Thematic (Sector/Industry)

OVERSEAS. US Equities succumbs to Debt Ceiling Impass; 2 sides still far apart; BAML May survey indicate shift to Cash; US retail sales show consumer resilience
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.1% vs Cash as Japan gears up to host G7 this weekend; Japan’s Topix Index closes at the highest since 1990; Ahead of AGMs, bullish MTPs abound
NUGGET. Japanese Households Accelerating Shift Shift from Cash into Risky Assets

SPAC Talk : The Whopper SPAC Merger

We have a whopper! For more than a year, we have been noting how IBC deals have been getting smaller.
While there have been four $1 billion-plus deals announced so far in 2023, in terms of size, we have not seen anything like the $27 billion pre-money value for the proposed SPAC IBC merger that was announced at the end of last week by SPAC Black Spade Acquisition Co. (BSAQ) and privately held VinFast Auto, a Vietnamese manufacturer of EVs, since the peak of the SPAC euphoria in 2021.
In fact, this transaction happens to be the third-largest SPAC merger deal in history behind MSP Recovery (LIFW) in July 2021 (TEV $32.6 billion) and Grab (GRAB) in April 2021 (TEV $31.3 billion).

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 12, 2023

During the week ended May 12, 2023, there were four increases (one in Energy Technology, and three in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.
There were four decreases in 2022 revenue estimates for three companies in Energy Technology, and one company in Advanced Transportation Solutions.
One company in Advanced Transportation Solutions and three companies in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology saw increases in 2022 EPS estimates, while two companies each in Energy Technology and Advanced Transportation Solutions saw decreases in 2022 EPS estimates.

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May 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): OHAYO JAPAN |US Equities Rise as Complacency Reigns; NUGGET: US Debt Limit – What if ? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

OHAYO JAPAN |US Equities Rise as Complacency Reigns; NUGGET: US Debt Limit – What if ?
China TMT Update (May.16) – 1801HK/1810HK/3690HK: A Review of Meituan’s In-Store Business Strategy
Mattress Imports : March Imports Bounce 20% Vs. February
The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 12, 2023

OHAYO JAPAN |US Equities Rise as Complacency Reigns; NUGGET: US Debt Limit – What if ?

OVERSEAS. SPX up overnight Beta Factors dominated; Still no deal on the US debt limit but markets clearly expect a resolution.
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% vs Cash; Big earnings day yesterday which saw strong earnings from Megabanks; Bridgstone; and a big BUYBACK from Daiichi Life
NUGGET. The US Debt Limit – too much complacency ? Markets clearly pricing in 100% probability that this gets resolved..what if..

China TMT Update (May.16) – 1801HK/1810HK/3690HK: A Review of Meituan’s In-Store Business Strategy

1801HK: Innovent licensed in KRAS G12C drug obtained NMPA BTD designation but is a late comer（/）
1810 HK: Oppo abruptly abandons development of self-developed chips (-)
3690.HK: A review of Meituan’s Dazhong Dianping in-store business strategy

Mattress Imports : March Imports Bounce 20% Vs. February

We track imports for three specific 10-digit Harmonized Tariff System (HTS-10) that define adult mattresses.
The DoC normally posts detailed HTS import units and customs values on its website ~70 days after the month-end of the month being reported.
US mattress imports began attracting investor attention after low-cost imports disrupted the production and sales of domestic makers of mattresses, components, and fabric suppliers.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 12, 2023

Global equities fell last week, as investors digested the latest CPI data and debt ceiling news. The MSCI World Index dropped 0.51%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.25%.
The small-cap Russell 2000 slid 1.00%, while the NASDAQ bucked the trend and gained 0.40%.
After two strong weeks, cannabis stocks got crushed. The MSOS ETF ended -17.71% and blue-chip operator Trulieve was down 29.02% last week.

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May 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan |US Stocks Tread Water Amid Debt Limit Talks; NUGGET:Bullish BEV Outlook-JP OEM’s Absent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan |US Stocks Tread Water Amid Debt Limit Talks; NUGGET:Bullish BEV Outlook-JP OEM’s Absent
Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 5/15

Ohayo Japan |US Stocks Tread Water Amid Debt Limit Talks; NUGGET:Bullish BEV Outlook-JP OEM’s Absent

OVERSEAS. SPX declined by 0.2% on Friday and 0.3% for the week. VIX trading at 17%, near its one-year lows, despite the possibility of a US default. We are wary..
JAPAN. NKY futures are trading at a 0.6% premium vs Cash; Foreign investors continue to buy; Earnings season continues to see strong improvements to shareholder returns; Remain bullish JAPAN.
NUGGET. Comprehrensive IEA report EV Outlook 2023. EV Sales to reach 14 million,+35%YoY in 2023 – Japanese OEMs continue to lag

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 5/15

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

One of the lasting legacies of the COVID-19 pandemic was the acceleration of secular trends which were already in place prior to the start pandemic such as e-commerce, flexible working arrangements, streaming/entertainment at home, digital transformation, MRNA biotechnology, among others.
Many of these trends in place prior to the pandemic were turbocharged by a quick pivot and responses to adjust to the “new normal” disruption of the dealing with COVID-19 waves, lockdowns, and companies muddling through how to adapt their business model.
The aftermath of the combination of a bazooka fiscal and monetary stimulus has resulted in the Federal Reserve embarking on the most aggressive interest rate hiking campaign in decades in attempts to arrest and reverse inflation.

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May 13

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Nitori and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Nitori, Renova, SMM
Changan JVs Plan to Accelerate EV Transition as Conventional Cars Lose Position
Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines : Orders Remain Lower Y/Y, but at Moderating Pace
Shroom Shmooz – Overview of the Clinical Trial Landscape in Psychedelics

Japan Weekly | Nitori, Renova, SMM

The Japanese stock market remains in an uptrend with the Nikkei hitting a 17-month high
Global growth expectations remain weak. Key commodity prices lower on weakness in the Chinese economic outlook
Stocks in Japan moving mainly on earnings reports. Same again next week

Changan JVs Plan to Accelerate EV Transition as Conventional Cars Lose Position

By Caixin Global

Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. Ltd. plans to speed up the electrification of two of its joint ventures with foreign carmakers, as China’s homegrown electric-vehicle brands increasingly gain market share from fossil fuel-powered car companies.
The change in the industry was laid bare at last month’s Shanghai Auto Show, where the booths of Chinese brands were flooded with visitors.
A decade ago, cars built by China’s numerous international JVs would typically be center stage at such exhibitions.

Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines : Orders Remain Lower Y/Y, but at Moderating Pace

This note addresses the Monthly Market Pulse (MMP) of incoming orders and sales for March 2023 issued by the Business Institutional Furniture Manufacturers Association (BIFMA).
About 50+ BIFMA member companies voluntarily submit monthly sales and orders to a national accounting firm that aggregates and reports composite data.
Neither BIFMA nor any individual member has access to the raw data. We show the monthly data from 2019 to March 2023 under Industry Statistics.

Shroom Shmooz – Overview of the Clinical Trial Landscape in Psychedelics

The clinical trial landscape in psychedelics has evolved significantly over the past five years and has seen significant developments and milestones achieved in the last year.
There are currently more than 50 active clinical trials investigating the therapeutic value of psychedelic-based compounds as part of a treatment regimen, which includes the more traditional psychotherapy intervention.
About 60% of these clinical investigations have advanced to Phase II and Phase III stage trials.

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May 12

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China TMT Update (May.12) – Shein/PDD/700.HK/BABA/JD/ZLAB:Shein’s Newly-Launched Marketplace and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

China TMT Update (May.12) – Shein/PDD/700.HK/BABA/JD/ZLAB:Shein’s Newly-Launched Marketplace
Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended May 5, 2023

China TMT Update (May.12) – Shein/PDD/700.HK/BABA/JD/ZLAB:Shein’s Newly-Launched Marketplace

Shein/PDD: Our check and local media reports of Shein’s newly-launched marketplace, and implication to PDD (-)
PDD/700.HK/BABA/JD: China major Ecommerce platform’s low price strategy in 6/18 promotion (-/+/+/+)
ZLAB：ZLAB revenue met our expectation while loss greatly beat our expectation on reduced R&D

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended May 5, 2023

WTR-CMI for the week. It was another down week for the market, with both the Russell 2000 (down 0.5%) and the S&P 500 (down 0.8%) losing value.
Our WTR-CMI index underperformed, losing 1.8%, dragged down by NGVT, ASH, and EAF, as they delivered disappointing results and provided more cautious guidance.
April auto sales looking up. Germany’s new passenger vehicle sales increased 13% Y/Y, while French sales increased 22% Y/Y.

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May 11

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Short Note: China Prop – When Is a Good Time to Revisit the Sector? Still No Light at the Tunnel and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Short Note: China Prop – When Is a Good Time to Revisit the Sector? Still No Light at the Tunnel

Short Note: China Prop – When Is a Good Time to Revisit the Sector? Still No Light at the Tunnel

By Jacob Cheng

Property agents say more government support is needed. But historically timing and scale of policy is hard to predict
POEs are still under pressure with bond default. Latest case is KWG missing debt payment and potential cross default
Sector’s valuation is almost at all time low and big part of risk is priced in. But stocks can stay cheap forever. Monitor the HY bond market as key indicator.

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May 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning
China TMT Update(May 10) – 3690.HK/Douyin/1024.HK/LEGN: Douyin’s Latest Strategy in Food Delivery

Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.
The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It’s not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.
There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a “unprecedented upheaval in a century”.It’s time to change mindset so investors don’t miss the next valuation takeoff.

China TMT Update(May 10) – 3690.HK/Douyin/1024.HK/LEGN: Douyin’s Latest Strategy in Food Delivery

3690.HK/Douyin: Douyin’s latest strategy in China food delivery market, per Chinese local media reports (-)
1024: Kuaishou launches annual eCommerce conference for merchants ( + )
LEGN：Legend raised another US$350mn, which can support at least one year of operation (+)

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May 09

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Small US Banks – CRE Acceleration and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Small US Banks – CRE Acceleration
China TMT Update (May.9) – 1877.HK/Bidu/1801.HK – JUNSHI and Dr. Reddy Signed Agreement
The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 5, 2023

Small US Banks – CRE Acceleration

By Daniel Tabbush

Small US banks are showing sharply higher CRE loan growth in recent weeks
We would not view this as positive, and more likely off B/S moving on B/S
CMA shows clear 1Q23 deterioration in CRE loans, perhaps others too

China TMT Update (May.9) – 1877.HK/Bidu/1801.HK – JUNSHI and Dr. Reddy Signed Agreement

1877HK：JUNSHI and Dr. Reddy signed low ball license out agreement for India, Latin America, South Africa and Oceania (-)
BIDU : Baidu’s Xiaodu will enter smart phone industry (+)
1801HK： Innovent and Lilly will fight in obesity/diabetes drug. Positive for Innovent but not positive enough (+)

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 5, 2023