Thematic (Sector/Industry)

BABA/CPNG/PDD: AliExpress offering 0% commission to sellers of Korean brand products (+/-/-)
700 HK/NTES:NPPA has released the latest approvals for imported games, and Tencent’s highly anticipated <DNF Mobile> has received approval(+)
3690 HK: Meituan changed organizational structure by consolidating In-store and food delivery business(+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY/XPEV/LI/NIO/1211 HK/300750 CH

LKNCY: Luckin Coffee further raised subsidy to franchisees in winter season(-)
XPEV/LI/NIO/1211 HK:Deliveries of new energy vehicles generally continued to pick up in the last three days of January, except for NIO(+/+/-/+)
300750 CH: EVE’s large cylindrical battery in production, increasing the threat to CATL a little bit(-)

Picking a Benchmark

By Investment Talk

As I reflected on my performance in 2023, I was reminded that benchmarking can be a brutal process.
But it keeps you humble. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about my chosen benchmark, the S&P 500.
I occasionally think as an international investor I should change it.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended February 2, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 1.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.3%).
Energy Technology (13.9% of the index) was up by 5.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (54.5% of the index) was up 1.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 0.1%.
Top 10 Performers: EVTV, PLUG, JEV, NXT, VIEW, PGTK, LCID, NAAS, ANRG, ELBM

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Jan 24

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/MNSO/300750 CH/1211 HK and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/MNSO/300750 CH/1211 HK
[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/MNSO/300750 CH/1211 HK

LKNCY: Luckin Coffee will launch Moutai flavored chocolate milk on next Monday, purposing at destocking(+)
MNSO: Takeaways from Miniso Investor Day, “IP” is the key term(+)
300750 CH: CATL’s Shenxing Long Life took marke share from SVOLT to win NETA L series of Hozon(+)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products(+/+/-/-)
PDD/ZTO/1519 HK: PDD partners with ZTO and J&T for upcoming “Open during Spring Festival” event (+/+/+)
PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/ SE/ CPNG/ MELI: Temu planning to add 3P model (+/-)

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Jan 23

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future.
The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.
Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.

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Jan 22

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Surge; Japan’s Seven-Year Streak of Prosperity and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Surge; Japan’s Seven-Year Streak of Prosperity
2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected
Maverick Charts & Markets – January 2024 Edition #14
Private Brands in Japan: Getting Bigger – Literally

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Surge; Japan’s Seven-Year Streak of Prosperity

Last week, stocks surged, propelling the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to record highs. Positive economic data and consumer sentiment overshadowed a decline in existing home sales.
This week, CB meetings in the eurozone, Canada, and BoJ (Tues) will shape market expectations. US earnings will further contribute to a dynamic week.
Japan’s equity market remains popular, but divergence from the PMI output index raises concerns of overheating. A flash PMI (Wed) report will provide insight into Japan’s growth conditions.

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

By William Keating

For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units, a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.
For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.
The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25

Maverick Charts & Markets – January 2024 Edition #14

By Maverick Equity Research

One would meet here people from all walks of life, interests, subject of study, leisure reading, university studying, work etc.
One can meet a 20-year youngster that dropped from university and works 10-12h/a day on his app which already works very very well, to a 45-year chap that has been devoting his last 5 years to give Shakespeare a new novel interpretation … which makes me tell myself and my friends many times that our single focused interests, opinions, biases and views about the world might be quite narrow and 100,000 miles apart from somebodies else’s.
It’s not about being ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, but about the fundamental aspect to remain open minded … .

Private Brands in Japan: Getting Bigger – Literally

Private brands developed and managed by retailers themselves offer plenty of price and marketing flexibility during these inflationary times.
But it is not only their popularity as cheaper alternatives that is growing, so too are pack sizes, as consumers increase shopping volume and reduce shopping trip frequency.
The trend is another sign of why investors should look out for retailers with good private brands, given the impact on both sales and margin growth.

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Jan 21

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US Banks – Flat Line Loans and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

US Banks – Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative
GEMWeekly (19 Jan 2024): China Macro; Baidu, Tencent, ByteDance
What to Expect In SK Hynix and Samsung Earnings Calls

US Banks – Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

By Daniel Tabbush

US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction.
With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks’ data, loans declined USD58bn.
Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters.

GEMWeekly (19 Jan 2024): China Macro; Baidu, Tencent, ByteDance

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: China’s GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales data
Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK), Tencent (700 HK), ByteDance (1439927D CH)

What to Expect In SK Hynix and Samsung Earnings Calls

By Jim Handy

SK hynix’ earnings call has been scheduled for 9:00 AM Korea, January 25, and Samsung’s for 10:00 AM Korea, January 31. What can investors expect to hear?
Three indicators have provided a preview of the two calls’ directions: WSTS, Spot Pricing, and Micron’s earnings call one month earlier.
The news for the market is positive, so expect to hear that these companies are making progress towards regaining profitability in semiconductors.

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Jan 20

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Money Forward and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers
Auctus on Friday – 19/01/2024
[Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/9995HK/TCOM/1024HK/780HK/3690HK
[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI

Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers

Japanese stocks have maintained their positive start to the year. The Nikkei average rose by +1.1% on the week with chip stocks leading the gains.
Money Forward was up +19% on strong Q4 sales (+42% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
Activist Oasis wants a say on Shidax MBO; Earnings season kicks up a gear next week

Auctus on Friday – 19/01/2024

By Auctus Advisors

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$24 per share: Further exploration success in Colombia – The Perico-1 exploration well at CPO-5 encountered hydrocarbons in the Barco (Guadalupe) formation.
The Halcon-1 well at CPO-5 that also encountered potential hydrocarbons in the Guadalupe flowed at intermittent rates.
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Reducing net debt by a further US$10 mm – FY23 production was 6,508 boe/d, which is the middle of the production guidance of 6.35-6.75 mboe/d.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/9995HK/TCOM/1024HK/780HK/3690HK

XPEV/ NIO: Xpeng and NIO’s weekly sales show weakness (-)
9995 HK: Rumors about RemeGen’s ADC to Pfizer might be returned (-)
TCOM/1024 HK/780 HK/3690 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI

NTES: NetEase Announces <Eggy Party>’s Spin-off Game <Project Three> (+)
1219 HK/ PDD/ SHEIN/ BABA: Temu negotiating with J&T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/ SE/ MELI: Temu launches in South Africa (+/-)

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024
Chinese Auto Chip Firms Racing to Cash In on NEV Boom

Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks

US stocks higher on rally in Apple shares and chip stocks; AAPL +4% on broker upgrade; TSMC +9% after earning beat and strong outlook.
Japan faces a crisis with 250,000 “zombie” companies at an 11-year high in fiscal 2022, a 30% rise, burdened by pandemic support and escalating debt, reveals Teikoku Databank.
Sekisui House launches $5 billion bid for US housebuilder; Fujitsu to refrain from bidding on UK projects; Honda expects 10% sales growth in US this year.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Chinese Auto Chip Firms Racing to Cash In on NEV Boom

By Caixin Global

Chinese firms are rushing to make their own auto chips as demand continues to increase in the world’s largest car market.
In 2023, there were more than 300 local auto chipmakers, nearly 10 times the number from three years ago, said Yuan Chengyin, general manager of National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, a NEV research center funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology.
China provides the best market for auto chipmakers as the demand for smart driving cars is much higher compared with other countries, said Zhang Qiang, chairman of Wuxi-based auto chipmaker Xinchi Technology, at a business event Tuesday.

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Jan 18

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | 10Y Back Above 4%; Weak China GDP and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | 10Y Back Above 4%; Weak China GDP
China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023
Only 27 New Malls Now Due in 2024
Tech Talk: Smart Cities Delivering on the Promise

Ohayo Japan | 10Y Back Above 4%; Weak China GDP

US Stocks lower as Treasury yields continued to climb, with 10Y back above 4%, on back of strong retail spending. Odds of March cut fall 61%→50%
Nikkei Futures point to flat open; A weak print for China GDP likely to weigh on Japan exporters; MHI to trial carbon capture pilot at KEPCOs plant.
Japan recorded 25m tourists in 2023, reaching 80% of pre-pandemic peak; Yen remains weak at 148/$ – good rate for visitors

China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

Today’s NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
But the main caveat persists – the 2022 data (March-December) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales
Land sales /acquisitions figures, however, show a clear improvement on multiple (non-NBS) metrics, especially for major 13 developers

Only 27 New Malls Now Due in 2024

Shopping mall development improved a little in 2023 but looks set to dip again as developers hold back investment in new builds in favour of refurbishment.
Sales continue to climb and are now at parity with 2019.
A smaller, but more efficient, mall sector will emerge in the next few years.

Tech Talk: Smart Cities Delivering on the Promise

The global Smart Cities market size was valued at $1.5 trillion in 2020 and is projected to grow to $11 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of more than 20%.
While North America is currently the largest market, Asia-Pacific is projected to overtake it in a few years.
Smart Cities are urban areas that utilize digital infrastructure and interconnected systems, most likely using artificial intelligence (AI).

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Jan 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK
Ohayo Japan | Stocks Fall off Waller; English Please
AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?
China’s Pet Food Market – Attractive Investment Opportunities Would Bring Handsome Returns
[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/XPEV/TSLA/1211 HK/TCOM/780 HK/ATAT/HTHT
SPAC Talk – Why More SPAC Liquidations Are in the Cards
Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending January 12, 2024

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK

BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK: Taobao/Tmall plans to direct traffic to stores and logistics providers with better service (+/+/-/-/-)
1219 HK/PDD/SHEIN/BABA: Temu negotiating with J&T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou’s Playlet Business Expanding Rapidly, DAU Reaches 270 Million(+)

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Fall off Waller; English Please

Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared to push back against expectations for as many as six rate cuts this year.
TSE set to enforce English disclosures for all approximately 1600 companies listed on Prime market starting March 2025, aiming to attract a broader base of foreign investors
Nikkei Futs +0.8% premium; Asahi planning to hike wages +6%; Fujitsu acknowledges need to compensate Post Office victims;

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

By Douglas O’Laughlin

What inning is AI in?
If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.
Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.

China’s Pet Food Market – Attractive Investment Opportunities Would Bring Handsome Returns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Due to the decline in China’s marriage/fertility rates, pets will play an important role in childless/dink families. Single economy is another driving force for the increase in pet penetration rate.
Pet food, as a high-frequency and rigid-demand area, is the largest market.As increasing China’s pet owners are attracted by domestic brands, import substitution space in staple food subsector is significant.
As an important incremental market with high certainty, the investment opportunities in China’s pet food market cannot be missed. We analyzed three companies worth investors’ attention.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/XPEV/TSLA/1211 HK/TCOM/780 HK/ATAT/HTHT

XPEV/1211 BYD: Tesla announced price reduction for Model 3 and Model Y(-)
TCOM/780 HK: 4Q23 inbound and outbound travel recover to 82% of 2019 level, mainly from Hong Kong and Macao(-)
ATAT/HTHT: National Migration Administration introduced five facilitation measures to attract foreigners to China (+)

SPAC Talk – Why More SPAC Liquidations Are in the Cards

SPAC IPOs continue on snooze control. Last year saw just 31 SPAC IPOs priced, raising an aggregate of $3.8 billion in gross proceeds, down from 86 and $13.4 billion in 2022.
This makes 2023 the quietest year for SPAC IPOs since 2016, when 13 IPOs raised $3.5 billion.
As we start the third week of 2024, the SPAC market remains dormant, with no new pricings to report yet.

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.
Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.
The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending January 12, 2024