Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• Nasdaq tumbled 2.6%, entering correction territory. Marvell sank nearly 19% on a disappointing AI outlook
• The yen strengthened against the dollar to the ¥147 level, reaching its strongest position in about five months.
• Oasis Management, a 5.23% stakeholder in Kao, is urging shareholders to support its proposal for the appointment of five foreign outside directors at Kao’s AGM in June

• DeepSeek’s (DS) low-cost, high-performance open-source model fundamentally altered the AI landscape, but server overload of DS’s chatbot caused poor user experience;
• Among many Internet platforms that integrated DS into their products, Tencent stood to benefit the most. Through DS, Tencent LLM climbed 3 spots to unseat ByteDance to become the No.1;
• What Tencent has done right including preprocessing, answer caching and building dedicated nodes. Now Manus is catching the imagination of AI monetization, Tencent can possible benefit more.

• The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
• Core C&I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
• Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR

• Huge gains for JP names with EU exposure yesterday looks set to continue as markets rotate out of AI plays.
• Sanken Electric went limit up on the news of ON Semi’s bid for Allegro, although ALGM trading very wide overnight.
• EU mania should be enough to reboot Daikin’s heat pump catalyst off stone sold levels.

• Adani Group plans to raise $12.5B over five years to fund $57.16B capex, focusing on power, utilities, and green energy.
• Paint sector demand sees mild recovery as competition intensifies, with Asian Paints countering Birla Opus’ expansion through aggressive dealer incentives.
• RBI orders large NBFCs to halt new credit lines and renewals, citing concerns over disguised borrower stress and repayment transparency.

• A 60% tariff on Chinese imports will significantly disrupt supply chains, forcing companies to either absorb costs or shift production to alternative but less efficient markets.
• Higher import duties on electronics, machinery, and consumer goods will increase manufacturing costs, leading to price hikes and reduced competitiveness for American businesses in global markets.
• Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico will directly impact U.S. exports, affecting key industries like agriculture, automotive, and technology while escalating trade tensions globally.

• Interview with Vuslat, who runs a mining investment company in South Africa
• South Africa is rich in commodities like PGMs, Chrome, Manganese, Coal, and Iron Ore
• South Africa offers rule of law, democracy, and security of tenure, making it an attractive investment destination for mining companies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The Indian two-wheeler industry experienced subdued performance in February 2025, with listed companies reporting modest domestic sales figures. Exports were the only bright spot.
• This insight provides a detailed analysis of sales performance of key players- Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN),Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) , TVS Motor (TVSL IN) and Eicher Motors (EIM IN).
• Although companies have indicated an improvement in the domestic market following the festival of Holi, it remains to be seen how the demand scenario unfolds.

• US stocks surged after President Trump granted a one-month auto tariff exemption for Mexico and Canada
• Automakers Ford, GM, and Stellantis soared at least 5% on the news.
• Trial Holdings will acquire Seiyu, a general supermarket, from KKR and Walmart for ¥383 billion

• Semi cap names higher with Trump not mentioning export restrictions on his speech to Congress.
• Disco -7% yesterday despite no news could see dip buying as oversold SPE gets bought.
• Names such as Daikin and Shimano may also catch a bid on the German spending news.

• Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) achieved a strong TCV of $10.2 billion, driven by significant large deal wins across diverse markets and industries, instills confidence for future financial years.
• HCL Technologies (HCLT IN) is Witnessing strong growth in Technology and Financial Services due to increased spending patterns, along with a sizable number of deals influenced by AI and GenAI.
• Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) expects significant growth in AI spending and is committed to driving innovation for clients by leveraging the transformative power of AI, with discretionary spending slowly returning.

• Encore Energy experienced a significant drop in share price, down 46%, following a production miss and management change
• The company had to use purchased uranium to fulfill contract obligations, leading to inventory challenges and production struggles
• The appointment of a lawyer as acting CEO raised concerns among investors and highlighted the importance of strong leadership in the uranium industry.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
• Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
• If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

• Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market
• Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case
• Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts

• Total public EV charging stations (incl. temporary unavailable locations) were 77,142 as of February 28, 2025. Compared to the end of FY24, it is an increase of 2.9%.
• Total EV charging ports (including the temporary unavailable ports) were 213,068, up nearly 3.1% compared to the end of 2024 and up 1.0% over January 2025.
• US considerably lags behind China which had 3.76 million public charging stations at the end of January 2025.

• UK energy policy has changed of late, following the election of a Labour government last summer.
• The quest for Net Zero by 2030 – a hardly realistic target – is now a priority.
• Rightly or wrongly, the issues of security of supply, electricity prices and generation investment have all been superseded by this overarching aim.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to a four-month low after fresh U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect
• The Trump administration’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China will significantly impact the automobile industry
• UNIQLO domestic same-store sales, including e-commerce, rose 12.2% year-on-year in February, driven by strong sales of winter clothing

• SEBI’s new Specialized Investment Funds (SIF) bridge the gap between mutual funds and PMS, offering sophisticated investors greater flexibility and advanced strategies.
• Launching April 1, 2025, SIFs grant access to complex derivatives and alternative investments, demanding careful review due to their high-risk nature.
• With a minimum investment of ₹10 lakh, SIFs offer dynamic portfolio allocation across equity, debt, and hybrid strategies, enhancing diversification and risk-adjusted returns.

• Reliance Industries (RIL IN) faces a $2.81 billion demand in a gas dispute, plans to challenge Delhi High Court ruling in Supreme Court.
• Haldiram’s stake sale faces delays as market downturn prompts Blackstone (BX US) to exit, citing high valuations; Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP) interest continues.
• SEBI’s new open interest rules may impact BSE’s trading volumes, prompting Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) to cut its target price to Rs. 4,880.

• TSMC higher on news from the day before it is investing heavily in US fab capacity.
• Continental AG -11.6% after earnings miss sets a poor tone for JP tire makers Bridgestone, Toyo, Yokohama and Sumitomo.
• All eyes on Trumps speech to congress this morning, although markets should be firm off the open.

• The Indian commercial vehicle industry witnessed a subdued performance in February 2025, with listed companies reporting modest sales figures.
• This insight provides detailed analysis of sales performance of key players-Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN),Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN),Ashok Leyland (AL IN),Eicher Motors (EIM IN)& Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN).
• Industry reports and management insights indicate that the commercial vehicle market is expected to remain largely stable in FY2025, with hopes for positive growth in FY2026.

• February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.
• Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.
• Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.

• The sell-off accelerated in the final hour after President Trump confirmed tariffs against Canada and Mexico would take effect Tuesday; Nvidia’s stock fell 8.7%
• TSMC will invest an additional $100 billion in the US, bringing its total investment to $165 billion, to build three new chip manufacturing facilities
• Seven & i Holdings will appoint Stephen Hayes Dacus as president, replacing Ryuichi Isaka. 

• NVDA, SMCI and Dell investigated by Singaporean authorities over chip leaks into China.
• Allegro +15% in the US following on from Sanken limit-up yesterday as ON circles.
• IHI, MHI, KHI, NEC all higher yesterday but should follow EU defense peers much higher.

• A weak rupee is proving to be a major concern for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), triggering $20.2 billion in outflows from Indian equities and bonds since October 2024
• The INR has depreciated 2.7% against the US dollar, a trend that has historically coincided with sharp FII exits.
• This vicious cycle of rupee weakness → FII selling → more rupee weakness is something we have seen before.

• Balancing act. As the ag industry is preparing for the planting season, an early look at 2025 expectations by Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor offers a mixed bag.
• On one hand, after a two-year decline, net and cash farm income are expected to increase Y/Y in 2025.
• On the other hand, the increase will be mostly due to an increase in government payments. 

• Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) plans to scale businesses across hospitality, aerospace, and renewables, prioritizing operational excellence over acquisitions for sustainable long-term growth.
• Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) lays off 1,000+ employees as losses surge 50%, competition intensifies, and market share declines, leading to a 60% stock plunge.
• India’s Q3 GDP growth hits 6.2%, boosted by Maha Kumbh spending, tax cuts, and strong exports, despite market volatility and fiscal challenges.

• Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | bol sells Cycloon to owner of Intrapost Last Friday, Intrapost, Cycloon and Ahold Delahaize’s online platform bol announced that postal company Cycloon to will be bought by Den Hollander Holding B.V, a holding company with the same controlling shareholder as Intrapost: Mr. V.R. Den Hollander. bol and Cycloon are convinced that this is the best step for all parties with a view to the future.
• Cycloon focuses on sorting and delivering letterbox mail.
• The sales of these activities to Den Hollander Holding B.V, will bring Cycloon in a better position to benefit from the opportunities on the postal market and to continue to grow.

• More troubling signs for vaccines emerged last week, as next month’s annual VRBPAC meeting was canceled and RFK Jr. shrugged off latest measles outbreak.
• The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) selects the flu strains for the fall vaccines, six months in advance to allow for manufacturing.
• One unvaccinated child died from the Texas measles outbreak and ~20 were others hospitalized, as RFK Jr. called the outbreak not unusual, even though measles was eradicated in the US in 2000. 

• Continued policy uncertainty, the federal budget, the Ukraine war, and tariffs were all front and center for the markets this past week.
• The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 0.5% and the Home Goods Retailers Index fell 1.8%, while the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index gained 1.3%.
• The large-cap indexes fell 0.5% and the R2K declined 0.7%.

• U.S. stocks bounced back after brief declines triggered by failed Trump-Zelensky negotiations. The S&P closed up 1.6%
• Aeon will acquire the remaining shares of its listed subsidiaries Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight, addressing investor concerns about parent-subsidiary listings
• Recruit Holdings will buy back up to ¥450bn of its shares; Daiichi Sankyo will buy back up to ¥50bn of its shares, or 0.9% of total issued shares

• Our “Buy the Worst” strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. 
• More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), and even Hang Lung Properties (101 HK). 
• Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect Meituan (3690 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK). 

• China’s petrochemical companies should speed up their overseas expansions, with a focus on building up capacity to withstand fierce domestic competition and rising trade barriers, an industry group leader said.
• “Internationalization has become a strategic choice for China’s petrochemical industry as it confronts global trade tensions and supply chain restructuring,” Fu Xiangsheng, vice chairman of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said at a press conference last week.
• Fu explained that escalating geopolitical tensions, coupled with major powers’ efforts to “decouple” from China are threatening global supply chain security.

• US broke the Tech rout on Friday while the Trump/Zelensky spat points to higher EU defense spending.
• ON Semi is reported to be making a play for Allegro signalling a potential liquidity event for Sanken.
• JP SPE was heavily sold on Fri so expect a sharp rebound to start.

• India’s E-2W market witnessed a major shakeup in Feb-2025.Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)‘s sales nosedived,causing the company to fall from the No. 1 position in January to No. 4 in February.
• Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) led the market with 21,335 units, followed by TVS Motor (TVSL IN) at 18,743 units and Ather Energy (1207922D IN) at 11,788 units.
• Market continues to be highly competitive,with top three players vying for leadership. Increasing consumer adoption,new product launches, and potential IPOs from key companies indicate dynamic year ahead for E-2W industry.

• DeepSeek’s (DS) own traffic declined as rivals launching white-label DS service but DS published research paper showing unmatched profit margin of 85%;
• JD’s take out initiative update: We think JD is serious but its effort will be in vain. We think JD.com knows it too.
• Shopee and Lazada colluded to raise commission in SE Asia, benefiting both with no loss of market share.

• This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
• We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
• We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources

• Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. 
• LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;
• MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. 

• EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended three new medicines for approval and adopted positive opinion for one generic medicine at its February 2025 meeting. 
• The committee recommended extending the therapeutic indications of 16 existing medicines, including two cystic fibrosis medicines, KAFTRIO and KALYDECO and oncology drugs CALQUENCE, DARZALEX, ENHERTU, and RINVOQ . 
• The CHMP concluded that its opinion recommending a marketing authorization for Eisai’s Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi does not need to be updated.

• Celltrion has received European Commission approval for Avtozma (CT-P47), a biosimilar referencing Actemra. Samsung Biologics and Biocon launched their respective Stelara biosimilars in the U.S.
• KKR is acquiring up to 54% of equity in Healthcare Global Enterprises for INR445/share. The transaction is expected to close by 3Q25. The acquisition triggers an open offer from KKR.
• Zydus Lifesciences is ready to launch India’s first vaccine against new strain of influenza virus (Southern Hemisphere 2025) in the 2025. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has launched Epinephrine Injection in the U.S.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
• Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?
• The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk

• Q425 revenues were a record $39.3 billion, up 78% YoY,  up 12% QoQ, handily beating the guided midpoint of $37.5 billion. It was NVIDIA’s eight consecutive quarter of sequential growth.
• After taking an overnight break to consider its options, the markets then positively vomited on NVIDIA, sending its share price down 8.5% on Thursday
• Jensen presents a utopian, Lake Wobegon-esque vision of all pervasive AI but in reality the pace of AI adoption will ultimately be determined by the pace of AI revenue generation

• There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China’s banks through a government capital injection
• This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
• Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs

• Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) is considering a majority stake sale in its shadow-banking unit, Axis Finance, valued at $900 million-$1 billion.
• India plans a $1 billion subsidy to boost domestic solar wafer and ingot production, reducing reliance on China.
• PAG, backed by Blackstone (BX US) , is exploring the sale of its 54% stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN) Management for $1.2 billion.

• Japanese markets experienced significant pressure this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.2% and the Topix declining 2%
• The week was dominated by escalating global trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump announced multiple tariff initiatives.
• Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, particularly chip and AI-related companies including Disco (-19%), Tokyo Electron (-12%), and Advantest (-15%).

• That department stores in city centres did well in 2024 won’t be a surprise to anyone given the support from inbound tourists buying luxury goods on a cheap Yen.
• But that the sector overall managed to exceed 2019 sales is an achievement given the ongoing contraction in the regions.
• The gap is widening further between the best and the rest but the top firms look set to continue increasing profits as they work to add value to existing buildings.

• AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d – Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well.
• As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days.
• Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seismic data, five additional well candidates with similar geologic characteristics have been identified.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8%, and the Dow declined 0.4% as tech stocks sold off following Nvidia’s earnings report
• Nvidia’s Q4 revenue jumps on strong demand for AI chips, but gross margin guidance disappoints due to pricing pressure.
• Seven & i’s founding family has abandoned its buyout plan due to inability to secure financing, with shares falling 11.7% to 2,118 yen

• NVDA started the day in the green but was sold aggressively off the open pulling everything lower.
• Dell rebounded in later trading after strong numbers in a bright spot for sentiment.
• Advantest taking a minority stake in Micronics a big positive and todays weakness may be the chance to buy.

• ASM intends to declare a regular dividend of EUR 3.00 per share [FY23 EUR 2.75 per share].
• Besides the company authorized a new repurchase program of up to EUR 150m within the 2025/26 timeframe.
• ASM expects revenue in the range of EUR 810m to EUR 850m for 25Q1 [24Q1 EUR 639.0m], with a projected further increase in 25Q2 compared to 25Q1 [24Q2 EUR 706.1m]. 

• Microsoft dominated the technology news cycle recently on the back of a report by a TD Cowen analyst that the company is cancelling data centre leases in the US
• Dwarkesh Patel’s podcast with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella last week provided a fascinating insight into his thinking when it comes to AI compute build out, AI winners & losers etc.
• Mr Nadella’s approach to AI compute build out has always been a pragmatic “show me the money and I’ll build some more compute” approach. Now we better understand why.

• The Nasdaq gained 0.3% after rising as much as 1%, while the S&P 500 finished flat
• Nvidia reported Q4 revenue of ¥39 billion, exceeding expectations of ¥38 billion
• Itochu has declined to participate in Seven & i Holdings’ planned buyout by its founding family

• The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
• Singapore’s banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
• We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China

• Despite the chip market’s 19% overall 2024 Y/Y increase, the only real growth was in semiconductors for AI applications.  A turn in the AI business could cause a collapse.
• Outside of AI, growth was significantly more modest at 4.8%, which is good compared to the industry’s historical growth rate of 3.9%, but is nowhere near the 19% overall number.
• The US’ trade sanctions appear to be having some impact on chip shipments to China vs. the Americas, but this may be an illusion.

• Tech rebound into NVDA print, which came in slightly ahead of estimates. Server related up on SMCI gains.
• Expect this to be enough to spark dip buying for Japan SPE plays such as TEL, Disco, as well as likes of Fujikura and MHI.
• Hoya has bottomed in the last 2-days and looks primed for more upside after excessive weakness.

• Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals (CHMB IN)’s Capacity expansion in IMACID, focusing on phosphoric acid production, Technical Ammonium Nitrate (TAN) project, and entry into biologicals.
• Coromandel International (CRIN IN) is also expanding  capacity that include a 7.5 lakh tons of NPK facility and a 2 lakh tons phosphoric acid plant at Kakinada. 
• Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) Capacity expansions for technical ammonium nitrate (TAN) and nitric acid. Investments in a world-scale ammonia plant, and shift to specialty products.

• A down week for furniture and furnishings stocks amid a broader small-cap pullback against a background of increased policy uncertainty.
• The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 4%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 2.3%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index fell 10.1%, while the broader market indexes declined 1.7% and the R2K fell 3.6%.
• The administration’s plans to target Chinese shipbuilding could increase costs for importers.

• Vaccine makers (PFE, MRNA, BNTX, NVAX) had an up-and- down week, as the HHS postponed the CDC’s first scheduled ACIP (vaccine experts panel) meeting of the year.
• Deeper concerns came with reports of RFK Jr.’s plans to overhaul the committee (Politico), possibly replacing members with vaccine skeptics.
• Ending the group’s week was a new bat coronavirus identified in China with transmission potential to humans. 

• Tata Play and Airtel Digital TV are merging, with Airtel taking majority stake, to consolidate DTH, broadband, and telecom services.
• Indian IT sector set for 5.1% growth in FY25, with $300 billion target by FY26, adding 126,000 jobs.
• HCL Technologies (HCLT IN) CEO C Vijayakumar highlights that GenAI disrupts IT’s traditional model, pushing for productivity and specialized skills over headcount.

• US stocks closed mixed Tuesday as renewed tariff threats and potential China curbs pressured sentiment.
• The Nasdaq fell 1.3%, dragged by Nvidia (-2.8%) and Tesla (-8.4%)
• Toyota Motor will transition to a company with an Audit and Supervisory Committee, strengthening its corporate governance

• Wild ride for Kokusai Electric yesterday on US/China announcement, although the squeeze should continue.
• SMCI +25% in after market trading enough to finally get Nidec up?
• Yields down, Homebuilders up, but Tesla hammered after Musk’s clumsy foray into EU/UK politics.

• Given the sharp decline in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.
• Following our mid-month insider-buying report from last week, number of buying transactions has increased further. 
• This is Part-4 of the series, providing an update on insider-buying activity from just last week.

• Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
• Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
• If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

• Bain Capital Specialty Finan (BCSF US) finalizes $1 billion deal to acquire a controlling stake in Manappuram Finance, India’s second-largest gold loan provider.  
• India’s GCC sector sees rapid growth, with 24 centres crossing $1 billion in export revenue, contributing $43.6 billion.  
• India bans production and export of drugs containing Tapentadol and Carisoprodol, citing unapproved combinations and regulatory concerns.