Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries
  • What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?
  • GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?
  • China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-15-2023

Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: U.S. equities declined on Friday due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, leading to higher oil prices and a flight to safety assets like bonds and gold.
  • Today: Lawson increases dividend due to strong domestic business. Daikin eyes European heat pump market. Mazda targets EV expansion in the US.
  • JapanX: Toyota and Idemitsu Partner to Revolutionize EVs with Solid-State Batteries

What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

By Eric Chen

  • The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.
  • That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.
  • They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.

GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The potential/market size of GLP-1 drugs is much greater-than-expected. Indication expansion could easily generate big returns. Investment strategy for GLP-1 drugs should be long-term, which is expected to bring alpha.
  • Supply-Demand relationship of entire market would change due to popularization of GLP-1 drugs.This is not only for healthcare, but also cause a change in the investment logic of other industries.
  • It’s recommended to re-examine stock positions in portfolio. Because each indication expansion of GLP-1 drugs would mean a decrease in demand in another field, leading to potential stock price plummet.

China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-15-2023

By Fern Wang

  • Country Garden default warning, Huijin’s Big 4 investments, Regulators reined in offshore new brokerage accounts, PBOC roles fine-tuned
  • China tightened rules on security lending to boost confidence of investors
  • September China Import/Export data continued to decline and Government bond issuance continued to support ASF growth

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Oct 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery

China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery

By Shawn Yang

  • 3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK: Douyin adds a more prominent entrance for its 1-hr delivery supermarket feature (-/-/-/-/+)
  • Kanzhun Limited: No signal for rebound in job market in China yet
  • 700 HK： QQ Browser today announced the launch of the “PDF Reading Assistant” , which uses Tencent’s own LLM Hunyuan to assist users.（/）

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Oct 14
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Lasertec and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: This week, the Topix Index gained 44pts (2%) to close at 2,309, influenced by Wall Street’s response to US inflation data and expectations of extended elevated interest rates.
  • Major Movers: Lasertec (6920) surged +17%, Fast Retailing (9983) rose +12%, and Monotaro (3064) declined -18%
  • Activist Watch: ValueAct lifted its stake in Topcon. I like the LT fundamentals for the company and look forward to positive dialogue with the activist

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Oct 13
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?
  • Ohayo Japan | US Consumer Prices Surprise Again; Toyota’s Lunar Cruiser Showcases Innovation
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023
  • China TMT Update-Oct.13-KE/FUTU/BABA- Beike Acquires “iKongjian”/Futu Japan MAU/Lazada Waived Fees

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

By Jim Handy

  • There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
  • Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
  • Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle

Ohayo Japan | US Consumer Prices Surprise Again; Toyota’s Lunar Cruiser Showcases Innovation

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.6% , Nasdaq -0.4%; Concerns again as bond yields rise on higher than expected consumer inflation
  • Today: NKY Futs v cash -0.7%, JPY149.8/$; Surprisingly strong outlook at Uniqlo; Toyota to work with Idemitsu on Solid State Batteries
  • JapanX: Toyota’s partnership with JAXA holds potential benefits for terrestrial challenges.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

China TMT Update-Oct.13-KE/FUTU/BABA- Beike Acquires “iKongjian”/Futu Japan MAU/Lazada Waived Fees

By Shawn Yang

  • KE Holdings Inc: Beike is going to acquire the home renovation company “iKongjian” on RMB1.55bn
  • Futu Holdings: Futu Japan app’s MAU increase rapidly, then monetization pace is the key
  • BABA： Alibaba’s Lazada waived seller fees to take back merchants from TikTok Shop（+）

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Oct 12
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Higher Again Ahead of Inflation Data; Why TSMC Chose Japan as a Place to Invest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Higher Again Ahead of Inflation Data; Why TSMC Chose Japan as a Place to Invest
  • China TMT Update Oct.12-Pdd/Baba/4385jp/BABA/LI/NIO/XPEV-TikTok Shop US/Taobao Management Change
  • [Blue Lotus Internet Sector Update]: Increasing Marginalization of Middle-Sized Companies
  • CHina TMT Update Oct.12-Pt.2-BABA/BILI/U:：Taobao Upgrades Membership/Bilibili Aims to Double DAU

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Higher Again Ahead of Inflation Data; Why TSMC Chose Japan as a Place to Invest

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.4% , Nasdaq +0.7%; Exxon Mobil to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $60b: Birkenstock slumps 12% on debut.
  • Today: NKY Futs v cash +0.3%. JPY 149/$; Surge in profits at ABC Mart and Bic Camera
  • JapanX: Why TSMC Chose Japan as a place to invest…it wasn’t just the subsidies

China TMT Update Oct.12-Pdd/Baba/4385jp/BABA/LI/NIO/XPEV-TikTok Shop US/Taobao Management Change

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD/BABA/4385JP：TikTok Shop US opened up, initial target categories in Mercari, ETSY and eBay（/）
  • BABA ：rumor says Taobao/Tmall looking to shuffle CEO（ / ）
  • LI/NIO/XPEV: AITO’s sales performance during the National Day holiday see good performance（-）

[Blue Lotus Internet Sector Update]: Increasing Marginalization of Middle-Sized Companies

By Shawn Yang

  • We view the recent cooperation between Alimama and Tencent a true change that both parties need to enter a new paradigm of business priorities in China Internet;
  • Middle-Sized social/video companies like Kuaishou and Bilibili have historically exploited the disconnect between Alibaba’s e-commerce merchandise shelf and Tencent’s advertising inventory. This opportunity is diminishing;
  • We raised Tencent’s TP by 4% to HK$417 while keeping Alibaba unchanged. We cut Kuaishou and Bilibili’s TP by 8% and 3% and maintain SELL.

CHina TMT Update Oct.12-Pt.2-BABA/BILI/U:：Taobao Upgrades Membership/Bilibili Aims to Double DAU

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA：Taobao upgrades its membership program in preparation for 11.11（ / ）
  • BILI: Bilibili Reiterates User Growth Goal: Doubling Mobile DAU( / ) 
  • U: Unity CEO Resigns After the Runtime Fees Incident ( + )

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Oct 11
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | SPX +0.5%; Pause in Rates; Son Tells Japan to Embrace AI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | SPX +0.5%; Pause in Rates; Son Tells Japan to Embrace AI
  • Samsung and SK Hynix China Factories Win U.S. Waivers

Ohayo Japan | SPX +0.5%; Pause in Rates; Son Tells Japan to Embrace AI

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERNIGHT: The S&P 500 rose for a third consecutive day, buoyed by Amazon’s Prime subscriber sale and a bullish forecast from PepsiCo.
  • TODAY: Mitsubishi Elec/Denso to invest $1b in Coherent’s SIC business; SONY PS Slim
  • JAPAN X: According to Masayoshi Son, AI is not the enemy but a friend and partner in propelling Japan forward.

Samsung and SK Hynix China Factories Win U.S. Waivers

By Caixin Global

  • The U.S. cleared Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. to supply U.S. chip equipment to their China factories without a separate approval process, South Korea’s presidential office said Monday.
  • The two South Korean companies received notification that the decision takes effect immediately, South Korea’s presidential economic adviser Choi Sang-mok told reporters Monday at a briefing, according to the Yonhap News Agency.
  • SK Hynix and Samsung both have major production operations in China, where imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) from the U.S. have been limited under sweeping restrictions rolled out by the Biden administration last October.

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Oct 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Stocks Ignore Conflict; Japan’s Used Car Sales to Russia Hit the Brakes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Stocks Ignore Conflict; Japan’s Used Car Sales to Russia Hit the Brakes
  • US – Fed Liquidity Moves USD147bn Lower In Past 3 Weeks, Pace Is Accelerating
  • Luxury Goods – What Makes a Brand Unique?
  • China TMT Update-Oct.10-Baba/LI/NIO/XPEV/Tencent/NetEase-Huawei Wenjie’s New M7/New Taobao Rules
  • Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 6, 2023

Ohayo Japan: Stocks Ignore Conflict; Japan’s Used Car Sales to Russia Hit the Brakes

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overnight: S&P gained 0.6% as market shook off initial concerns over conflict in Middle East. Bond market closed; Oil +4%
  • Japan: BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is looking to collaborate with Japanese businesses to invest in decarbonization technology.
  • JapanX: Japan has recently imposed strict restrictions on its used car sales to Russia, significantly impacting a thriving trade worth nearly $2 billion annually

US – Fed Liquidity Moves USD147bn Lower In Past 3 Weeks, Pace Is Accelerating

By Daniel Tabbush

  • US Federal Reserve Bank balance sheets are released weekly and more current than commercial banks. Latest Fed B/S is for 4 October, shows -USD47bn WoW in loans, securities, repos.
  • Liquidity conditions in the US banking system are becoming tighter faster, with the most recent week showing loans, securities, repos at -9.4% YoY vs -8.3% four weeks ago.
  • With tighter liquidity we should expect less loan growth, but also more difficult conditions for cash-strapped companies, prompting more defaults, and higher credit costs at banks.

Luxury Goods – What Makes a Brand Unique?

By Alexis Dwek

  • Why do certain brands like LV, Hermes and Cartier keep on delivering extraordinary results?
  • Which luxury brands will be able to continue to raise their prices well above inflation in the medium and long term?
  • If you don’t have a story for your brand, what is your brand worth?

China TMT Update-Oct.10-Baba/LI/NIO/XPEV/Tencent/NetEase-Huawei Wenjie’s New M7/New Taobao Rules

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA：SME merchants benefited from new Taobao rules ( + )
  • LI/NIO/XPEV: The cumulative large deposit order volume of Wenjie’s new M7 has exceeded 50,000 units(-)
  • Gaming Industry: August Market Sustains Ongoing Recovery with Impressive 46% YoY Growth in Domestic Market(+)

Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 6, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Global equities ended the week up modestly, with the MSCI World Index returning 0.07%. US indices fared worse, with the S&P 500 -0.48%, NASDAQ -0.59%, and Russell 2000 -1.56%. Most of the declines were due to a strong jobs report that sent interest rates higher, and stocks lower.

  • Cannabis stocks fell again this week with the US cannabis MSOS ETF falling 10.83% and the global YOLO ETF dropping 8.19%.

  • MSOS has now retraced more than 50% of the gains since the HHS announcement on August 30.

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Oct 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @7/10/23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @7/10/23
  • China’s Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind
  • US Banks – Cash +USD90bn in Week, CRE  -0.55% YoY, C&I +0.36% YoY, Book Value Growth Dwindles 3 Wks
  • October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel’s PSG Spin

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @7/10/23

By William Keating

  • TSMC reported revenues for September 2023 of ~NT$180.43 billion, a decrease of 4.4% MoM and a decrease of 13.4 % YoY.
  • Intel announces intent to spin out its Altera division, its latest endeavour to unlock greater shareholder value
  • Anthropic seeks yet further billions in funding after just closing an AWS deal worth up to $4 billion

China’s Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
  • Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
  • Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.

US Banks – Cash +USD90bn in Week, CRE  -0.55% YoY, C&I +0.36% YoY, Book Value Growth Dwindles 3 Wks

By Daniel Tabbush

  • US large banks’ new balance sheet data for 27 September show surging cash at +USD90bn in the week putting YoY growth highest all year, at 11.6%. This is risk aversion.
  • Commercial & Industrial lending, shows another subdued week, down USD1bn to 27 Sept WoW, and YoY growth at 0.36% compared with 12.5% early this year. Suggests a weak underlying economy.
  • CRE lending growth remains negative, and book value growth worsens in past 2 weeks, from +USD9.4bn to +USD4.0bn and now to +0.4bn WoW.

October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel’s PSG Spin

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Reuters reported on Monday that a new round of export controls just hit the Office of Management and Budget office.
  • That means it’s already been finalized by the Departments of State, Defense, Commerce, and Energy.
  • We are almost at the one-year anniversary of the October 7th export controls that tanked semiconductor stocks last year; this time, the stocks are looking way more sanguine.

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Oct 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai
  • China TMT Update(Oct.8)-TSLA/JD/ATAT/TCOM/3690.HK-JD.com Launches “Enjoy Now, Pay Later” Service

Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market: The broader Topix Index ended the week 59 points, or -2.6%,
  • Movers: Kusuri No Aoki Holdings shares rose sharply this week after the Japanese drugstore operator’s first-quarter profit climbed (+49% yoy)
  • Activist Watch: Dalton have also taken significant positions in Rinnai and Nitta

China TMT Update(Oct.8)-TSLA/JD/ATAT/TCOM/3690.HK-JD.com Launches “Enjoy Now, Pay Later” Service

By Shawn Yang

  • TSLA/JD：JD.com will launch Tesla car ordering service ( + )
  • JD：JD.com launches “Enjoy now, pay later” service, with high barriers and limited impact (/)
  • ATAT/TCOM: Highway traffic during national holiday will reach historicalhigh（ +）

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

By Victor Galliano

  • In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward, as well as the returns trends that can absorb potentially worsening cost of risk charges
  • China bank shares continue to be poor performers; yet we see selective contrarian buy opportunities, for those banks with deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheets including credit quality metrics
  • We stick with Industrial Bank and CCB as buys, adding Ping An Bank to the buys both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng remains our fundamental sell

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