Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

May 12
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US/TCOM US/3690 HK/ ATAT US/700 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US/TCOM US/3690 HK/ ATAT US/700 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:ATATUS/TCOMUS/1211HK/LIUS/NIO US/XPEVUS/1810HK/300274SZ/300750 SZ/BEKEUS
  • GEMWeekly (3 May 2024): Indonesia, China, Philippines Macro; Huawei, Naver

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US/TCOM US/3690 HK/ ATAT US/700 HK

By Ying Pan

  • PDD US/SHEIN/AMZN US: Temu opens up platform to brand merchants (+/-/-)
  • TCOM US/3690 HK/ATAT US  :  Visa-free policy for 12 countries including France extended until December 31, 2025.(+/+/+)
  • 700 HK: After the release of new limited skins for <League of Legends: Wild Rift>, there has been a noticeable rebound in grossing rankings.(+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATATUS/TCOMUS/1211HK/LIUS/NIO US/XPEVUS/1810HK/300274SZ/300750 SZ/BEKEUS

By Eric Wen

  • ATAT US/TCOM US : The international hotel management group maintains a cautious attitude towards China throughout the year.（-/-）
  • 1211HK/LIUS/NIOUS/XPEVUS/1810HK:EV sales solid in the 5th week of April 2024, NIO continues to benefit from SU7 overflow, BYD continues to be strong, and Xiaomi deliveries decline for three consecutive weeks.(+/+/+/-/-)
  • 300274 SZ / 300750 SZ/ 1211 HK : Tesla’s Shanghai energy storage gigafactory was approved, mainly producing energy storage for export, benefiting China’s supply chain.(+/+/ -)

GEMWeekly (3 May 2024): Indonesia, China, Philippines Macro; Huawei, Naver

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Indonesian and Philippine GDP growth, and Chinese exports data.
  • Companies mentioned:Huawei Technology (40978Z CH), Naver Corp (035420 KS)

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May 11
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Relo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Relo, KHI, Kose, Yokogawa
  • Themes of India: Future of Data Centre in India
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 10/05/2024
  • Shroom Shmooz – How Valid Are ICER’s Concerns About MAPS’ MDMA- AT Trials?
  • Water Tower Hour Recap – Cannabis Rescheduling Review with Poseidon

Japan Weekly | Relo, KHI, Kose, Yokogawa

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese equity indices and 10-year JGB yields remain flat as overseas markets benefit from positive earnings and softer labor data in the US.
  • Topix 500 earnings reports influence individual equity movements with around 50% reported; remainder expected next week.
  • Notable stock movements include Relo Group (+22%), Kose (+22%), and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (+21%), with earnings exceeding expectations, while Seibu Holdings (-16%) faces uncertainties in its real estate strategy.

Themes of India: Future of Data Centre in India

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India, with high data generation but low data center capacity, is attracting investments in India.
  • Rapid digital transformation and lower setup costs are driving India’s data center market growth, offering significant investment opportunities.
  • Understanding India’s potential as a data center hub highlights investment prospects and the need for sustainable practices in infrastructure development.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 10/05/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with Vitol for a minimum of 20 mbbl/d.
  • The agreement improves GeoPark’s price realizations by US$0.15/bbl vs the current agreement.
  • As part of this transaction, GeoPark will obtain immediate access to committed funding from Vitol for up to US$300 mm, with an option to increase by another US$200 mm for a total of US$500 mm, in prepaid future oil sales over the period of the offtake contract.

Shroom Shmooz – How Valid Are ICER’s Concerns About MAPS’ MDMA- AT Trials?

By Water Tower Research

  • ICER pours cold water on MAPS’ MDMA-AT candidate for treating PTSD.
  • In March, the Institute fo  Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) published its draft evidence report on MAPS’ (aka Lykos Therapeutics) Phase III clinical trials.
  • The draft report, which is not the final version, controversially questions the integrity of the studies and validity of MAPS’ reported results.

Water Tower Hour Recap – Cannabis Rescheduling Review with Poseidon

By Water Tower Research

  • Poseidon co-founders Emily and Morgan Paxhia joined us on the Water Tower Hour podcast to discuss the rescheduling news.
  • Those interested can listen to this podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or on our website.
  • On April 30, 2024, the DEA reportedly agreed with the HHS recommendation to reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. 

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May 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector
  • Ohayo Japan | Dow Leads
  • Asian Healthcare Spend as a Percentage of GDP – the Laggards

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

By Raghav Chandra Mathur

  • Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed profitability for the sub-sector, even though operational headwinds and policy uncertainty remain key challenges for the sector in the latter half of the year.
  • Suffice to say the trend in Insurers’ credit risk profiles, measured using Criat’s Credit Cycle Indices (CCCIs), has been non-homogenous across the continent with firms domiciled in economies such as South Korea and Hong Kong facing a substantially higher risk than those domiciled in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan.
  • Strong net investment returns over the past year have helped boost profitability for most of the sub-sector that has increased its exposure to government securities. 

Ohayo Japan | Dow Leads

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks surged Thursday, extending the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s winning streak to seven days
  • Japan’s major trading houses aim for double-digit returns on equity (ROE) by optimizing portfolios and enhancing shareholder returns.
  • Sony Group, among other interested parties, is exploring the acquisition of online comic store operator Infocom Corp, with a potential deal valued at up to 200 billion yen

Asian Healthcare Spend as a Percentage of GDP – the Laggards

By Avien Pillay

  • China’s healthcare spend has been growing faster than GDP, however it still lags a number of the other emerging markets especially in Latin America.
  • India’s healthcare spend is very concerning and has been stagnant/declining despite the high growth in GDP over the past few decades.
  • China and India need to drastically increase spend to address their critical healthcare issues or face a declining growth rate.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/NIO US/LI US/1211 HK/1801 HK/1810 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:TCOM US /3690 HK /ATAT US/700 HK/BABA US/JD US/PDD US/2618 HK/Douyin

Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its winning streak to six days, climbing 0.44% to close at 39,056, its longest positive stretch in 2024
  • Logisteed, a group company of KKR, to acquire Alps Logistics, valued at over 150 billion yen.
  • TOYOTA MOTOR reported record net profit of 4.9 trillion yen for the fiscal year ended March, doubling from the previous year.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/NIO US/LI US/1211 HK/1801 HK/1810 HK

By Eric Wen

  • BEKE US: April existing home sales on track of recovery, while new home lukewarm, and high tier cities policy easing bodes well for Beike.(+)
  • LI US : LI L6 sales momentum accelerates during May Day holiday.(/)
  • NIO US/ LI US / 1211 HK :  New energy vehicle sales growth rebounded in the fourth week of April 2024, with Nio, LI and Zeekr regaining market shares （/////）

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:TCOM US /3690 HK /ATAT US/700 HK/BABA US/JD US/PDD US/2618 HK/Douyin

By Ying Pan

  • TCOM US /3690 HK /ATAT US : Domestic tourism strong but outbound tourism weak during May Day holiday; strong transportation but weak accommodation.(-/+/-)
  • 700 HK:  Tencent’s New Mobile Game <One Piece: Ambition> Will Undergo Public Testing Next Week（+）
  • BABA US/JD US/PDD US/2618 HK: MOFCOM publishes commerce data for Labor Day Holiday (+/+/+/+)

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May 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Activist Targets Toyota Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Activist Targets Toyota Group
  • China’s Cardiovascular Disease Crisis
  • 24H2 Capital Market Outlook – Time to Prepare for the Upcoming Market Crash
  • Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)
  • Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

Ohayo Japan | Activist Targets Toyota Group

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow edged up 32 points to close at 38,884, extending its winning streak to its longest since December
  • Asset Value Investors proposed dissolving the parent-subsidiary listing of Toyota Industries and its listed subsidiary, Aichi Corp, seeking changes in corporate governance
  • SoftBank Group invested in British AI startup Wave Technologies, contributing to a $1.05 billion financing round alongside NVIDIA and Microsoft.

China’s Cardiovascular Disease Crisis

By Avien Pillay

  • The cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality gap between China and the West has narrowed/closed relatively quickly. CVD mortality rates in China exceeded Western levels a decade ago.
  • China scores poorly for a number of leading CVD causes including diet, tobacco consumption and air pollution.
  • Given the crisis situation, the Chinese authorities are left with no alternative but to drastically increase investment in healthcare and education.

24H2 Capital Market Outlook – Time to Prepare for the Upcoming Market Crash

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The real estate markets in the US/HK are on the eve of a collapse, which could affect China’s “Greater Bay Area”. Chinese Mainland’s financial system will face another test.
  • The Fed may “surprisingly” launch one more rate hike. Since the US has pledged its allies to provide unlimited supply of dollar, it seems to be preparing for extreme scenarios.
  • The world could become “out of imagination” in 24H2. So, we would recommend offload first in 24H1, hold enough cash, and then wait for the time to bottom-fish stocks.

Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts.
  • Smartphone markets continue to recover, but the demand is sluggish, and handsets should be flattish for the year. Industrial is bottoming at multiple companies, and Skyworks looks like it lost RF share to Qorvo. Telecom looks to be bottoming (NXPI).
  • I think it’s pretty clear that the automotive cycle should be bought, not sold. And we continue to see strength in consumers (AMKR, QCOM). I am starting to like the Rambus story again, as I think their client business, the PMIC, and potentially CXL businesses could add 200m+ incremental revenue on top of the DDR5 share story in the coming years.

Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

By Michael Causton

  • The rebound in tourist numbers to Japan after Covid was inevitable given the latent demand and ongoing popularity of the country as a destination.
  • But more surprising has been the huge diversity of nationalities, making up for the lag in Chinese visitors, boosting traffic at key retailers (as listed below).
  • Also new is the higher spend per visitor thanks to the cheap Yen, boosting retailers across the spectrum. Data from Google and Qunar suggests much more growth to come.

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Japan Playing Catch-Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Japan Playing Catch-Up
  • Examining Market Signals: The Consequences of India’s VIX Drop
  • AMD’s MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – May 6, 2024
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 3, 2024

Ohayo Japan | Japan Playing Catch-Up

By Mark Chadwick

  • The market saw another day of gains as the Dow rose by 176 points, marking its fourth consecutive day of positive movement, on potential ceasefire in Gaza
  • Japan Tobacco Inc. (JT) is embarking on a significant investment of around 450 billion yen in heated cigarettes over the next three years.
  • Sony Group and U.S. investment fund Apollo Global Management have jointly proposed the acquisition of Paramount Global for $26 billion.

Examining Market Signals: The Consequences of India’s VIX Drop

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • VIX is a measure of market sentiment; lower values generally indicate lower volatility and higher values indicate higher volatility.
  • How the market reacted to significant market moves in VIX?
  • Does the recent fall in VIX suggest correction ahead in the markets?

AMD’s MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7% on last week’s result. Let’s talk about the result and why it was so disappointing.

  • AMD exactly matched EPS, was slightly light on revenue, and guided essentially in line with Q2 guidance.

  • This also was one of the slightest EPS and revenue beats in recent years. The last time this happened, the PC segment was imploding. This time it’s embedded revenue.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – May 6, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • It was a mixed week in stocks, with most Water Tower Research furniture/furnishings indexes outperforming (with Residential the weak spot following LEG’s dividend cut).
  • Our Home Goods Retailers Index (+6.0%) significantly outperformed the broader market (+0.2% to +1.0%) as well as our Mass Retailers Index (+1.8%) and our Commercial/Contract Furniture Index (+1.6%).
  • Our Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index declined 0.9%, driven in part by Leggett & Platt’s steep 23.9% sell-off following its 1Q24 earnings release and investor call.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 3, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • This week, the AP reported the DEA has agreed with the HHS recommendation to move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III.
  • This would remove the 280E tax burden for plant-touching operators, allow for meaningful medical research, and attract new investors.
  • The US cannabis MSOS ETF gained 10.14% this week, while the global YOLO ETF climbed 7.67%. 

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

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May 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Golden Week; Fujitsu General and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Golden Week; Fujitsu General, Daiichi Sankyo, M3
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 26-May 3, 2024
  • GEMWeekly (3 May 2024): China, South Korea Macro; Baidu, Tencent, SK Hynix

Japan Weekly | Golden Week; Fujitsu General, Daiichi Sankyo, M3

By Mark Chadwick

  • Last week saw a positive trend in the Nikkei average despite a shorter trading week.
  • Next week’s outlook remains solid with Japan expecting a wave of earnings announcements from major companies.
  • Winners in the market included PeptiDream, Misumi, Fujitsu General, and Daiichi Sankyo, while M3, JTECK, Nihon M&A Center, and Ibiden faced declines

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 26-May 3, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

GEMWeekly (3 May 2024): China, South Korea Macro; Baidu, Tencent, SK Hynix

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: China PMI data, South Korean exports, and consumer inflation.
  • Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK), Tencent (700 HK), SK Hynix (000660 KS)

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May 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – April 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – April 2024
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 03/05/2024

US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – April 2024

By Garvit Bhandari

  • EV charging ports have been growing faster than any other fueling category and now account for around 88% of all alternative fueling stations.
  • There are a total of 68,077 public and private EV charging station locations in the US as of 30 April 2024.
  • Total EVSE charging ports were182,632, up 8.4% vs. 2023. In terms of providers, ChargePoint Network has the highest charging ports accounting for 36% of the total ports in the US.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 03/05/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.75 per share: Raising new equity to fund a high impact activity programme – ADX has raised A$13.5 mm of new equity priced at A$0.105 per share.
  • One free-attaching option will be issued for evert two placement shares with an exercise price of A$0.15 per share and an expiry date of 08/05/2026.
  • The proceeds from the raise will fund (1) the production testing of the 450 m gas column encountered at the Welchau exploration well (the well might also be deepened to assess the exploration potential below the current total depth of the well), (2) the residual drilling cost (net of the carry provided by MND) of a gas exploration well on the ADX-AT-I licence, (3) the residual cost (net of the carry provided by MND) of the drilling and tie-in the Anshof-2A sidetrack and (4) upgrades to the gas processing facilities at ADX’s Vienna Basin fields.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD
  • Japan’s Semiconductor Export Controls Disrupt Global Supply Chain, Ministry Says
  • China’s Steel Industry Faces Sharp Drop in Profits Amid Rising Costs and Weak Demand
  • Portfolio Update: April 2024
  • The Hardman & Co Monthly: May 2024

Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide another update on our favorite junior copper names.
  • Copper prices have started to tick up (+16% YTD) on squeezed global supply and BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)  making an offer for Anglo American (AAL LN).
  • Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +29% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -12% YTD.

Japan’s Semiconductor Export Controls Disrupt Global Supply Chain, Ministry Says

By Caixin Global

  • The export controls on certain semiconductor products proposed by the Japanese government will severely undermine the stability of the global supply chain and affect trade between the two countries, China’s commerce ministry said on Monday.
  • Japan last week proposed to expand restrictions on exports of some technologies related to semiconductors or quantum computing, requiring companies to seek government approval for such exports.
  • The change will take effect as early as July, after a period of public consultation until May 25. Calling the measures “erroneous practices,” the ministry urged Japan to rescind them and pledged to take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.

China’s Steel Industry Faces Sharp Drop in Profits Amid Rising Costs and Weak Demand

By Caixin Global

  • The profits of China’s iron and steel enterprises fell by nearly half year-on-year in the first quarter, and the average profit margin was a mere 0.58%, according to China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).
  • The steel industry’s biggest problem is low margin, CISA deputy secretary general Chen Yuqian said at a press conference Tuesday.
  • Steelmakers’ revenue fell faster than the drop in production costs, as iron ore prices remained high, while sales declined and steel prices saw a consistent drop.

Portfolio Update: April 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality stocks.

  • Although Andrew acknowledged that the title might be seen as provocative, he raised valid concerns about the potential challenges of achieving satisfactory returns in the future by investing in quality-growth-at-a-reasonable-price stocks, given their lofty valuations.

  • As an example, he pointed to Costco, which is presently trading at a P/E ratio of 50 despite its long-term expected growth rate only slightly surpassing that of the US GDP.

The Hardman & Co Monthly: May 2024

By Hardman & Co

  • Feature article: Is silver the cheapest asset on the planet?
  • Silver is a precious metal, a monetary metal and an industrial metal with a surprisingly wide range of uses.
  • It’s not that well understood by investors and tends to get overshadowed by gold – but, perhaps, not for much longer.

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