Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Stocks Down and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Down, Bonds up as BoJ Tightens; What Moved
  • GEMWeekly (4 Aug 2023): China, South Korea, Thailand Macro Data; Hyundai Motors, Kia Corp

Japan Weekly | Stocks Down, Bonds up as BoJ Tightens; What Moved

By Mark Chadwick

  • A cautious BoJ has begun to tighten monetary policy, allowing bond yields to rise to 1%
  • Even Toyota ( a famous laggard) is improving its Corporate Governance – selling off Y250b of its KDDI stock holdings
  • For every two stocks that went up last week, three fell. It is all earnings related at the moment

GEMWeekly (4 Aug 2023): China, South Korea, Thailand Macro Data; Hyundai Motors, Kia Corp

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: China PMI data, South Korea exports, and inflation, Thailand interest rates.
  • Companies mentioned:Hyundai Motor (005380 KS), Kia Corp (000270 KS)

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Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve
  • Shroom Shmooz – A Guide to Psychedelics

Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve

By Victor Galliano

  • BoJ’s tweaking of yield curve controls places Japanese financials on a more positive investment footing, and given the modest valuations, there is healthy potential for further re-rating
  • We assess the large-cap and select mid-cap Japanese commercial banks’ exposures to JGBs and foreign sovereign bonds and their loan books’ gearing to the prospect of higher rates
  • We see value, in particular, in Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with attractive valuations supported by modest LDRs, good loan sensitivity to higher rates and relatively modest exposure to JGBs

Shroom Shmooz – A Guide to Psychedelics

By Water Tower Research

  • An inflection point for psychedelics. With the legalization of 3,4-Methylenedioxy- methamphetamine (MDMA) to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) possibly less than 12 months away, acceptance of psychedelics as a viable option for more effective treatment of psychiatric disorders is a fast-approaching inflection point.
  • In fact, some might argue that we are already at this point, with S-ketamine-based Spravato, the first psychedelic-like treatment to be FDA approved to treat a mental disorder, seeing explosive growth in uptake in recent quarters.
  • Spravato has grown to be a near-$700 million market. As access and payor reimbursement for the treatment continue to expand, Spravato is on track to become a $1 billion-plus market in the not-too-distant future.

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Aug 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game – Japanese Investors on the Hunt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game – Japanese Investors on the Hunt

Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game – Japanese Investors on the Hunt

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Ongoing Focus on Rising Yields As Equities fall(again); US10Yr hits 4.19% as US Gov ramps up borrowing; China continues to shore up Economy; Resilient Apple, Amazon Earnings.
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield rise; Nikkei sheds 1200 points in 2 days in risk off – still+23%YTD.
  • NUGGET.  Another sign that Japanese investors are not standing still as domestic inflation takes hold – Record purchases of high-yielding (+high risk!) currencies in the first half of the year. 

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Travel notes: Manila and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Travel notes: Manila
  • Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) – Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

Travel notes: Manila

By Michael Fritzell

  • I spent the past few days in Manila, the capital of the Philippines.
  • Since Southeast Asia’s borders opened up in 2022, it’s become easier to travel across the region.
  • Not only am I now able to better understand the companies in my coverage universe. I’m also able to pass on any insights to you.

Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) – Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming
  • JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private
  • NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities
  • Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish
  • [Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet
  • China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery

Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  US Equities take a breather as earnings intensify; WSJ saying Markets face threat from weak earnings; China ask banks to delay buying USD; Eurozone employment hits all-time low
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.3;  Earnings in full swing as a massive beat from Toyota – China doesn’t matter; MegaBanks MUFG, Mizuho Beat 
  • NUGGET.  Push and pull factors are joining to push the massive Japanese household savings into the equity market. Its all coming together – watch out above !

Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

By Niklas Olausson

  • The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia’s oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. 
  • For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) 
  • The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet

By Shawn Yang

  • We updated our revenue forecasts for ByteDance (China domestic) , with the industry models. We estimate that ByteDance’s domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year.
  • In the advertising space, we recommend Tencent and iQIYI. Both Tencent and iQIYI experienced a decline in their advertising revenue market share in 2022, followed by a rebound in 2023.
  • In transactional GMV/GTV, we prefer Meituan and Pinduoduo. Meituan’s market share experienced a significant decline in 2022, but the decline rate is expected to narrow significantly this year.

China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery

By Shawn Yang

  • Real Estate Industry Update: Housing bureaus in China’s first tier cities pledge to draft supportive policy on home purchase（+）
  • 2150HK: Nayuki teahouse average store revenue remains flattish YoY in July 2023（/）
  • LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng update August vehicle delivery results (+/+//)

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Aug 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can’t Keep a Super Mario Down! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can’t Keep a Super Mario Down!
  • Auto Semiconductor Earnings, Testing, Semicap
  • Trends in Casual Dining, Quick Service and Online Food Delivery
  • US Banks – Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination
  • Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook
  • China TMT Update-XPEV/3690HK/241HK/6618HK-Volkswagen Cooperation;Crackdown on Healthcare Corruption
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 28, 2023

Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can’t Keep a Super Mario Down!

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing – generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?
  • NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company’s earnings and share price outlook

Auto Semiconductor Earnings, Testing, Semicap

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • A partial earnings recap of companies so far this week: grouped by categories
  • Simo and Maxlinear are going to be in a separate note.
  • It’s too funny and interesting not to, but that will hopefully come out soon. It’s been quite a week of content.

Trends in Casual Dining, Quick Service and Online Food Delivery

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Barbeque Nation Hospitality (BARBEQUE IN) has a strong operating model, well-regarded management, and a good dining experience, resonating well with non-vegetarian and corporate customers.
  • Current consumer trends show increased spending in the restaurant business, driven by social pressure to showcase lifestyles on platforms like Instagram.
  • ONDC has potential as a platform but faces challenges in scaling up due to infrastructure and delivery integration issues.

US Banks – Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

By Daniel Tabbush

  • High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week
  • This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week
  • Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks

Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.
  • The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.
  • However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. 

China TMT Update-XPEV/3690HK/241HK/6618HK-Volkswagen Cooperation;Crackdown on Healthcare Corruption

By Shawn Yang

  • XPEV: Xpeng and Volkswagen cooperation updates, per the analyst call with IR team (/)
  • 3690.HK: NDRC adds guidelines for restoring consumption of catering and tourism (+)
  • 241HK/ 6618HK：Central Discipline Committee launched crackdown on healthcare corruption (-)

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 28, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The Fed raised rates 0.25% at the July FOMC meeting on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate to 5.25% to 5.50%.

  • Stocks rallied, as investors sense the Fed may be nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle.

  • The S&P 500 gained 1.05%, while the MSCI World Index climbed 0.82%.

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Jul 31
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Investors Tolerate Amazon, Why Not China New Energy?
  • China TMT Update-BEKE/981.HK/1810.HK/AAPL-Ministry of Housing Loosen Home Purchase Restrictions
  • Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; 
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks – 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing
  • NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Investors Tolerate Amazon, Why Not China New Energy?

By Shawn Yang

  • The phenomenon of Chinese vendors taking terms to launch price wars, diminishing industry’s profitability is a headache. 
  • We conclude the reason is China’s technology lead is so slim that price wars against each other is the only way to stay in the game;
  • Although renewable energy has long and expansive value chains, transportation is a separate node. China’s success in EV has strategic value for a wide range of industries.

China TMT Update-BEKE/981.HK/1810.HK/AAPL-Ministry of Housing Loosen Home Purchase Restrictions

By Shawn Yang

  • Real Estate Industry Update: Beijing intends to give policy support to the purchase of green buildings（+）
  • Real Estate Industry Update: Ministry of Housing promised to lower housing down payment, and loosen home purchase restrictions（+）
  • 981.HK/1810.HK/AAPL: Huawei to launch new 5G-enabled smartphones ( + / -)

Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Many investors may not understand China’s NRDL negotiation system and the new adjustments in July. So, we think it’s necessary to clarify the rules/key points of NRDL negotiation procedures.
  • NHSA provides clear calculation rules for price reduction, greatly increasing the predictability of price changes during renewal process in NRDL negotiation. However, the benefits brought by new adjustments are limited.
  • The main direct beneficiaries are those “old drugs” since their price reduction can be controlled in renewal process. For enterprises, the biggest obstacle is the first NRDL negotiation with NHSA.

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Jul 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba, Samsung SDI, Tencent, TSMC, Ant, Meituan

GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba, Samsung SDI, Tencent, TSMC, Ant, Meituan

By Wium Malan, CFA

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Jul 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Zeon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Zeon, Disco, Topcon, CyberAgent, Omron
  • Resona & Chiba – Duration Longest at Resona, Shortest at Chiba, Implications for YCC Relief
  • India Gaming: Still Asia’s Sleeping Giant, Delta Corp Enjoys a Strong Moat
  • Volkswagen’s China Joint Venture to Develop Plug-In Hybrids for Local Market

Japan Weekly | Zeon, Disco, Topcon, CyberAgent, Omron

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Bank of Japan tweeked its yield curve control by raising the interest rate cap. JP bond yields had been moving higher in anticipation.
  • Japanese equities ended the week at 2,290 (+1.2% wow). Financial stocks were stronger
  • Earnings dominated the larger stock level moves this week. Contrarians may want to look at CyberAgent following earnings miss

Resona & Chiba – Duration Longest at Resona, Shortest at Chiba, Implications for YCC Relief

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There is no easy way to gather duration data of securities held by Japan’s regional banks
  • In IR material of the largest 8 regional banks, Resona and Chiba stand out, at opposite ends
  • On blunt equity/assets SBI Sumishin Net Bank stands out at only 1.5%

India Gaming: Still Asia’s Sleeping Giant, Delta Corp Enjoys a Strong Moat

By Howard J Klein

  • We began coverage of India gaming five years ago on SK when it appeared a judicial panel was about to approve mass legalization. But that has stalled.
  • Delta Corp’s position in the State of Goa is a moat by any definitions.
  • Most recent earnings release show gains in revenues and profits/

Volkswagen’s China Joint Venture to Develop Plug-In Hybrids for Local Market

By Caixin Global

  • The joint venture (JV) between state-owned SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. and Volkswagen AG will start developing its own plug-in hybrid models, a source familiar with the matter told Caixin, in a move insiders say shows that Chinese automaking is now leading innovation instead of simply emulating foreign manufacturers.
  • The effort by SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co. Ltd. is its latest to appeal more to Chinese consumers with an interest in new-energy vehicles (NEVs), which have increasingly become a key growth driver for the world’s largest auto market.
  • Beijing aims to make almost all new cars sold in 2035 in the country eco-friendly amid its push to reduce carbon emissions. 

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks
  • Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel
  • China Lithium Futures Bounce Back From Debut Bloodbath

Smartkarma Webinar | Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks

By Smartkarma Research

  • In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Hemindra Hazari
  • He will be sharing with us more about Disclosures and Governance in Indian Banks.
  • From current opportunities, to what we can expect next in the space, join us as we get the full picture from Hemindra. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 2 August 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Hemindra Hazari is a Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) registered research analyst with over 25 years experience in the Indian capital markets with a specialization in banking and economy research and has managerial experience of establishing profitable equities business, leading and mentoring analysts. He has worked with prominent foreign and domestic capital market firms such as UBS, Societe Generale, HSBC, ASK Raymond James and Karvy Stock Broking and is a regular guest on business media channels and is respected for his non-consensus view on stocks and the market.

Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SOX 1.9% bid as Generative AI drives bid for semis/tech hardware; Booming US Economy as GDP prints 2.4% driving yields higher; But USD weaker vs Yen on BOJ.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futures -1% vs Cash; USDJPY 139. 5; Really all about the BOJ as the Nikkei broke news  on potential YCC tweak; Earnings deluge: -ve Shin-etsu; Fujitsu.
  • NUGGET. Tokyo Steel has more advantages than meets the eye. No need for the massive capex in the crucial process that Nippon Steel or JFE needs to put out. Bullish.

China Lithium Futures Bounce Back From Debut Bloodbath

By Caixin Global

  • China’s lithium futures clawed back some lost ground Tuesday after two straight days of declines in a brutal debut for the contracts, with the most-traded contract holding above the key psychological threshold of 200,000 yuan per ton ($28,010).
  • The lithium carbonate contract for January delivery on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rebounded 6.9% from Monday to close at 225,900 yuan per ton, data from the bourse showed.
  • Futures for February to July delivery rose between 7.2% and 8.5% on Tuesday, closing between 191,350 yuan and 213,800 yuan per ton.

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