Thematic (Sector/Industry)

OVERSEAS. Fed Lifts rates +25bps as expected; No longer sees recession emerging; Equities – Mixed as Industrials Rally, Tech Sells off; Meta Beats on Rev/EPS; Boeing Surges on Outloook
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Done, but for BOJ – Potential for a Surprise Move ? Advantest Miss-back to reality ? Earnings in Full Swing.
NUGGET. Japanese Executives Not Properly Incentivized; Shareholders need to take a different tact in addressing corporate performance.

Interpretation of China’s Politburo – The A-Share Bull Market Is Coming?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

On China’s Politburo, we did see some rare expressions and highlights worthy of attention. Perhaps, avoiding short-term risks is so important that China needs to temporarily put aside long-term transformation.
Attitude change doesn’t mean returning to old model.Since “expanding domestic demand” is placed in a prominent position, we have reason to be optimistic about the prospects of private economy/A-share market.
The real A-share bull market may not come immediately, but we are optimistic about the performance of A-shares in 23Q4 and 2024. We recommend investors to get prepared in advance.

China A-Share Consumer Staples: The Most Challenging Time Is Behind

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Performance of China A-share consumer staples stayed lacklustre in the last three months, underperforming benchmark indexes. Negative consumer sentiments have weighted on them.
The pullback in valuations, however, has made them look more appealing now. Excluding Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH), there has been no earnings downgrades.
Both Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH) and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Group (603345 CH) have pre-announced 1H23 results which showed good 2Q23 earnings.

China TMT Update-ATAT/XPEV-The VW Brand Cooperate with Xpeng;G6 Capacity;Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR

ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR increased 21% vs. same period in 2019（+）
XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-)
XPEV : The VW brand concludes technological framework agreement for long-term cooperation with Xpeng (+)

SPAC TALK – SPACs and Publicly Traded Targets

Dog days of summer. Just as the unbearable heatwave afflicting the US and other parts of the globe may have a slowing effect on activity, there has been a slowdown in SPAC merger deal activity.
Having just entered the last week of July, while the SPAC IPO market continues to trundle along (four priced in July), there has been a noticeable tamp down in merger deal flow.
Only five new SPAC IBC deals have been announced so far this month, with the average value per deal at $364M.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 26

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority
ANZ/Suncorp – Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval
Credit Watch: The credit contraction has arrived… 5 charts from the ECB credit survey
[Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT
Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade
Australian Banks – High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims
China TMT Update-NIO/BEKE/LEGN-NIO to Offer Single-Motor Model;Political Bureau Shifted Tone

Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority

OVERSEAS. US Stocks continue relentless run; Consumer Confidence hits 2 year high; New Resolve from China to help the economy; Alphabet reports strong earnings; MSFT AI biz growing
JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; USDJPY 140.9; Earnings in full swing: Otsuka HD beats; Shimano Misses; Broker Changes: Nintendo cut to Sell at UBS
NUGGET. Globally competitive wages – An National Security Issue. More evidence emerges: Now out of Vietnam

ANZ/Suncorp – Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

By Daniel Tabbush

ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp
ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover
Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ’s rebuttal to the report

Credit Watch: The credit contraction has arrived… 5 charts from the ECB credit survey

By Andreas Steno

Here is a list of our top charts from the Q3 ECB Credit Survey.
Just a few charts with a few words attached to them.
The credit contraction is already a reality in Europe, but there are also signs of green shoots in the survey.

[Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT

We anticipate that the major swing factor of global e-commerce platform is the global expansion of Chinese e-commerce companies, including Shein, Temu, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop (or ‘STAT’).
The Japanese market is a good example. We upgraded Mercari to BUY because we believe that its second-hand eCommerce model addresses the issue of product supply.
We downgraded Z-Holdings to SELL as its B2C model lacks an advantage in product supply and has already lost market share.

Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade

By Superfluous Value

Value investing is often described as running towards the fire or seeking out disaster.
Often, outstanding returns can be had as the market reverts from total capitulation, to merely bad.
In the case of Brazil today, an investor is paying capitulation pricing for prospects that are already better than merely bad.

Australian Banks – High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

By Daniel Tabbush

Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically
Australia’s banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly
There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ

China TMT Update-NIO/BEKE/LEGN-NIO to Offer Single-Motor Model;Political Bureau Shifted Tone

NIO: NIO to offer single-motor model in sub-brand codenamed Alps (+)
BEKE: Political Bureau of the Central Committee shifted tone on real estate regulation（+）
LEGN: Janssen reported CARVYKTI sales US$117mn, lower than our expectation (-)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality!
China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba’s Annual Report/NHSA Rule
[Blue Lotus Heathcare Sector Update]: Domestic Substitution Takes Nascent Root in Med-Bots
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 21, 2023

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again…On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) – Green Demand Steel a Reality!

OVERSEAS. S&P500 Up again, closing +0.4% ahead of Fed and a slew of earnings; Energy, Fincl lead on higher crude px, Higher UST ylds; Hopes fade for big China stimulus
JAPAN. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may lift inflation view; TSE ramps up pressure
NUGGET. Tokyo Steel (5423) – First Japan Beneficiary of the Shift to Low Carbon Steel.

China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba’s Annual Report/NHSA Rule

Baba: Alibaba’s annual report, Chinese media discussions and our thoughts
BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB: NHSA issued new rule to protect drug pricing (-)
BEKE: China reinforce the city village reconstruction policy, which is different with Shantytown Renovation project（+)

[Blue Lotus Heathcare Sector Update]: Domestic Substitution Takes Nascent Root in Med-Bots

We compiled the public sector bidding result of medical robots in the past one and half years.
Result shows market leaders reinforcing their shares in laparoscopic and orthopaedic robots but in neurosurgery a new challenger has risen
We reiterate the view domestic substitution will likely occur in areas like puncture, natural orifice and microsurgery, which will require new core competencies in machine vision, haptic feedback and AR/VR.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 21, 2023

Global equities again inched higher this week with the S&P 500 +0.65% and the MSCI World Index +0.60%.
The S&P 500 is now within 6% of an all-time high as investors become increasingly confident that inflation has cooled while corporate earnings remain strong.
The Russell 2000 climbed 1.53% last week but remains 18% below its 2021 peak.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 24

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Screen | A Treasure Trove of Value and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Screen | A Treasure Trove of Value
Ohayo Japan | This Week: Fed Hike in the Bag, All Eyes on BOJ; NUGGET: Top 5 Reasons We Like Sony
Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again
Philippine Move to Goverment Run Online Gaming Site Poses Potential Problems for Live Operators
China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/CPNG/SE/BEKE/1211HK/TSLA/XPEV/LI/NIO-Temu Launches in South Korea
Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/24

Japan Screen | A Treasure Trove of Value

Even with a strong Japanese equity market this year, there is still a treasure trove of ultra-low PBR stocks
With the TSE pressuring companies to lift their ROE and valuations, and increasing activist engagement, value stocks should continue to perform
From a universe of non-financial companies, with a market cap above ¥250 billion, we highlight some deeply undervalued opportunities – with better performance metrics

Ohayo Japan | This Week: Fed Hike in the Bag, All Eyes on BOJ; NUGGET: Top 5 Reasons We Like Sony

OVERSEAS. SPX managed to rise +0.7%WoW, despite the Tech weakness last week; Fed and ECB on tap as both to lift rates by +25bps; Twitter/Musk exile the Blue Bird logo
JAPAN. NKY Futures +1.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.7; The wild card this week is the BOJ- mounting speculation that there could be a tweak with Japan’s inflation above US.
NUGGET. Top 5 Reasons We Like Sony: Dream team Mgmt; PS5; Crunchyroll; Tax-free spin-off; Image Sensors

Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for Air China Ltd (753 HK).
While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.
We prefer Air China Ltd (753 HK) given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK). Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too.

Philippine Move to Goverment Run Online Gaming Site Poses Potential Problems for Live Operators

By Howard J Klein

Pagcor, the government run casino operator in the Philippines has announced its entry into online gaming–it could be a blow to brick and mortr casinos.
China is on record warning of Philippine illegal online sites “preying” on China citizens. Will this alter that attitude.
Due to launch early next year we believe this move portends bearish implications for the key Entertainment Zone stock we currently rate as unervalued.

China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/CPNG/SE/BEKE/1211HK/TSLA/XPEV/LI/NIO-Temu Launches in South Korea

PDD/ BABA/ CPNG/ SE: Temu launches in South Korea (+/-/-/-)
BEKE: Comments on the rumors of lowering existing mortgage interest rates and loosening home purchase restrictions of 1st tier cities(/)
1211HK/TSLA/XPEV/LI/NIO: NDRC introduces measures to increase car consumption ( + )

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/24

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

So far in 2023, mega-cap growth names such as Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Netflix have continued to provide market leadership resulting in a 41% YTD gain in the QQQ ETF.
However, last week saw notable rotation away from technology (XLK) to the healthcare, energy, and financial sectors.
This came off the backs of notable technology heavyweights Tesla and Netflix earnings reports and investors selling off these names after their earnings prints this week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 22

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now
Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent
Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now

By Caixin Global

Investment firm Temasek International Pte. Ltd. will keep a close eye on the long-term prospects of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in China, but will hold off on investing in mainland-listed stocks in the industry given their lack of fundamentals, the company’s China president said.
The state-owned Singaporean firm hasn’t made a single investment on the mainland in artificial-intelligence generated content (AIGC) stocks, a term commonly used for shares related to generative AI, Wu Yibing told Caixin in an interview on July 13.
Fueled by the success of ChatGPT, AIGC concept stocks have rallied this year, making them one of the few segments in China’s sluggish domestic market that have experienced significant growth.

Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent

The benchmark index Nikkei 225 closed the week at 32,304 – 87 points lower than the week before. Blame it on the global tech sell-off
Nidec reported Q1 earnings that trounced analyst expectations – mine included. The stock rose 13% over the week
BayCurrent reported Q1 earnings that missed Street expectations. As Japan earnings season moves into full gear, expect more single stock volatility

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

By Victor Galliano

In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 21

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan – IR Talent
Is China’s Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023
China TMT Update-BEKE/2150HK/3690HK-Meituan Recruiting 3P Delivery Partners in Lower Tier Markets

Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan – IR Talent

OVERSEAS. Nasdaq and SOX Plunged overnight; Nasdaq on Tesla, Neflix; SOX on TSMC Sentiment; Has something broken? US Leading Index saying recession near; China deflationary pressures; Russia escalates war
JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.5% disc vs Cash; USDJPY 140.1; Eyes on BOJ but indications are no tweak; Nidec turns it around – strong 1Q; Raft of BUY calls from Street.
NUGGET. Japanese companies are hiring IR professionals as they face greater scrutiny from shareholders, the TSE, and regulators. Positive development that we see as an offshoot of the governance code.

Is China’s Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

By Jim Handy

China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

China TMT Update-BEKE/2150HK/3690HK-Meituan Recruiting 3P Delivery Partners in Lower Tier Markets

KE Holdings: Beijing plans to standardize the registration and supervision process of real estate brokerage agents, and no mention of commission cap
2150HK : Nayuki officially announced the opening of franchise business with high requirements, bodes well for margin improvement.（+）
3690.HK: Meituan recruiting 3P delivery partners in lower tier markets (+)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 20

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must
Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning
China TMT Update-BZ/PDD/3690/NTES/700/Douyin-PDD Launches Local Life Services Portal
China’s VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook
Industry Report Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must

OVERSEAS. SPX eaks out gains as markets continue to bid inflation moderation/soft landing narrative; GS Reports the futures is better; TELSA earnings beat despite aggressive price cuts
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures flat vs Cash; USDJPY 139.7; Inbound Tourist back in full force; Daily Goods Manufacturers form logistics alliance to combat lack of drivers; Nidec, Disco reports today
NUGGET. JP Office Equipment Makers – could be investment opportunities if they are proactive consolidation. Falling demand and overcapacity demands aggressive industry restructuring.

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

By Douglas O’Laughlin

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space
Pretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on July 24, 2023.

China TMT Update-BZ/PDD/3690/NTES/700/Douyin-PDD Launches Local Life Services Portal

Boss Zhipin: Boss Zhipin MAU growth rate is higher than peers’, but still hard to monetize this year.
PDD/3690.HK: PDD launches local life services portal (+ / -)
NTES/700HK: The Rise of “Gaming with Influencers” on Douyin (+/-)

China’s VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it.
For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.
In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.

Industry Report Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended July 14, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 2.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.3%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (75.1% of the index) has contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 2.5%, while Energy Technology (6.7% of the index) was up 6.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 2.0%.
Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 24.8x versus 21.0x for the S&P 500.
Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended July 14, 2023, there were three increases (two in Advanced Transportation Solutions and one in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) – EV Outlook Better for Trucks
China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/700HK/SE/XPEV-Online Retail Sales Growth；”Arena Breakout”；
Sands China Ltd: Possible Earnings Beat in the Crosshairs Based on Parent Gains

Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) – EV Outlook Better for Trucks

OVERSEAS. SPX new 52W highs on Bank earnings, AI (thx to MSFT), and Resilient Retail print; MSFT prices Copilot at high end; US bank CEOs showing optimism.
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Look for continued follow through in Japan equity bid; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak view; Kishida cabinet reshuffle?
NUGGET. Isuzu(7202) – Big EV Spending but Still looks Cheap at 1x PBR. A 15% FY3/26 ROE as per mid term plan makes this look interesting for LT investors here.

China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/700HK/SE/XPEV-Online Retail Sales Growth；”Arena Breakout”；

BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK: Online retail sales growth steady in June NBS data (+)
700HK/SE:Tencent’s FPS game “Arena Breakout” international version was launched on July 14th (+/-)
XPEV : Xpeng denies planning of PHEV pipelines ( / )

Sands China Ltd: Possible Earnings Beat in the Crosshairs Based on Parent Gains

By Howard J Klein

SCL parent Las Vegas Sands reports earnings in two days. We sense a beat coming energized by Macau recovery cycle continuing.
SCL continues to hold a 20%+ share of the Macau market and is likely to gain both in the migration of premium mass and mass segment play to its properties.
SCL has invested US$1b in renovations and attractions in its Macau properties which will become accretive to EBITDA gains in the quarters ahead.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 18

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner
[Blue Lotus EV Sector Update]: All Solid-State Battery Unlikely to Disrupt EV Market
China TMT Update-LI AUTO/Akeso/BEKE-Delay Chongqing Plant/Trial of Cadonilimab BsAb/New Home Sales
US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 14, 2023
WRKR Limited – Super Opportunities Ahead

Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner

OVERSEAS. SPX hit 52W highs as Yellen sees no US Recession; Rates fall on “inflation behind us” narrative; Global HF unwind bearish US positions; EV WARS as Ford Slashes prices.
JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.7%; Japan Back after Marine Day Holidays to lower US rates, stronger yen, Weaker China, and Tech bid; Blackrock lifts Japan stock outlook
NUGGET. JAL(9201) Double Winner(Margins+Emmissions) with Fleet Upgrade. Share price has run, but strong tailwinds on demand and operational efficiency. Watch for pullback to pick up.

[Blue Lotus EV Sector Update]: All Solid-State Battery Unlikely to Disrupt EV Market

In early July, Toyota announced a breakthrough in all-solid-state-battery (ASSB) delivering 745 miles per charge and <10-minute charging time.
Currently lithium-ion battery (LIB) can reach 500 miles and 25 minutes; We, however, believe the migration of LIB to ASSB will be a continuous process.
ASSB is expensive to manufacture. Further, mineral reliance on China is unlikely to lessen.

China TMT Update-LI AUTO/Akeso/BEKE-Delay Chongqing Plant/Trial of Cadonilimab BsAb/New Home Sales

LI: Li Auto said to postpone the construction of Chongqing plant (-)
Akeso started Phase III head-to-head trial of its Cadonilimab BsAb against BeiGene’s Tislelizumab mAb for first line treatment of NSCLC（/）
KE Holdings: New home sales remain weak in June, and existing home price trended down for two months, expecting more supportive policy on demand side of property market.

US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

By Daniel Hellberg

US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped
US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels
We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide “tailwinds” for much longer

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 14, 2023

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Global equities rallied this week on softer CPI and PPI reports.
One year ago, CPI was 9.1%, compared to last week’s 3.0%, showing the Fed’s action has slowed inflation.
This puts less pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates.

WRKR Limited – Super Opportunities Ahead

Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, clearing, messaging and employee validation.
WRK’s product solutions need to address and comply with a range of government regulations that continue to evolve, with examples being Single Touch Payroll 2.0, Your Future Your Super, Pay Day Super, Rollovers 3.0, and the Security of Critical Infrastructure.
Such regulations provide somewhat of a moat for competitors looking to enter the space and strong customer retention once secured.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23
Japan Screen | Nice Niche Names
Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market
Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/17
SPAC TALK – SPACs and Disappearing Projections

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23

By William Keating

Gartner reports Q2’23 PC unit shipments amounted to 59.7 million units, a decrease of 16.6% YoY, but an increase of ~8% QoQ
TSMC Q2’23 revenue will marginally exceed midpoint of the guided range.
Intel CEO second trip to China in 3 months heightens speculation about China’s approval of the pending Tower Semi acquisition.

Japan Screen | Nice Niche Names

METI identified 113 Japanese companies that were global niche winners – high market share, high margins, and high ratio of overseas sales
METI has done a pretty good job of selecting “quality companies” – the group enjoys higher margins and returns on capital than the average Japanese company
We screen for the “best of the best” and pick out MANI, one company that has underperformed this year

Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

By Douglas O’Laughlin

Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!
Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.
The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/17

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break down below prior weekly support levels in a large bearish engulfing candle last week.
This breakdown can serve as a tailwind for multi-nationals (especially technology names), commodities, emerging markets, treasuries, and cryptos.
The dollar is now sitting at a 15 month low. This decline may not be over as the MACD indicator is now crossing down.

SPAC TALK – SPACs and Disappearing Projections