Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): NVIDIA Q425 Beats and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • NVIDIA Q425 Beats, Raises, Market Yawns, Then Vomits. A Lake Wobegon Moment Perhaps?
  • China Banks – If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive
  • #111 India Insight: Axis Bank, India Solar Push, PAG Sell: $1B+ Deals in Focus
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling
  • Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 28/02/2025

NVIDIA Q425 Beats, Raises, Market Yawns, Then Vomits. A Lake Wobegon Moment Perhaps?

By William Keating

  • Q425 revenues were a record $39.3 billion, up 78% YoY,  up 12% QoQ, handily beating the guided midpoint of $37.5 billion. It was NVIDIA’s eight consecutive quarter of sequential growth.
  • After taking an overnight break to consider its options, the markets then positively vomited on NVIDIA, sending its share price down 8.5% on Thursday
  • Jensen presents a utopian, Lake Wobegon-esque vision of all pervasive AI but in reality the pace of AI adoption will ultimately be determined by the pace of AI revenue generation

China Banks – If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China’s banks through a government capital injection
  • This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
  • Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs

#111 India Insight: Axis Bank, India Solar Push, PAG Sell: $1B+ Deals in Focus

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) is considering a majority stake sale in its shadow-banking unit, Axis Finance, valued at $900 million-$1 billion.
  • India plans a $1 billion subsidy to boost domestic solar wafer and ingot production, reducing reliance on China.
  • PAG, backed by Blackstone (BX US) , is exploring the sale of its 54% stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN) Management for $1.2 billion.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese markets experienced significant pressure this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.2% and the Topix declining 2%
  • The week was dominated by escalating global trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump announced multiple tariff initiatives.
  • Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, particularly chip and AI-related companies including Disco (-19%), Tokyo Electron (-12%), and Advantest (-15%).

Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid

By Michael Causton

  • That department stores in city centres did well in 2024 won’t be a surprise to anyone given the support from inbound tourists buying luxury goods on a cheap Yen.
  • But that the sector overall managed to exceed 2019 sales is an achievement given the ongoing contraction in the regions.
  • The gap is widening further between the best and the rest but the top firms look set to continue increasing profits as they work to add value to existing buildings.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 28/02/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d – Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well.
  • As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days.
  • Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seismic data, five additional well candidates with similar geologic characteristics have been identified.

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Feb 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia’s Sales Boom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia’s Sales Boom, but Stock Down on Pricing Power Concerns
  • Japan Morning Connection: Nvidia + Trump Tariff Worries Sparks Tech Swoon
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 26 February (ASM Int’l | Unilever | Wolters Kluwer | JDE Peet’s)

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia’s Sales Boom, but Stock Down on Pricing Power Concerns

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8%, and the Dow declined 0.4% as tech stocks sold off following Nvidia’s earnings report
  • Nvidia’s Q4 revenue jumps on strong demand for AI chips, but gross margin guidance disappoints due to pricing pressure.
  • Seven & i’s founding family has abandoned its buyout plan due to inability to secure financing, with shares falling 11.7% to 2,118 yen

Japan Morning Connection: Nvidia + Trump Tariff Worries Sparks Tech Swoon

By Andrew Jackson

  • NVDA started the day in the green but was sold aggressively off the open pulling everything lower.
  • Dell rebounded in later trading after strong numbers in a bright spot for sentiment.
  • Advantest taking a minority stake in Micronics a big positive and todays weakness may be the chance to buy.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 26 February (ASM Int’l | Unilever | Wolters Kluwer | JDE Peet’s)

By The IDEA!

  • ASM intends to declare a regular dividend of EUR 3.00 per share [FY23 EUR 2.75 per share].
  • Besides the company authorized a new repurchase program of up to EUR 150m within the 2025/26 timeframe.
  • ASM expects revenue in the range of EUR 810m to EUR 850m for 25Q1 [24Q1 EUR 639.0m], with a projected further increase in 25Q2 compared to 25Q1 [24Q2 EUR 706.1m]. 

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Feb 27
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Microsoft CEO On AI CapEx: Show Me The Money! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Microsoft CEO On AI CapEx: Show Me The Money!
  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Beats, Stock +3.7%
  • Singapore Banks – Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great
  • What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?
  • Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown
  • Themes of India: Fertilizer Industry Q3 FY25 Update~ Growth Catalysts and Strategic Outlook
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Chinese Shipbuilding Targeted; IKEA Update
  • Biopharma Week in Review – February 24, 2025
  • #110 India Insight: Tata Play-Airtel Merger, 5.1% IT Growth in FY25, HCLTech CEO on GenAI

Microsoft CEO On AI CapEx: Show Me The Money!

By William Keating

  • Microsoft dominated the technology news cycle recently on the back of a report by a TD Cowen analyst that the company is cancelling data centre leases in the US
  • Dwarkesh Patel’s podcast with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella last week provided a fascinating insight into his thinking when it comes to AI compute build out, AI winners & losers etc.
  • Mr Nadella’s approach to AI compute build out has always been a pragmatic “show me the money and I’ll build some more compute” approach. Now we better understand why.

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Beats, Stock +3.7%

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq gained 0.3% after rising as much as 1%, while the S&P 500 finished flat
  • Nvidia reported Q4 revenue of ¥39 billion, exceeding expectations of ¥38 billion
  • Itochu has declined to participate in Seven & i Holdings’ planned buyout by its founding family

Singapore Banks – Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
  • Singapore’s banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
  • We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China

What Do Detailed 2024 Semi Stats Tell Us?

By Jim Handy

  • Despite the chip market’s 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.
  • Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry’s historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.
  • The US’ trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown

By Andrew Jackson

  • Tech rebound into NVDA print, which came in slightly ahead of estimates. Server related up on SMCI gains.
  • Expect this to be enough to spark dip buying for Japan SPE plays such as TEL, Disco, as well as likes of Fujikura and MHI.
  • Hoya has bottomed in the last 2-days and looks primed for more upside after excessive weakness.

Themes of India: Fertilizer Industry Q3 FY25 Update~ Growth Catalysts and Strategic Outlook

By Nimish Maheshwari

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Chinese Shipbuilding Targeted; IKEA Update

By Water Tower Research

  • A down week for furniture and furnishings stocks amid a broader small-cap pullback against a background of increased policy uncertainty.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 4%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 2.3%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index fell 10.1%, while the broader market indexes declined 1.7% and the R2K fell 3.6%.
  • The administration’s plans to target Chinese shipbuilding could increase costs for importers.

Biopharma Week in Review – February 24, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Vaccine makers (PFE, MRNA, BNTX, NVAX) had an up-and- down week, as the HHS postponed the CDC’s first scheduled ACIP (vaccine experts panel) meeting of the year.
  • Deeper concerns came with reports of RFK Jr.’s plans to overhaul the committee (Politico), possibly replacing members with vaccine skeptics.
  • Ending the group’s week was a new bat coronavirus identified in China with transmission potential to humans. 

#110 India Insight: Tata Play-Airtel Merger, 5.1% IT Growth in FY25, HCLTech CEO on GenAI

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Tata Play and Airtel Digital TV are merging, with Airtel taking majority stake, to consolidate DTH, broadband, and telecom services.
  • Indian IT sector set for 5.1% growth in FY25, with $300 billion target by FY26, adding 126,000 jobs.
  • HCL Technologies (HCLT IN) CEO C Vijayakumar highlights that GenAI disrupts IT’s traditional model, pushing for productivity and specialized skills over headcount.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Fourth Straight Drop and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Fourth Straight Drop
  • Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rout Deepens, but JP May Be Largely Priced In
  • Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 4
  • Monday Delight: 24/02/25
  • #109 India Insight: Bain Capital To Buy Stake in Manappuram, India’s GCC Hits $1B, Bans Drug Exports

Ohayo Japan | Fourth Straight Drop

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mixed Tuesday as renewed tariff threats and potential China curbs pressured sentiment.
  • The Nasdaq fell 1.3%, dragged by Nvidia (-2.8%) and Tesla (-8.4%)
  • Toyota Motor will transition to a company with an Audit and Supervisory Committee, strengthening its corporate governance

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rout Deepens, but JP May Be Largely Priced In

By Andrew Jackson

  • Wild ride for Kokusai Electric yesterday on US/China announcement, although the squeeze should continue.
  • SMCI +25% in after market trading enough to finally get Nidec up?
  • Yields down, Homebuilders up, but Tesla hammered after Musk’s clumsy foray into EU/UK politics.

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 4

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Given the sharp decline in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.
  • Following our mid-month insider-buying report from last week, number of buying transactions has increased further. 
  • This is Part-4 of the series, providing an update on insider-buying activity from just last week.

Monday Delight: 24/02/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
  • Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
  • If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

#109 India Insight: Bain Capital To Buy Stake in Manappuram, India’s GCC Hits $1B, Bans Drug Exports

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Bain Capital Specialty Finan (BCSF US) finalizes $1 billion deal to acquire a controlling stake in Manappuram Finance, India’s second-largest gold loan provider.  
  • India’s GCC sector sees rapid growth, with 24 centres crossing $1 billion in export revenue, contributing $43.6 billion.  
  • India bans production and export of drugs containing Tapentadol and Carisoprodol, citing unapproved combinations and regulatory concerns.

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Feb 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Singapore and HK Banks – New World Impairments Are Significant and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore and HK Banks – New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real
  • Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Slips as Tech Drags, Trade War Fears Loom
  • Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 3
  • [Precious Insights 2025/08] Gold’s Momentum Holds: Driven by Investment & Central Banks
  • Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Tech Weakness to Price in Will Be a Rough Start for Japan
  • RBI’s Monetary Policy: Growth Amid Disinflation

Singapore and HK Banks – New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

By Daniel Tabbush

  • New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China
  • We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening
  • Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore’s banks

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Slips as Tech Drags, Trade War Fears Loom

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.2%, extending its decline into negative territory for 2025
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet approval rating dropped to 40%
  • Berkshire Hathaway plans to increase its holdings in Japan’s five largest trading houses.

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 3

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Following our mid-month insider-buying report from last week, number of buying transactions has increased further. This is Part-3 of the series,providing an update on insider-buying activity from just last week.
  • Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.
  • As there are many companies with insider-buying this week (50 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading.

[Precious Insights 2025/08] Gold’s Momentum Holds: Driven by Investment & Central Banks

By Amrutha Raj

  • Gold prices rose 8% YTD, supported by investment demand, central bank buying, and inflation concerns, despite weak jewellery sales.
  • GLD ETF gained 12.32% YTD, with strong inflows and bullish sentiment, though technical suggest possible short-term pullbacks.
  • CME gold options show bullish bets above $3,000, but rising put positions indicate some caution in the market.

Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Tech Weakness to Price in Will Be a Rough Start for Japan

By Andrew Jackson

  • MSFT cancelling leases for AI DC capacity sending semi-cap sharply lower.
  • Western Digital dropping after finalizing the split of its HDD and Sandisk businesses.
  • Japan trading houses will be a bright spot after Buffet’s letter signals more buying.

RBI’s Monetary Policy: Growth Amid Disinflation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The RBI MPC shifted its focus to balanced growth by cutting the repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25%, marking the first rate cut in five years.
  • This move creates a supportive monetary environment, potentially stimulating private capex, boosting household consumption, and fostering a stronger economic recovery amid moderating inflation.
  • Investors should now expect enhanced growth prospects and improved market liquidity, as the RBI’s flexible, data-driven approach signals long-term stability and resilience in the economy.

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Feb 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa
  • [Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY
  • [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 8/52]: Is JD’s Entry to Catering Real or Just Posturing?
  • DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa

By Mark Chadwick

  • Furukawa’s stock surged after announcing shareholder-friendly measures, including asset sales, a buyback, and a dividend hike; activist City Index takes some profits.
  • The Japanese market faced a volatile week, ultimately closing lower, with the Nikkei declining by 1% – a mix of strong macro data, tariffs, and yen moves
  • Daifuku surged 25% on strong earnings, cost savings, and a robust FY25 order outlook, reinforcing confidence in long-term growth.

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

By Eric Wen

  • A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese link is here. English here by Qwen;
  • XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;
  • CATL’s JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 8/52]: Is JD’s Entry to Catering Real or Just Posturing?

By Ying Pan

  • After JD.com announced it would insure catering riders with social security, Meituan followed suit. Then JD clarified its intension was only to insure a newly established rider force from scratch; 
  • Trump announced American First Investment Policy. Frankly we don’t see anything new. It will affect sentiment, maybe;
  • SASAC calls for SOE’s to adopt AI. This is a real positive to Alibaba.

DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

By David Mudd

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Feb 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): #108 India Insight: Adani Shifts to Cash Flow Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • #108 India Insight: Adani Shifts to Cash Flow Growth, Hiranandani Pune JV, Burman Controls Religare
  • Themes of India: Cement Industry Q3 Update
  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 23)- Ono Pharma, Shionogi, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, CSPC, Mayne

#108 India Insight: Adani Shifts to Cash Flow Growth, Hiranandani Pune JV, Burman Controls Religare

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Group shifts to cash flow-backed, high-capex growth phase aiming for leadership in renewable energy, ports, and infrastructure.
  • Hiranandani Group enters Pune with a Rs 7,000 crore JV project, developing a 105-acre integrated township in Hinjewadi.
  • The Burman family takes control of Religare Enterprises (RELG IN) , plans Rs. 2,000 crore capital infusion, rebranding, and new management team

Themes of India: Cement Industry Q3 Update

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Ultratech Cement (UTCEM IN) saw a resurgence in demand starting in December. CFO Atul Daga characterized this as a “positive storm,” fueled by continuous demand increases that boosted cement prices.  
  • Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) is strategically expanding capacity, aiming for cost leadership, and leveraging group synergies to reach 140 million tons of cement capacity by FY28.  
  • JK Cement Ltd (JKCE IN)’s proposed acquisition of 60% equity in Saifco Cements marks their penetration in Jammu-Kashmir(capacity- 0.42 Mn tons), which is expected to improve profitability, increase production capacity.

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 23)- Ono Pharma, Shionogi, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, CSPC, Mayne

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ono Pharmaceutical received FDA approval for Romvimza for the treatment of symptomatic tenosynovial giant cell tumor. Shionogi obtains domestic approval for digital therapeutic app, Endeavorride for ADHD.
  • Samsung Biologics received FDA and European Commission approval for Prolia biosimilar. Celltrion received European approval for Prolia and Eylea biosimilars. Cosette Pharmaceuticals is acquiring Mayne Pharma for A$7.40 per share.
  • CSPC Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive license to Radiance Biopharma to develop and commercialize antibody drug conjugates SYS6005 in selected geographies. Cipla received FDA approval for anti-cancer drug Nilotinib capsules.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Who Is Moving Indian Markets? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Who Is Moving Indian Markets?
  • #107 India Insight: PhonePe Plans IPO, Adani Sees Growth, Gujarat Budget Boosts Economy
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/02/2025

Who Is Moving Indian Markets?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Domestic investors (DIIs, retail, and HNIs) now hold 26.67% of non-promoter shares, narrowing the gap with FIIs, whose stakes have dropped to a 12-year low.
  • This shift signifies growing domestic confidence and a stabilizing market environment, reducing dependency on volatile FII flows amid global uncertainties.
  • Movement of the stock prices mostly dependent on FII moves rather than DII or Retail Investors. 

#107 India Insight: PhonePe Plans IPO, Adani Sees Growth, Gujarat Budget Boosts Economy

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • PhonePe, India’s largest digital payments player, begins IPO preparations after redomiciling to India in December 2022. With impressive growth and profitability.
  • Adani Group reassures investors and creditors with strong cash reserves and double-digit EBITDA growth. 
  • Gujarat’s Rs 3.70 trillion budget for 2025-26 includes no new taxes. Focus is on infrastructure, green growth, human development, and economic activities, with new projects.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/02/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Very high flow rate at bypassed zone boosts production and unlocks reserves – A potential bypassed 60 m gas pay section, identified using advanced cased-hole logging tools and reprocessed existing 3-D seismic data, was put in production over a 23 m perforated interval at a rate of 1,100 boe/d, increasing to 1,300 boe/d over the past five days as the completion fluid has been recovered.
  • The flow rate is above expectations and unlocks reserves.
  • This result showcases the potential upside at Condor’s Uzbekistan assets.

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Feb 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The US “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” & Its Impact on India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The US “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” & Its Impact on India
  • Japan Morning Connection: Walmart Results Raising Questions over the Overall Economy
  • Ohayo Japan | Walmart Warning Weighs on Markets
  • Regional Economics: More Competitive AI Landscape a Positive for Asia
  • Tencent, Baidu Look to Capitalize on DeepSeek’s Stunning Rise
  • Trump’s Tariffs Prompt Chinese E-Commerce Giants to Expand Beyond U.S.
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Steel and Aluminum Tariffs; Return-To-Work Enforcement, Realities
  • Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets

The US “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” & Its Impact on India

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The US has unveiled its “Fair and Reciprocal Plan,” signaling a shift to impose reciprocal tariffs, which specifically target high tariffs on products.
  • This move could reduce India’s export volumes, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, by raising US tariffs closer to India’s levels, potentially triggering a $7 billion export drop and deflationary pressures.
  • Investors and policymakers must now reassess India’s trade strategy; proactive measures such as bilateral agreements and targeted tariff reductions will be key to mitigating risks and stabilizing long-term economic growth.

Japan Morning Connection: Walmart Results Raising Questions over the Overall Economy

By Andrew Jackson

  • Japan defence may be buoyed by comments from Frances Macron that spending needs to rise.
  • Wild ride for Kokusai Electric continues as outstanding short interest jumps 46% over the last week.
  • Kura Sushi bringing back free meals – limit up yesterday, but with a big SI will there be more today?

Ohayo Japan | Walmart Warning Weighs on Markets

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks fell as Walmart (-6%) issued cautious guidance and Trump’s tariff plans weighed on sentiment. The Dow lost 450 points (-1%), while gold (+0.7%) hit a record high.
  • Yesterday the Nikkei fell 486 points to 38,678, led by declines in transportation and banking. Investors remain cautious on Trump’s tariffs
  • The yen strengthened to 149.92/USD on BOJ rate hike hints: Suzuki set a ¥8 trillion sales target by 2030, investing ¥1.2 trillion in India; SoftBank’s Arm plans its own-designed chips.

Regional Economics: More Competitive AI Landscape a Positive for Asia

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Short term economic and policy factors may hurt technology sector prospects in coming months but the structural factors continue to support growth in Asia.
  • Consumer and business demand for tech remain solid, but risks loom in the form of trade tensions.
  • In particular, Asia will benefit from a more competitive AI landscape as tech accessibility improves. Tech investments in Asia will also see growth.

Tencent, Baidu Look to Capitalize on DeepSeek’s Stunning Rise

By Caixin Global

  • Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Baidu Inc. are launching search functions powered by the large language models developed by DeepSeek, joining the ranks of global tech giants seeking to capitalize on the rise of the artificial intelligence (AI) developer that has sent a shockwave through the industry.
  • Tencent, for example, is incorporating the full version of the DeepSeek-R1 model into Weixin, the Chinese version of its instant messaging app WeChat, to power its search capabilities, though the function is still in beta testing, Tencent told Caixin in a statement Sunday.
  • While the function is in beta, selected users can use the “Search with AI” option from the search bar to access the R1-powered service, along with Tencent’s own AI model Hunyuan, the statement said.

Trump’s Tariffs Prompt Chinese E-Commerce Giants to Expand Beyond U.S.

By Caixin Global

  • Facing rising trade barriers and regulatory scrutiny in the United States and Europe, Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms are scrambling to diversify their markets and reduce reliance on any single region.
  • On Feb. 1, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and ending duty-free treatment for small parcels from China.
  • The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency enforced the order on Feb. 3, requiring all Chinese goods, including those from Hong Kong, to be formally declared and taxed.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Steel and Aluminum Tariffs; Return-To-Work Enforcement, Realities

By Water Tower Research

  • Tariffs and policy uncertainty don’t seem to be weighing down stocks in the furniture and furnishings space at this point.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 3.2%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index gained 6.4%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 1.2%, all better than the broader market indexes.
  • The US imposed across-the-board 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese automakers are pushing deeper into Central Asian markets through exports and manufacturing localization after Russia’s crackdown on a lucrative loophole that allowed re-exports of vehicles through Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states.
  • Carmakers including Chery Automobile Co. Ltd., Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. Ltd. (000625.SZ), Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp. Ltd. (JAC) (600418.SH) and Great Wall Motor Co. Ltd. have built a presence in the Kazakhstani market, which has developed a major taste for Chinese vehicles.
  • Last year, China-made cars accounted for 39% of the 205,111 vehicles sold in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy.

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise as Fed Signals Steady Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise as Fed Signals Steady Rates, Trump Escalates Tariffs
  • Consumer Stocks – Waiting to Catch a Fire
  • Data Center: How Indian Companies Are Capitalizing on the Digital Boom?
  • Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Drive SOX Higher, Defence Down
  • #105 India Insight: Gold Leasing Rates Surge, Tax Cuts Ease Foreign Firms’ Burden, Unilever Expands
  • India –Electric Two-Wheeler Sales Trend – January 2025
  • #106 India Insight: Adani Cement Targets 140 Mtpa by 2028; Vedanta Demerger Gets 83% Nod; SEC Probes

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise as Fed Signals Steady Rates, Trump Escalates Tariffs

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P gained 0.2% to a record 6,144; Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year at 4.53%; NKY Futs -0.5% vs cash
  • Listed companies’ profits are expected to reach a record ¥50 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2025, up 6% year-on-year
  • Mitsui & Co. acquired a 40% stake in the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project in Australia for ¥600 billion

Consumer Stocks – Waiting to Catch a Fire

By Rikki Malik

  • Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
  • Expectations are so low that there is  a high probability of upside surprises
  • An unloved sector that will rerate on any positive catalyst

Data Center: How Indian Companies Are Capitalizing on the Digital Boom?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s data center market currently holds an approximately 3% share globally, despite generating 20% of the world’s data which signifies the scope of opportunity.
  • ICRA projects India’s data center operational capacity to more than 2x with an estimated investment of Rs. 50k-55k Crs fueled by the increasing demand for colocation services.
  • Management of key players like Tata Communications (TCOM IN) and Anant Raj Ltd (ARCP IN) highlight the immense growth potential of the Indian data center market.

Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Drive SOX Higher, Defence Down

By Andrew Jackson

  • Good numbers from Analog Devices pointing to a bottom should help likes of Rohm and Fuji Electric.
  • SMCI tear continues, will Nidec keep moving up after yesterdays gains?
  • Sanken Electric +10.45% yesterday finally starting to catch a bid on ALGM gains.

#105 India Insight: Gold Leasing Rates Surge, Tax Cuts Ease Foreign Firms’ Burden, Unilever Expands

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Gold leasing rates have surged from 2-3% to 6-7%, squeezing jewellers margins. Higher funding costs and volatile gold prices are forcing industry leaders to reconsider pricing strategies.
  • Foreign companies in India paid the lowest tax on earnings in over 30 years in FY24, with the tax burden dropping significantly due to corporate tax cuts and GST reforms.
  • Despite slow growth in India, Unilever (UL US) remains committed to its local operations, with plans to focus on expanding its beauty & wellbeing segment as part of its 2030 strategy.

India –Electric Two-Wheeler Sales Trend – January 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria

#106 India Insight: Adani Cement Targets 140 Mtpa by 2028; Vedanta Demerger Gets 83% Nod; SEC Probes

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Cement is actively pursuing acquisitions in South India and the North-East to boost its capacity to 140 MTPA by 2028.
  • Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) has secured 83% creditor approval for its demerger plan, surpassing the 75% required threshold. 
  • The U.S. SEC has requested India’s help in investigating Gautam Adani and his nephew over alleged securities fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme.

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