Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | A Happy New Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | A Happy New Year
  • Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Japan Weekly | A Happy New Year

By Mark Chadwick

  • TOPIX rose by 1.15% over the past 5 trading days, which is an impressive performance given the negative news flow
  • Securities companies such as SBI (+7.7%), Daiwa (+7.1%) and Nomura (+6.3%) performed well on expectations that they would do well from the change in NISA regulations.
  • We highlight again the outperformance of value versus growth again over the past 5 days.

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  
  • The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   
  • These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)

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Jan 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 3
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY/1211 HK/XPEV/LI/NIO
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: NTES/3690 HK/Bytedance/PDD

China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 3

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Starting from November 1st 2023, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region will include some therapeutic assisted reproductive medical services in the payment scope of basic medical insurance and work-related injury insurance funds.
  • Livzon’s 23Q3 performance was below expectations, which is related to China’s anti-corruption campaign started from 23H2. Considering the Chairman’s proposal to repurchase shares, we should be more patient with Livzon.
  • BGI is still digesting the impact of COVID revenue, and would experience a performance low point in 2023.However, BGI belongs to the direction of national key science and technology projects.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY/1211 HK/XPEV/LI/NIO

By Eric Wen

  • LKNCY : Luckin Coffee offer special locations for franchisees (+)
  • XPEV: XPeng’s urban NOA function remains in the lead (+)
  • 1211 HK/XPEV/LI/NIO:  Huawei rumored to cease cooperation with major automotive portals such as Dongchedi (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: NTES/3690 HK/Bytedance/PDD

By Ying Pan

  • Bytedance/3690 HK: Douyin in-store GMV increased 256% YoY in 2023, miss target by 5% (+)
  • PDD: AliExpress to focus on expanding in the US market this year (-)
  • NTES: The latest developments about the reconciliation between NetEase and Blizzard (+)

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Jan 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 29 -Jan 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 29 -Jan 4, 2024
  • US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets Show Risk Aversion Remains, New PMI Data Continues to Be Weak
  • There’s Something About Air Cargo (Part II)
  • Shroom Shmooz – Spotlight on Ketamine

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 29 -Jan 4, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets Show Risk Aversion Remains, New PMI Data Continues to Be Weak

By Daniel Tabbush

  • New data for US PMI shows a continued weak economy, which is not positive for bank lending prospects or for loan pricing. It is also not positive for credit metrics.
  • New weekly data for large US banks show risk aversion remains, with rising cash, but also dismal growth in loans at only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week.
  • Large time deposits continue to rise substantially at +110% YoY in most recent week, with cash rising too – the outlook for core net interest income is worsening.

There’s Something About Air Cargo (Part II)

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Air cargo rates from Hong Kong and Shanghai have plunged in the past week, as spot demand dries up post-Christmas rush and reverts to previous (lower) contractual rates      
  • Sea freight rates surged due to the Red Sea/Suez situation, with further increases expected. China to Europe air freight is highly competitive, potentially prompting a shift from sea freight
  • Chinese air carriers and Cathay Pacific will record stronger than expected 2H23 performance on air freight, and we think air freight should continue to be firm in 1Q24

Shroom Shmooz – Spotlight on Ketamine

By Water Tower Research

  • In this edition, we begin a series of spotlights on psychedelic therapies.
  • We start with ketamine, the first legalized psychoactive drug approved for the treatment of a mental health disorder—treatment-resistant depression (TRD)—being marketed under the brand name Spravato®.
  •  ‘Friends’ actor Matthew Perry’s untimely death last October has introduced ketamine to a broader market in an unfortunate way.

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Jan 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble; Japan Resilient in Face of Tragedy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble; Japan Resilient in Face of Tragedy
  • Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI’s Adolescence
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: BABA/BIDU/700 HK/0728 HK/JD/VIPS/PDD/2618 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: 1810 HK/XPEV/NIO/1211HK/LKNCY/1347.HK/688469.SH/603290.SH/605111.SH
  • Fads and Second Acts

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble; Japan Resilient in Face of Tragedy

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.2% extending losses for second day; Apple downgraded. 10Y yields above 4%. 
  • Today: NKY Futs -1.2% v cash. JPY143; Expect weak start to year’s trading. Oil prices up +3%
  • Japan: Earthquake aftermath disrupts retail, services, and transport; 55 confirmed dead, with widespread destruction. Despite short-term challenges, Japanese equity markets historically resilient to earthquake impacts.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI’s Adolescence

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.
  • Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.
  • Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: BABA/BIDU/700 HK/0728 HK/JD/VIPS/PDD/2618 HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/BIDU/700.HK/0728.HK: Alibaba layoffs staff in hybrid cloud and IoT division (+/-/-/+)
  • JD/VIPS/BABA/PDD/2618.HK: JD announces minimum 20% salary increase for retail group employees (-/-/-/-/+)
  • JD/BABA/PDD/VIPS/2618.HK: JD also launched refund without returning the product for 3P merchants (+/-/-/-/-)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: 1810 HK/XPEV/NIO/1211HK/LKNCY/1347.HK/688469.SH/603290.SH/605111.SH

By Eric Wen

  • 1810 HK/XPEV/NIO/1211HK: ZEEKR 007 hits the market, starting at 209,900 yuan (-)
  • LKNCY: Luckin plans to set up the third roasting factory, with annual capacity of 55k tons.(+)
  • 1347.HK/688469.SH/603290.SH/605111.SH: Analog Devices raising semiconductor prices by 10-20% for China customers (+)

Fads and Second Acts

By Investment Talk

  • Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids…
  • Every generation has its share of fad products, fashion statements, and hairstyles.
  • But what separates a fad from a sustainable trend? Understanding the difference between the two can be challenging.

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Jan 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The Cheap Japanese Basket: Year-End Portfolio Review and Reasons Why I Remain Bullish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The Cheap Japanese Basket: Year-End Portfolio Review and Reasons Why I Remain Bullish
  • 2023 Year-End Review – Top Three Cannabis-Investing Stories
  • Supply Chain Success
  • Auctus on Friday – 15/12/2023

The Cheap Japanese Basket: Year-End Portfolio Review and Reasons Why I Remain Bullish

By Altay Capital

  • I initially began my cheap Japanese basket in March 2023 and now that 2023 has come to an end, let’s take a look at how everything worked out.
  • But first, a quick summary of the themes in my basket and why I’m broadly still bullish on deep value Japan.
  • Within my basket of cheap Japanese companies, there are 3 broad themes: higher quality businesses with better RoEs and P/TBV closer to 0.7x, dirt cheap deep value net nets with P/TBV of 0.2-0.4x, and deeply discounted companies with underappreciated land assets

2023 Year-End Review – Top Three Cannabis-Investing Stories

By Water Tower Research

  • It was another challenging year for the cannabis industry.
  • The US cannabis MSOS ETF is in a 1,056-day drawdown and is down 87.29% from peak to trough.
  • For the year, MSOS ended +0.29%, while the global YOLO ETF fell 16.11%. US cannabis outperformed global names as the potential for rescheduling affects plant-touching US operators the most.

Supply Chain Success

By subSPAC

  • The last week of trading in the year was an eventful one for SPACs, which included two deals being announced, and an LOI being signed for a potential merger.
  • Also, a company accelerated its plans to go public by announcing a potential merger next year, and a new SPAC debuted, targeting firms in the media and entertainment industry.
  • Read on to find out about the latest about all things SPACs. 

Auctus on Friday – 15/12/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Narrowing uncertainty and resources range at Anshof – The Anshof-2 well encountered high quality Eocene sands with at least 12 metres vertical thickness and porosity of ~20%.
  • The top of the Eocene sand was encountered ~40-50 m higher than expected, suggesting a much larger and flatter structure than expected in the P50 case.
  • Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK100 per share: Production update in Oman – WI Production in November was 8,361 bbl/d.

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Jan 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China’s Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave – Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China’s Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave – Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

China’s Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave – Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • If checking the hot ADC transactions in recent years, a very big portion of ADC varieties in global licensing deals are from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which is actually very rare.
  • While international buyers are “very generous” for ADC assets and MNC’s appetite would remain strong, they will immediately calm down and stop once they see any “potential risk” behind.
  • For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, ADC license-out deal is more of a temporary catalyst. We suggest taking a rational view. ADC CDMO (e.g. WuXi XDC) could be a better investment option.

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Jan 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Topix +25% for the Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Topix +25% for the Year
  • China Precious Metals Buck Weakening Materials Trend

Japan Weekly | Topix +25% for the Year

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Performance: Topix achieved a third consecutive weekly gain, rising by +1.3% to close at 2,366. Defensive sectors, particularly healthcare, telecoms, and utilities, outperformed
  • Stock Highlights: Nihon Kohden emerged as the top performer with a +19% gain, fuelled by ValueAct Capital Management’s significant shareholding. Conversely, shippers experienced declines.
  • Annual Overview: Topix stood out as one of the best-performing global markets for the year, boasting a remarkable +25% gain. Corporate governance reforms, coupled with yen weakness, were pivotal.

China Precious Metals Buck Weakening Materials Trend

By Steven Holden

  • Rotation in to China Precious Metals stocks pushes ownership to record levels, bucking the trend of overall Materials sector decline.
  • Zijin Mining Group soars to new ownership highs, attracting funds such as RWC, Mirae and TT International over the course of 2023.
  • Second tier stocks showing signs of life, though remain lightly held among investors.

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Dec 31
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): 4 New Deep Value Double Net Net Additions To The Cheap Japanese Basket and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • 4 New Deep Value Double Net Net Additions To The Cheap Japanese Basket
  • 2023 Winners & Losers: Laggards and Rotation Plays for Global Travel/Mobility Stocks

4 New Deep Value Double Net Net Additions To The Cheap Japanese Basket

By Altay Capital

  • I’ve added several deep value names to my Japanese portfolio over the last few months.
  • While there are many net-nets in Japan, the names below are either double net nets or close, meaning if these stocks doubled, they would still be net nets.
  • There are cheaper names in Japan, but I’m filtering a bit for profitability. 

2023 Winners & Losers: Laggards and Rotation Plays for Global Travel/Mobility Stocks

By Mohshin Aziz

  • We compiled the share price movements of 183 global travel/mobility stocks to uncover general trends and identify rotation and laggard plays   
  • Tourist countries like Greece, Spain and Turkey did very well. The U.S. also performed well, almost all names closed the year higher except for those with unique problems  
  • China and anything that is China-focused performed the worst, even companies that delivered great results are not spared and currently trading at cheap valuations 

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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/NTES/PDD/VIPS/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618 HK/1519 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/NTES/PDD/VIPS/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618 HK/1519 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/1211 HK/600104 CH/601633 CH/MU/SMIC/1810 HK/981 HK

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/NTES/PDD/VIPS/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618 HK/1519 HK

By Ying Pan

  • 700HK/ NTES: NPPA publishes domestic game code for December, NetEase and Tencent received game approval (+)
  • PDD/ VIPS/ BABA/ JD/ ZTO/ 2618.HK/ 1519.HK: Express Parcel Volume collected grows +68% YoY last week (+)
  • BABA/ PDD/ JD/ VIPS/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Taobao launches refund without returning the product (+/-/-/-/-)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/1211 HK/600104 CH/601633 CH/MU/SMIC/1810 HK/981 HK

By Eric Wen

  • NIO: NIO launches new ET9 vehicle model at RMB 800K, set for delivery in 2025 (-)
  • MU/ SMIC: Micron and Fujian Jinhua reach legal settlement (+)
  • 1810 HK/ 981 HK: Huawei launches four new Nova devices with two new SoC (-/+)

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Snoozes; More Firms to Delist from TSE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | US Snoozes; More Firms to Delist from TSE
  • China Property – New Home Sales Growth Less Negative (16 Cities) To Week Ending Dec 24
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 22-28, 2023

Ohayo Japan | US Snoozes; More Firms to Delist from TSE

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.0%, Marginal gains on penultimate trading day. Oil -3%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.3% v cash. JPY141; JGC to study hydrogen production on moon!
  • Japan: Japanese firms consider delisting to enhance management amid governance reforms, requiring Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime section companies to appoint external directors for increased board independence.

China Property – New Home Sales Growth Less Negative (16 Cities) To Week Ending Dec 24

By Robert Ciemniak

  • The weekly new home sales data indicates a smaller pace of decline for the select 16 major cities with consistent data towards the year-end.
  • Xi’an stands out as an outperformer. Recent policy easing in Beijing and Shanghai may not be fully reflected in the data yet.
  • The small-sample weekly data serves as a good directional indicator as to what to expect in the national figures for the same month (published in the middle of next month).

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 22-28, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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