Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 7/8/23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 7/8/23
  • Ohayo Japan| Equities Rebound; Yields Rise; NUGGET: Sustainable Aviation Fuel -ENEOS Joins the Party
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names
  • Earnings: Intel, AMD, ANET, ON, RMBS, SITM, QCOM, QRVO
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended August 4, 2023


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 7/8/23

By William Keating

  • Global semi sales for the month of June 2023 amounted to $41.5 billion, +1.7% MoM but still down ~17% YoY.
  • Nanya reported monthly revenue for July 2023 of NT$ 2,437 million, a slight decrease MoM and still down 44.5% YoY:
  • For the YTD through July, ASPEED’s revenue is down 47% YoY. This translates into a similar percentage decrease in global server sales YoY in 2023. 

Ohayo Japan| Equities Rebound; Yields Rise; NUGGET: Sustainable Aviation Fuel -ENEOS Joins the Party

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. All Major US Equity Indices rose: SPX +0.7%; Dow 1.2% after a last weeks sell off; US 10Yr yields rise on anticipated increased sales; Mgmt Transition worries at Tesla?
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY  142.5;  METI releases guidelines on developing AI HR; Toshiba tend to start (finally!); Broker upgrades to MHI(7011) (A bit late to the party)
  • NUGGET. ENEOS to collaborate with Total Energy (France) to produce SAF. SAF has huge potential and we think its worth paying attention to as Japan pushes its carbon-zero agenda.

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names

By Shawn Yang

  • We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro environment to be conducive; 
  • Our China Internet top picks are Meituan and Tencent, and investors could buy PDD and NetEase after 2Q23 earnings. 
  • Domestic consumption will also bottom out, but sustainability only confines to a few, our top picks in China consumer names are Miniso, Luckin Coffee, and Atour.

Earnings: Intel, AMD, ANET, ON, RMBS, SITM, QCOM, QRVO

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Let’s first talk about Intel. Intel reported earnings last week, and what a surprise; they managed to have a beat and raise!
  • I wrote about this in “Is this the Intel Inflection,” noting that, for once, they had low enough hurdles to jump over.
  • Most of this quarter’s strength came from Client computing, while Datacenter looked better than feared. There is a slight restocking event with the back-to-school season, which implies that the worst is done for PC CPU inventories.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended August 4, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (OPT) offers products and consulting services for ocean data collection and reporting, maritime power, offshore communications, and Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA).
  • Its PowerBuoy system generates clean electricity independent of the grid in offshore sites. OPT offers Wave Adaptive Modular Vessel (WAM-V) technology, which enables roaming capabilities for uncrewed maritime systems in waters.
  • The company also provides subsea battery systems, strategic consulting services, software, controls, sensors, and marine installation services.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| SPX -2.3%WoW; Buffett Buying UST; NUGGET:Motorcycle Electrification – Honda Roars Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| SPX -2.3%WoW; Buffett Buying UST; NUGGET:Motorcycle Electrification – Honda Roars Ahead
  • Big Gains for Big Retail in Japan
  • China TMT Update-XPEV/NVIDIA/BEKE/ATAT-Xpeng ADAS Head to Join Nvidia/Surge of Hotel ADR


Ohayo Japan| SPX -2.3%WoW; Buffett Buying UST; NUGGET:Motorcycle Electrification – Honda Roars Ahead

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX500 fell on Friday, and closed -2.3%WoW;  July jobs report showed cooling in the labor market;  Apple -4.8% weighed on market sentiment; Reports that Buffet buying short dated UST.
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8; Strong JP earning season so far- NP +20%YoY; Investors favor Japan>  China;  Oasis’s Fischer says still more to be done with Governance.
  • NUGGET. Honda is ahead of their motorcycle electrification strategy vs Japanese competitors.  With the #1 global share and 2.7 trillion yen in sales, they CANNOT afford to be left behind.

Big Gains for Big Retail in Japan

By Michael Causton

  • Retail results for FY2022-23 are now in and a summary analysis of all major retail sectors and retailers is available below. 
  • The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailing overall, with the highest growth rates since 1990, even if some of this growth was thanks to higher prices.
  • 2023 already looks like being another strong year across both consumer discretionary and staples.

China TMT Update-XPEV/NVIDIA/BEKE/ATAT-Xpeng ADAS Head to Join Nvidia/Surge of Hotel ADR

By Shawn Yang

  • XPEV/NVIDIA: Xpeng ADAS head to join Nvidia ( – /+)
  • Real Estate Industry Update: Zhengzhou announced 15 supportive policies on real estate industry, including suspending the home selling restrictions, and others. Minor positive: KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$22)
  • ATAT: Popularity of summer vacation continued in July, and the supply shortage resulted in the surge of hotel ADR(+)

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Stocks Down and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Down, Bonds up as BoJ Tightens; What Moved
  • GEMWeekly (4 Aug 2023): China, South Korea, Thailand Macro Data; Hyundai Motors, Kia Corp


Japan Weekly | Stocks Down, Bonds up as BoJ Tightens; What Moved

By Mark Chadwick

  • A cautious BoJ has begun to tighten monetary policy, allowing bond yields to rise to 1%
  • Even Toyota ( a famous laggard) is improving its Corporate Governance – selling off Y250b of its KDDI stock holdings
  • For every two stocks that went up last week, three fell. It is all earnings related at the moment

GEMWeekly (4 Aug 2023): China, South Korea, Thailand Macro Data; Hyundai Motors, Kia Corp

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: China PMI data, South Korea exports, and inflation, Thailand interest rates.
  • Companies mentioned:Hyundai Motor (005380 KS), Kia Corp (000270 KS)

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve
  • Shroom Shmooz – A Guide to Psychedelics


Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve

By Victor Galliano

  • BoJ’s tweaking of yield curve controls places Japanese financials on a more positive investment footing, and given the modest valuations, there is healthy potential for further re-rating
  • We assess the large-cap and select mid-cap Japanese commercial banks’ exposures to JGBs and foreign sovereign bonds and their loan books’ gearing to the prospect of higher rates
  • We see value, in particular, in Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with attractive valuations supported by modest LDRs, good loan sensitivity to higher rates and relatively modest exposure to JGBs

Shroom Shmooz – A Guide to Psychedelics

By Water Tower Research

  • An inflection point for psychedelics. With the legalization of 3,4-Methylenedioxy- methamphetamine (MDMA) to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) possibly less than 12 months away, acceptance of psychedelics as a viable option for more effective treatment of psychiatric disorders is a fast-approaching inflection point.
  • In fact, some might argue that we are already at this point, with S-ketamine-based Spravato, the first psychedelic-like treatment to be FDA approved to treat a mental disorder, seeing explosive growth in uptake in recent quarters.
  • Spravato has grown to be a near-$700 million market. As access and payor reimbursement for the treatment continue to expand, Spravato is on track to become a $1 billion-plus market in the not-too-distant future.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game – Japanese Investors on the Hunt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game – Japanese Investors on the Hunt


Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game – Japanese Investors on the Hunt

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Ongoing Focus on Rising Yields As Equities fall(again); US10Yr hits 4.19% as US Gov ramps up borrowing; China continues to shore up Economy; Resilient Apple, Amazon Earnings.
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield rise; Nikkei sheds 1200 points in 2 days in risk off – still+23%YTD.
  • NUGGET.  Another sign that Japanese investors are not standing still as domestic inflation takes hold – Record purchases of high-yielding (+high risk!) currencies in the first half of the year. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Travel notes: Manila and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Travel notes: Manila
  • Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) – Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap


Travel notes: Manila

By Michael Fritzell

  • I spent the past few days in Manila, the capital of the Philippines.
  • Since Southeast Asia’s borders opened up in 2022, it’s become easier to travel across the region.
  • Not only am I now able to better understand the companies in my coverage universe. I’m also able to pass on any insights to you.

Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) – Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming
  • JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private
  • NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities
  • Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish
  • [Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet
  • China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery


Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  US Equities take a breather as earnings intensify; WSJ saying Markets face threat from weak earnings; China ask banks to delay buying USD; Eurozone employment hits all-time low
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.3;  Earnings in full swing as a massive beat from Toyota – China doesn’t matter; MegaBanks MUFG, Mizuho Beat 
  • NUGGET.  Push and pull factors are joining to push the massive Japanese household savings into the equity market. Its all coming together – watch out above !

Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

By Niklas Olausson

  • The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia’s oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. 
  • For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) 
  • The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet

By Shawn Yang

  • We updated our revenue forecasts for ByteDance (China domestic) , with the industry models. We estimate that ByteDance’s domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year.
  • In the advertising space, we recommend Tencent and iQIYI. Both Tencent and iQIYI experienced a decline in their advertising revenue market share in 2022, followed by a rebound in 2023.
  • In transactional GMV/GTV, we prefer Meituan and Pinduoduo. Meituan’s market share experienced a significant decline in 2022, but the decline rate is expected to narrow significantly this year.

China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery

By Shawn Yang

  • Real Estate Industry Update: Housing bureaus in China’s first tier cities pledge to draft supportive policy on home purchase(+)
  • 2150HK: Nayuki teahouse average store revenue remains flattish YoY in July 2023(/)
  • LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng update August vehicle delivery results (+/+//)

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can’t Keep a Super Mario Down! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can’t Keep a Super Mario Down!
  • Auto Semiconductor Earnings, Testing, Semicap
  • Trends in Casual Dining, Quick Service and Online Food Delivery
  • US Banks – Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination
  • Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook
  • China TMT Update-XPEV/3690HK/241HK/6618HK-Volkswagen Cooperation;Crackdown on Healthcare Corruption
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 28, 2023


Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can’t Keep a Super Mario Down!

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing – generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?
  • NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company’s earnings and share price outlook

Auto Semiconductor Earnings, Testing, Semicap

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • A partial earnings recap of companies so far this week: grouped by categories
  • Simo and Maxlinear are going to be in a separate note.
  • It’s too funny and interesting not to, but that will hopefully come out soon. It’s been quite a week of content.

Trends in Casual Dining, Quick Service and Online Food Delivery

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Barbeque Nation Hospitality (BARBEQUE IN) has a strong operating model, well-regarded management, and a good dining experience, resonating well with non-vegetarian and corporate customers.
  • Current consumer trends show increased spending in the restaurant business, driven by social pressure to showcase lifestyles on platforms like Instagram.
  • ONDC has potential as a platform but faces challenges in scaling up due to infrastructure and delivery integration issues.

US Banks – Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

By Daniel Tabbush

  • High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week
  • This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week
  • Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks

Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.
  • The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.
  • However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. 

China TMT Update-XPEV/3690HK/241HK/6618HK-Volkswagen Cooperation;Crackdown on Healthcare Corruption

By Shawn Yang

  • XPEV: Xpeng and Volkswagen cooperation updates, per the analyst call with IR team (/)
  • 3690.HK: NDRC adds guidelines for restoring consumption of catering and tourism (+)
  • 241HK/ 6618HK:Central Discipline Committee launched crackdown on healthcare corruption (-)

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 28, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The Fed raised rates 0.25% at the July FOMC meeting on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate to 5.25% to 5.50%.

  • Stocks rallied, as investors sense the Fed may be nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle.

  • The S&P 500 gained 1.05%, while the MSCI World Index climbed 0.82%.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Investors Tolerate Amazon, Why Not China New Energy?
  • China TMT Update-BEKE/981.HK/1810.HK/AAPL-Ministry of Housing Loosen Home Purchase Restrictions
  • Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact


Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; 
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks – 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing
  • NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Investors Tolerate Amazon, Why Not China New Energy?

By Shawn Yang

  • The phenomenon of Chinese vendors taking terms to launch price wars, diminishing industry’s profitability is a headache. 
  • We conclude the reason is China’s technology lead is so slim that price wars against each other is the only way to stay in the game;
  • Although renewable energy has long and expansive value chains, transportation is a separate node. China’s success in EV has strategic value for a wide range of industries.

China TMT Update-BEKE/981.HK/1810.HK/AAPL-Ministry of Housing Loosen Home Purchase Restrictions

By Shawn Yang

  • Real Estate Industry Update: Beijing intends to give policy support to the purchase of green buildings(+)
  • Real Estate Industry Update: Ministry of Housing promised to lower housing down payment, and loosen home purchase restrictions(+)
  • 981.HK/1810.HK/AAPL: Huawei to launch new 5G-enabled smartphones ( + / -)

Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Many investors may not understand China’s NRDL negotiation system and the new adjustments in July. So, we think it’s necessary to clarify the rules/key points of NRDL negotiation procedures.
  • NHSA provides clear calculation rules for price reduction, greatly increasing the predictability of price changes during renewal process in NRDL negotiation. However, the benefits brought by new adjustments are limited.
  • The main direct beneficiaries are those “old drugs” since their price reduction can be controlled in renewal process. For enterprises, the biggest obstacle is the first NRDL negotiation with NHSA.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba, Samsung SDI, Tencent, TSMC, Ant, Meituan


GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba, Samsung SDI, Tencent, TSMC, Ant, Meituan

By Wium Malan, CFA


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