Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Nov 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks, Yields, Oil Higher; SiC Chip Technology for Automotive Evolution
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Furniture Back in Focus After Strong HNI Quarter

Ohayo Japan | Stocks, Yields, Oil Higher; SiC Chip Technology for Automotive Evolution

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.2% , Nasdaq +0.3%; Subdued start to the week after recent gains; Yields higher with 10Y at 4.65%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.3% v cash. JPY 150/$; Ueda sees increasing chance of hitting 2% inflation goal
  • JapanX: Denso & Mitsubishi Elec Investing in SiC Chip Technology for Automotive Evolution

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Furniture Back in Focus After Strong HNI Quarter

By Water Tower Research

  • The commercial/contract (office) furniture stocks rallied last week following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report.
  • The commercial/contract furniture issues rose more than 12.7%, outperforming the broad indexes, with HNI leading the group.
  • HNI’s 3Q report reinforced the sector story. Sales remain challenging. Improved pricing, a focus on costs, and eliminating unprofitable distractions restored margins.

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Nov 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | The Bulls Are Back; Toyota Navigating the EV Transition and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | The Bulls Are Back; Toyota Navigating the EV Transition
  • Interpretation of China’s Central Financial Work Conference – the Big Changes and the Outlook

Ohayo Japan | The Bulls Are Back; Toyota Navigating the EV Transition

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.9% , Nasdaq +1.2%; US stocks up on lull in job market. Volatility recedes.
  • Today: NKY Futs +1.2% v cash. JPY 149.4/$; Japan approves Stimulus package to fight inflation; Honda China sales strong in Oct
  • JapanX: Toyota’s record profits, driven by a diversified drivetrain approach, will fund its shift to EVs

Interpretation of China’s Central Financial Work Conference – the Big Changes and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China holds tone-setting national financial work conference.It’s rare for the country’s top leaders to directly express a high level of dissatisfaction with the financial work of the past few years.
  • China emphasizes the “political stance” of financial practitioners, who (regardless of the industry/sector they belong to) would have to face “significant changes”, which are prompting investors to think ahead.
  • The era of finance as a profiteering has passed.It’s increasingly difficult to have excess returns under the banner of serving real economy, but some industries are still prioritized, indicating opportunities.

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Nov 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.3)-Share Price Correction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.3)-Share Price Correction,Valuable Shortcut,Globalization Vs Innovation
  • GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): China, South Korea, Taiwan Macro; Nvidia, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.3)-Share Price Correction,Valuable Shortcut,Globalization Vs Innovation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Globalization and innovation are two core paths for companies’ development, but with completely different effects.Instead of rushing to go global, it’s better to calm down to focus on R&D first.
  • Many domestic companies choose Me-Too strategy, which is considered a “shortcut”. However, Me-Too strategy is not always successful. We analyzed different scenarios to help investors better distinguish valuable Me-Too strategies.
  • There could be a potential short-term correction in healthcare sector. Since trading opportunities remain, rebound would come next, but stock-picking would not be the same as in the past.

GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): China, South Korea, Taiwan Macro; Nvidia, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent

By Wium Malan, CFA

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown
  • Japan Equities | Stocks Surge; Food & Tech Sectors Rally
  • More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction
  • More China-U.S. Flights Unlikely to Bring Down High Ticket Prices

Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown

By Pranay Yadav

  • Amazon’s cloud market share is roughly the sum of Microsoft and Google market share put together.  Microsoft’s market share is twice that of Google.
  • After stupendous growth over the last five years, cloud business continues to grow but at a slowing pace. Amid tech spend cuts, not every cloud vertical is set to grow.
  • Those cloud providers enabling AI workloads are primed to soar despite shrinking cloud budgets.

Japan Equities | Stocks Surge; Food & Tech Sectors Rally

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Japanese surge as the US maintains interest rates and Bank of Japan only makes minor adjustments to YCC
  • Major Movers: Food companies were the big winners this week with all benefitting from strong overseas earnings
  • Activist Watch: Strategic Capital lift their stake in Toa Road by 1pt to 10.3%

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

By Andrew Lu

  • During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
  • A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low.
  • China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.

More China-U.S. Flights Unlikely to Bring Down High Ticket Prices

By Caixin Global

  • The number of weekly flights between China and the U.S. will increase again next month, sparking hopes that more supply will put downward pressure on sky-high ticket prices.

  • But industry insiders warned that the cost of a ticket won’t drop significantly anytime soon, as low travel demand means American airlines are taking a “cautious” approach to resuming operations.

  • From Nov. 9, Chinese carriers will be able to operate 35 weekly round-trips to the U.S., according to a U.S. Department of Transportation order issued Friday. 

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Nov 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part I) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part I)
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2023
  • US Banks – New Weekly Balance Sheets: C&I Loan Growth Turns Negative | Cash +15% | All Loans +1%

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part I)

By Alexis Dwek

  • Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
  • However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
  • Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

US Banks – New Weekly Balance Sheets: C&I Loan Growth Turns Negative | Cash +15% | All Loans +1%

By Daniel Tabbush

  • New weekly balance sheets for US large banks shows C&I loan growth turning negative. De-risking continues with cash balances up 15.1% YoY, the fourth week of double digit growth.
  • Total loan growth is nearly negative with the most recent week’s release showing further slowing to 1.11% YoY in week to18 October.
  • With all of this, US large banks are accelerating their more expensive jumbo time deposits, with growth now at 115% YoY and adding USD26bn in the week.

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Nov 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally After Fed Decision; Toyota Funding Japan’s Hydrogen-Powered Future and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally After Fed Decision; Toyota Funding Japan’s Hydrogen-Powered Future

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally After Fed Decision; Toyota Funding Japan’s Hydrogen-Powered Future

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.8%; Fed keeps rates unchanged for second consecutive time; tech outperforms; AMD +9.7%, Micron +3.8%
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.9% v cash. JPY 150.9; Yen remains weak post BOJ decision; Toyota hikes pay for US workers
  • JapanX: The global hydrogen market is undergoing a dynamic shift, with Japan and Advantage Partners at the forefront of this transformative journey.

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Nov 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Looking Forward to November; Munger Thanks God for Japanese Trading Houses and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Looking Forward to November; Munger Thanks God for Japanese Trading Houses
  • What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?
  • Aditya Vision, EMIL- Forensic Analysis
  • Five Key Takeaways in Five Charts from 26th GlobOil 2023 Conference in India
  • Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended October 27, 2023

Ohayo Japan | Looking Forward to November; Munger Thanks God for Japanese Trading Houses

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.5%; Indices finish higher after a difficult month. Mega-cap tech stocks lagged; Fed decision today.
  • Today: NKY Futs+1.6% v cash. JPY 151.7; BoJ monetary tweaks send Yen even lower. Toyota announces massive US battery capex plan; NTT Law under review.
  • JapanX: Charlie Munger describes Warren Buffett’s investment in Japanese trading houses in 2020 as “like having God just opening a chest and just pouring money into it”

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

By Andrew Lu

  • SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.
  • However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. 
  • The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries’ capex.

Aditya Vision, EMIL- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Aditya Vision (AVL IN) and Electronics Mart India (EMIL IN) are two organized regional players in the consumer durables industry with a rapid growth in the last year.
  • AVL carries several governance setbacks, including nomination and remuneration of directors and shareholding, along with some irregularities across balance sheet line items and cash management woes.
  • EMIL even though relatively better on the disclosure side has its own threats to the balance sheet, which includes litigations scare, trademark filing.

Five Key Takeaways in Five Charts from 26th GlobOil 2023 Conference in India

By Pranay Yadav

  • Global Vegetable Oil market remains in imbalance. This is expected to continue in the near future on accelerating demand and gradual supply.
  • India is and will continue to be the largest importer of vegetable oil.
  • National Trade & EXIM Policy has an outsized influence on price.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It’s a spooky time in markets.
  • So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.
  • I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended October 27, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index fell by 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.6%).
  • Energy Technology (12.9% of the index) was down by 4.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.9% of the index) was down 1.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 6.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 4.2%.
  • Top 10 Performers: NVVE, AZRE, GCEI, NEP, RE, ALTA, FIX, MULN, RIDE, CGRN

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Oct 31
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): HK RE Series (1): Picking the Winners for 2024 with Supportive Macro Backdrop & Company Catalysts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • HK RE Series (1): Picking the Winners for 2024 with Supportive Macro Backdrop & Company Catalysts
  • Ohayo Japan | Eyes on the BoJ; Toyo Engineering a Play on Controversial Biomass
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Earnings Misses Lead Home Furnishings Lower
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 27, 2023

HK RE Series (1): Picking the Winners for 2024 with Supportive Macro Backdrop & Company Catalysts

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this original series, we do a deep-dive on 4 HK real estate companies: SHKP, CKA, NWD, LINK REIT, and explain why we think they have an exciting year ahead
  • We believe the current macro backdrop in US, China and Hong Kong will support our investment thesis in real estate, with each company having additional catalysts to drive re-rating
  • Depending on investors’ appetite, style and mandate, we discuss multiple trading strategies that can play around these 4 names, including absolute, relative and yield plays

Ohayo Japan | Eyes on the BoJ; Toyo Engineering a Play on Controversial Biomass

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.1%; Oil prices slide. Nike, GS, and Verizon all up over 3%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.3% v cash. JPY 149.1; All eyes on the Bank of Japan meeting
  • JapanX: Biomass Energy – A Controversial Path to Sustainable Power in Japan, but good news for Toyo Engineering

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Earnings Misses Lead Home Furnishings Lower

By Water Tower Research

  • Home goods retailers and furniture manufacturers fell in a week of tough earnings news.
  • Ethan Allen Interiors (ETD) reported adjusted EPS of $0.63 for 1QFY24, down from $1.11 last year and below consensus of $0.72.
  • Positives in the quarter included a 70-basis point improvement in gross margin of 61.1% despite 23% lower sales.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 27, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Stocks got hammered again this week, with the MSCI World Index falling 2.24% and the S&P 500 losing 2.50%.
  • The S&P is off 10.61% from its July 7 high, which is formally a correction. Higher yields and mixed mega-cap tech earnings have driven the decline.
  • Cannabis stocks continued their six-week slide. The US cannabis MSOS ETF lost 21.56% this week and is -46.93% since its high on September 15.

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Oct 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tech Rebounds but Markets in Correction; The New Lexus Concept Car and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Tech Rebounds but Markets in Correction; The New Lexus Concept Car
  • Japan Weekly | Fujitsu, Nidec, Ibiden
  • China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-29-2023

Ohayo Japan | Tech Rebounds but Markets in Correction; The New Lexus Concept Car

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.5%, Nasdaq; +0.5%; Energy stocks weaker on poor results; US inflation still too high
  • Today: NKY Futs -1.3% v cash. JPY149.7; Weak results from Omron, Seiko, Sumi Chem
  • JapanX: Lexus’s LF-ZC concept car offers a 1,000 km range with advanced batteries, AI integration, and a commitment to luxury, signaling Toyota’s EV ambitions

Japan Weekly | Fujitsu, Nidec, Ibiden

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Japanese equities flat over the week. Core inflation exceeds inflation; pressure on BoJ to normalize policy
  • Major Movers: Fujitsu stock soared by 12% this week; earnings in line; margin improvement in core Japan service solutions business.
  • Activist Watch: Murakami & co has added another 1-pt to their holding in Ryosan (10.4%)

China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-29-2023

By Fern Wang

  • China Huijin’s purchase of China ETF, signaling further support to the stock market
  • China, in a rare move in the middle of the year, planned to increase its fiscal deficit to 3.8% and issue RMB1Trn to support local governments 
  • China’s move is expected to support growth in 4Q and 1H24 without further burdening the local government financing.

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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (27 Oct 2023): South Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (27 Oct 2023): South Korea, China Macro; Hon Hai, Foxconn, Naver, SMIC

GEMWeekly (27 Oct 2023): South Korea, China Macro; Hon Hai, Foxconn, Naver, SMIC

By Wium Malan, CFA

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