Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Oasis Loads Up on ACSL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Oasis Loads Up on ACSL
  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 43
  • Industry Report – Climatetech & Sustainable Investing
  • Mid-Cap Discretionary Retail Analysis -Screening for Best Recovery Plays

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Oasis Loads Up on ACSL

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.5%, Nasdaq -1%; Mkt awaits Friday jobs report; Alaska Air to buy Hawaiian Air; Carvana up 20%; Spotify +5%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.5% v cash. JPY 147.2; Japanese companies urgently seeking to improve capital allocation on TSE disclosure change
  • JapanX: Oasis acquired a 10.47% stake in ACSL, a Tokyo-based drone maker

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 43

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 104% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 21%

Industry Report – Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 0.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.8%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.1%).
  • Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up by 11.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (49.8% of the index) was up 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 4.2%.
  • Top 10 Performers: HTOO, FLNC, HLGN, PLUG, REX, OPTT, STEM, RUN, MVST, AMRS

Mid-Cap Discretionary Retail Analysis -Screening for Best Recovery Plays

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • We have applied some screens to 15 ASX-listed retail stocks to determine which potentially present the best returns.
  • As a retail analyst in a former life, I have learnt two things about consumers: buyer fatigue and pent-up demand.
  • We saw online buyer fatigue post-Covid and we are arguably in a period that will lead to pent-up demand following the tightening of consumer belts in the current cost-of-living/interest rate environment.

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Dec 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve
  • WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.3%; Illumina +7%, Microsoft -1%, Intel -2%
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.1% v cash. JPY/$146; Kewpie and Ezaki Glico raising prices; Appier helping Nexon
  • JapanX: Komatsu Expands Construction Software Arsenal with iVolve Acquisition for Fleet Management Services

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

By William Keating

  • 9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us
  • Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side
  • Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!

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Dec 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday
  • GEMWeekly (1 Dec 2023): China, South Korea, India Macro; ByteDance, NIO, Geely, Alibaba
  • What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?
  • Auctus on Friday – 24/11/2023

US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday

By Amrutha Raj

  • Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year. Cyber Monday comes second. This year BFCM set a record of USD 38 billion across 200+ million shoppers.
  • Buy Now, Pay Later drove USD 940m in online spending on Cyber Monday, up a staggering 42.5% YoY. Online Sales via smartphone set a fresh record of 59%.  
  • In a year, where good news for the main street is unwelcome news for the wall street, record shattering holiday shopping numbers comes amid a buoyant stock market.

GEMWeekly (1 Dec 2023): China, South Korea, India Macro; ByteDance, NIO, Geely, Alibaba

By Wium Malan, CFA

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

By Andrew Lu

  • After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors’ capex cut not consistent with Nvidia’s robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
  • Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
  • Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.

Auctus on Friday – 24/11/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU)C ; target price of A$0.80 per share: Equity raise to fund increased WI in Anshof – ADX is raising A$4.2 mm of new equity plus up to A$1 mm through an offer to shareholders at a price of A$0.10 per share.
  • Subscribers will also receive half a warrant with an exercise price of A$0.16 per share.
  • The capital injection will provide funding for ADX’s increased interest in Anshof (from 50-60%) following the decision of Xstate Resources not to participate in the upcoming programme as well as funding for the Welchau-1 gas well (50% funded by MCF Energy) which ADX expects to spud in January 2024 after an anticipated environmental clearance.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK
  • Japan Weekly | Stocks up 5% in November
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA LI/Geely/ACMR/ MU/NVDA/981.HK/1810.HK/000660.KS

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK

By Ying Pan

  • PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK: Express Delivery Parcel Volume grows +48% YoY last week (+)
  • BABA/ MELI/ AMZN/ CPNG: AliExpress to introduce live streaming service abroad(+/-/-/-)
  • 700.HK: Tencent’s “Fight of the Golden Spatula” reach high highs with latest season content update (+)

Japan Weekly | Stocks up 5% in November

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Japanese stocks remain in a tight range. Topix ended the week -0.4% lower, capped by a stronger yen. However, Topix finished November +5%
  • Major Movers: Taisho Pharma +57% on MBO plans; Shiseido -9% as sell-side cuts numbers
  • Activist Watch: No new positions. Strategic Capital builds position in Toa Road; 3D drinks up more Sapporo shares

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA LI/Geely/ACMR/ MU/NVDA/981.HK/1810.HK/000660.KS

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA: Luxeed S7 officially launched, price lowered by RMB 8,200 (-)
  • NIO: Geely and NIO enter into strategic cooperation agreement for battery swapping (+)
  • ACMR/ MU/ NVDA/ 981.HK/ 1810.HK/ 000660.KS: CXMT launches first domestic LPDDR5 RAM (+/+/+/-/-/-)

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi
  • Ohayo Japan | Dow up 500 Points; EV Reliability Realities
  • Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart
  • Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part IV)
  • Restaurant & Retail Roundup – Takeaways from RFDC

Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

By Rikki Malik

  • Headwinds are turning to tailwinds for the Japanese Trading companies.
  • Risks rising in the short term due to JPY strength, weakening commodity prices and the upcoming US recession.
  • Massive outperformance over the last two years, most recently due to multiple expansion

Ohayo Japan | Dow up 500 Points; EV Reliability Realities

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.4%, Nasdaq -0.2%; Dow ends November with 9% gain; Salesforce shares up 9% on strong Q3 earnings
  • Today: NKY Futs+0.2% v cash. JPY 146.2; Japan’s ranking in digital competitiveness slumps; 7&I buys Aussie franchise for $1bn
  • JapanX: Japanese autos remain the most reliable – EVs far less reliable than conventional cars

Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

By Michael Causton

  • The big 3 convenience stores in Japan control 90% of the sector and share will climb as they mop up some of the remaining chains and collaborate with the rest.
  • Seven Eleven is by far the best performer of the three but both Lawson and Familymart are innovating to create quite different retail operations.
  • All are seeing the benefits of digitisation of store and supply chain operations, which should enhance profitability, enhanced by new services and revenue streams like retail media.

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part IV)

By Alexis Dwek

  • Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
  • However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
  • Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

Restaurant & Retail Roundup – Takeaways from RFDC

By Water Tower Research

  • Our monthly WTR restaurant and retail report focuses on stock performance, short interest, an outlook for restaurant commodity costs, our casual dining same-store sales (SSS) and traffic survey, and takeaways from the Restaurant Finance & Development Conference (RFDC) that occurred in mid-November.
  • Retailers outperform and restaurants underperform indexes on a MTD basis. For November 2023, the performance reversed, with retailers outperforming the restaurants by a wide margin.
  • On a month-to-date (MTD) basis, our equal-weighted index of restaurant stocks increased 6.2% following a decline of 4.2% in October, but below the S&P 500, which increased 8.6%. 

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | GM Higher on $10bn Buyback; Honda Boosts Bet on Electric Bikes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | GM Higher on $10bn Buyback; Honda Boosts Bet on Electric Bikes
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update] PDD: PDD Begins Hiring Staff to Train LLM for Temu Customer Service
  • Japan’s Convenience Stores Still Growing, Still Innovating

Ohayo Japan | GM Higher on $10bn Buyback; Honda Boosts Bet on Electric Bikes

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%; Mixed signals from the Fed; CrowdStrike +10%, GM +9%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY/$ 147.3; Toyota to sell shares in Denso; Japan announces extra budget to offset inflation
  • JapanX: Honda Charges Ahead with its investment in electric motorcycles

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update] PDD: PDD Begins Hiring Staff to Train LLM for Temu Customer Service

By Ying Pan

  • On November 22nd, 2023 local Chinese media reported that Pinduoduo began hiring researchers/engineers for its large language model (LLM) on its recruitment website and other staffing channels.
  • According to reports, PDD is in the process of hiring researchers to build its new LLM tool to make AI functionality available for customer service on Temu.
  • Reminder that Temu is responsible for handling post sales services under a “fully managed” business model, which is currently out-sourced to a customer service center.

Japan’s Convenience Stores Still Growing, Still Innovating

By Michael Causton

  • Convenience stores remain Japan’s largest sector. 2020 was the first and, so far, only year in the format’s 50-year history when sales declined, but performance has since bounced back.
  • Still dominated by three of the largest retail chains in the country, it remains one of the most dynamic and forward thinking retailing and marketing sectors
  • The latest initiatives look set to deliver more growth in sales as well as potentially delivering a huge new revenue stream in the form of retail media.

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Nov 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Edges Higher; Toyota to Sell Stake in Denso and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Edges Higher; Toyota to Sell Stake in Denso
  • The Magnificent 7 Are No Reason to Exit Stocks!
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU/1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH/ATAT/BEKE
  • EMEA Financials: Uneven Recovery

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Edges Higher; Toyota to Sell Stake in Denso

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.3%; Shein to list in US next year
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.3% v cash. JPY/$ 147.5; Toyota to sell Denso shares; New Asics MTP
  • JapanX: Toyota: Selling Denso Stake to Fuel Ambitious EV Expansion

The Magnificent 7 Are No Reason to Exit Stocks!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Even though the endless outperformance of the Magnificent 7 means the Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index is underperforming massively, this is not a reason to sell stocks.
  • One to six months after the historically largest outperformances of the S&P 500 Index, more impressive returns tend to follow.
  • It’s only when the S&P 500 Index has lagged the Equal Weighted Index that shorting stocks would have been lucrative.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU/1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH/ATAT/BEKE

By Eric Wen

  • TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU: Tesla FSD expected to launch in the Chinese market
  • 1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH: Japanese auto makers cut prices in Thailand to fend off Chinese EV
  • XPEV/NIO/BIDU/BYD: BYD cut vehicle prices again to boost year-end sales

EMEA Financials: Uneven Recovery

By Steven Holden

  • EMEA Financials are the largest Regional Sector underweight in global EM, with just 11.6% of managers positioned ahead of the MSCI EM index.
  • Moderate but uneven recovery underway, with buying in Greece, Saudi, Kuwait and Poland Financials.
  • Despite being the sector’s predominant country holding, South African Financials are experiencing a halt in growth; nonetheless, FirstRand and Standard Bank continue to be key holdings.

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Nov 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Muted Mood; TSMC Placing Its Chips on Japan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Muted Mood; TSMC Placing Its Chips on Japan
  • China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries – Why and The (Possible) Impact
  • Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – A Glance at Big-Box Retailers Shows Mixed Top Line
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 24, 2023
  • Water Tower Hour Recap – KEY POINTS The State of the Restaurant Industry
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended November 24, 2023

Ohayo Japan | Muted Mood; TSMC Placing Its Chips on Japan

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%; Consumer stocks outperformed after record breaking Black Friday sales; US Home Sales impacted by 8% mortgage rates.
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.3% v cash. JPY/$ 148.6; Kagome raising food prices; Yahoo data breach; ASICS to double retail presence in India
  • JapanX: TSMC is betting big on Japan. The Taiwanese chip maker is reportedly contemplating the establishment of a third chip manufacturing plant in Japan.

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries – Why and The (Possible) Impact

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices 
  • Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right 
  • Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia

Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

By William Keating

  • Global semiconductor sales have increased MoM  for seven months in a row. PC & Smartphone unit shipments have bottomed and are on the rise. Memory has bottomed.
  • Silicon wafer inventories are piled high, ASML, TEL facing down zero growth in 2024, foundry utilisations are (mostly) in the doldrums with further ASP cuts looming on the horizon. 
  • Multiple data points suggest we’ll still be talking about this downturn well into 2024

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – A Glance at Big-Box Retailers Shows Mixed Top Line

By Water Tower Research

  • During the past two weeks, key big-box retailers reported the quarter ended in October, providing near real-time views into the state of the consumer and retailing.
  • Top-line results were mixed.
  • Our Read: Consumer spending continues to retreat from the pandemic bubble, with consumers moving down market to low-price and bargain retailers.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 24, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • It was a holiday-shortened week for US stocks, and this will be a briefer edition of The Highlights.
  • The US cannabis MSOS ended the week -2.32%, while the global YOLO ETF was +2.43%.
  • Volumes were light, especially on Friday, when Ascend’s (CSE: AAWH, OTCQX: AAWH) US listing traded just $11,553 in volume.

Water Tower Hour Recap – KEY POINTS The State of the Restaurant Industry

By Water Tower Research

  • On the latest edition of The Water Tower Hour, WTR’s Head of Business Development Tim Regan interviewed WTR’s Head of Consumer Discretionary Lynne Collier to discuss the state of the restaurant industry, her outlook for 2024, and key takeaways from the Restaurant Finance and Development Conference (RFDC) in Las Vegas on November 13-15.
  • Key takeaways from RFDC. The tone of the conference was more upbeat than last year given the expectation of better cash flows in 2024.
  • Thus far in 4Q, restaurants are seeing better same-store sales (SSS) and traffic after the lull in September, creating more optimism for operators.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended November 24, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.9%).
  • Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was down by 1.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (49.4% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was down 1.9%, andAdvanced Transportation Solutions was up 1.3%.
  • Top 10 Performers: CLIR, NVLH, NXH, EFOI, IRBT, TMC, GCEI, PEV, PNPN, FTCI

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tech Earnings; Nissan’s Big UK Bet and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Tech Earnings; Nissan’s Big UK Bet
  • Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points

Ohayo Japan | Tech Earnings; Nissan’s Big UK Bet

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%; Expect a heavy weak of tech sector earnings: CRM, SNOW, CRWD. OPEC meeting next week a focus
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.3% v cash. JPY 149.4; Duty free shopping surges, good for dept stores, but changes to rules coming
  • JapanX: Nissan Sparks Electric Revolution with £2 Billion Investment in UK Manufacturing

Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points

By Mohshin Aziz

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Nov 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Education Sector YTD: Volatility in Public Equities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Education Sector YTD: Volatility in Public Equities, PE Stalking with Take Private Offers
  • Chinese Carmakers Ship More Workers Abroad for Expansion, White Paper Says
  • GEMWeekly (24 Nov 2023): Thailand, China, Indonesia Macro; TSMC, Baidu, Alibaba

Education Sector YTD: Volatility in Public Equities, PE Stalking with Take Private Offers

By Anik Siwach

  • EdTech Market Volatility: Docebo and Tribal Group report significant YTD gains of +27% and +32%, while Janison and LTG Group face steep declines of -59% and -45%.
  • AI Disruption and Adaptation: Chegg introduces a GPT-style assistant in response to AI challenges, while Duolingo excels with 83.1M monthly users, expanding beyond language tuition.
  • Shifts in Private Funding: Private EdTech funding declines in 2023, with strategic investors and family offices driving deals, amidst a broader reduction in venture capital investments.

Chinese Carmakers Ship More Workers Abroad for Expansion, White Paper Says

By Caixin Global

  • About 70% of more than 20 Chinese carmakers with a presence outside of China are expected to see an uptick in the number of employees sent to work overseas in 2023, reflecting their increased bet on international expansion as they face intensifying competition at home.
  • That’s an estimate from a white paper jointly published Monday by three subsidiaries of New York-based risk adviser Marsh McLennan.
  • It came against the backdrop of China having overtaken Japan as the world’s largest car exporter by volume earlier this year.

GEMWeekly (24 Nov 2023): Thailand, China, Indonesia Macro; TSMC, Baidu, Alibaba

By Wium Malan, CFA

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