Thematic (Sector/Industry)

OVERSEAS: US Stocks fall after Labor Day Holidays with SPX -0.4% and only 3/11 Sectors rise; US Yields rise amid rush by Corporates to issue Bonds; Oil Breaches $90
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 147.7; Japan FY24 Budget requests hit 114 trillion yen; KKR prepares to relist Kokusai at 400bn valuation
JAPAN X: Nasdaq gains popularity as Japanese Startups Opt for Overseas Listings. The JPX needs to take heed otherwise it will end up missing out on significant local IPO opportunities.

Country Garden – Exploring The Project Portfolio Profile

By Robert Ciemniak

In this note, we explore some aspects of the composition of Country Garden’s projects – the cities and provinces where Country Garden has the most exposure
We overlay the disclosure data on exposure by province and top projects, with a few housing market metrics
Drawing on wider data, we compare the scale of Country Garden and Evergrande in greater detail

China TMT Update- 1810.HK/AAPL/BILI/LI/XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA/Leap-Huawei Mate 60/Pretty Derby/9mn NEV

1810.HK/AAPL: Huawei Mate 60 supply chain order volume may have reached 15-17mn units (-/-)
BILI（-）： Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby” is experiencing a sharp decline in popularity.
LI/XPEV/NIO/BYD/ TSLA/ Leap: MIIT Aims for 9mn NEV Sales in 2023 (+/+/+/+/+/+)

CSRC’s IPO Reform and Its Impact on China Healthcare Investment

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty/IPO/reduction of shares held by listed companies. These new policies may profoundly rewrite the investment logic of the primary and secondary markets.
IPOs may no longer be as attractive to founders. The era of M&A is coming. Investors will prefer companies with positive cash flow, solid commercialization performance, and close to/already breakeven.
In the new context, good stories of high growth alone but with long-term losses may not be effective. We recommend overweight companies with high buybacks/dividend payout, which could eventually outperform.

Tech Talk: Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a diverse field affecting many industries.
With an estimated market size of $137 billion in 2022, it is projected to grow significantly to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of 38%.
While deep learning large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have recently caught the imagination of many, we also want to highlight machine learning (ML), computer perception, and natural language processing (NLP).

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending September 1, 2023

Global equities had a strong week, with the MSCI World Index +2.62% and the S&P 500 +2.55%.
The NASDAQ jumped 3.25%, while small caps led the rally this week, finishing up 3.69%.
The advance was driven by signs of a softening labor market that may make the Fed pause further interest rate hikes.

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Sep 05

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Lack of Direction with US Closed; JAPAN X: JFE to Raise ¥200bn for Green Steel Drive and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan| Lack of Direction with US Closed; JAPAN X: JFE to Raise ¥200bn for Green Steel Drive
China TMT Update-TSLA/XPEV/1211/IQ/Beke:Beijing and Shanghai Housing Loan Loosening;revamped Model 3

Ohayo Japan| Lack of Direction with US Closed; JAPAN X: JFE to Raise ¥200bn for Green Steel Drive

OVERSEAS. US LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. With US out, No leaders in Global Equities; European shares closed flat on thin Volumes; China’s measures to support Property market taking hold.
JAPAN.US Markets Off. NKY Futs vs Cash -0.1%; USDJPY 146.5; Nikkei Rebal: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori ADDED; Nippon Sheet Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT; JFE 200bn Equity/CB raising
JAPAN X: JFE Holdings Plans to Raise ¥200 Billion for Carbon Emissions Reduction Efforts. Still need clarity willingness of customers to accept “green pricing”. Watch Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel.

China TMT Update-TSLA/XPEV/1211/IQ/Beke:Beijing and Shanghai Housing Loan Loosening;revamped Model 3

TSLA/XPEV/1211: Tesla starts presales of revamped Model 3 in China at higher starting price (/-/-)
IQ：iQiYi’s drama pipeline was affected by lead actress Zu‘er(Lareina) Song’s tax evasion inspection (-)
Real Estate Industry Update/Beke: Beijing and Shanghai followed on implementing the housing loan loosening policy, transaction willingness improved immediately

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Sep 04

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Kubota and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Kubota, Hitachi Construction, Ain
Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth
[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: Huawei Mate 60 Is a Win-Win for Both US and China

Japan Weekly | Kubota, Hitachi Construction, Ain

Japanese stocks had a good week with Topix up +3.68% and +24.21% year-to-date
Japanese exporters are seeing better pricing power in key overseas markets – the weak yen is an additional tailwind
Weakness in the Chinese economy is impacting stocks that benefit from a strong Chinese consumer and inbound tourism

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

OVERSEAS: US Stock Cap strong week with positive gains; Payrolls jumped, but so did Unemployment rate=past peak rates ? China slowdown fueling worries about Contagion.
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore Wind; Japan-UK to cooperate in next Gen nuclear plants; ARM Pricing ~50 billion USD.
JAPAN X: Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric Poised to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth.

[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: Huawei Mate 60 Is a Win-Win for Both US and China

From what we understand, the Kirin 9000s that powers Huawei’s new 5G phone is the same 9000 that launched in 2020, only refitted from TSMC’s 5nm to SMIC’s 7nm.
The good news is capacity will likely reach 50-60mn a year, or 17% of China’s smartphone volume in 2022;
Huawei’s launch of 5G does speak volumes about the strides China’s semiconductor supply chain has made, but its timing also takes advantage of the defusing of geopolitical tensions.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors
AI Proliferation in Casinos a Blessing or a Curse for the Casino Sector Ahead
US Large Banks – Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve
GEMWeekly (1 Sep 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Xpeng, Baidu

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture & storage, among others.
By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.

AI Proliferation in Casinos a Blessing or a Curse for the Casino Sector Ahead

By Howard J Klein

AI is coming to casinos, especially fast to Asian sector properties which are always early adapters of tech breakthroughs.
Ironically, without human contact, AI can produce far more personalized marketing campaigns with better returns than human contact judgments.
AI could be an exponential advance in fraud deetection, suspicious transaction reductios and problem gambling risk that regulator will embrace, if not mandate.

US Large Banks – Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

Weekly balance sheet data for US large banks shows another USD3bn decline in total loans
Large time deposits rose USD16bn in the week, YoY growth is accelerating, now 77.2% YoY
Risk aversion clearest with CRE loans, where growth is 0.41% YoY in most recent week

GEMWeekly (1 Sep 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Xpeng, Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: China and Asia PMI data, South Korean industrial production.
Companies mentioned this week:XPeng (9868 HK), Baidu (9888 HK)

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Sep 02

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Q2’23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Q2’23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook

Q2’23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook

By William Keating

Q2’23 marked a turning point with semi sales, memory, silicon wafer & PC shipments PC registering modest QoQ growth while smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut.
Despite this positive turn of events, the memory segment remains mired in losses and the outlook for foundry is getting worse, not better
The much anticipated second half recovery will be muted at best

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Sep 01

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023
China TMT Update-FUTU/BIDU/700.HK/BABA/Boss Zhipin-FUTU Expand in Japan/Approval to AI/PMI Improved

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

China TMT Update-FUTU/BIDU/700.HK/BABA/Boss Zhipin-FUTU Expand in Japan/Approval to AI/PMI Improved

Futu Holdings: Zero-commission stock trading to debut in Japan next month（-）
BIDU/700.HK/BABA: CAC has approved the filing of 11 LLM products and they are now open to the whole society(+)
Boss Zhipin: China PMI marginal improved, employment activities remain lukewarm

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Aug 31

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High
US Banks – Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further
China TMT Update-Douyin/Baba/JD/3690.HK/9699.HK-Meituan’s Cooperation with SF Intra-City
China TMT Update-Zlab/BILI/Tencent/NetEase-The Latest Batch of Game Code/Umamusume: Pretty Derby
[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: NetEase Has Better Pipeline in Gamescom-Cologne
10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation
China Property – The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High

OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates – Equities continue upward trajectory; 9/11 SPX sectors up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program
JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM

US Banks – Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further

Weekly data to 23 July in the US shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates hitting new highs at 7.23%
The past two weeks show mortgage rate increases accelerating, and up 45bps from 20 July data
Mortgage loan volume index is approaching 1990, weekly purchases index continues downward

China TMT Update-Douyin/Baba/JD/3690.HK/9699.HK-Meituan’s Cooperation with SF Intra-City

” EastBuy 东方甄选 ” is conducting live broadcasts on Taobao.
JD.com officially launches the upgraded ” Spring Dawn Plan “
3690.HK/9699.HK/JD: Meituan announces cooperation with SF Intra-city and others (+/+/-)

China TMT Update-Zlab/BILI/Tencent/NetEase-The Latest Batch of Game Code/Umamusume: Pretty Derby

Novecure’s TTF Phase III trial failed to reach end point, negative for ZLAB （-）
“Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby” launched by Bilibili on August 29
NPPA recently released the latest batch of August approvals of game license

[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: NetEase Has Better Pipeline in Gamescom-Cologne

At the recent Gamescom-Cologne event, both Tencent and NetEase showcased their latest games. We believe that NetEase has a stronger game pipeline compared to Tencent.
According to our estimates, the total annual gross billings from all the games showcased by Tencent should be around RMB 9-12 bn, while NetEase’s should be 10-13 bn.
This accounts for approximately 6.3% and 15.6% of their respective gaming revenues in 2024. We maintain a buy rating for both companies, but NetEase remains our top pick.

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

By Tina Banerjee

On August 29, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.
The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.

China Property – The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists
The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates
Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days

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Aug 30

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India
What Will BRICS Bring to the World? – The Rise of The Rest
Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended August 25, 2023

Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges ->NDX100 +2.2%; China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy; BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen’s buying power at 53 year low; Japan’s jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate
JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India.

What Will BRICS Bring to the World? – The Rise of The Rest

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BRICS announced expansion of members. The intention behind is obvious – Based on successful westward integration, the future pattern and trends of the entire world would already be clear.
Setting up BRICS currency immediately seems “too hasty”. However, as de-dollarization is a consensus, a suitable payment system would be established sooner or later given the economy size/resources of BRICS.
The international order is about to undergo a radical change, and the trend of multipolarity will continue to accelerate. This would put more investment options on the table for investors.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended August 25, 2023

RROYF provides a non-dilutive royalty financing solution (through a combination of short-term loans and the acquisition of revenue-based royalties) to privately held and publicly traded renewable energy and clean energy technology companies.
RROYF’s objective is to acquire a portfolio of long-term, stable, diversified renewable energy royalty and income streams to provide shareholders with capital appreciation and a growing, sustainable, long-term cash distribution.
RROYF is a pioneer and the first publicly traded company to provide this royalty financing for the renewable energy and clean technology sector.

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Aug 29

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Equities Start on a Positive Note; JAPAN X: Idemitsu Ramps Up for Solid State Batteries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan| Equities Start on a Positive Note; JAPAN X: Idemitsu Ramps Up for Solid State Batteries
US Small Banks – New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital
[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies
China TMT Update-Bili/XPEV/DiDi/SE/PDD-Xpeng Acquire DiDi’s EV Project/Temu Enters the Philippines
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending August 25, 2023

Ohayo Japan| Equities Start on a Positive Note; JAPAN X: Idemitsu Ramps Up for Solid State Batteries

OVERSEAS: US Equities start on a postive note with SPX, NDX, SOX all gaining; 10/11 SPX sectors rose; Tech lead as US Yields Fell; China Stocks Surged on Govt Measures
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.5; NKY records strongest day in Aug; JP Retail turn net buyers; Companies Make promises to boost share px; H2A Rocket Launch Delayed
JAPAN X: Idemitsu Kosan Prepares for All-Solid-State Battery Era with Production Boost. All is is being driven by Toyota-which is leading to way to commercialization of solid state batteries.

US Small Banks – New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans
US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions
Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach…
To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.
LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.

China TMT Update-Bili/XPEV/DiDi/SE/PDD-Xpeng Acquire DiDi’s EV Project/Temu Enters the Philippines

Bilibili has announced the latest incentive policies for the “Spark Program.”
XPEV/DiDi: Xpeng to acquire DiDi’s Smart EV project and establish strategic partnership with DiDi (+/+)
SE / PDD: Temu enters the Philippines ( – / +)

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending August 25, 2023

NVIDIA ended the week -2.02% but is still +215.02% YTD.
It was a quiet week for cannabis stocks and the US cannabis MSOS ETF drifted 1.21% lower.
Curaleaf (CSE: CURA, OTCQX: CURLF) +3.94% and MariMed (CSE: MRMD, OTCQX: MRMD) +3.30% were among the bright spots, while Ascend (CSE: AAWH, OTCQX: AAWH) -13.14% was hit hard again this week.

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Aug 28

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Advantest and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Advantest, Nihon M&A, Sumi Pharm
Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell’s Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank’s $7bn Boost for Local Startups
The Curious Case of Big Tech
US Banks – New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

Japan Weekly | Advantest, Nihon M&A, Sumi Pharm

A sharp reversal for Japanese stocks on Friday ahead of Jackson Hole, after four straight days of gains
Weak PMIs globally point to a cooling of economic activity, but Powell’s speech was fixated on inflation
Advantest was slammed 10% on Friday following a reversal in Nvidia shares, which initially spiked on record quarterly earnings.

Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell’s Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank’s $7bn Boost for Local Startups

OVERSEAS: US Equities rise for the first week in four; Jackson Hole: Powell leaves open possibility of further hikes/ECB’s Largarde strikes hawkish tone for EU; China’s Economic Pain to Continue
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ’s Ueda at Jackson Hole says Japan inflation below target; Kishida’s Approval rating improves; Japan to double EV Charging Stations.
JAPAN X: Japan Post Bank’s Trillion Yen Boost set to propel the Japan start up ecosystem to new highs – while creating a new revenue stream for the bank.

The Curious Case of Big Tech

By MBI Deep Dives

In aggregate, Big Tech was worth $1.1 Tn at the end of 2012.
Over the last ten years (2013-2022), Big Tech collectively generated $2.3 Tn Operating Cash Flow (OCF), slightly more than double their aggregate market cap ten years ago!
To say it differently, Big Tech was a form of deep value investing that was deeply underappreciated even though they are all widely followed companies at that time!

US Banks – New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY