Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Jul 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Zeon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Zeon, Disco, Topcon, CyberAgent, Omron
  • Resona & Chiba – Duration Longest at Resona, Shortest at Chiba, Implications for YCC Relief
  • India Gaming: Still Asia’s Sleeping Giant, Delta Corp Enjoys a Strong Moat
  • Volkswagen’s China Joint Venture to Develop Plug-In Hybrids for Local Market

Japan Weekly | Zeon, Disco, Topcon, CyberAgent, Omron

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Bank of Japan tweeked its yield curve control by raising the interest rate cap. JP bond yields had been moving higher in anticipation.
  • Japanese equities ended the week at 2,290 (+1.2% wow). Financial stocks were stronger
  • Earnings dominated the larger stock level moves this week. Contrarians may want to look at CyberAgent following earnings miss

Resona & Chiba – Duration Longest at Resona, Shortest at Chiba, Implications for YCC Relief

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There is no easy way to gather duration data of securities held by Japan’s regional banks
  • In IR material of the largest 8 regional banks, Resona and Chiba stand out, at opposite ends
  • On blunt equity/assets SBI Sumishin Net Bank stands out at only 1.5%

India Gaming: Still Asia’s Sleeping Giant, Delta Corp Enjoys a Strong Moat

By Howard J Klein

  • We began coverage of India gaming five years ago on SK when it appeared a judicial panel was about to approve mass legalization. But that has stalled.
  • Delta Corp’s position in the State of Goa is a moat by any definitions.
  • Most recent earnings release show gains in revenues and profits/

Volkswagen’s China Joint Venture to Develop Plug-In Hybrids for Local Market

By Caixin Global

  • The joint venture (JV) between state-owned SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. and Volkswagen AG will start developing its own plug-in hybrid models, a source familiar with the matter told Caixin, in a move insiders say shows that Chinese automaking is now leading innovation instead of simply emulating foreign manufacturers.
  • The effort by SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co. Ltd. is its latest to appeal more to Chinese consumers with an interest in new-energy vehicles (NEVs), which have increasingly become a key growth driver for the world’s largest auto market.
  • Beijing aims to make almost all new cars sold in 2035 in the country eco-friendly amid its push to reduce carbon emissions. 

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks
  • Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel
  • China Lithium Futures Bounce Back From Debut Bloodbath

Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks

By Smartkarma Research

  • In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Hemindra Hazari
  • He will be sharing with us more about Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks.
  • From current opportunities, to what we can expect next in the space, join us as we get the full picture from Hemindra. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 2 August 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Hemindra Hazari is a Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) registered research analyst with over 25 years experience in the Indian capital markets with a specialization in banking and economy research and has managerial experience of establishing profitable equities business, leading and mentoring analysts. He has worked with prominent foreign and domestic capital market firms such as UBS, Societe Generale, HSBC, ASK Raymond James and Karvy Stock Broking and is a regular guest on business media channels and is respected for his non-consensus view on stocks and the market.

Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SOX 1.9% bid as Generative AI drives bid for semis/tech hardware; Booming US Economy as GDP prints 2.4% driving yields higher; But USD weaker vs Yen on BOJ.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futures -1% vs Cash; USDJPY 139. 5; Really all about the BOJ as the Nikkei broke news  on potential YCC tweak; Earnings deluge: -ve Shin-etsu; Fujitsu.
  • NUGGET. Tokyo Steel has more advantages than meets the eye. No need for the massive capex in the crucial process that Nippon Steel or JFE needs to put out. Bullish.

China Lithium Futures Bounce Back From Debut Bloodbath

By Caixin Global

  • China’s lithium futures clawed back some lost ground Tuesday after two straight days of declines in a brutal debut for the contracts, with the most-traded contract holding above the key psychological threshold of 200,000 yuan per ton ($28,010).
  • The lithium carbonate contract for January delivery on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rebounded 6.9% from Monday to close at 225,900 yuan per ton, data from the bourse showed.
  • Futures for February to July delivery rose between 7.2% and 8.5% on Tuesday, closing between 191,350 yuan and 213,800 yuan per ton.

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Jul 27
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Fed Watch: Now for Hawkish Hold; Advantest Miss; NUGGET: JP Executives Not Incentivized and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Fed Watch: Now for Hawkish Hold; Advantest Miss; NUGGET: JP Executives Not Incentivized
  • Interpretation of China’s Politburo – The A-Share Bull Market Is Coming?
  • China A-Share Consumer Staples: The Most Challenging Time Is Behind
  • China TMT Update-ATAT/XPEV-The VW Brand Cooperate with Xpeng;G6 Capacity;Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR
  • SPAC TALK – SPACs and Publicly Traded Targets

Ohayo Japan| Fed Watch: Now for Hawkish Hold; Advantest Miss; NUGGET: JP Executives Not Incentivized

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Fed Lifts rates +25bps as expected; No longer sees recession emerging; Equities – Mixed as Industrials Rally, Tech Sells off; Meta Beats on Rev/EPS; Boeing Surges on Outloook
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Done, but for BOJ – Potential for a Surprise Move ? Advantest Miss-back to reality ?  Earnings in Full Swing.
  • NUGGET. Japanese Executives Not Properly Incentivized; Shareholders need to take a different tact in addressing corporate performance.

Interpretation of China’s Politburo – The A-Share Bull Market Is Coming?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • On China’s Politburo, we did see some rare expressions and highlights worthy of attention. Perhaps, avoiding short-term risks is so important that China needs to temporarily put aside long-term transformation.
  • Attitude change doesn’t mean returning to old model.Since “expanding domestic demand” is placed in a prominent position, we have reason to be optimistic about the prospects of private economy/A-share market.
  • The real A-share bull market may not come immediately, but we are optimistic about the performance of A-shares in 23Q4 and 2024. We recommend investors to get prepared in advance. 

China A-Share Consumer Staples: The Most Challenging Time Is Behind

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China TMT Update-ATAT/XPEV-The VW Brand Cooperate with Xpeng;G6 Capacity;Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR

By Shawn Yang

  • ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR increased 21% vs. same period in 2019（+）
  • XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-)
  • XPEV : The VW brand concludes technological framework agreement for long-term cooperation with Xpeng (+)

SPAC TALK – SPACs and Publicly Traded Targets

By Water Tower Research

  • Dog days of summer. Just as the unbearable heatwave afflicting the US and other parts of the globe may have a slowing effect on activity, there has been a slowdown in SPAC merger deal activity.

  • Having just entered the last week of July, while the SPAC IPO market continues to trundle along (four priced in July), there has been a noticeable tamp down in merger deal flow.

  • Only five new SPAC IBC deals have been announced so far this month, with the average value per deal at $364M. 

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority
  • ANZ/Suncorp – Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval
  • Credit Watch: The credit contraction has arrived… 5 charts from the ECB credit survey
  • [Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT
  • Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade
  • Australian Banks – High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims
  • China TMT Update-NIO/BEKE/LEGN-NIO to Offer Single-Motor Model;Political Bureau Shifted Tone

Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. US Stocks continue relentless run; Consumer Confidence hits 2 year high; New Resolve from China to help the economy; Alphabet reports strong earnings; MSFT AI biz growing
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; USDJPY 140.9; Earnings in full swing:  Otsuka HD beats; Shimano Misses;   Broker Changes: Nintendo cut to Sell at UBS
  • NUGGET. Globally competitive wages – An National Security Issue. More evidence emerges: Now out of Vietnam

ANZ/Suncorp – Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

By Daniel Tabbush

  • ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp
  • ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover
  • Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ’s rebuttal to the report 

Credit Watch: The credit contraction has arrived… 5 charts from the ECB credit survey

By Andreas Steno

  • Here is a list of our top charts from the Q3 ECB Credit Survey.
  • Just a few charts with a few words attached to them.
  • The credit contraction is already a reality in Europe, but there are also signs of green shoots in the survey.

[Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT

By Shawn Yang

  • We anticipate that the major swing factor of global e-commerce platform is the global expansion of Chinese e-commerce companies, including Shein, Temu, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop (or ‘STAT’).
  • The Japanese market is a good example. We upgraded Mercari to BUY because we believe that its second-hand eCommerce model addresses the issue of product supply.
  • We downgraded Z-Holdings to SELL as its B2C model lacks an advantage in product supply and has already lost market share.

Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade

By Superfluous Value

  • Value investing is often described as running towards the fire or seeking out disaster.
  • Often, outstanding returns can be had as the market reverts from total capitulation, to merely bad.
  • In the case of Brazil today, an investor is paying capitulation pricing for prospects that are already better than merely bad.

Australian Banks – High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically
  • Australia’s banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly
  • There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ

China TMT Update-NIO/BEKE/LEGN-NIO to Offer Single-Motor Model;Political Bureau Shifted Tone

By Shawn Yang

  • NIO: NIO to offer single-motor model in sub-brand codenamed Alps (+)
  • BEKE: Political Bureau of the Central Committee shifted tone on real estate regulation（+）
  • LEGN: Janssen reported CARVYKTI sales US$117mn, lower than our expectation (-)

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Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality!
  • China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba’s Annual Report/NHSA Rule
  • [Blue Lotus Heathcare Sector Update]: Domestic Substitution Takes Nascent Root in Med-Bots
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 21, 2023

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality!

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  S&P500 Up again, closing +0.4% ahead of Fed and a slew of earnings; Energy, Fincl lead on higher crude px,  Higher UST ylds; Hopes fade for big China stimulus
  • JAPAN. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may  lift inflation view; TSE ramps up pressure
  • NUGGET. Tokyo Steel (5423) – First Japan Beneficiary of the Shift to Low Carbon Steel.

China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba’s Annual Report/NHSA Rule

By Shawn Yang

  • Baba: Alibaba’s annual report, Chinese media discussions and our thoughts
  • BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB: NHSA issued new rule to protect drug pricing (-)
  • BEKE: China reinforce the city village reconstruction policy, which is different with Shantytown Renovation project（+)

[Blue Lotus Heathcare Sector Update]: Domestic Substitution Takes Nascent Root in Med-Bots

By Shawn Yang

  • We compiled the public sector bidding result of medical robots in the past one and half years. 
  • Result shows market leaders reinforcing their shares in laparoscopic and orthopaedic robots but in neurosurgery a new challenger has risen
  • We reiterate the view domestic substitution will likely occur in areas like puncture, natural orifice and microsurgery, which will require new core competencies in machine vision, haptic feedback and AR/VR.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 21, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Global equities again inched higher this week with the S&P 500 +0.65% and the MSCI World Index +0.60%.

  • The S&P 500 is now within 6% of an all-time high as investors become increasingly confident that inflation has cooled while corporate earnings remain strong.

  • The Russell 2000 climbed 1.53% last week but remains 18% below its 2021 peak. 

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Screen | A Treasure Trove of Value and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Screen | A Treasure Trove of Value
  • Ohayo Japan | This Week: Fed Hike in the Bag, All Eyes on BOJ; NUGGET: Top 5 Reasons We Like Sony
  • Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again
  • Philippine Move to Goverment Run Online Gaming Site Poses Potential Problems for Live Operators
  • China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/CPNG/SE/BEKE/1211HK/TSLA/XPEV/LI/NIO-Temu Launches in South Korea
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/24

Japan Screen | A Treasure Trove of Value

By Mark Chadwick

  • Even with a strong Japanese equity market this year, there is still a treasure trove of ultra-low PBR stocks
  • With the TSE pressuring companies to lift their ROE and valuations, and increasing activist engagement, value stocks should continue to perform
  • From a universe of non-financial companies, with a market cap above ¥250 billion, we highlight some deeply undervalued opportunities – with better performance metrics

Ohayo Japan | This Week: Fed Hike in the Bag, All Eyes on BOJ; NUGGET: Top 5 Reasons We Like Sony

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX managed to rise +0.7%WoW, despite the Tech weakness last week; Fed and ECB on tap as both to lift rates by +25bps;  Twitter/Musk exile the Blue Bird logo
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +1.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.7; The wild card this week is the BOJ- mounting speculation that there could be a tweak with Japan’s inflation above US.
  • NUGGET. Top 5 Reasons We Like Sony: Dream team Mgmt; PS5; Crunchyroll; Tax-free spin-off; Image Sensors

Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for Air China Ltd (753 HK). 
  • While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.
  • We prefer Air China Ltd (753 HK) given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK). Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too. 

Philippine Move to Goverment Run Online Gaming Site Poses Potential Problems for Live Operators

By Howard J Klein

  • Pagcor, the government run casino operator in the Philippines has announced its entry into online gaming–it could be a blow to brick and mortr casinos.
  • China is on record warning of Philippine illegal online sites “preying” on China citizens. Will  this alter that attitude.
  • Due to launch early next year we believe this move portends bearish implications for the key Entertainment Zone stock we currently rate as unervalued.

China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/CPNG/SE/BEKE/1211HK/TSLA/XPEV/LI/NIO-Temu Launches in South Korea

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD/ BABA/ CPNG/ SE: Temu launches in South Korea (+/-/-/-)
  • BEKE: Comments on the rumors of lowering existing mortgage interest rates and loosening home purchase restrictions of 1st tier cities(/)
  • 1211HK/TSLA/XPEV/LI/NIO: NDRC introduces measures to increase car consumption ( + )

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/24

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • So far in 2023, mega-cap growth names such as Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Netflix have continued to provide market leadership resulting in a 41% YTD gain in the QQQ ETF.
  • However, last week saw notable rotation away from technology (XLK) to the healthcare, energy, and financial sectors.
  • This came off the backs of notable technology heavyweights Tesla and Netflix earnings reports and investors selling off these names after their earnings prints this week.

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Jul 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now
  • Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent
  • Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now

By Caixin Global

  • Investment firm Temasek International Pte. Ltd. will keep a close eye on the long-term prospects of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in China, but will hold off on investing in mainland-listed stocks in the industry given their lack of fundamentals, the company’s China president said.
  • The state-owned Singaporean firm hasn’t made a single investment on the mainland in artificial-intelligence generated content (AIGC) stocks, a term commonly used for shares related to generative AI, Wu Yibing told Caixin in an interview on July 13.
  • Fueled by the success of ChatGPT, AIGC concept stocks have rallied this year, making them one of the few segments in China’s sluggish domestic market that have experienced significant growth.

Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent

By Mark Chadwick

  • The benchmark index Nikkei 225 closed the week at 32,304 – 87 points lower than the week before. Blame it on the global tech sell-off
  • Nidec reported Q1 earnings that trounced analyst expectations – mine included. The stock rose 13% over the week
  • BayCurrent reported Q1 earnings that missed Street expectations. As Japan earnings season moves into full gear, expect more single stock volatility

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

By Victor Galliano

  • In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
  • Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
  • We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples

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Jul 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan – IR Talent
  • Is China’s Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023
  • China TMT Update-BEKE/2150HK/3690HK-Meituan Recruiting 3P Delivery Partners in Lower Tier Markets

Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan – IR Talent

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Nasdaq and SOX Plunged overnight; Nasdaq on Tesla, Neflix; SOX on TSMC Sentiment;   Has something broken?  US Leading Index saying recession near; China deflationary pressures; Russia escalates war
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.5% disc vs Cash; USDJPY 140.1;  Eyes on BOJ  but indications are no tweak;  Nidec turns it around – strong 1Q; Raft of BUY calls from Street.
  • NUGGET. Japanese companies are hiring IR professionals as they face greater scrutiny from shareholders, the TSE, and regulators. Positive development that we see as an offshoot of the governance code.

Is China’s Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

By Jim Handy

  • China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
  • Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
  • Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

China TMT Update-BEKE/2150HK/3690HK-Meituan Recruiting 3P Delivery Partners in Lower Tier Markets

By Shawn Yang

  • KE Holdings: Beijing plans to standardize the registration and supervision process of real estate brokerage agents, and no mention of commission cap
  • 2150HK : Nayuki officially announced the opening of franchise business with high requirements, bodes well for margin improvement.（+）
  • 3690.HK: Meituan recruiting 3P delivery partners in lower tier markets (+)

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Jul 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must
  • Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning
  • China TMT Update-BZ/PDD/3690/NTES/700/Douyin-PDD Launches Local Life Services Portal
  • China’s VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook
  • Industry Report Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX eaks out gains as markets continue to bid inflation moderation/soft landing narrative; GS Reports the futures is better; TELSA earnings beat despite aggressive price cuts
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures flat vs Cash; USDJPY 139.7; Inbound Tourist back in full force; Daily Goods Manufacturers form logistics alliance to combat lack of drivers; Nidec, Disco reports today
  • NUGGET. JP Office Equipment Makers – could be investment opportunities if they are proactive consolidation. Falling demand and overcapacity demands aggressive industry restructuring.

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space
  • Pretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.
  • Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on July 24, 2023.

China TMT Update-BZ/PDD/3690/NTES/700/Douyin-PDD Launches Local Life Services Portal

By Shawn Yang

  • Boss Zhipin: Boss Zhipin MAU growth rate is higher than peers’, but still hard to monetize this year.
  • PDD/3690.HK: PDD launches local life services portal (+ / -)
  • NTES/700HK: The Rise of “Gaming with Influencers” on Douyin (+/-)

China’s VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. 
  • For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.
  • In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.

Industry Report Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended July 14, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 2.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.3%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (75.1% of the index) has contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 2.5%, while Energy Technology (6.7% of the index) was up 6.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 2.0%.

  • Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 24.8x versus 21.0x for the S&P 500.

  • Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended July 14, 2023, there were three increases (two in Advanced Transportation Solutions and one in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates. 

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) – EV Outlook Better for Trucks
  • China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/700HK/SE/XPEV-Online Retail Sales Growth；”Arena Breakout”；
  • Sands China Ltd: Possible Earnings Beat in the Crosshairs Based on Parent Gains

Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) – EV Outlook Better for Trucks

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX new 52W highs on Bank earnings, AI (thx to MSFT), and Resilient Retail print; MSFT prices Copilot at high end; US bank CEOs showing optimism.
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Look for continued follow through in Japan equity bid; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak view;   Kishida cabinet reshuffle?
  • NUGGET. Isuzu(7202) – Big EV Spending but Still looks Cheap at 1x PBR. A 15% FY3/26 ROE as per mid term plan makes this look interesting for LT investors here.

China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/700HK/SE/XPEV-Online Retail Sales Growth；”Arena Breakout”；

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK: Online retail sales growth steady in June NBS data (+)
  • 700HK/SE:Tencent’s FPS game “Arena Breakout” international version was launched on July 14th (+/-)
  • XPEV : Xpeng denies planning of PHEV pipelines  ( / )

Sands China Ltd: Possible Earnings Beat in the Crosshairs Based on Parent Gains

By Howard J Klein

  • SCL parent Las Vegas Sands reports earnings in two days. We sense a beat coming energized by Macau recovery cycle continuing.
  • SCL continues to hold a 20%+ share of the Macau market and is likely to gain both in the migration of premium mass and mass segment play to its properties.
  • SCL has invested US$1b in renovations and attractions in its Macau properties which will become accretive to EBITDA gains in the quarters ahead. 

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