Thematic (Sector/Industry)

March revenue numbers from the Taiwan semi ecosystem are surprisingly good.
The sequential decline in Q1 2023 PC unit shipments was at the low end of the predicted range
Quanta, a leading ODM Direct Server manufacturer, had an unexpectedly strong first quarter.

GEM Weekly (14 Apr 2023): Chinese Trade Data, South Korean Rates; Alibaba, Tencent, Prosus, Didi

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: South Korean interest rates, Chinese CPI and trade data
Companies mentioned:Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Softbank Group (9984 JP), Tencent (700 HK), Prosus (PRX NA), DiDi Global (DIDI US)

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Apr 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Buffet in Japan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Buffet in Japan, Fast Retailing, Trading Houses

Japan Weekly | Buffet in Japan, Fast Retailing, Trading Houses

Globally stocks were strong this week. Ditto for Japan where the Nikkei and Topix indexes finished the week 3.5% and 2.7% higher, respectively
The biggest news of the week was that Warren Buffet visited Japan, met with trading companies that he owns, and said he may buy more
Fast Retailing was the standout performer this week, surprising the market with a strong Q2 report

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Short Note: China Prop FY22 Results and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Short Note: China Prop FY22 Results, Physical Market Uneven Recovery and Sunac’s Trading Resumption
Consolidation Begets Pricing Power – Is This Illusory?
[Gaming Sector Update]: AIGC: Short-Term Catalyst, Long-Term Challenge

Short Note: China Prop FY22 Results, Physical Market Uneven Recovery and Sunac’s Trading Resumption

By Jacob Cheng

Full year 2022 annual results indicate that SOEs CRL and COLI are holding up, while smaller developers are still under liquidity pressure
In terms of the physical market, contract sales rebound strongly in Q1, with SOEs to gain market share over POEs
Sunac announced resume trading today (down 53%), but sector risk is still here. Part of the risk is priced in at current valuation for sector, but SOEs are not cheap

Consolidation Begets Pricing Power – Is This Illusory?

By Nurture Capital Advisory

Oligopolistic structures, market dominance doesn’t necessarily translate into pricing power.
As some consumer focusing firms aren’t price takers and their business inherently cyclical – sustaining premium valuations are at risk.
A dominant co., in a mega trend or amidst underlying structural change could be a formidable play to sustain both – pricing power and premium valuations.

[Gaming Sector Update]: AIGC: Short-Term Catalyst, Long-Term Challenge

We suggest that AIGC will be a short-term driver for the major companies in the online gaming industry. It could assist the rise of small-to-mid-size companies in the long run.
In the next 1-2 years, we expect that Tencent and NetEase’s EPS may improve by 13%/24% because of AIGC.
By adding more AIGC functions, Unity may also increase customers’ retentions in the near term. Maintain BUY to Tencent, NetEase, and Unity.

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Apr 13

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Fed Minutes Sinks Equities; NUGGET:Japan Post－Capital Mgmt and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |Fed Minutes Sinks Equities; NUGGET:Japan Post－Capital Mgmt, DX, Drones; Low PBR
The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42
The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 40
China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!
A Different View on Global CDMO – The Industry Trend, the Major Players, and the Outlook
Nanya Q1 2023 Revenue Declines 19.2% QoQ
China TMT Updfate(Apr.13)- Nio/700hk/Baba:Alibaba Unveils Plans for LLM AI and Cloud Price Cuts (+)

Good Morning Japan |Fed Minutes Sinks Equities; NUGGET:Japan Post－Capital Mgmt, DX, Drones; Low PBR

OVERSEAS. Inflation Benign but Fed Minutes point to (mild) recession with Hawkish bent for addl rate hikes; US Equities close in the red, giving up early CPI driven gains
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% vs CASH; USDJPY 133.1; Japan Population falls below 125 million in 2022 – increases worries on low birthrate/aging society; Activists gear up ahead of Japan AGM
NUGGET. Japan Post (6178) – this low pbr stock is undergoing transformation in many areas – from balance sheet to operations. If they can execute….

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 40

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Four stock remains, and 10 stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 106% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 61%

China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Foreign exchange gains/losses are major swing factors in FY22 results of many companies and we think investors may have overlooked their importance in driving FY23 earnings.
With Rmb/USD exchange rate appreciated YTD, reversing the 8.5% depreciation in last year, the demons of many companies in last year will become positive earnings contributor.
Shenzhen International (152 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK) are key beneficiaries, while CIMC Enric (3899 HK) may turned into exchange losses.

A Different View on Global CDMO – The Industry Trend, the Major Players, and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The market of biopharmaceuticals and CDMO keeps growing, with CAGR of about 10%. However, CGT is the “outlier”. The whole story of CGT business isn’t persuasive at the current stage.
Lonza is still the leader.WuXi bio has secured the second place. Samsung Biologics is catching up in terms of profit margin. Different production capacity structures can bring about different changes.
Industry concentration of CDMO would further increase, making it difficult for new entrants to seize orders from Top CDMOs.We advise investors not to spend too much time on small CDMOs.

Nanya Q1 2023 Revenue Declines 19.2% QoQ

ASPs & bit shipments decreased by high single digits percent QoQ
Anticipated recovery in H2 ’23 will be slow & gradual
The potential for inventory write-downs remains a headwind but March revenue MoM increase is a hopeful sign

China TMT Updfate(Apr.13)- Nio/700hk/Baba:Alibaba Unveils Plans for LLM AI and Cloud Price Cuts (+)

NIO: Wait times for NIO ET5 shortened to 2 weeks (-)
700HK: Tencent games now able to buy traffic on Bytedance (+)
BABA: Alibaba unveils implementation plans for its LLM AI and price cuts for Cloud (+)

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Apr 12

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET – Toyota Gets Serious and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET – Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain
Japan’s Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption
No Signs of a Chip Recovery
Asia Gaming: Macau Recovery Gaining Momentum at a Level Surprisin Analysts and Industry Execs:
Samsung Q1 2023 Profit Collapse Triggers Memory Production Cut Promise In Regulatory Filing
China TMT Update(Apr.12)-BIDU/BABA/SE/PDD/SHEIN – More Companies Announce Large Language Models

Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET – Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain

OVERSEAS. SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed’s CPI as momentum builds for rate hike; Broad strength in cyclicals – underlying economic strength?
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition
NUGGET. Toyota gets serious in BEVs – we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic

Japan’s Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

By Michael Causton

With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing.
This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.
The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.

No Signs of a Chip Recovery

By Jim Handy

Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.
Prices appear to have reached cost. They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.
The timing of the next shortage is still in question.

Asia Gaming: Macau Recovery Gaining Momentum at a Level Surprisin Analysts and Industry Execs:

By Howard J Klein

Just before Beijing lifted zero covid, proejctions for the 2023 year ranged from US$9B TO US$16B. Bothe have proven significantly below revised estimates now.
Since the end of zero covid, JP Morgan and USB have lifted their Macu GGR projects to US$22b. Our analysis effective with end of 1Q23 ranges higher to ~US$24–US$25b.
Adding non-gaming revenue at 14% to expected GGR is above the historic 10% pre-covid. Moving more non-gaming revenue is mandated by Macau’s extension of concessions.

Samsung Q1 2023 Profit Collapse Triggers Memory Production Cut Promise In Regulatory Filing

Samsung’s Q1 2023 operating profit has collapsed to 0.6 trillion Korean won (TKW), down from 4.31 TKW in Q2 2022 and 14.12 TWK in Q1 2022
A promise to “meaningfully lower” memory production sent competitor shares soaring, presumably in anticipation of a faster end to the current memory downturn.
The memory production cut report is elusive and vaguely attributed. We don’t anticipate a return to meaningful profitability in the memory segment until Q1 2024.

China TMT Update(Apr.12)-BIDU/BABA/SE/PDD/SHEIN – More Companies Announce Large Language Models

BIDU ：More companies announce / release large language model projects（-）
BABA / SE: Brazil cancels tax exemption for cross-border ecommerce (-)
PDD: Shein begins inviting 3P merchants to its platform (-)

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Apr 11

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China TMT Update(Apr.10): 700.HK/IQ/NIO/ZLAB/1801HK – Tencent Video and Douyin Reach Cooperation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

China TMT Update(Apr.10): 700.HK/IQ/NIO/ZLAB/1801HK – Tencent Video and Douyin Reach Cooperation
ByteDance’s Douyin and Tencent Reach Video Cooperation Deal as Tensions Thaw
China TMT Update(Apr.12/Pt2)-LKNCY/BGNE/9969HK/ZLAB – Abbview & J&J Voluntarily Withdrew
China TMT Update(Apr.11/Pt1) – PDD/JD/Li – PDD Launches Electronic Product Consumption Promotion
The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 7, 2023
TSMC March Revenue Falls 10.9% MoM
Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 7, 2023

China TMT Update(Apr.10): 700.HK/IQ/NIO/ZLAB/1801HK – Tencent Video and Douyin Reach Cooperation

700.HK/ IQ： Tencent Video and Douyin reach strategic cooperation （+/-）
NIO: NIO to allow consumers to lock in EC7 orders starting Apr 10 （+）
ZLAB/1801HK: ZaiLab started FGFR2 mAb Phase III trial for Gastric Cancer in China (+)

ByteDance’s Douyin and Tencent Reach Video Cooperation Deal as Tensions Thaw

By Caixin Global

Rivals ByteDance Ltd.’s Douyin and Tencent Holdings Ltd. have reached a deal to collaborate on video content, marking the latest move toward reconciliation between the two Chinese tech giants that have been locked in copyright disputes for years.
Under the agreement, Douyin — the Chinese version of TikTok — and Tencent Video will explore cooperating on areas including joint promotion of long and short videos as well as generation of secondary content, Douyin said in a statement on Friday.
The short-video platform said that Tencent Video will authorize the use of its copyrighted long videos to Douyin, and that rules over the creation of secondary content and publication have been clarified.

China TMT Update(Apr.12/Pt2)-LKNCY/BGNE/9969HK/ZLAB – Abbview & J&J Voluntarily Withdrew

LKNCY: Luckin Coffee launch new flavor Mint Coconut latte, and co-brand with Doraemon, but with no expectation to be the next blockbuster(+)
BGNE/9969HK:Abbview & J&J voluntarily withdrew two major indication of IMBRUVICA, a known positive to BeiGene but within our expectations (+)
ZLAB: GSK’s court battle loss to AZ likely will not affect Zai Lab’s royalty obligation on Zejula (/)

China TMT Update(Apr.11/Pt1) – PDD/JD/Li – PDD Launches Electronic Product Consumption Promotion

PDD / JD: PDD launches electronic product consumption promotion (-/-)
JD: JD to implement new AI model for customer service (+)
LI: Li Auto to unveil all-electric solution on Apr 18 (+)

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 7, 2023

By Water Tower Research

Stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week almost exactly flat, as the MSCI World Index and the S&P 500 ended at 0.01% and -0.05%, respectively.
Smalls caps followed suit, with the Russell 2000 down 0.01%.
As has been the trend lately, cannabis stocks declined. The US cannabis-focused MSOS ETF dropped 6.36%, led by Curaleaf (CSE: CURA, OTCQX: CURLF), which was down 15.35%.

TSMC March Revenue Falls 10.9% MoM

Q1 2023 revenue of ~US$16.7 billion was at the bottom end of the guided range
Despite the inauspicious start, Q1 revenue still represents sequential growth of 3.6% year on year.
TSMC’s earnings commentary on April 20 next will set the stage for how recovery looks across the broader semiconductor industry

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 7, 2023

By Water Tower Research

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 7, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 9.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.7%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 1.1%).
Advanced Transportation Solutions (70.0% of the index) contributed to the index underperformance, falling 10.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (22.3% of the index) was down 4.5% and Energy Technology was down 8.9%.
Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 26.6x versus 18.8x for the S&P 500.

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Apr 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Jobs Galore – Strong NFP; Watch for the Fed Hawks; NUGGET: Kuroda Exits..a Hero? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |Jobs Galore – Strong NFP; Watch for the Fed Hawks; NUGGET: Kuroda Exits..a Hero?
China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.7)- Pacemaker VBP, FDA Changes Game Rule, Industry Beta Vs Fundamentals

Good Morning Japan |Jobs Galore – Strong NFP; Watch for the Fed Hawks; NUGGET: Kuroda Exits..a Hero?

OVERSEAS. Good Friday holidays. US Economy proving to be pretty resilient. Non-farm payrolls showed hiring continued to be strong in March. NFP was 236k vs Cons 230k. Telsa cuts prices(again)
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash as US Equity(Cash) markets closed. USDJPY 132.2. Likely see some beta led reversals of losses seen in the latter half of last week.
NUGGET. Kuroda bids Farewell after 10 years as BOJ Governor. He created a new playbook on monetary policy that will be studied for years. Net-net, positive outcome.

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.7)- Pacemaker VBP, FDA Changes Game Rule, Industry Beta Vs Fundamentals

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Investors should note that even when there’re technical bottlenecks and domestic enterprises’ products are not yet mature, the government would still start centralized procurement, such as cardiac pacemaker.
The FDA has changed game rules and tighten the standards for accelerated approval. Together with the IRA, will the US really start limiting drug prices due to economic/financial pressure?
The relationship between fundamentals and stock prices is complicated. Beta would disappear without fundamentals, because fundamentals include not only objective facts, but also those generated by consensus brought by cognition.

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Apr 08

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM, 20.7% YoY In February 2023
China TMT Update (Apr. 7) JD/Baba/PDD/1024HK/3690HK: Kuaishou Resumes Exploration of Local Services
China TMT Update – BILI/BEKE/9995HK -Some BILI Content Creators Reportedly Cease to Upload Videos(-)
China TMT Update: JD/PDD/981HK/1347HK/650HK/ACMR – Small Merchants Rebel Against PDD Policies
GEM Weekly (7 Apr 2023): Asian PMI, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines CPI; SK Hynix, NCSoft, Kakao
US Banks – Off Balance Sheet Moving On?

Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM, 20.7% YoY In February 2023

February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two decades.
However, we are beginning to see green shoots of recovery from the likes of Foxconn, Asus and Nanya
We predict semi sales will trough in Q2 2023 and begin a gradual recovery through H2 2023

China TMT Update (Apr. 7) JD/Baba/PDD/1024HK/3690HK: Kuaishou Resumes Exploration of Local Services

JD: Douyin new merchant services aims to improve eCommerce quality (-)
BABA/PDD: Taobao begins to roll out “99 Bargain” portal (-)
1024HK / 3690HK: Kuaishou resumes exploration of local services (+/-)

China TMT Update – BILI/BEKE/9995HK -Some BILI Content Creators Reportedly Cease to Upload Videos(-)

BILI: Some BILI content creators reportedly cease to upload videos due to monetization(-)
BEKE: Housing transaction volume continue ramp up in March 2023(+)
9995HK: BioNTech signed ADC license deal with a Chinese startup (-)

China TMT Update: JD/PDD/981HK/1347HK/650HK/ACMR – Small Merchants Rebel Against PDD Policies

JD: JD plans listing of its MRO distributor subsidiary JD Industrials (+)
PDD: Reports indicate that small merchants rebel against PDD policies (-)
981HK/1347HK/650HK/ACMR: Japan announces restrictions on exports of semiconductor equipment (+)

GEM Weekly (7 Apr 2023): Asian PMI, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines CPI; SK Hynix, NCSoft, Kakao

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: Asian PMI data, South Korea exports and inflation, Thailand inflation, Philippines inflation, China Caixin PMI
Companies mentioned:SK Hynix (000660 KS), NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS)

US Banks – Off Balance Sheet Moving On?

By Daniel Tabbush

It appears as though off balance sheet lines are moving on balance sheet
We should not confuse loan growth from off balance sheet as positive
Credit costs can now rise from a myriad of factors, including off B/S

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Apr 07

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Fed’s Bullard Offers Comfort; NUGGET: Kansai Electric- Watch the Nuke Restarts ! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |Fed’s Bullard Offers Comfort; NUGGET: Kansai Electric- Watch the Nuke Restarts !
Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines

Good Morning Japan |Fed’s Bullard Offers Comfort; NUGGET: Kansai Electric- Watch the Nuke Restarts !

OVERSEAS. Bullard Calms Recession fears; SPX stabilizes; 2Yr Yields Rise: Non Farm Payrolls in Focus ahead of Good Friday Holidays
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7; ex-IMF Chief Economist Blanchard says BOJ to remain accomodative; JP Corporates doubles buying of own stocks in 2022; Point 72 JP expansion
NUGGET. KEPCO reconfirmed its plan to bring 2 addl Nuclear power plans online in a few months. The profit uptick will be considerable. We maintain KEPCO as a TOP PICK.

Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines

By Water Tower Research

This note addresses the Business Institutional Furniture Manufacturers Association’s (BIFMA) Monthly Market Pulse (MMP) of incoming orders and sales for February 2023.
About 50+ BIFMA member companies voluntarily submit monthly sales and orders to a national accounting firm that aggregates and reports composite data.
Neither BIFMA nor any individual member has access to the raw data.

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Apr 06

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Recession Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Panasonic+Stellantis =Expanded Battery Profits and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |Recession Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Panasonic+Stellantis =Expanded Battery Profits
The Great Game – Who’s Calling the Shots at Opec?
Mining Monthly: March Edition
RISC-V. Two Blue-Chip Names Betting Big On A Bright Future For The Upstart ISA

Good Morning Japan |Recession Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Panasonic+Stellantis =Expanded Battery Profits

OVERSEAS. SPX -0.2% as Equities continued with Recession trade overnight with Defensive >Cyclicals; Tech, Discretionary, Industrials stocks hit; ADP Employment+Services PMI add fuel to Recession narrative; Next up: Non-Farm Payrolls
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.4; As US recession narrative strenghtens, expect selling of US exposed Discretionary; China weighs export ban on Rare earths;Rakuen cuts Bank IPO price
NUGGET. Panasonic+Stellantis=Expansion of Battery Profits. IF Panasonic and Stellantis can agree, it could mean significant share price upside.

The Great Game – Who’s Calling the Shots at Opec?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

OPEC’s sudden oil production cut stunned the world on Sunday
Who drove the decision and what does this tell us about OPEC’s future?
What is the dynamic and role between Xi Jinping and Mohamed bin Salman?

Mining Monthly: March Edition

By Atrium Research

The precious metals and mining market significantly outperformed broader indices in the month of March with the GDX rising 15% versus the TSX being down slightly
Gold rallied heavily following the collapse of several major banks and the U.S. Fed guiding for a pause on rates in the near term
This month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly Gold rose 7.2% in the month to $1,969.7/oz, silver rose 14.5% to $24.0/oz, and copper sat flat, down just 1.8% to $4.10/lb.

RISC-V. Two Blue-Chip Names Betting Big On A Bright Future For The Upstart ISA