Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oct 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Cloud Concerns; Cellulose Nanofibers for Sustainability and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Cloud Concerns; Cellulose Nanofibers for Sustainability
  • Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Ohayo Japan | Cloud Concerns; Cellulose Nanofibers for Sustainability

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.4%, Nasdaq -2.4%; Alphabet -9% on cloud miss; 10-y yield at 4.95%
  • Today: NKY Futs -1% v cash. JPY 150.3; IHI cuts numbers, Honda cancels EV venture with GM
  • JapanX: Yamaha Motor Company’s innovative use of Cellulose Nanofibers (CNF) in watercraft marks a ground breaking step towards sustainability and reduced carbon emissions

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

By Andrew Lu

  • Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers’ guidance.
  • Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.
  • We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months

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Oct 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Dow Closes 200 Points Higher; Wireless EV Charging Is the Future and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Dow Closes 200 Points Higher; Wireless EV Charging Is the Future
  • Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)
  • EM Semiconductors:  Positioning Deep Dive
  • US Banks – Mtg Loan Applications Index -15% from July | Mtg Loans 23% of Total | Growth Can Turn -Ve
  • Investment in Chinese Real Estate Dropped 9.1% in First Three Quarters

Ohayo Japan | Dow Closes 200 Points Higher; Wireless EV Charging Is the Future

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.7%, Nasdaq +1%; Alphabet drops 6% post market as cloud business missed expectations
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.6% v cash. JPY 149.9/$; Weak yen has unmistakable impact on profits; Dept. store sales +9% in Sept.
  • JapanX: Wireless EV charging is being tested in Kashiwa, offering convenience, reduced battery sizes, and environmental benefits, with plans for broader adoption

Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • TSMC results came in much better than feared. Revenue was slightly weaker than expected and below consensus. This quarter’s big story was margins driven primarily by FX changes.
  • Revenue was slightly below Taiwan Dollar (TWD) expectations, but margins were ahead of consensus. The big driver of this margin beat was FX, as the dollar weakened against the TWD.
  • The margin beat happened despite the 3nm ramp, a meaningful headwind. As N3 becomes a larger node, the headwind should increase, especially next quarter.

EM Semiconductors:  Positioning Deep Dive

By Steven Holden

  • Semiconductors are the 2nd largest industry allocation and the 6th largest overweight among EM active managers. However, the momentum witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled.
  • EM Growth funds remain overweight, but Value and GARP funds switch from an equal weight to an underweight.
  • TSMC is the dominant stock holding whilst SK Hynix and Mediatek occupy a 2nd tier. Alchip Technologies has captured inflows, whilst EM funds are closing LONGi Green Energy Technology exposure

US Banks – Mtg Loan Applications Index -15% from July | Mtg Loans 23% of Total | Growth Can Turn -Ve

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly mortgage loan applications index in the US is declining rapidly as is the weekly mortgage loan volume index. This gives a good forward view of growth.
  • Mortgage loans remain one of the most important segments for US banks at 23% of loans in the most recent week, so their decelerating growth is meaningful.
  • Given the high level of 30-year mortgage rates – not moving lower fast – decelerating mortgage loan growth should continue, and is likely to turn negative soon.

Investment in Chinese Real Estate Dropped 9.1% in First Three Quarters

By Caixin Global

  • Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger drop than in the first eight months of the year.
  • The decline means developers are spending less buying land and building housing. Construction starts measured by floor area fell 23.4% year-on-year, and total ongoing construction area dropped 7.1%, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
  • The declines reflect developers’ lack of confidence amid a prolonged crisis in the sector. Property sales by floor area decreased 7.5% in January-September from a year earlier, compared with a 7.1% contraction in the first eight months.

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Oct 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Nidec (6594) | Q2 Profits up 8% and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec (6594) | Q2 Profits up 8%
  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak; More FDI for Japan’s Chip Sector
  • Four Things to Know About Tightened U.S. Rules Over Chip Exports to China
  • US Large Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY
  • Escalation of Israel-Hamas War – Here’s How Investors Should Position Themselves in Dramatic Changes
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 20, 2023
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Weak Signals for Office Furniture
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended October 20, 2023

Nidec (6594) | Q2 Profits up 8%

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec released its financial results for the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up 0.7% and OP up 7.6% yoy
  • We view the results as neutral for the share price 
  • The thesis for Nidec remains intact – the structural shift from oil to electricity is a key driver across all segments

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak; More FDI for Japan’s Chip Sector

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.2% , Nasdaq +0.3%; Tech stocks moved higher after bond yields retreated from highs. Several big tech companies to report this week
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.1% v cash. JPY 149.7/$; Nidec’s results were OK, but not great – ADR down -5%
  • JapanX: Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor’s investment in Japan, supported by government subsidies, aims to revive Japan’s semiconductor industry and diversify the global supply chain

Four Things to Know About Tightened U.S. Rules Over Chip Exports to China

By Caixin Global

  • The U.S. on Tuesday announced an updated set of export controls over more cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor and chip manufacturing equipment, a move aimed at closing loopholes in existing rules and further blocking China’s access to American technology.
  • The controls focus on three main areas: adjusting the parameters that identify a restricted chip, expanding the list of controlled semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and adding more Chinese firms to the “entity list”, the U.S. blacklist of restricted organizations, according to a press release by the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS).
  • The BIS said the updated rules are intended to maintain the effectiveness of the controls and prevent workaround efforts based on loopholes in the rules introduced last October.

US Large Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly balance sheets give a view of underlying credit conditions in the US and they are not positive. Lending growth continues to decelerate and could reach negative growth soon.
  • Cash balances are rising and this suggests that US large banks are not comfortable with risk and also seeing less opportunities. Cash/loans ratio rising fastest in most recent week.
  • Large time deposits cost the most, and their growth rate is now 109% YoY in the most recent week, rising more than loans in each of the past 3 weeks.

Escalation of Israel-Hamas War – Here’s How Investors Should Position Themselves in Dramatic Changes

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The Israel-Hamas war could be presented “in a new way” or in a way that people cannot understand,which could get out-of-control since the US cannot stand idly by this time.
  • The timing of the Israel-Hamas war coincided with the turning point of Sino-US game as well as the turning point of global economic downturn – Global depression may erupt next year.
  • Crisis is a danger for the weak, but an opportunity for the strong and a gift for the prepared.We listed key points to help investors understand the logic/prepare in advance.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 20, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Global equities continued their decline this week, with the MSCI World Index falling 2.51% and the S&P dropping 2.39%.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.25%, while the NASDAQ was hit hardest at -3.16% over the last five sessions.
  • Concerns around higher interest rates and geopolitical tension led to the losses. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Weak Signals for Office Furniture

By Water Tower Research

  • The office furniture group fell 6% last week, breaking a streak of outperformance, as indicators pointed to weakness.
  • The office furniture group is up ~21% in 2023 and 32% over the past 12 months.
  • The Architectural Billings Index (ABI), a diffusion index and key leading indicator of non-residential construction activity (9-12 months), fell to 44.8 in September from 48.1 in August (AIA). 

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended October 20, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index fell by 5.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.9%).
  • Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was down by 7.9%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (49.5% of the index) was down 3.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.2%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 8.6%.
  • Top 10 Performers: NXH, NMG, WWR, NGPHF, ELBM, VIHD, MGPHF, GRB, TGEN, VGAS

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate
  • China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-22-2023

Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.3% , Nasdaq -1.5%; Broad-based equity decline with all sectors in the red as concerns over Israel-Hamas conflict grew; airline stocks under pressure
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.8% v cash. JPY 149.9; Core inflation at 13-month low; Signs that the property market overheating. Daiichi Sankyo big payday for cancer drugs
  • JapanX: Japanese companies boost P/B ratios by selling non-core real estate assets, transforming corporate governance and efficiency in response to the TSE’s call for improved performance

China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-22-2023

By Fern Wang

  • China had its one-belt-one-road summit held in Beijing this week and this year marked the 10-year anniversary of the initiative
  • China’s 3Q GDP is better than expected. Central bank has put outsized liquidity in the market while keep interest rate unchanged.
  • Big banks are helping to resolve local government debt issues, extending the term and reducing the interest rate the existing bank loans and also replaced others with bank loans.

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Oct 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai, Topcon, Kureha

Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai, Topcon, Kureha

By Mark Chadwick

  • Topix fell 2.3% due to Wall Street losses as Jerome Powell cited high inflation, and global stocks were pressured by surging bond yields.
  • Major Movers: Small-cap, high growth stocks got killed, especially on any slight earnings miss. Consumer staples, regional banks outperformed
  • Activist Watch: Investors lifting stakes in Rinnai (-3.4%), Topcon (+1.6%) and Kureha (+1%); Yaizu Suisan’s outcome remains uncertain after a failed tender offer

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Oct 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Rate Fears; Phase-Out of F-Gases for Heat Pumps Negative for Daikin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Rate Fears; Phase-Out of F-Gases for Heat Pumps Negative for Daikin
  • Indonesia Election 2024: The Conundrum
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 13-19 October 2023

Ohayo Japan | Rate Fears; Phase-Out of F-Gases for Heat Pumps Negative for Daikin

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.8% , Nasdaq -0.8%; Fed Chair still concerned about inflation; jobs data shows ongoing econ strength; Tesla -9%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.5% v cash. JPY 149.8/$; Calbee to test biogas production; Disco expects weakness in demand to continue; Softbank to build data center in Hokkaido
  • JapanX: The accelerated phase-out of F-gases, though aiming to make heat pumps cleaner, may hinder the shift from fossil fuels. Daikin and the industry face challenges and need swift adaptation.

Indonesia Election 2024: The Conundrum

By Henry Soediarko

  • The Indonesian election will take place on February 14, 2024, and registration for president and vice president candidacies has opened starting today.
  • PDIP has nominated Ganjar and Mahfud, while Nasdem has nominated Anies and Muhaimin Iskandar, the deputy speaker of the People’s Representative Council of Indonesia.
  • It now depends on who Prabowo, the current defense minister and two-time presidential candidate, will run with. 

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 13-19 October 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Sink; Hitachi Role in Clean Power Revolution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Sink; Hitachi Role in Clean Power Revolution
  • China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023
  • October Restrictions Implications

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Sink; Hitachi Role in Clean Power Revolution

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.3%, Nasdaq -1.6%; Tensions in Middle East; higher oil prices; 10Y bond at highest rate since 2006
  • Today: NKY Futs -1.2% v cash. JPY 149.9/$; Inbound fully recovered; Socionext to work with TSMC
  • JapanX: Hitachi Energy has supplied HVDC systems in the World’s largest wind farm; company well placed to benefit from energy transition

China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • Today’s NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
  • It’s in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
  • But the main caveat persists – the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales

October Restrictions Implications

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 

  • For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.

  • I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.

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Oct 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | More US Tech Restrictions on China; Nidec & The Future of Urban Air Mobility and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | More US Tech Restrictions on China; Nidec & The Future of Urban Air Mobility
  • Japan’s Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There’s Profit in It
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended October 13, 2023

Ohayo Japan | More US Tech Restrictions on China; Nidec & The Future of Urban Air Mobility

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX flat , Nasdaq -0.3%; Treasury yields resumed rise on stronger-than-expected retail sales
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.3% v cash. JPY 249.8; Keisei Electric Rail attracts activist interest; SONY/Honda unveil new EV
  • JapanX: Nidec Powering the Future of Urban Air Mobility; perhaps a new growth driver to think about

Japan’s Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There’s Profit in It

By Michael Causton

  • While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. 
  • But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.
  • This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended October 13, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index fell by 1.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.1%).
  • Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was up by 1.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.4% of the index) was down 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 1.7%.
  • Revolve Renewable Power is an owner, operator, and developer of renewable energy projects focused on the North American market.

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Oct 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23
  • Ohayo Japan | Index Finishes Higher, Led by Tech; Honda/MitCorp Vision for Clean Energy
  • Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency
  • Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Gray Skies over High Point; Cloudy Conditions for Industry
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23

By William Keating

  • Samsung’s pre-earnings release indicates revenue increased 11.6% QoQ and operating profit has increased almost 4x QoQ.
  • According to Garner, Q323 PC unit shipments rose 7.7% QoQ. While this is the second such quarter of sequential growth, shipments in the third quarter were still down 9% YoY
  • ASPEED’s monthly revenue grew 32% sequentially in September. After 8 months of flat to no growth, this marks a clear turn around in the server market. 

Ohayo Japan | Index Finishes Higher, Led by Tech; Honda/MitCorp Vision for Clean Energy

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +1%, Nasdaq +1%; Stock rally was broad-based; energy lagged on lower oil price.
  • Today: NKY Futs +1% vs cash. JPY 149.5; MHI demonstration plant for CO2 liquification; Uniqlo raises salaries in China
  • JapanX: Beyond the Road: Honda and Mitsubishi’s Vision for Clean Energy

Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

By Michael Causton

  • The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.
  • Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.
  • For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the current AI infrastructure build?
  • It’s time for a history piece. I didn’t touch the internet and telecom bubbles in my last history piece, but I wanted to save an entire piece for it.
  • I think it’s the best analogy for the historic boom in AI and infrastructure. Let’s see if there are lessons to learn from the past.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Gray Skies over High Point; Cloudy Conditions for Industry

By Water Tower Research

  • The Fall Furniture Market in High Point, N.C. brought the industry together last week to do business, celebrate successes, and commiserate.

  • We spent the day Saturday, the official opening day, while buyers and vendors had been there since the prior Tuesday.

  • The sky over High Point was gray and wet. So was the mood.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, the MSCI World Index gained 0.36%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.94%.

  • The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&P 500 is +12.83, and NASDAQ is +28.10%.

  • This is surprising, as small caps typically lead off a bear market bottom. However, during this cycle, large tech is leading the way.

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Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries
  • What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?
  • GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?
  • China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-15-2023

Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: U.S. equities declined on Friday due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, leading to higher oil prices and a flight to safety assets like bonds and gold.
  • Today: Lawson increases dividend due to strong domestic business. Daikin eyes European heat pump market. Mazda targets EV expansion in the US.
  • JapanX: Toyota and Idemitsu Partner to Revolutionize EVs with Solid-State Batteries

What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

By Eric Chen

  • The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.
  • That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.
  • They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.

GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The potential/market size of GLP-1 drugs is much greater-than-expected. Indication expansion could easily generate big returns. Investment strategy for GLP-1 drugs should be long-term, which is expected to bring alpha.
  • Supply-Demand relationship of entire market would change due to popularization of GLP-1 drugs.This is not only for healthcare, but also cause a change in the investment logic of other industries.
  • It’s recommended to re-examine stock positions in portfolio. Because each indication expansion of GLP-1 drugs would mean a decrease in demand in another field, leading to potential stock price plummet.

China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-15-2023

By Fern Wang

  • Country Garden default warning, Huijin’s Big 4 investments, Regulators reined in offshore new brokerage accounts, PBOC roles fine-tuned
  • China tightened rules on security lending to boost confidence of investors
  • September China Import/Export data continued to decline and Government bond issuance continued to support ASF growth

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