Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Dec 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Another Dow Record; Big Jump in Japan’s Corporate Governance Ranking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Another Dow Record; Big Jump in Japan’s Corporate Governance Ranking
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 8-14, 2023
  • India Life Insurers: IRDAI Proposes Higher Surrender Values (SBILIFE IN/ HDFCLIFE IN/ IPRU IN/ LICI)

Ohayo Japan | Another Dow Record; Big Jump in Japan’s Corporate Governance Ranking

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.26% as treasuries tumbled; Big Tech underperforms; oil +3%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.2% v cash. JPY141.9; CVC Capital Acquires Sogo Medical for $1.2bn; Japan Machinery Orders +0.7% MoM; Honda ends production of Honda e.
  • Japan has climbed from fifth to second place in the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) biennial CG Watch survey.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 8-14, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

India Life Insurers: IRDAI Proposes Higher Surrender Values (SBILIFE IN/ HDFCLIFE IN/ IPRU IN/ LICI)

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Record Highs on Dot Plot; Rohm’s Big Bet on SiC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Record Highs on Dot Plot; Rohm’s Big Bet on SiC
  • 12 Months In, China’s Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed
  • Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds
  • SPAC Talk – Back to the Peripheries or Ready for a Radical Remake?

Ohayo Japan | Record Highs on Dot Plot; Rohm’s Big Bet on SiC

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +1.4%; The Fed’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates four cuts in 2025
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.2% v cash. JPY143; KIshida shuffles Cabinet; Recruit 200bn yen share buyback; Suzuki to split stock
  • JapanX: Rohm’s multi-billion-yen investment in SiC power chips takes advantage of government support for chip industry

12 Months In, China’s Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
  • A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
  • Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

By Tina Banerjee

  • Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.
  • Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.
  • Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.

SPAC Talk – Back to the Peripheries or Ready for a Radical Remake?

By Water Tower Research

  • Back to the peripheries. The past two years have seen a significant retreat in investor interest that has all but brought SPACs back to the peripheries of the investing world.
  • Traditional IPOs have been restored as the vehicle of choice for private companies to go public.
  • SPAC IPO famine. Into the final month of the year, 2023 can be best summed up as an acceleration of the negative trends seen in 2022.

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Dec 13
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | CPI Sends Stocks to New Highs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | CPI Sends Stocks to New Highs
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BABA/Temu/Shein/PDD/CPNG/SE/AMZN/MELI/JD/1024 HK/2618 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/TCOM/NIO/HTHT/ATAT
  • Indian Contract Manufacturers: A Pair Trade Idea Between Gland Pharma and Syngene International

Ohayo Japan | CPI Sends Stocks to New Highs

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.5%; US Consumer prices +3.1% YoY; Oracle shares down -12% after Q2 miss
  • Today: NKY Futs flat v cash. JPY 145.5; Renault initiates the sale of a 5% stake in Nissan
  • Murakami takes 5.9% stake in Glosel; Macnica’s bid was too cheap. Expect a bump

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BABA/Temu/Shein/PDD/CPNG/SE/AMZN/MELI/JD/1024 HK/2618 HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/MELI/PDD/Shein/1519 HK: Cainiao launches charter flight route to Mexico (+/+/-/-/-/)
  • 700 HK: Tencent gaming studio <Level Infinite> announced 4 new games at The Game Award 2023(+)
  • BABA/Temu/Shein/CPNG/SE/AMZN/MELI: Alibaba plans to launch LLM AI-powered <1688> in South Korea(+/+/+/+/+/-/-)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/TCOM/NIO/HTHT/ATAT

By Eric Wen

  • BABA/TCOM: China Tourism – Singapore and China to establish mutual 30-day visa exemption (+)
  • NIO: NIO Auto to spin off its battery manufacturing business for financing (+)
  • HTHT/ATAT: China Tourism Update – Chinese Embassies abroad temporarily reduce visa fees (+)

Indian Contract Manufacturers: A Pair Trade Idea Between Gland Pharma and Syngene International

By Tina Banerjee

  • We are recommending to go long on Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN) and short on Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN). 
  • Gland Pharma, with its niche focus on generic injectables is expected to be outlier, while Syngene, with substantial exposure to early-stage biotech research will continue to have muted performance.
  • Over the last six months, Gland Pharma shares rallied 83%, while Syngene International shares declined 5%. We expect the performance gap between the two companies will widen further.

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Dec 12
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners
  • Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?
  • Ohayo Japan | TSE Increases Pressure on Parent/Child Structures; Rohm’s Big Bet on SiC Chips
  • India Banks – Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Hooker Furniture Beats on Improved Margins
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended December 8, 2023
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending December 8, 2023

2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Jet fuel price has declined in the past two months and is 20% lower than the September peak. Positive for airlines but we have yet to see any earnings upgrade   
  • All the Chines state carriers (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) and Taiwan’s EVA Airways are unhedged, benefiting the most from this lower fuel price trend 
  • Worst off due to fuel hedge cover at higher than current market prices are Qantas Airways (75% hedged), Air New Zealand (54% hedged) and Japan Airlines (40% hedged)  

Ohayo Japan | TSE Increases Pressure on Parent/Child Structures; Rohm’s Big Bet on SiC Chips

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.4%, Fed meeting & CPI today; Macy’s +19% on buyout plan;
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.8% v cash. JPY146.2; TSE asks companies to improve disclosure on subsidiary companies
  • JapanX: Rohm’s multi-billion-yen investment in SiC power chips signals takes advantage of government support for chip industry

India Banks – Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There are few banking systems in the world or in Asia-Pacific that show such a steady but significant reduction in bad loans as in India.
  • Credit costs can remain subdued for sometime with better NPL levels and this can also lead the way to better loan volume, as loan officers take on more risk.
  • Banking penetration remains incredibly low in India compared with almost all countries in the region, and this means that there can be sustained robust growth.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Hooker Furniture Beats on Improved Margins

By Water Tower Research

  • Hooker Furniture results highlighted the past week in the furniture/furnishings space.
  • Hooker reported EPS of $0.65 on sales of $116.8 million, both ahead of FactSet consensus estimates of $0.28 and $116.3 million, respectively.
  • A year ago, Hooker reported EPS of $0.42.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended December 8, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 0.4% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.5%).
  • Energy Technology (13.2% of the index) was down by 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.5% of the index) was up 1.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 1.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 1.8%.
  • Top 10 Performers: VIEW, CPTN, LILM, ALTA, SPI, FE, WBX, PEV, EGT, CMC

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending December 8, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • It was another strong week for cannabis stocks, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF and the global YOLO ETF gaining 7.65% and 5.65%, respectively.
  • MSOS is now +7.62% YTD and +53.91% since the HHS recommended Schedule III on August 29, 2023.
  • The MSOS ETF had $29,340,300 in inflows this week. Some large investors are waiting for the DEA response prior to pushing in their chips, but others are comfortable increasing allocations in advance. 

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars
  • Stories Behind the Reported Nov 2023 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales
  • 2024 China’s Capital Market Outlook – Santa Claus Is Knocking on the Door

Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.4%; Six weeks of gains on strength in the job market
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.7% v cash. JPY145/$; Private Equity interest in Tsuruha; Rohm & Toshiba JV on SiC chips
  • JapanX: iQPS, a leader in small satellite SAR technology, recently debuted on the Tokyo Growth Market, securing funds to expand and provide vital real-time data for national security.

Stories Behind the Reported Nov 2023 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

By Andrew Lu

  • More clear y/y improvement for 8/12″ raw wafer, WiFi IC, GaAs RF/VCSEL, and memory vendors but more y/y deterioration for OLED/LCD driver, LCD panel, design service, equipment/materials, and foundry vendors.
  • GaAs RF and gaming GPU card vendors showed very impressive y/y sales growth of 54% and 63%, respectively. ABF substrate vendors showed the weakest sales decline of 34% among all.
  • Except A Data (+2.5% m/m) and Phison Electronics (+5.6% m/m) might see stronger share price to reflect stronger November sales, most of others see good/bad news in the price already.

2024 China’s Capital Market Outlook – Santa Claus Is Knocking on the Door

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on Fisher’s Law M*V=P*Q, the interest rate hikes in the US and management issues in China have led to continuous decline of V, thus forming the illusion of deflation.
  • The Fed’s rate hike is nearing its end. The huge amount of dollars need to be matched with corresponding assets. The only place with a matching assets pool is China.
  • If there’s a serious economic stagnation, recession, combined with hyperinflation, there may be a historic great depression. How China will respond is the key to determine the future global landscape.

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Dec 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality?
  • GEMWeekly (8 Dec 2023): China Macro; PDD, Tencent, Naver

Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality?

By Amrutha Raj

  • Cybertruck was first conceptualized by Elon Musk in 2012. Its design epitomizes the Tesla spirit of achieving jaw-dropping engineering feats. How will it impact Tesla’s financials?
  • The Cybertruck offers unique value proposition through its eye-catching design while also offering rapid pickup, large towing capacity, and a compelling battery architecture.
  • Cybertruck is unlikely to affect Tesla’s financial top-line and bottom-line anytime soon. The truck is slated to be cash-flow negative for the next two years.

GEMWeekly (8 Dec 2023): China Macro; PDD, Tencent, Naver

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Chinese credit ratings, exports, and imports growth.
  • Companies mentioned:PDD Holdings (PDD US), Tencent (700 HK), Naver Corp (035420 KS)

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Dec 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Benefit One and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Benefit One, M3,Eiken Chemical

Japan Weekly | Benefit One, M3,Eiken Chemical

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Topix hits a one month low as the BOJ Governor hints at an exit from negative rates policy
  • Major Movers: Dai-Ichi Life launched a rival bid for Benefit One, trumping M3’s offer. Good news for Benefit One and Pasona
  • Activist Watch: Nippon Active Value takes new positions in Eiken Chemical and Meiko Shipping

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Dec 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Conclusion) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Conclusion)
  • 2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners
  • Ohayo Japan | Google +5% on New AI Model; BOJ Confident to Exit Negative Stance
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 1-7, 2023
  • Commodity Analysis – US Coffee C Futures

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Conclusion)

By Alexis Dwek

  • Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
  • However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
  • Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners

By Rikki Malik

  • Real interest rates moving lower together with massively increasing fiscal deficits is a plus for gold.
  • Gold miners are generally poor long-term investments, but their time is close.
  • Miners’ margins are improving as revenue increases while costs decrease.

Ohayo Japan | Google +5% on New AI Model; BOJ Confident to Exit Negative Stance

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: Stocks snap losing streak with 1.4% Nasdaq rally. Google’s new AI model Gemini lifts tech stocks. Oil below $70/bbl
  • Today: Japanese stocks likely to end week on a high following overseas stocks. Bidding war for Benefit One as Daiichi Life launches TOB at higher price
  • Markets: Bank of Japan more and more comfortable with exit from negative rate policy. Yen strengthens to 144/$ on Ueda’s remarks.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 1-7, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Commodity Analysis – US Coffee C Futures

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • According to Graph 1, during the period August 28, 2023 – November 24, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Coffee, despite some notable fluctuations.
  • During the period under consideration, there was a significant price correction from September 19th until the beginning of October.
  • In contrast, from 15th of October until the middle of November an upward trend was observed. 

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Dec 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Japan Set for Lower Open; Activist Proposals Reach Record High and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Japan Set for Lower Open; Activist Proposals Reach Record High
  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

Ohayo Japan | Japan Set for Lower Open; Activist Proposals Reach Record High

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: Stocks failed to hold onto early advances in a choppy session as the job market clearly slowing. Nonfarm payrolls the focus on Friday
  • Today: Japanese stocks are set for a decline if they follow the weakness overnight and Futures. Toyota continues to sell non-core assets, while Rakuten raising money from Bank sale.
  • JapanX: The White & Case Review of 2023 Shareholders’ Meetings – Activist Proposals in Japan Reach Record High

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

By William Keating

  • Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period
  • Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ
  • China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. 

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Dec 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: SE/BABA/1519.HK/BIDU/700 HK/CPNG/PDD/BABA/3690 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: SE/BABA/1519.HK/BIDU/700 HK/CPNG/PDD/BABA/3690 HK
  • The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 43
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/1211.HK/3931.HK/LI/JD/1810.HK
  • The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 45
  • Five Trends in Technology for 2024 – Outlook for Key Markets in Tech

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: SE/BABA/1519.HK/BIDU/700 HK/CPNG/PDD/BABA/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

  • SE/BABA/1519.HK: Shopee and Lazada plan to raise Commission Rates in Indonesia (+/+/-)
  • CPNG/PDD/BABA: AliExpress to open logistics center in South Korea to shorten delivery time (-/-/+)
  • 3690.HK: Meituan Grocery re-branded as Ella Supermarket, targets turning profit in 2024 (+)

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 43

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Three stock remains, 11 stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 128% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 59%

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/1211.HK/3931.HK/LI/JD/1810.HK

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV: XPeng G9 gaining traction in its launch in Europ (+)
  • 1211.HK/3931.HK: 9 Power Battery Companies exited the market in 2023 (+)
  • JD/1810.HK/981.HK: Huawei new smartphones cases listed, prelude to new handset launch (-/+/+)

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 45

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 184% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 21%

Five Trends in Technology for 2024 – Outlook for Key Markets in Tech

By Water Tower Research

  • After two years of working through the excessive growth witnessed in 2020, the $6 trillion e- commerce market is expected to accelerate modestly to ~11% in 2024.
  • Major secular trends such as mobile commerce (m-commerce) and buy now, pay later (BNPL) should help drive the market forward.
  • Digital advertising is expected to grow 9% to $719 billion, with a potential major boost from the fast- growing free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) as major players such as Netflix, Amazon, and Google introduced new content and services to draw increased consumer adoption.

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