Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1810.HK/AAPL/981.HK: Local media reports that the Mate 60 series is planned to ship 20mn units (-/-/+)
HK700/HK1024/DOYU/BILI/IQ: Tencent announced its live broadcast rights holder for 2023 Hangzhou Asian Games. (+)/(-)/(-)/(-)/(-)
BABA/VIPS / PDD/ 3690.HK/ YSG/JD: Social retail consumption improved month-on-month (+/+/+/+/+/-)

China TMT Update-AAPL/JD/BEKE-Pre-Registrations for IPhone 15 Slightly Lower than IPhone 14

Real Estate Industry Update: Property sales remain lukewarm in August, price declined marginally(/)
Real Estate Industry Update: Local media survey indicate China home purchase willingness increased in September post policy stimulus(+)
AAPL/JD: JD pre-registrations for iPhone 15 slightly lower than iPhone 14, and ASP largely unchanged (-)

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Sep 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (15 Sep 2023): China and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEMWeekly (15 Sep 2023): China, India Macro Data; Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Byju’s

GEMWeekly (15 Sep 2023): China, India Macro Data; Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Byju’s

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: China inflation, industrial production, retail sales, and RRR cut; India industrial and manufacturing output.
Companies mentioned:Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), BYJU’S (1391510D IN)

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Sep 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Yay and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Yay, Equity Breakout, Toyota Cross-Share Unwind, Problems for Japan Aerospace Inc
China RRR Cut, Macro, & A Debate on – Property Pair Trade “Long China and Short HK” (Or the Reverse)
Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 8, 2023

Japan Weekly | Yay, Equity Breakout, Toyota Cross-Share Unwind, Problems for Japan Aerospace Inc

A positive week for Japanese equities. The Nikkei ended the week up 2.8% at 33,533, a two-month high
Toyota Group subsidiaries took the honours after Aisin announced a bullish MTP and an unwinding of cross-shareholdings
Japan’s aerospace industry got caught up in the problems impacting Pratt & Whitney’s turbofan engines. All the heavies are impacted, none more so than IHI

China RRR Cut, Macro, & A Debate on – Property Pair Trade “Long China and Short HK” (Or the Reverse)

By Jacob Cheng

PBoC cut 25bps of RRR, being the second cut in 2023, and is expected to inject 500bn of liquidity into the system. The average RRR is 7.4% post cut
We look at the potential pair trade of China and HK for property. The original thesis was that China offers higher growth to investors
Now, the thesis no longer holds. The trade now becomes more complicated, given the moving pieces both from top down and bottom up. We recommend single stock trade.

Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 8, 2023

WTR-CMI last week. Last week saw the market retrench, with the S&P 500 losing 1.3%, while our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks managed to modestly outperform the broader Russell 2000 index (-3.6%) by declining 3.4%.
Only one stock in our index, SXT, managed a positive gain for the week, appreciating 3%. FMC was the worst performer in our index, losing 12.3% of its value on a short seller’s report that the company felt obliged to address.
Ag-tech portfolio shuffles continue. Privately held DLF, a global seed company, completed the acquisition of CTVA’s alfalfa seed breeding program, which was announced last month.

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Sep 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: SPX Rallies on Bullish ARM Debut; JAPAN X: Sparx Founder Retirement Trade – $2bn Fund and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan: SPX Rallies on Bullish ARM Debut; JAPAN X: Sparx Founder Retirement Trade – $2bn Fund
[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: Game Cannot Break the Tie of Hardware but AI Can
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 8-14 September 2023
China TMT Update-BEKE/NIO/300750CH/2150HK-Zhengzhou Cancel Restrictions;Nio Cylindrical Battery
Commodity Analysis – Cotton Futures

Ohayo Japan: SPX Rallies on Bullish ARM Debut; JAPAN X: Sparx Founder Retirement Trade – $2bn Fund

OVERSEAS: SPX Rallies supported by Bullish ARM (+25%) trading; Markets ignore implications Producer prices; Retail sales strong; UAW Strike Looms – GM Sweetens offer; China cuts RRR.
JAPAN: NKY Futs 0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Japan Corp profits not trickling down; No boost for Kishida post reshuffle; More JP firms lifting shareholder returns; Bullish Aisin MTP
JAPAN X: Sparx Group’s Billion-Dollar Bet on Japan’s Future. CEO Abe goes all in with a view of catching the start of the wave of resurgence of Japanese equities.

[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: Game Cannot Break the Tie of Hardware but AI Can

A key feature of iPhone 15 is 3nm Bionic chipset with enhanced game supports.
This, however, will not break the tie of Apple vs. Huawei;
We see game engine benefiting from upcoming competition between Apple, Qualcomm, MTK and Huawei, more so though AI.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 8-14 September 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

China TMT Update-BEKE/NIO/300750CH/2150HK-Zhengzhou Cancel Restrictions;Nio Cylindrical Battery

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Real Estate Industry Update: Zhengzhou fully cancel the home purchase and selling restrictions, an d lower the residential properties’ downpayment ratios（+）
NIO/ 300750CH: Nio Plans to Develop Cylindrical Battery with SVOLT (-)
2150HK: Nayuki co-brand woth Mint App’s new product, tea and coffee houses are becoming new marketing channels（+）

Commodity Analysis – Cotton Futures

According to Graph 1, during the period May 26, 2023 – August 25, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Cotton, despite some notable fluctuations.
During the period under consideration, there was a significant price correction from June 8th until the end of the same month.
In contrast, from 10th until 26th of July an upward trend was observed.

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Sep 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print…Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin’s AI to Revolutionize Production Planning and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print…Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin’s AI to Revolutionize Production Planning
SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month
China TMT Update-JD/AAPL/1810.HK/LI/NIO/Meituan/Ctrip/Atour-New IPhones in China;Thailand Visa-Free
China TMT Update-700.HK/3690/2352.CH/DADA/APPL/UBI/NTES-“SYNCED”/Douyin Expands Food Delivery

Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print…Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin’s AI to Revolutionize Production Planning

OVERSEAS: SPX +0.1% UST Yields 4.25%(down !) on hot August CPI Print; UAW plans strike strategy as no deal yet with US Big 3 autos; China vs Apple: Confused messaging.
JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Kishida focuses on wage hikes after cabinet reshuffle; Softbank wins on ARM – prices at $51; Fanuc to SELL at GS.
JAPAN X: Kirin (and Sapporo) Embrace AI for Demand Forecasting. We think that this trend in Japan will only increase – with positive implications for margins and profits.

SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month

By Jim Handy

Semiconductor revenues have enjoyed month over month growth since April
This growth is higher than the industry’s long-term average 3.9% growth
It looks as if the industry is starting another of its typical cycles.

China TMT Update-JD/AAPL/1810.HK/LI/NIO/Meituan/Ctrip/Atour-New IPhones in China;Thailand Visa-Free

JD/ AAPL/ 1810.HK: Apple launches new iPhones in China (-/-/+)
LI/NIO:Huawei AITO New M7 was launched today, limiting impact on LI auto(-)
Meituan/Ctrip.com/Atour: Thailand announced to implement a 5-months visa-free policy for Chinese tourists（+/+/-）

China TMT Update-700.HK/3690/2352.CH/DADA/APPL/UBI/NTES-“SYNCED”/Douyin Expands Food Delivery

(-) Tencent’s new game “SYNCED” has yielded mediocre results, leaving players disappointed.
3690.HK/002352.SH/DADA: Douyin expands food delivery service cities and introduces regional agents (-/+/+)
APPL/UBI.PA/CCOEY/HK700/NTES: The photorealistic rendering technology of the A17 Pro biochip could potentially usher smartphone gaming into the next generation. (+)

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Sep 13

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank’s ARM Done(Almost) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank’s ARM Done(Almost), PayPay IPO Next?
The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 42
The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 44
China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BYD/TSLA/Solar Power-All-New EC6/China Automotive Delivery Data
Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended September 8, 2023

Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank’s ARM Done(Almost), PayPay IPO Next?

OVERSEAS: SPX -0.6% as Tech leads Tuesday’s decline; Inflation concerns continue to weigh; UAW vs Detroit Big 3 discussion continue – strike deadline draws close; Fund managers avoid China.
JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day – changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX engine issue shocks Japanese partners; Street upgrade Galore !
JAPAN X: Reports are that SoftBank is Explores New York Listing for PayPay Amid Rising Tech Valuations. With ARM (effectively) done and dusted, Softie likely turns to a PayPay listing

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 42

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stock remains and 10 stocks are added
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 134% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 60%

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 44

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: One stocks remain, and 13 stocks are added
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 196% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 25%

China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BYD/TSLA/Solar Power-All-New EC6/China Automotive Delivery Data

NIO/LI: NIO to launch the all-new EC6 on Friday (+/-)
BYD/ TSLA /LI /XPEV/NIO: August China Automotive Delivery Data Update (+)
Gloated inventory in solar panel led to price collapse in Europe（/）

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended September 8, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 3.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.3%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.4%), but in line with the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.6%).
Energy Technology (14.9% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 3.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (6.5% of the index) was down 2.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 5.3%.
Top 10 Performers: ALLIF, NILI, GTEC, HYSR, FE, ETL, LNZA, LBNK, NGPHF, FNI

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Sep 12

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Banks – Near End of Negative Rates BOJ and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Banks – Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs
Ohayo Japan: SPX Rebounds – Tesla Leads; JAPAN X: Japan Equities: Is This Rally Different?
China TMT Update-Baba/Healthcare-Daniel Zhang Stepping Down/ Anti-Corruption Might Nearing Its End
Macro Nugget: US Banks
SPAC Talk – Why Traditional IPOs Remain the Default Choice for Private Companies to Go Public
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending September 8, 2023

Japan Banks – Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

By Daniel Tabbush

Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan’s banks
Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank’s income
Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore

Ohayo Japan: SPX Rebounds – Tesla Leads; JAPAN X: Japan Equities: Is This Rally Different?

OVERSEAS: SPX rebounded on Monday with 9/11 Sectors positive; Tesla up 10% on upgrade from Morgan Stanley; Tech strong ahead of Apple’s Event – expectations high; China stablilizing.
JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.6; JP yields rise; yen strengthens and Banks Rally as Ueda hints at normalization; This time is different: WSJ on Japan
JAPAN X: Japan Equities: Is This Rally Different? We generally worry when the FT, WSJ jump on the Japan bandwagon – generally the top. However, the hard data is supportive..

China TMT Update-Baba/Healthcare-Daniel Zhang Stepping Down/ Anti-Corruption Might Nearing Its End

Baba’s recent management change – Daniel Zhang proposed stepping down
NHC Director said healthcare anti-corruption must balance pros and cons, suggesting the campaign might nearing its end
Alibaba’s subsidiary, Lingxi Games, has released a self-developed new mobile game called “Forest Kingdom.” (森之国度)

Macro Nugget: US Banks

By Emil Moller

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.
The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.
We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.

SPAC Talk – Why Traditional IPOs Remain the Default Choice for Private Companies to Go Public

It’s feast… August ended with 19 deal announcements, the most active month of deal activity this year.
Total deal value amounted to $9.1 billion, at an average of $481 million per transaction, which is the highest level since the average of $586 million in January 2023, if we were to exclude the $27 billion BSAQ/VinFast transaction anomaly announced in May and de-SPACing in August.
September has begun spritely, with four new IBC transactions announced in the first eight days, all of which were valued at below $400 million.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending September 8, 2023

Global equities gave back most of last week’s gains, with the MSCI World Index ending the week -1.42% and the S&P 500 -1.26%.
The NASDAQ finished the four- day stretch -1.93%, while small caps were hit hardest, down 3.60%.
Losses were fueled by mid-week economic reports that signaled inflation could pick up again.

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Sep 11

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/9/23 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/9/23
Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries
China TMT Update-PDD/BILI/BEKE-Grizzly’s Short Report/Suspends Download For “Pretty Derby”
China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Pent-Up Demand Drives Robust Outlook
US Banks – New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD’s +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent
China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/9/23

By William Keating

TSMC, MediaTek, ASPEED and Nanya all announced August revenues with MoM growth, albeit YoY comps remind us that semiconductors are still very much in the depths of a downturn
Global semi sales for July continued their MoM increase for the fifth consecutive month. YTD semi sales are down 18.7% YoY
MediaTek and TSMC announced that the former has just produced its first chip on the latter’s 3nm process. Volume production of the Dimensity SOC will be in H2’24.

Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries

OVERSEAS: SPX closed Friday +0.1% and Week -1.1%; US economy turning out to be stronger than expected – fueling persistence in high rates; China Autos Sales recovery in August
JAPAN: NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle cabinet on Wed; Omron to make JMDC a subsidiary; Broker upgrades to BUY: JMDC, Nissan Chem, Toyo Tanso
JAPAN X: FY23 Sees Keyence’s Salaries Hit New Heights . Not accident but result of high productivity. Want to raise wages – funnel labor into high productivity firms !

China TMT Update-PDD/BILI/BEKE-Grizzly’s Short Report/Suspends Download For “Pretty Derby”

PDD – Our thoughts of Grizzly’s short report on PDD
BILI: Bilibili suspends download access for “Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby” across All Platforms (-)
Real Estate Industry Update: Four major banks in China will lower their mortgage interest rate for old loans.

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Pent-Up Demand Drives Robust Outlook

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The 2Q23 earnings performance for China’s tourism and hospitality stocks provides clear evidence for the sector’s operational recovery. This will become even stronger into 2H23.
Forward bookings for Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), H World Grp (1179 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) all point to encouraging underlying demand.
Despite recent strengths in share price, consensus earnings upgrades have made their valuations even cheaper than three months ago.

US Banks – New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD’s +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent

By Daniel Tabbush

Large US banks show -0.2% growth YoY in CRE loans at 30 August week, completely at odds with small US banks, showing 11.3% YoY growth, more than total loan growth
Large time deposit at large banks are now up 80.1% YoY, accelerating, with only 1.95% YoY loan growth, negative implications for net interest income delta
Small banks have 1.44% LLR/loans vs large banks at 1.85%; small banks have capital/loans at 15.2% vs 22.2% for large banks; despite small banks’ higher CRE lending

China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest

Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte will be a long-term selling product, but shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）
Sungrow invested TopCon startup posted 2nd highest in energy conversion efficiency（/）
Tencent officially published Hunyuan foundation model at Tencent GDES 2023

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Sep 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (8 Sep 2023): EM Asia Inflation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEMWeekly (8 Sep 2023): EM Asia Inflation, China Macro; Alibaba, Tencent, TSMC, MediaTek, SK Hynix

GEMWeekly (8 Sep 2023): EM Asia Inflation, China Macro; Alibaba, Tencent, TSMC, MediaTek, SK Hynix

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: China PMI, net exports; Inflation data across Emerging Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam).
Companies mentioned:Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), SK Hynix (000660 KS)

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Sep 09

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Tadano and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Tadano, JMDC, CyberAgent, JFE, Komatsu

Japan Weekly | Tadano, JMDC, CyberAgent, JFE, Komatsu