continues to weaken sequentially
• Australian HFD on bankruptcies and insolvencies has been weak for some time
• Risk is that credit metrics of Australian banks remain poor, continuing what we see for many at present

• US semis and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE with NVDA closing at record highs.
• Steep drop for oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners while US P&C strength should also be reflected in JP peers.
• Possible downside for Fujitsu with NTT Docomo announcing a pivot away from their base station equipment.

• U.S. stock markets reached new heights on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average setting fresh records.
• Tech stocks led the day’s gains, with chip giant Nvidia rising nearly 3% to close at a new high above $138 per share
• Shin-Etsu Chemical, the leading silicon wafer producer, plans to enter semiconductor manufacturing equipment business.

• We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
• Last week, SRRK gained from muscle-building data in SMA, with positive read-through for obesity and BHVN.
• WW joined HIMS in selling NVO GLP-1 copies, while the FDA backed off on LLY copiers after a lawsuit.

• Furniture and furnishing stocks underperformed the broader market this week.
• The Water Tower Research Commercial/Contract Furniture Index (-0.5%), Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (-2.4%), and Home Goods Retailers Index (-1.1%) trailed the DJ30 and S&P 500 (both +2.1%) and the R2K (+1.7%).
• The Water Tower Research Mass Retailers Index was up (+3.2%).

• CSPC Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive license agreement with AstraZeneca for the global development, manufacture, and commercialization bad cholesterol lowering drug candidate YS2302018.
• Ono Pharmaceutical entered into a license agreement with LigaChem Biosciences for LCB97, a pre-clinical stage antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) aimed at being a first-in-class drug in the field of solid tumors.
• The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has issued final ruling in favor of Hugel. This should accelerate Hugel’s business expansion in the U.S.

• Resilient macro data fueled an all-time high for the S&P 500 (+1.1% week-on-week), suggesting continued optimism in the market.
• In Japan, equities performed well with the Nikkei +2.5% and Topix +0.5% higher as earnings remained supportive.
• With earnings reports from major companies like ASML, DISCO, and TSMC approaching, semiconductor stocks may dictate overall market moves next week.

• Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier
• Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year. 
• For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space. 

• GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$26 per share: Downtime and blockades continue to impact production.
• All eyes on Argentina – 3Q24 production was 33,215 boe/d with production in Colombia still impacted by downtime and blockades (we expected 34.6 mboe/d).
• Production at Llanos-34 continues to decline.

• The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarises the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
• Macro data points: China NDRC press briefing, South Korean interest rates
• Companies mentioned:Tencent (700 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

• Tech largely down in the US after AMD’s AI event failed to impress with somewhat conflicting CPI and jobless data.
• A strong print for Fast Retailing will add to short-seller woes although some brokers have started cutting estimates after the outsized move.
• 7&I announced a flurry of restructuring initiatives aimed at raising corporate value and fending off Couche-Tard before its too late.

• Resourceful Auto’s IPO saw a staggering subscription of 400 times, but its current market price is half its IPO value, revealing a troubling trend in SME IPOs.
• Many SME IPOs exhibit a “subscription mirage,” creating misleading impressions of value, while underlying businesses often lack sustainable operations and liquidity.
• Investors must prioritize fundamental analysis and awareness of liquidity risks over hype, especially in a market increasingly resembling Ponzi-like characteristics.

• NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/LI US: Electric vehicle sales were strong during the two weeks of the National Day holiday, with NIO, Leap, Zeekr, Xiaomi and Tesla performing better(///////)
• Consumer sector: Steady Growth in Catering and Retail Consumption During the National Day Holiday(+)
• Consumer sector: WeChat reports 20% YoY increase in transaction volume during National Day Holiday (+)

• Transition from the Internet era of servers to the AI era of backend
• Software advancements are outpacing silicon capabilities
• Question raised about who will benefit from advances in AI technology, particularly in terms of hardware market competitiveness

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• We must recognize the wide variance in credit growth rates across Asian countries
• There are critical implications for differences in net interest income growth and profit
• Credit metrics also tend to move in tandem with loan growth rates, as does GDP growth

• One of the sectors we like for the next phase of the Japanese stock market
• The market is not giving the benefit of the doubt to monetisation of its property portfolio
• The core  railway business is back to pre-Covid 19  levels

• 3690 HK: Meituan’s Overseas Version, Keeta, Launches in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia(/)
• PDD US/BABA US/JD US: PDD to provide double compensation for overpriced product (//-/-)
• 700 HK/BABA US: Taobao now accessible through webpages in WeChat (+/+)

• Stocks advanced for a second straight session Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at record highs
• Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba dissolved parliament for an October 27 snap election, seeking mandate amid low public support due to a fundraising scandal
• Canadian retailer Couche-Tard has increased its takeover offer for Seven & i Holdings to $47 billion, up from $38.5 billion

• Risk on sentiment takes hold ahead of key CPI print tomorrow; yen weakness will drive the NKY higher.
• Big gains for Japanese department store duty-free sales over the Chinese Golden week holiday bodes well for the likes of Isetan Mitsukoshi.
• Cat 5 Hurricane Milton making landfall should put further pressure on the JP non-life/P&C plays Sompo, MS&AD and Tokio Marine.

• There is a sharp and accelerating rise in deposits with Hong Kong’s banks, likely from Mainland China in part
• There is no offsetting lending volume, where loan growth remains still negative, not a positive combination for net interest income
• The LDR for Hong Kong’s banks is fast approaching the distressed levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

• At least 10% deposits will invest in Chinese stocks in the future.Together with US$2 trillion capital that stranded overseas will flow back, 3,500 Shanghai Composite Index is just the beginning.
• After the monetary policy, we expect to have accompanying fiscal stimulus policies introduced. However, short-term challenge lies in the uncertainty of macro environment that potential depression/Middle East war might bring.
• Investors can consider taking profits in time for the surge in Chinese stocks,and then prepare to position themselves for the inflation trade opportunities that the dollar depreciation will bring later.

• We analyzed the historical data of wars and its impact on financial markets.
• Nifty 50’s performance shows short-term fluctuations post-conflict but generally stabilizes, highlighting market resilience and investor sentiment shifts during uncertainty.
• Diversification, Long term investment perspective and Govt Bonds help in these kind of situation to make portfolio stable.