Thematic (Sector/Industry)

OVERSEAS. SPX -0.8% on Friday, -1.8%WoW as recession fears resurface post -ve EU PMI, amidst rate hikes to combat inflation; Carmax +10% on earnings beat, but used car px falling
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 reflecting disparity between Japan rates vs Global; Yet JP inflation remains elevated; JIC ¥1trn bid for JSR(4183); Oriental Land hikes px-es
NUGGET. Cosmo Energy(5021) – set back for Japan corporate governance. The Fourth Estate – Your turn.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 23 June 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

A weekly curated selection of around 10 local Chinese news articles or company announcements, focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

The State of Retailing in Japan

By Michael Causton

The latest Economic Census for the Japanese retail and wholesale industries was published recently, five years on from the previous survey.
The survey provides a wealth of data on the distribution industry, offering a snapshot macro view of the number of stores, businesses, employees, sales and sales space in Japan
The key trend is a decline in store numbers but, while e-commerce is expanding, it will not eclipse stores in Japan where a unique model of omnichannel retail is emerging.

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics – Ed #2

By Maverick Equity Research

1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns & the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook & Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!
The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023
To continues smoothly here, the S&P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows & below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises & travel cooled off in the last year

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 6/26

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

This past week, the S&P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak.
Last week also saw the Nasdaq post 4 consecutive days of net new lows, signaling caution.
A healthy and much needed pullback could offer opportunities ahead of the upcoming second quarter earnings season.

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Jun 25

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (23 Jun 2023): Chinese Interest Rates; MediaTek and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEM Weekly (23 Jun 2023): Chinese Interest Rates; MediaTek, JD.com, Alibaba, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto

GEM Weekly (23 Jun 2023): Chinese Interest Rates; MediaTek, JD.com, Alibaba, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: China, Indonesia, and Philippines interest rates, South Korea exports
Companies mentioned:Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), NIO Inc (9866 HK), XPeng (9868 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK)

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Jun 24

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Buffett Is Still Buying Marubeni and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Buffett Is Still Buying Marubeni
China TMT Update-Xpev/Li/Nio/1211hk/Tsla/NTES/700HK: Extends NEV Purchase Tax Exemption Until 2025
SPAC Talk – The State of the Market – Signs of Life

Japan Weekly | Buffett Is Still Buying Marubeni

Has Larry Fink just jinxed the Japanese equity market? Is a slight thawing of relations between the US and China a sign that the Japanese equity market has peaked?
Japanese stocks ended the week down 2.7% as foreigners turn net sellers for first time in 11 weeks
Marubeni Corp (8002 JP) stock price is up 71% year to date. The equity buyback story could continue for the foreseeable future.

China TMT Update-Xpev/Li/Nio/1211hk/Tsla/NTES/700HK: Extends NEV Purchase Tax Exemption Until 2025

By Shawn Yang

XPEV/LI/NIO/1211HK/TSLA: China extends NEV purchase tax exemption until end of 2025 (+)
NTES: NetEase’s racing game “Racing Master” officially launched（ – ）
700HK： Tencent Cloud launches its own Industry-Specific Large Language Models to Drive Intelligent Upgrades for Enterprises（+）

SPAC Talk – The State of the Market – Signs of Life

Excess supply of SPACs continues to dwindle. SPAC IPOs continue to be few and far between, with the sole pricing thus far in June being media & entertainment focused ESH Acquisition Corp.
(ESHA) priced on June 14, with the SPAC raising $115 million including take-up of the underwriter’s green shoe option.
This brings the total to 16 IPOs as we approach the end of the first half of 2023.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?
Ohayo Japan| Global Rate Hikes; SPX Rise Despite Powell; NUGGET: Daikin(6367)- Global Best in Class
FX Watch: The Scandinavian FX Massacre
Polestar Forms Venture With Xingji Meizu to Build Auto Operating System
Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended June 16, 2023
China Clears 89 More New Video Games in June
April Mattress Imports Slump After Bounce in March; Industry Remains in Doldrums

Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?

By Niklas Olausson

The NOAA has confirmed that the world is at the start of an El Niño, which means less rainfall in Southeast Asia and pressure on oil palm yields.
Early signs point to a severe event, which would cause a significant edible oil deficit in 2024. Ongoing drought in the U.S. is a budding wild card, affecting soybeans.
The report projects a 40% YoY higher average crude palm oil price in 2024. Given depressed consensus expectations and undemanding valuation, the risk-reward is bullish on a 6-12 month horizon.

Ohayo Japan| Global Rate Hikes; SPX Rise Despite Powell; NUGGET: Daikin(6367)- Global Best in Class

OVERSEAS. Hawish Powell wraps up testimony; Global Rate Hikes – from UK to Norway; SPX +0.4% gains despite rise in Yields; Confirmed- Titanic Sub Crew confirmed dead
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weaknes to 143 handle amid rise in US yields; Foreigners continue to buy Japan; Corp Governance loss as Cosmo(5021) approve Poison Pill
NUGGET. Daikin(6367)- A Global Best in Class and winner – but waiting for a pull back to jump in.

FX Watch: The Scandinavian FX Massacre

By Andreas Steno

Danish Consumers stronger than its neighbors due mortgage structures and lower inflation rates
Norges Bank selling too many NOK’s in the market compared to its income from dividends and oil & gas
Sweden’s high beta industry suffering under inflation and rates shock

Polestar Forms Venture With Xingji Meizu to Build Auto Operating System

Swedish electric vehicle maker Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC said Monday it is entering into a strategic agreement to set up a joint venture with Chinese smartphone and consumer electronics company Xingji Meizu Group to build an operating system for Polestar cars sold in China.
The joint venture will develop Xingji Meizu’s Flyme Auto system into a new operating system that can support in-car apps, streaming services and intelligent vehicle software, Polestar said in a statement.
Polestar will own 49% of the joint venture, with the remaining 51% controlled by Xingji Meizu. Both Polestar and Xingji Meizu are owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd.

Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended June 16, 2023

WTR-CMI last week. As the markets continue to recover from the 2022 doldrums, both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 posted weekly gains of 3.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
Our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks appreciated 1.4% over the last week.
YTD, our index is up 8.1%, above the Russell 2000’s 7.3% appreciation, but below the large-cap S&P 500’s 15.3% recovery.

China Clears 89 More New Video Games in June

Chinese regulators approved 89 new video games in June, the largest batch this year, bringing the number of new approvals in the first half to 521 and topping the total for all of last year.
NetEase, China’s second-largest gaming company, received a license for Where Winds Meet, an interactive open world action-adventure game, for mobile and personal computers.
Tencent Holdings Ltd., the world’s largest gaming company, was absent from the list after it received several approvals earlier this year.

April Mattress Imports Slump After Bounce in March; Industry Remains in Doldrums

This note addresses the April 2023 mattress import data posted on the Department of Commerce (DoC), US International Trade Commission DataWeb at https://dataweb.usitc.gov.
We track imports for three specific 10-digit Harmonized Tariff Systems (HTS-10) that define adult mattresses.
The DoC normally posts detailed HTS import units and customs values on its website ~70 days after the month-end of the month being reported.

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Jun 22

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Powell Drives Fear into Equities/Tech; NUGGET: Mit Motors(7211)-Fruitless Uphill Climb and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan| Powell Drives Fear into Equities/Tech; NUGGET: Mit Motors(7211)-Fruitless Uphill Climb
Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

Ohayo Japan| Powell Drives Fear into Equities/Tech; NUGGET: Mit Motors(7211)-Fruitless Uphill Climb

OVERSEAS. SPX -0.5% with Tech highflyers bearing the run of the decline; Fed Chair Powell thinking two more hikes this year; Tesla downgraded as rally not backed back fundamentals
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.1% Disc to Cash; Expect Japan tech to take the signal from the US; Kishida vow to deliver on wage growth; Panasonic and Mazda do battery deal
NUGGET. Mitsubishi Motors(7211) – Issues in China fully capture the stuggles for OEMs without a competitive BEV product/strategy.

Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

By Jim Handy

Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row. Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the “Collapse” phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise. Other chip makers will do better.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) – Set to Track Disney’s Success ? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) – Set to Track Disney’s Success ?
Intel, Micron Expanding In Different Directions
Japan Banks – TOPIX at July 1990 Levels, Banks’ Stock Holdings In Perspective
Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth
Shroom Shmooz : Why Getting a CPT Code Is a Big Deal for Psychedelic Therapies
The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May June 16, 2023
Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended June 16, 2023

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) – Set to Track Disney’s Success ?

OVERSEAS. SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock’s Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) – Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are “Legend of Zelda” Movie in the works..

Intel, Micron Expanding In Different Directions

By William Keating

While Intel was allegedly actively discouraged from further AT investment in Chengdu, Micron has just announced a significant investment in Xi’An.
Micron’s Xi’An investment announcement happened on the same day as Intel’s surprise Poland AT investment.
Following the Poland announcement, Intel now gets the enhanced Magdeburg deal they held out for.

Japan Banks – TOPIX at July 1990 Levels, Banks’ Stock Holdings In Perspective

By Daniel Tabbush

The Japan stock market is at ~33 year highs with TOPIX now at July 1990 levels
Japan’s banks can see greater gains on stocks as they divest sizable holdings
Vast differences how stocks holdings compare with profit, equity, assets

Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

By Shawn Yang

Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described
We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.
However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.

Shroom Shmooz : Why Getting a CPT Code Is a Big Deal for Psychedelic Therapies

With MDMA-Assisted Therapy (MDMA-AT) for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) highly anticipated to become the first Schedule 1 psychedelic-based therapy to be federally legalized in the US by 2Q24, once approved, affordability becomes the key condition for mainstreaming the use of the therapy.
Progress toward a more robust payor coverage for and broader-based accessibility to psychedelic-assisted therapies (PATs) has taken a major step forward with the recent approval by the American Medical Association (AMA) for the assignment of the first-of-its kind Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) code, an insurance billing code for long-form PAT.
PAT will be assigned a Category 3 CPT code, effective from the start of 2024, for which payor reimbursement is discretionary.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May June 16, 2023

A pause in interest rate hikes drove global equities higher.
Last week, the MSCI World Index gained 2.64%, while the S&P 500 increased 2.22%.
The S&P 500 earned its fifth consecutive positive week and is now 24.68% off its October 12, 2022, low.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended June 16, 2023

During the week ended June 16, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 5.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.2%).
Advanced Transportation Solutions (74.4% of the index) drove the index’s performance, rising 7.0%, while Energy Technology (6.8% of the index) was up 5.3% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 2.0%.
Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.2x versus 20.5x for the S&P 500.

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Jun 20

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift
Artificial Inconsistencies

Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

OVERSEAS. EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk; US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can’t Compete with China on EVs
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off; Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China
NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities…

Artificial Inconsistencies

By Jeroen Blokland

One reason the Global Fund Manager Survey is interesting is that it often contains contradictions concerning investor positioning.
Global Fund Managers are joining the AI boom, are heavily overweight tech stocks, but only 54% of them expect AI to boost company profits.
We believe global fund managers are long tech stocks because of strong momentum and the market extrapolation of artificial intelligence impacting earnings and sales growth, not because of superior fundamentals.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early
China Stimulus: Benefiting China Infrastructure Construction Sector
Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 6/19
ARK Invest Short & Squeeze – Edition #3

Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early

OVERSEAS. SPX -0.4% 1st down day 7 as Markets price in Peak rates/rate declines; SPX Looks risky here(More BELOW); China revamps NEV subsidies; Putin places tactical Nukes in Belarus..mmm
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday; NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives no-confidence motion; TEPCO goes full into Renewables; Lawsons makes a China push
NUGGET. SBI HD(8473) – Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early in what sets up to be a major opportunity

China Stimulus: Benefiting China Infrastructure Construction Sector

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Both the State Council and NDRC reiterated last week the importance of introducing economic stimulus measures. These measures should benefit the infrastructure construction companies.
1Q23 new contract growth, ranging between 6.3% and 15.8%, is healthy. With issuance of special purpose bonds up 16.5% in 4M23, new contract momentum looks to accelerate.
We view China Communications Construction (1800 HK) most positively, given its diversified sub-segment coverage, highest overseas exposure, and best forward pipeline.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 6/19

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

The ITB US Home Construction ETF is now up 33% YTD and represents one of the biggest market surprises for me so far in 2023.
This group has flashed relative strength vs. the S&P 500 since December 2022 and continues to one of the top performing groups.
After undergoing correction in 2022, the homebuilders sector has tons of weekly charts breaking out of long and healthy weekly bases in strong uptrends

ARK Invest Short & Squeeze – Edition #3

By Maverick Equity Research

All 6 ETFs positive in 2023 while ARKW ARKF ARKK ARKQ booming with 35%, 27%, 25% & 17% respectively.
Risk appetite for the Innovation/Hyper Growth thematic is on!
Enhanced Price Action view: Ark 6 ETFs 2023 Returns & Rebounders from their 52-week low + I added S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) for comparison

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Jun 18

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration
China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.16)- 9th National VBP Update, “Noise” of Consumption Upgrading, ChatGPT

US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration

By Daniel Tabbush

Weekly US bank data shows sharply decelerating loans at the largest 25 banks
Core to the economy are C&I loans which are showing the pace of growth down 72%
Small US banks appear to be seeing off-balance sheet CRE loans moving on balance sheet

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.16)- 9th National VBP Update, “Noise” of Consumption Upgrading, ChatGPT

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

According to the latest requirements of NHSA, the inclusion of biological drugs in VBP is an inevitable trend, and seven varieties could be included in the upcoming 9th national VBP.
When the “noise” of consumption upgrading fades, the so-called product pricing power doesn’t belong to enterprises, but would return to consumers themselves.This is what companies/investors need to be aware of.
We hope that investors can rationally see the applications and impacts of ChatGPT in the medical field. Its popularity and adoption may not be as fast as expected.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Japan Rally – Toyota and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Japan Rally – Toyota, ASICS, Nikon
Only Half of Chinese Insurers Made Money Abroad Last Year
Major Philippines’ Telco Banks On Rapid Digital Services Uptake, CEO Says
NeoCon/Design Days : Office Manufacturers Display Wares Amid Macro Uncertainty
Short Note: US Rate Pause, China Stimulus, and the HK Rebound

Japan Weekly | Japan Rally – Toyota, ASICS, Nikon

The stars are aligned for a rally in the Japanese equity markets – Earnings, Activism, and Capital Allocation.
We highlight some of the stocks that moved the market this week – Toyota excited the market with promises of Solid State battery production
Shareholders continue to test Japanese management with a barrage of proposals

Only Half of Chinese Insurers Made Money Abroad Last Year

Chinese insurance companies’ overseas investments remained flat in 2022, and only half of them made profits on the investments, a recent survey showed.
Foreign investments in 2022 by Chinese insurers totaled $83.2 billion, about the same as in 2021. The funds were invested mostly in Hong Kong and the U.S., according to the survey of 52 Chinese insurance companies.
The average return on investments was 1.32%, with a median of 0.22%. Returns were lower than insurers’ returns of 3.76% on total investments at home and abroad. About 54% of the insurers made money on the investments, down 19 percentage points from 2021, the survey showed.

Major Philippines’ Telco Banks On Rapid Digital Services Uptake, CEO Says

Philippine telecommunications conglomerate Globe Telecom Inc. is ramping up expansion of its e-wallet unit and online medical business by capitalizing on the widespread adoption of digital services in the Southeast Asian nation, the firm’s chief executive told Caixin.
The uptake of digital services for transactions surged during the Covid-19 pandemic — especially in the fintech, medical, and healthcare sectors.
The trend has continued even after the Philippines relaxed virus controls, Globe Telecom President and CEO Ernest Cu said in an interview on the sidelines of the Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore Monday

NeoCon/Design Days : Office Manufacturers Display Wares Amid Macro Uncertainty