Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai
  • China TMT Update(Oct.8)-TSLA/JD/ATAT/TCOM/3690.HK-JD.com Launches “Enjoy Now, Pay Later” Service


Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market: The broader Topix Index ended the week 59 points, or -2.6%,
  • Movers: Kusuri No Aoki Holdings shares rose sharply this week after the Japanese drugstore operator’s first-quarter profit climbed (+49% yoy)
  • Activist Watch: Dalton have also taken significant positions in Rinnai and Nitta

China TMT Update(Oct.8)-TSLA/JD/ATAT/TCOM/3690.HK-JD.com Launches “Enjoy Now, Pay Later” Service

By Shawn Yang

  • TSLA/JD:JD.com will launch Tesla car ordering service ( + )
  • JD:JD.com launches “Enjoy now, pay later” service, with high barriers and limited impact (/)
  • ATAT/TCOM: Highway traffic during national holiday will reach historicalhigh( +)

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks


China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

By Victor Galliano

  • In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward, as well as the returns trends that can absorb potentially worsening cost of risk charges
  • China bank shares continue to be poor performers; yet we see selective contrarian buy opportunities, for those banks with deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheets including credit quality metrics
  • We stick with Industrial Bank and CCB as buys, adding Ping An Bank to the buys both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng remains our fundamental sell

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Down as Investors Await Payrolls; Downbeat on Airline Sustainability Plans and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Down as Investors Await Payrolls; Downbeat on Airline Sustainability Plans
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 29 Sep – 5 Oct, 2023


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Down as Investors Await Payrolls; Downbeat on Airline Sustainability Plans

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: Stocks weaker ahead of Friday Non-farm payroll data; yields ease slightly; UK’s Metro Bank stock -30%
  • JAPAN: Nikkei futures point to flat opening; Kyowa Kirin to acquire UK biotech company; Honda N-Box best selling car in Japan
  • JapanX – Reality starting to sink in as airlines worry about the costs of sustainability

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 29 Sep – 5 Oct, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Recover; Hitachi Zosen’s Cheap Cuts of Lab-Grown Meat and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Recover; Hitachi Zosen’s Cheap Cuts of Lab-Grown Meat
  • Indian Life Insurance (And Savings) Sector Primer – Long-Term Potential and Strong Operating Margins
  • Australia – New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens
  • Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 29, 2023


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Recover; Hitachi Zosen’s Cheap Cuts of Lab-Grown Meat

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: SPX +0.8% as stocks recover from recent steep losses;  ADP data hints at slower pace of job growth; bond yields eased off
  • JAPAN: Nikkei Futures (+0.5% v cash) point to stronger open, JPY 149/$. Toyota signs long-term battery deal with LG Energy; Docomo takes stake in Monex.
  • JapanX: Hitachi Zosen slashes lab-grown meat protein cost by 90%

Indian Life Insurance (And Savings) Sector Primer – Long-Term Potential and Strong Operating Margins

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • Indian Life Insurance Sector is a play on lucrative Indian demographics, under-penetration of life insurance and retirement savings across cohorts of the population.
  • The large firmsSBI Life, HDFC Life , LIC IN , ICICI Pru, MAXF IN are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as they dominate the market.
  • This “Primer” sets the stage for the company-specific notes to follow. Here we discuss the sector level issues, key metrics and relative valuations. See attached PDF- Free access.

Australia – New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Australia Securities & Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.
  • In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period.
  • Hotel & food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia’s banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs.

Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 29, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI last week. The third quarter ended on a down note, with the S&P 500 losing 3.7% and the Russell 2000 dropping 2.7%.
  • Our WTR-CMI index slightly underperformed the Russell 2000, declining 3.0% for the week. Coincidently, RYAM led the performance of stocks in our index, appreciating 18% last week, as news spread of one of its main competitors in commodity markets announcing the intention to shut down a major wood pulp production plant in the US
  • Lithium (LAC and PLL) and ag- chem stocks (FMC and AVD) were the worst performers in our index last week on lower lithium prices and signs of slowing EV demand, and a weaker farmer outlook for 2024/25 season.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Turmoil in Washington and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Turmoil in Washington, Stocks & JPY; Japan Rail Lifting Tourist Pass Prices
  • Singapore – New Monthly B/S: Trade Finance Loans -24% YoY, Fixed Deposits +37% YoY at 50% of Total


Ohayo Japan | Turmoil in Washington, Stocks & JPY; Japan Rail Lifting Tourist Pass Prices

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: US stocks sink, bond yields surge on hot jobs data. SPX dropped -1.4%
  • JAPAN: NKY futures continue to decline -1.6% vs cash. JPY volatility as hits 150/$. Weak September sales at Uniqlo; strong US sales for Toyota
  • JAPAN X – JR companies raising prices for tourist passes another sign that bosses keen to protect ROE

Singapore – New Monthly B/S: Trade Finance Loans -24% YoY, Fixed Deposits +37% YoY at 50% of Total

By Daniel Tabbush

  • New monthly balance sheet is out for Singapore banks, so we have a window on 3Q23 with data through 1 August. Total loans -6.0% YoY worse than -5.5% preceding month.
  • Trade finance loans are moving well lower. Growth rate is -24% YoY in latest month with negative double digit growth YoY since January.
  • Fixed deposits are surging, latest month +37% YoY and these higher cost monies are now 50% of total deposits, compared with 37% of total one year ago.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: US Big Tech Higher; Shipping Giants Join Hydrogen Supply Chain and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: US Big Tech Higher; Shipping Giants Join Hydrogen Supply Chain
  • Mattress Imports – July Imports Drop Sharply; ITC Preliminary Finding Favors US Petitioners


Ohayo Japan: US Big Tech Higher; Shipping Giants Join Hydrogen Supply Chain

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: Dow Jones falls 0.2%, Yields surge ahead of Friday Jobs report, Nvidia up almost 3%
  • JAPAN: Nikkei futures -0.5% vs cash. Tankan (business sentiment) improved in the third quarter, particularly among big non-manufacturers, reaching levels not seen since 1991
  • JAPAN X: Three Japanese Shipping Giants join Hydrogen Supply Chain. Japan is well on its way to achieving its hydrogen targets

Mattress Imports – July Imports Drop Sharply; ITC Preliminary Finding Favors US Petitioners

By Water Tower Research

  • Somewhat belatedly, we update our continuing analyses on US mattress imports, with the July 2023 mattress import data as posted on the Department of Commerce, US International Trade Commission Data Web.

  •  Importantly, we also discuss and comment on the progress of the July 2023 anti-dumping duty (AD) / countervailing duty (CVD) petition and the preliminary investigations by the USITC.

  • Following an August 18 conference, the USITC issued a Preliminary Findings and Staff Report that found “a reasonable indication that an industry in the United States is materially injured by reason of imports of mattresses” from 12 countries listed under New AD12 at the right.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK


Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: The S&P 500 had a challenging September, closing down 5% for the month, marking its worst monthly performance since December 2022
  • JAPAN: Euglena shifts focus to commercial biofuels, Welcia partners with AEON for increased food sales, and Hitachi Zosen revolutionizes artificial meat with a 90% cost reduction in synthetic protein
  • JAPAN X: Growth in EV sales can only be sustained if charging demand is met by accessible and affordable infrastructure

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Stocks Slump and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Slump, Oracle Outperforms, Activists Accumulate
  • China Banks: Depressed Positioning
  • US Big Banks – Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total


Japan Weekly | Stocks Slump, Oracle Outperforms, Activists Accumulate

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese stocks limped towards the end of the quarter, with Topix ending the week -2.2% lower. Bond yields hit 10 year high and yen ended play at Y149/$
  • Economic momentum may be slowing and tech stocks plumbing new lows, but Oracle Japan surprised the market with 12% top line growth in the first quarter. 
  • Yet more foreign / activist buying in the drug store sector. Consolidation is the story and Orbis want to write the ending.

China Banks: Depressed Positioning

By Steven Holden

  • Fund exposure to China & HK Banks closes in on lowest levels on record
  • Asia Ex-Japan investors prefer Indian and Indonesian Banks, whilst Tech/Internet industry groups dominate portfolios.
  • China & HK Banks stand as the largest industry underweight, with 87% of funds positioned below the benchmark. Underperformance is expected.

US Big Banks – Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta.
  • Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week’s data. CRE loans see worsening contraction.
  • Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns


Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns

By Jeroen Blokland

  • First and foremost, we are not positive about US homebuilders due to the sharp decline in housing market activity caused by the significantly increased mortgage rates.
  • The correlation between the future performance of the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index relative to the broad S&P 500 Index and the level of the NAHB Market Index is ZERO.
  • In addition, there is no correlation between the performance of US homebuilders and CHANGES in the NAHB Market Index.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Stocks & SOX Higher; JapanX – Delayed UK Climate Plans Threaten Heat Pump Adoption and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Stocks & SOX Higher; JapanX – Delayed UK Climate Plans Threaten Heat Pump Adoption
  • Australia Banks – New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023
  • Restaurant & Retail Roundup – Interview with Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW)


Ohayo Japan: Stocks & SOX Higher; JapanX – Delayed UK Climate Plans Threaten Heat Pump Adoption

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: US stocks +0.6% – its all macro at the moment – higher interest rates, oil price volatility; US 30y mortgage rates now at 7.3%; Nike earnings beat 
  • JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.4% vs cash. Toyota Aug production +4%; EPCOs to lower residential electricity prices; Sony’s Game unit gets new interim boss. 
  • JAPAN X: Daikin’s concerns about the UK Government backtracking on its climate pledge highlight our concerns over heat pump adoption

Australia Banks – New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
  • Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
  • General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Restaurant & Retail Roundup – Interview with Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW)

By Water Tower Research

  • Monthly report on restaurant and retail companies. At Water Tower Research, we are introducing a new monthly report to focus exclusively on the Restaurant and Retail Industries.

  • Our report will focus on stock performance, short interest, an outlook for restaurant commodity costs, interesting themes, and company interviews.

  • In this note, we interviewed Gary Schnierow, Vice-President of Investor Relations, and Corporate Finance for Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBW). 


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