Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Overseas: SPX 1.9%, Nasdaq +2.4%; Core CPI lower than expected, slowest rate in two years; 10Y below 4.5%
Today: NKY Futs +1.6% v cash. JPY 150.4; M3 to buy Benefit One; Cosmo Energy rejects Murakami’s shareholder return demands
JapanX: As the automotive industry transforms and the role of software becomes increasingly important, Toyota to consolidate its software development under one roof

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/LI/NIO/1211.HK/BGNE

XPEV/LI/NIO: Auto Media company conduct ADS crash test with results favoring Huawei over XPeng
LI/XPEV/NIO/1211.HKNew energy vehicle sales growth accelerated in October 2023 (+)
BGNE: Gilead’s purported success in TIGIT in Gastric Cancer means little to BeiGene(/)

Five Trends to Watch in 2024

Geopolitical tension could continue contributing to instability in global energy markets.
A regional expansion of the conflict between Israel and Hamas could affect global energy security and put upward pressure on crude oil prices.
Uncertainty overhangs a generally healthy global supply/demand balance in the oil markets.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended November 10, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 2.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.8%).
Energy Technology (12.2% of the index) was down by 12.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.4% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was down 8.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 3.8%.
Top 10 Performers: PGTK, BLDE, XOS, REE, CECE, LBNK, FL, INVZ, FE, BLNK

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Nov 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | All Quiet Ahead of CPI; NTT Data’s Mobility Platform and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | All Quiet Ahead of CPI; NTT Data’s Mobility Platform
The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies
China’s China Weight Loss Drug Market Update – the Negatives and the True Colors
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Looking Ahead: What We Expect in 2024
Japan’s Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward
2024 Trends for Direct Sellers – Looking for an Inflection Point
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 10, 2023

Ohayo Japan | All Quiet Ahead of CPI; NTT Data’s Mobility Platform

Overseas: SPX -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.3%; Traders waiting for upcoming inflation data; Tesla +4%
Today: NKY Futs +0.6% v cash. JPY 151.7; Japan inflation cooling; machine tool orders -21%
JapanX: Empowering Tomorrow’s Connectivity: NTT Data Pioneering Innovation in the EV Revolution

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

By Mohshin Aziz

We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar
Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities
Stocks that exhibits deep value are US Global Jets ETF (JETS US), Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)

China’s China Weight Loss Drug Market Update – the Negatives and the True Colors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

While we’re optimistic about weight loss drug business, we also need to recognize the “true colors” of relevant companies, which helps us realize “when to participate and when to exit”.
We analyzed the negatives/”flaws” of popular companies that favored by capital: BrightGene Bio-Medical Technol (688166 CH), Hybio Pharmaceutical (300199 CH), Hainan Poly Pharm (300630 CH), Sinopep-Allsino, Kawin Technology, Highfine Biotech,etc.
Short-Term stock price rally are mainly driven by sentiment, but future valuation still needs to be supported by performance and fundamentals. Some companies are just conceptual hype in our view.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Looking Ahead: What We Expect in 2024

Following a spate of earnings last week and major retailer earnings ahead, we pause here to reflect on where the furniture and furnishings sectors—residential and commercial/contract— are now and a peek at their likely tracks in the early 2024.
Where are we in broad strokes? Residential: Following demand surges fueled by a once-in-a-lifetime focus by consumers on their homes during the pandemic, residential furniture and furnishings demand slumped as the focus shifted to “experiences” from goods.
Commercial: New demand (orders) didn’t enjoy the surge (though backlog deliveries fueled reported sales).

Japan’s Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

By Michael Causton

Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.
2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.
While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.

2024 Trends for Direct Sellers – Looking for an Inflection Point

This year marks the fifth year in the most current downcycle for the stocks we monitor in the direct selling channel, with the brief exception of the pandemic-related benefits they reaped in 2H20 and 1H21, as a result of their product focus on health and wellness as well as their direct-to-consumer business models during the widespread lockdowns.
Even those benefits have been mostly given back in 2022 and 2023 as consumers moved from spending on goods for the home and body to services and experiences as mobility returned to the global marketplace
Below are the five key trends we are looking for to drive this group in 2024.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 10, 2023

Cannabis stocks had an excellent week, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF surging 11.39% and the global YOLO ETF ending +4.07%. YTD, MSOS is -6.29% and YOLO is -21.94%, indicating that US cannabis has been outperforming Canadian and other global names.
The week started with BAT (LSE: BATS, NYSE: BTI) making a C$124.6 million investment into Canadian operator Organigram (TSX: OGI, OTCQX: OGI).
Most of the capital is to create Jupiter, a strategic investment pool designed to expand Organigram’s footprint and capitalize on strategic growth opportunities.

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Nov 13

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Resilient; NTT Invests in AV Start-Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Markets Resilient; NTT Invests in AV Start-Up
Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 13/11/23

Ohayo Japan | Markets Resilient; NTT Invests in AV Start-Up

Overseas: SPX +1.6%, Nasdaq +2.2%; All sectors positive as big tech gains
Today: NKY Futs +1% v cash. JPY 151.5; Shiseido sees weakness in China; TSMC Oct. sales +15%
JapanX: NTT and Toyota invest in May Mobility, an AV star-tup, signalling a global push for advanced autonomous driving technology and strategic partnerships.

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 13/11/23

By William Keating

TSMC Reported October revenues of NT$243.20 billion, an increase of 34.8% QoQ and an increase of 15.7% YoY.
According to IDC, worldwide smartphone shipments amounted to 302.8 million units in Q323, still down 0.1% YoY, but up ~14.1% sequentially.
Silicon wafer area shipments for Q323 amounted to 3,010 MSI, down 19.5% YoY & down 10% QoQ. Why are wafer shipments declining when key end markets are in recovery mode?

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Nov 12

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): Indonesia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): Indonesia, China, Philippines Macro; South Korea Markets, Ant, Baidu
[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE
[Blue Lotus Daily]: CPNG/BABA/PDD:Coupang Sacrifices Profitability for Growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)

GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): Indonesia, China, Philippines Macro; South Korea Markets, Ant, Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: Indonesia and Philippine GDP growth, China trade and inflation, South Korea short selling ban.
Companies mentioned this week:Ant Group (6688 HK), Baidu (9888 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)
LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)
ZLAB: ZLAB’s Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&D compressed profits

[Blue Lotus Daily]: CPNG/BABA/PDD:Coupang Sacrifices Profitability for Growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)

By Ying Pan

CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)
On November 8th, 2023 Coupang reported 3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and net income 4%, (39%), and (23%) vs. consensus estimates.
Revenue beat mainly driven by Korea business with growth of the platform significantly outpacing peers.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Trend Micro and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Trend Micro, Screen, Mazda, Itochu-Techno
[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/JD/PDD/BILI/Tencent/700.HK/Kuaishou/1024.HK/DOYU/HUYA/ACMR
Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024
Shroom Shmooz – Psychedelics and the Hype Cycle – Where Does It Go in 2024 and Beyond?

Japan Weekly | Trend Micro, Screen, Mazda, Itochu-Techno

Market Watch: Topix Index gained 0.6% WoW, influenced by Treasury yields and interest rate discussions, while individual stock movements were largely impacted by earnings reports
Major Movers: Trend Micro surged 19.6% on strong Q3 results and a ¥140 billion total shareholder return plan. Screen and Mazda rose 15% and 13.5%, driven by positive profit outlooks
Activist Watch: Oasis Management surprises with a 6.42% stake in Itochu Techno Solutions despite Itochu’s TOB completion & Share consolidation announcement. Oasis likely to contest valuation in Court.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/JD/PDD/BILI/Tencent/700.HK/Kuaishou/1024.HK/DOYU/HUYA/ACMR

BABA/JD/PDD: Post Bureau publishes Parcel Volume Data for Double 11 Festival (-/+)
BILI/700.HK/1024.HK/DOYU/HUYA: Douyu CEO Chen Shaojie missing for 3 Weeks (+/+/+/-/+)
4689JP/PDD: LY C3Q23 result beat consensus on LINE advertising (/)

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

By Andrew Lu

Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;
More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.
Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.

Shroom Shmooz – Psychedelics and the Hype Cycle – Where Does It Go in 2024 and Beyond?

Psychedelic stocks continue their bad trip despite the psychedelic renaissance.
The headlines flowing out of the psychedelics sector over the past year indicate that the psychedelic renaissance appears to be gaining momentum.
Clinical trials at various stages involving psychedelic substances, led by MDMA, psilocybin, ketamine, and DMT, have produced results showing clinical promise in a number of treatment- resistant mental health disorders.

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Nov 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE
[Blue Lotus Daily]BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE
Ohayo Japan | Powell’s Concerns; Semiconductor Resurgence Through Strategic Subsidies
Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part II)
Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM…)
[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 2-9, 2023

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE

By Ying Pan

BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/1519.HK/: Express parcel volume grew +20% YoY during first week of 11.11 Shopping (+)
BEKE: Property Update – Mild recovery for existing home sales in October and 1st week of November
XPEV: Xpeng, Huawei dispute over Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) (-)

[Blue Lotus Daily]BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE

BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/1519.HK/: Express parcel volume grew +20% YoY during first week of 11.11 Shopping (+)
BEKE: Property Update – Mild recovery for existing home sales in October and 1st week of November
XPEV: Xpeng, Huawei dispute over Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) (-)

Ohayo Japan | Powell’s Concerns; Semiconductor Resurgence Through Strategic Subsidies

Overseas: SPX -0.8%, Nasdaq -0.8%; All S&P sectors in the red; Walt Disney shares jumped 6.9% on a quarterly profit beat
Today: NKY Futs -0.4% v cash. JPY0151.4; BoJ preps market for higher rates. INCJ to sell shares in Renesas
JapanX: Japan’s semiconductor revival accelerates with $13.2 billion subsidies, global partnerships, and cutting-edge research, signaling a bold move to regain global dominance in chip production.

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part II)

By Alexis Dwek

Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM…)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.
Reminder: in a first-in-first-out (FIFO) framework, the first into the inventory correction were PCs and Smartphones.
Then, networking and data center, and we are now seeing Industrial start their inventory correction cycle. I don’t think this is the last we will hear about this.

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.
Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.
We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 2-9, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Nov 09

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Losing Steam; Canon’s Nanoimprint to Disrupt Semiconductor Manufacturing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Losing Steam; Canon’s Nanoimprint to Disrupt Semiconductor Manufacturing
[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$18) Target Price Change]: Does Xiaopeng Need Xiaomi to Survive?
With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q
Cannabis Catalysts – Five Factors That May Drive Change in 2024

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Losing Steam; Canon’s Nanoimprint to Disrupt Semiconductor Manufacturing

Overseas: SPX +0.1% , Nasdaq +0.1%; Stocks losing steam; WeWork goes bust; Roblox +12%, Upstart -27%, Toast -14%
Today: NKY Futs +0.5% v cash. JPY 151; New Nintendo movie; Mizuho increases stake in Rakuten Secs; Fuji Soft Group Reorganization
JapanX | Canon’s Nanoimprint Technology to challenge ASML Dominance and Potentially Disrupt Semiconductor Manufacturing

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$18) Target Price Change]: Does Xiaopeng Need Xiaomi to Survive?

The rapid ascending Huawei EV ecosystem is threatening everyone except BYD and Tesla. XPEV is the next in line after NIO;
We do view Xiaomi as offering an alternative to Huawei to present a unified IOT user experience. But now is too early to judge Xiaomi’s success and XPEV’s role;
We cut the TP from US$24.3 to US$18 and maintain BUY.

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

By Andrew Lu

Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).
The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management.
We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.

Cannabis Catalysts – Five Factors That May Drive Change in 2024

Cannabis is a state-led growth story with a series of hard-to-time political catalysts.
Slower-than expected state rollouts and a drought of political progress have contributed to the US cannabis MSOS ETF falling more than 90% since its peak on February 10, 2021.
Valuations are compressed and there are a series of potential new states and political catalysts ahead.

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Nov 08

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak Continues; A Beneficiary of EV Battery Testing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak Continues; A Beneficiary of EV Battery Testing
Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended November 3, 2023

Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak Continues; A Beneficiary of EV Battery Testing

Overseas: SPX +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.9%; Lower Treasury yields boosted mega-cap tech stocks. Datadog +28% on earnings beat
Today: NKY Futs +0.6% v cash. JPY 150.4/$; Real wages remain weak; Yen record low vs Asian currencies
JapanX | A Small Cap Powering the EV Revolution with Environmental Test Chambers

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended November 3, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 5.8% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 5.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 7.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 6.5%).
Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was up by 10.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.7% of the index) was up 5.5%, ClimateTech Mining was down 1.3%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 5.2%.
Top 10 Performers: LILM, HLGN, LICY, PEV, ARVL, FHYD, GMGMF, HASI, TMC, GCEI

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Nov 07

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Stocks, Yields, Oil Higher; SiC Chip Technology for Automotive Evolution
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Furniture Back in Focus After Strong HNI Quarter

Ohayo Japan | Stocks, Yields, Oil Higher; SiC Chip Technology for Automotive Evolution

Overseas: SPX +0.2% , Nasdaq +0.3%; Subdued start to the week after recent gains; Yields higher with 10Y at 4.65%
Today: NKY Futs -0.3% v cash. JPY 150/$; Ueda sees increasing chance of hitting 2% inflation goal
JapanX: Denso & Mitsubishi Elec Investing in SiC Chip Technology for Automotive Evolution

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Furniture Back in Focus After Strong HNI Quarter

The commercial/contract (office) furniture stocks rallied last week following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report.
The commercial/contract furniture issues rose more than 12.7%, outperforming the broad indexes, with HNI leading the group.
HNI’s 3Q report reinforced the sector story. Sales remain challenging. Improved pricing, a focus on costs, and eliminating unprofitable distractions restored margins.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | The Bulls Are Back; Toyota Navigating the EV Transition and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | The Bulls Are Back; Toyota Navigating the EV Transition
Interpretation of China’s Central Financial Work Conference – the Big Changes and the Outlook

Ohayo Japan | The Bulls Are Back; Toyota Navigating the EV Transition