Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Nov 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Singles’ Day: Chinese Consumers Are Trading Down Instead of Buying Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Singles’ Day: Chinese Consumers Are Trading Down Instead of Buying Up
  • Japan Weekly | All About Yen; Panasonic, Cyberagent
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/Cotti Coffe/XPEV/BIDU/NIO/LI/JKS/DIDI/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH
  • China Drafts List of Developers Eligible for Funding, Asks Banks to Boost Real Estate Lending

Singles’ Day: Chinese Consumers Are Trading Down Instead of Buying Up

By Amrutha Raj

  • Singles’ Day sales are more than four times the USD 35.3 billion that U.S. shoppers clocked during Cyber Week (from Black Friday to Cyber Monday).
  • Global consumer names such as Apple, Nike, Lululemon, L’Oreal, and P&G have a large presence on Chinese e-commerce platforms.
  • JD.com reported last year that Apple sold more than RMB 1 billion worth of products in the first minute of the event’s final sales period.

Japan Weekly | All About Yen; Panasonic, Cyberagent

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Topix ended the week unchanged. The yen was the bigger story after strengthening to Y147/$. Forex likely to dominate next week
  • Major Movers: CyberAgent was boosted by the release of a new #1 smartphone game; Panasonic gains after announcing potential restructuring of group assets
  • Activist Watch: Dalton’s Nippon Active Value fund has found a deep value, small-cap pharma company. Rheos Capital takes a significant stake in a fast-growing M&A advisor

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/Cotti Coffe/XPEV/BIDU/NIO/LI/JKS/DIDI/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH

By Eric Wen

  • LKNCY: Cotti Coffee pans to expand into tea drinks business(+)
  • BIDU/DIDI/XPEV: MIIT and 4 other departments to carry out intelligent car access network(+)
  • LI/NIO/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS: China Export Data in October shows PV and wind power decline accelerating(+/+/+/-/-/-/-)

China Drafts List of Developers Eligible for Funding, Asks Banks to Boost Real Estate Lending

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese regulators are pressing banks to step up lending and ease financing for developers as part of efforts to boost the ailing property sector.
  • At a meeting with China’s most important financial institutions last Friday, regulators brought up three new requirements for banks’ real estate loans to developers and homebuyers, people from several state-owned large banks attending the meeting told Caixin.
  • The banks were told to keep their real estate loan growth at a level no lower than the banking sector’s average real estate loan growth, loan growth to non-state-owned developers no lower than each bank’s real estate loan growth, and mortgage growth to individuals buying housing from non-state-owned developers no lower than each bank’s mortgage growth, the people said.

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Nov 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 17-23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 17-23, 2023

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 17-23, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Nov 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Aircraft Leasing 101 – Heralding the Golden Era and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Aircraft Leasing 101 – Heralding the Golden Era
  • What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?
  • HBM’s Impact on DRAM Revenues

Aircraft Leasing 101 – Heralding the Golden Era

By Mohshin Aziz

  • This report explains the nuts and bolts of the aircraft leasing industry in a simple manner, along with its opportunities, risks, and business outlook.  
  • We are in a golden era, underpinned by strong global traffic recovery, and supply shortage due to technical and manufacturer snafus. Airlines are also increasingly struggling to access credit. 
  • AerCap Holdings NV (AER US) is our top pick on its superior business profile and attractive valuation, the second choice is BOC Aviation (2588 HK). 

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

By Andrew Lu

  • SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.
  • WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.
  • We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.

HBM’s Impact on DRAM Revenues

By Jim Handy

  • HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed
  • This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage
  • Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins

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Nov 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | All Eyes on Nvidia; Xiaomi’s EV Entry Disrupts Auto Makers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | All Eyes on Nvidia; Xiaomi’s EV Entry Disrupts Auto Makers

Ohayo Japan | All Eyes on Nvidia; Xiaomi’s EV Entry Disrupts Auto Makers

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX , Nasdaq; Nvidia beats estimates, sees Q4 revenue hitting $20B, but China sales to decline significantly. Stock -1% in extended hours
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.5% v cash. JPY 148.4; TSMC thinking about building a third semicon plant in Japan
  • JapanX: Xiaomi disrupts auto industry, debuting SU7 EV to challenge Tesla, signaling a formidable entry into electric vehicle competition.

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Nov 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Microsoft Hits All-Time High; Mitsubishi Elec Partners on SiC Chips and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Microsoft Hits All-Time High; Mitsubishi Elec Partners on SiC Chips
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:  BEKE/XPEV/LI/BYD/CATL
  • Q323 Memory Segment Review, Outlook
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE
  • Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 17, 2023
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Falling Rates Lift All Stocks

Ohayo Japan | Microsoft Hits All-Time High; Mitsubishi Elec Partners on SiC Chips

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.1%; Microsoft +2% after OpenAi drama; Nvidia +2%
  • Today: NKY Futs 0% v cash. JPY 148.4/$; Nikkei Hits 33-Year High Amid Foreign Investment Surge
  • JapanX: Mitsubishi Electric and Nexperia partner for SiC power semiconductors; SiC tech fuels global green transformation.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:  BEKE/XPEV/LI/BYD/CATL

By Eric Wen

  • BEKE: New Home Sales still lukewarm in October and early November (/)
  • XPEV, LI, BYD, CATL: SK On and LGES cut staff amid US EV slowdowns, positive for Chinese EV & battery
  • XPEV: Huawei AITO M5 rear-end accident took place on November 14 raises safety concerns(+)

Q323 Memory Segment Review, Outlook

By William Keating

  • Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.
  • In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.
  • All memory players remain loss making. We don’t anticipate a return to black until Q224.

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/JD: Social Retail Consumption data improved in October MoM (+)
  • 700.HK: Tencent raises ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming Studio (+)
  • SE/ PDD/ BABA: Highlights of Sea Limited’s  disappointing Q3 results(-)

Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 17, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Cannabis stocks had another good week, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF gaining 5.50% and the global YOLO increasing 2.49%.
  • As the potential DEA news inches closer, US cannabis stocks continue to outperform Canadian counterparts. MTD, MSOS is +22.86%, while YOLO is +10.34%.
  • Ayr Wellness (CSE: AYR, OTCQX: AYRWF) was +27.29% and led the way for the larger operators. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Falling Rates Lift All Stocks

By Water Tower Research

  • Last week, we considered our outlook for furniture and furnishings. Today, we look at current indicators.
  • Economic fundamentals largely deteriorated over the past two weeks, but the stocks surged as interest rates eased.
  • Existing home sales dipped to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 million in September, the first reading below 4 million since 2010, shortly after the Great Recession. 

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Nov 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Mixed Messages; JAL Invests in Sustainable Flight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Mixed Messages; JAL Invests in Sustainable Flight
  • Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook
  • Chinese Airports at Inflection Point, Low Risk and High Visibility Growth Sector

Ohayo Japan | Mixed Messages; JAL Invests in Sustainable Flight

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX (+0.1%), Nasdaq (+0.1%); Third consecutive week of gains; Mixed messaging out of Fed; AMAT under investigation for China export violations
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.2% v cash. JPY 149.6/$; Berkshire sells yen bonds; Panasonic in talks to sell an auto parts biz; Itochu to buy Bigmotor?
  • JapanX: ZeroAvia partners with Japan Airlines to develop hydrogen-electric engines, bringing sustainable flight closer. JAL commits to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050

Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of the top 5 WFE players amounted to $22.7 billion, up 2.6% QoQ, but down 9.5% YoY
  • On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the previously anticipated 20% decline. 
  • Both ASML and TEL are forecasting 2024 revenues roughly flat YoY. We think the same will apply to the broader WFE segment. 

Chinese Airports at Inflection Point, Low Risk and High Visibility Growth Sector

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Chinese airports have turnaround with Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai airports reported 9M23 profits. The others (Beijing, Shenzhen, Hainan) are still lossmaking, but should turnaround soon   
  • The upcoming Winter/Spring schedule reveals international capacity at 70% of 2019’s level, a catalyst for strong earnings growth, as international flights generate >2.5x higher revenues   
  • Xiamen International Air A (600897 CH) exhibits the best value; Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) is the most appealing due to its size and liquidity 

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Nov 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (17 Nov 2023): China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (17 Nov 2023): China, Malaysia Macro; Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent
  • US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets, Negative C&I Growth, Nearly First Time This Year, Other Negatives

GEMWeekly (17 Nov 2023): China, Malaysia Macro; Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Chinese industrial production and retail sales, Malaysia GDP growth.
  • Companies mentioned:Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Tencent (700 HK)

US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets, Negative C&I Growth, Nearly First Time This Year, Other Negatives

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There was one week of data where large US banks showed -0.1% YoY growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) but the most recent week is -1.0% so more solidly negative.
  • Cash balances continue to show YoY growth at double digit, now at 18.4% suggesting limited demand, and still banks having risk-aversion.
  • Jumbo time deposit growth remains extraordinary at 118% YoY in most recent week, and this money is more expensive than other time deposits.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025
  • Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth
  • Japan Weekly | CPI Drives Yields Lower, Stocks Higher. New Activist Positions

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

By Andrew Lu

  • Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
  • More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies’ share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
  • Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026.

Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth

By Caixin Global

  • China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just how high, as they rolled out discount-heavy strategies to encourage reluctant consumers to spend.

  • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. had offered a slew of discounts to attract shoppers as the recovery in household consumption in the world’s second largest economy slowly gained momentum in recent months.

  • Alibaba said that both gross merchandise value (GMV) and order amount on Taobao and Tmall from Oct. 24 to Nov. 11 rose from the same period last year.

Japan Weekly | CPI Drives Yields Lower, Stocks Higher. New Activist Positions

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: U.S. CPI disappointment led to a sharp yield drop, boosting growth stocks; Nikkei rose for a third week, Topix up 26% YTD; Expect lower volatility next week
  • Major Movers: Benesse (+33%) on MBO, Benefit One (+28%) on sale to M3, Ebara (+17%) & Horiba (+15%) on positive results. Speculation that Tsuruha (+13%) is open to offers
  • Activist Watch: Dalton and Strategic Capital start new positions in Iwaki Pumps and Teraoka Seisakusho respectively

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Nov 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit
  • Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part III)
  • [Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK
  • Chinese Airlines: Well Placed for a Reversal
  • [Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 10-16, 2023

Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.1% , Nasdaq +0.1%; Relatively stable day. Walmart stock -8% on cautious outlook, Burberry -9% on weak luxury spend
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY 150.8/$; Japan to scrap quarterly reporting? Asahi Group Share Offering
  • ValueAct’s investment into Recruit highlights continued opportunities and value in the Japanese market

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part III)

By Alexis Dwek

  • Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
  • However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
  • Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)
  • BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)
  • On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.

Chinese Airlines: Well Placed for a Reversal

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The Chinese airlines are best placed to ride on lower US interest rates and the induced weakening of USD given heavy USD debt, which amounts to 17.7% of the total.
  • A 1% drop in USD interest rates will save Rmb1.2bn, and this is more than the total profit they have generated in 9M23. FY24 will be a big swing year.
  • This is an overlooked sector as their share prices have dropped by an average of 21.8% YTD. However, profits turned around and revenue surged tremendously in the period. 

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

By Eric Wen

  • ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)
  • XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)
  • 981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 10-16, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Nov 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale
  • Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs
  • Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 – What’s Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.2%, Nasdaq 0%; Interest rates remain key driver; Target stock +18% on bte Q3 results
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.4% v cash. JPY 151.4; Bullish plans from Denso; Japan tourism fully recovered
  • JapanX: Expected further consolidation in the drug store sector looking more likely. The vultures are circling

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. 
  • I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.
  • We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.

Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 – What’s Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

By Water Tower Research

  • Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.
  • With an estimated market size of $137 billion in 2022, AI is projected to grow significantly to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of 38%.
  • We can expect to see more sophisticated AI applications and algorithms that can perform complex tasks and make decisions with human-like accuracy. 

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