Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Flat; Microsoft to Spend Big on JP Data Centers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Flat; Microsoft to Spend Big on JP Data Centers
  • Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?
  • A Deep Dive into Chinese Industrial Production
  • Global O&G Firms’ Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended April 5, 2024


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Flat; Microsoft to Spend Big on JP Data Centers

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks in holding pattern ahead of March CPI report on Wednesday. NKY Futures point to lower open in Tokyo
  • Microsoft plans to invest $2.9 billion in data centers in Japan by 2025, responding to Tokyo’s AI computing demand
  • Seven & i Holdings mulls selling a stake in its superstore business, Ito-Yokado and York-Benimaru, by creating a new intermediate holding company

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

By Andrew Lu

  • Taiwan Dell said “AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.
  • We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.
  • 1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?

A Deep Dive into Chinese Industrial Production

By Massif Capital Research

  • This post examines China’s economic strategies and their impact on global trade and geopolitical dynamics, focusing on the shift from low-value-added goods to high-value-added industries like lithium-ion batteries, solar cells, and EVs.
  • It highlights China’s approach of integrating economic and political strategies under the concept of “China, Inc.” where the state uses overcapacity as a strategic tool to further its geostrategic interests.
  • The current Chinese export-led strategy challenges the principles of free trade, raises concerns about the sustainability of global economic interdependence, and is the basis for fear about China dumping industrial products on developed markets.

Global O&G Firms’ Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

By Raghav Chandra Mathur

  • Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date.
  • Robust demand due to recovery in economic activity across major markets has been a steady tailwind to oil prices despite the prevalent geo-political catalysts that have spurred across global markets.
  • Globally listed oil and gas producers and service providers have therefore seen a marginal improvement in their aggregate credit risk profiles, with their Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) dropping by close to 2bps over the same period.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended April 5, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 1.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.8%).
  • Energy Technology (12.7% of the index) was down by 5.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (57.1% of the index) was down by 1.0%, ClimateTech Mining was down by 1.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (24.1% of index) was down by 1.2%.
  • Top 10 Performers: VVPR, NEOV, KULR, ORGN, EGT, BLDE, WAVE, FAT, AQMS, HCNWF

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes
  • Thematic Report : Is It Time to Bet on Indian Large Caps?
  • Ohayo Japan | Oil Cools; Shin-Etsu to Build New Japan Plant
  • India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi
  • 2024 Capital Market Outlook – Seize the Historic Opportunity of the Upcoming Dollar Reset
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 5, 2024
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Index Outperforms


S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes

By Kyle Rudden

  • New SGX climate-related disclosure requirements based on ISSB’s standards are more stringent than current requirements, most notably regarding mandatory Scope 3 emissions reporting.
  • The implications for S-REITs are significant. Real Estate is one of the most emissions-intensive sectors, and Scope 3 emissions comprise 85-95% of total emissions for real estate companies.
  • Motivated by a strong “business case” for best-in-class climate performance and transparency, many S-REITs are ahead of the curve, evidenced by prominence in climate-related indexes.

Thematic Report : Is It Time to Bet on Indian Large Caps?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • When will large-cap stocks rally? Will large-cap stocks outperform mid-caps and small-caps in 2024?  
  • To answer this we have taken a look at certain fundamental parameters which can help you to make an overall informed decision.
  • Interesting fact on large caps – As of FY22, the top 20 companies in India generate 80% of the total profits generated by India Inc

Ohayo Japan | Oil Cools; Shin-Etsu to Build New Japan Plant

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks closed Monday with minimal changes amid rising interest rates and anticipation of key U.S. inflation data
  • The number of companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime market has decreased by 20% since the market restructuring two years ago
  • Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (4063): Shin-Etsu Chemical will construct its first new plant in Japan in 56 years, aiming to bolster semiconductor supply chains

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as “Satta Bazaar”. 
  • The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections. 
  • The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.

2024 Capital Market Outlook – Seize the Historic Opportunity of the Upcoming Dollar Reset

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • When there are not enough assets in the US to “store” the huge amount of dollar liquidity, the dollar reset would begin once the rate hike cycle peaks.
  • The depreciation of dollar would be inevitable. The US commercial real estate default is drawing near. The climax of the US dollar’s troubles could come in 2026 and 2027.
  • We don’t recommend investors and countries/regions to continue holding all dollar-denominated bonds, but instead switch to commodities and physical assets. We hope that investors can control risks ahead of time.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 5, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • In a volatile week, the US cannabis MSOS ETF gained 1.10%, while the global YOLO ETF climbed 3.92% on continued strength of select Canadian names.
  • YTD, MSOS is +49.70% and YOLO is +39.47%.
  • AYR Wellness (CSE: AYR, OTCQX: AYRWF) finished at +8.47% and had the strongest week among the larger operators. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Index Outperforms

By Water Tower Research

  • The Water Tower Research Office Index posted the best relative performance of the week, up 1.6%, compared with the other indexes, which fell between 1% and 2.8%.
  • Both the Residential Manufacturers (-4.4%) and Home Goods Retailers (-5.1%) had rough weeks on a relatively quiet news front.
  • Bassett reported its 1QFY24 results, missing our revenue and EPS estimates.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan |Worst Week in 2024 Ends on High Note and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan |Worst Week in 2024 Ends on High Note


Ohayo Japan |Worst Week in 2024 Ends on High Note

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks rebounded on Friday, recuperating from the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst session in over a year.
  • Traders scaled back their expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts after US employers added 303,000 jobs in March, signaling a robust labor market
  • Yaskawa Electric anticipates record-high consolidated net profit of 54 billion yen (up 7% YoY) for the fiscal year ending February 2025.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia
  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Lower but Global Economy Remains Strong
  • GEMWeekly (5 Apr 2024): China, South Korea Macro; Xiaomi, TSMC, NIO, SK Hynix


The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia

By Avien Pillay

  • The obesity problem has escalated at an alarming rate in Asia. 
  • Expect strong growth for GLP-1s over the next few years, however, companies that produce next-generation drugs will take the lead.
  • The significant increase in newly approved drugs will result in margin pressure – pricing will be key.

Japan Weekly | Stocks Lower but Global Economy Remains Strong

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks recovered on Friday after a blow-out US jobs report. However, US 10 year yields ended the week up 19bps at 4.4%
  • Japanese stocks sank for a second week as tech stocks came under selling pressure
  • The 10% move in Sumitomo Metal Mining on higher copper prices highlights strength in global economy and perhaps sign of renewed growth in China

GEMWeekly (5 Apr 2024): China, South Korea Macro; Xiaomi, TSMC, NIO, SK Hynix

By Wium Malan, CFA


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US Banks – HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • US Banks – HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 05/04/2024


US Banks – HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

By Daniel Tabbush

  • US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
  • C&I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
  • Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks’ funding costs

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 05/04/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  •  ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Sample analysis at Welchau – Compositional analysis of a gas sample at Welchau shows 92 mole % methane, 4 mole % ethane with low CO2 and no H2S.
  • Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.30 per share: Growth within cashflow – The FY24 guidance reflects a self-funded development and debt repayment programme.
  • While a reduced capital programme, we believe this is a prudent strategy with upside optionality should additional funds from the Bulu sale or higher oil prices materialize.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): A Surprising Winner in the US-China Chip Wars and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • A Surprising Winner in the US-China Chip Wars
  • Ohayo Japan | Market Volatility Ahead of Jobs Report
  • China’s Conventional Carmakers Try to Cash In on Hybrids’ Growing Popularity


A Surprising Winner in the US-China Chip Wars

By Behind the Money

  • Penang is experiencing a new boom in semiconductor chip manufacturing, attracting investment from international companies
  • Malaysia has a 50-year history in the semiconductor supply chain, with a focus on the back end processes such as packaging, assembly, and testing
  • Malaysia is capitalizing on the US-China chip war and emerging as an unexpected winner in the global supply chain, receiving $12.8 billion in foreign direct investment in 2023

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Ohayo Japan | Market Volatility Ahead of Jobs Report

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks experienced significant volatility with the Dow Jones plunging 530.16 points, marking its worst session since March 2023.
  • Foreign investment in Japanese stocks hit a 10-year peak in fiscal 2023, reaching 7.69 trillion yen, driven by the UK, South Korea, and China.
  • Nihon M&A Center Holdings [2127] plans to invest in “Korea M&A Exchange” (KMX), aligning with succession needs in Japan and South Korea.

China’s Conventional Carmakers Try to Cash In on Hybrids’ Growing Popularity

By Caixin Global

  • A number of China’s conventional carmakers have launched or announced new hybrid models in an attempt to capitalize on the growing popularity of the cars as range anxiety persists among customers curious about going electric.
  • State-owned automaker Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Ltd. on Saturday unveiled the Aeolus L7 SUV, which it touted as the first model built with its novel hybrid car technology that allows the vehicle to operate as either a plug-in hybrid or an extended-range hybrid.
  • Plug-in hybrids use batteries to power an electric motor and fossil fuels to power an internal combustion engine. While on the road, they can use fuel, battery power or a mix of the two to run.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): What’s up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • What’s up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!
  • Ohayo Japan | Shares Mixed
  • Will Taiwan Quake Trigger a Shortage?
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/1024 HK/BABA US /JD US /PDD US /241 HK/Douyin/ 3690 HK/ TCOM
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV/ TSLA/300750 CH/9995 HK
  • Energy Focus: Colombia Series (3 of 3) – The Path to Net Zero and Implications for Oil & Gas


What’s up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

By Rikki Malik

  • China’s economic data is continuing to surprise on the upside.
  • Investors are starting to take notice and good news is not being ignored – a sign of a change in sentiment.
  • Economically sensitive and commodity-related sectors a good hunting ground for absolute returns

Ohayo Japan | Shares Mixed

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday as investors pondered Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments alongside robust economic data, hinting at prolonged higher rates
  • Taiwan experienced a significant earthquake originating off its eastern coast, prompting TSMC, the world’s top semiconductor company, to halt operations on some manufacturing equipment
  • Itochu Corp (8001) unveils a robust business plan for fiscal year 2025, targeting increased dividends and share buybacks to raise its total payout ratio

Will Taiwan Quake Trigger a Shortage?

By Jim Handy

  • A major earthquake struck Taiwan on April 3, where 25-30% of the world’s semiconductor wafers are produced
  • Most semiconductor fabs are far away from the earthquake’s epicenter
  • Those companies that have issued statements indicate that damage was slight, but there is still likely to be a shortage, which should boost chip maker profitability through 2024

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/1024 HK/BABA US /JD US /PDD US /241 HK/Douyin/ 3690 HK/ TCOM

By Ying Pan

  • NTES US/1024 HK: The NPPA has released the approval results for domestic online games in March.(+/+)
  • BABA US/JD US/PDD US /1024 HK: Alibaba to start charging live-streaming commissions (+)
  • 241 HK: Alibaba Health updates its guidance for fiscal year 2023-24 and fiscal year 2024-25, introducing Alimama advertising revenue, but it is still not cheap(/)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV/ TSLA/300750 CH/9995 HK

By Eric Wen

  • 1810 HK/1211 HK: Xiaomi SU7 pre order conversion rate estimated to be about 20-30%, reopening the Founder’s Edition to increase the conversion rate(///)
  • 1810 HK: Zeekr 001 exceeded 30,000 in the first month of its launch. Zeekr + SU7 may have the biggest impact on Tesla and BBA(/)
  • 1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV/ TSLA: Su7’s aggressive pricing impacts ICE vehicles, Tesla, Zeekr, while also stimulating overall auto sales (//-/-/-)

Energy Focus: Colombia Series (3 of 3) – The Path to Net Zero and Implications for Oil & Gas

By Water Tower Research

  • The government of Colombia seeks to accelerate the country’s path toward net zero emissions, while investors question the implications for the country’s oil & gas industry.
  • This report is the third in a three-part WTR Energy Focus series on Colombia. It follows Oil & Gas Operators Guiding for Bottom-Up Growth… and Striking a Balance Between Energy Security and Fiscal Stability.
  • Colombia’s natural gas demand will increase due to an energy transition and upstream operators with gas exposure realizing strong gas prices in an undersupplied market (as shown on right).

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Tumble
  • Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24


Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
  • This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
  • Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Tumble

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks closed lower for a second consecutive day as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1% to settle at 39,170.24
  • Workers at Japanese small and midsize manufacturers secured record wage hikes averaging 4.12% this year, influenced by wage increases exceeding 5% at larger firms
  • Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983) reports a 1.5% decline in UNIQLO same-store sales in Japan for March, attributed to cooler temperatures impacting spring clothing sales

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | No Hurry to Cut Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | No Hurry to Cut Rates
  • Mining Monthly: March Edition
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 28, 2024
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 29, 2024


Ohayo Japan | No Hurry to Cut Rates

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mixed to start the second quarter of 2024 amid rising US treasury yields
  • In Japan, 191 companies announced stock splits in the fiscal year, up 60% from last year, aiming to attract retail investors by lowering prices
  • Tokyo Electron Ltd. [8035] will provide an additional 590 billion yen ($3.89 billion) in support to chipmaker Rapidus in fiscal 2024

Mining Monthly: March Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Following a long period of consolidation, gold broke out in March, hitting record highs, and continuing to push higher as we enter April.
  • Silver and copper also had strong months up 10% and 4%, respectively.
  • More notably, we are finally seeing the equities outperform their underlying metal price with the GDX, SIL, and COPX up 22.7%, 21.1% and 19.4%, respectively, significantly outperforming broader markets.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 28, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 1.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.5%).
  • Energy Technology (13.2% of the index) was up by 4.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (56.8% of the index) was up by 1.3%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (24.0% of index) was up 1.0%.
  • Top 10 Performers: KULR, OUST, NKLA, CRGE, SUNW, SX, NVVE, REX, SLDP, EXRO

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 29, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • It was another strong week for cannabis stocks, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF gaining 4.05%.

  • The fund added $3.6 million in inflows last week. The global YOLO ETF climbed 6.22%, as several Canadian companies outperformed.

  • AYR Wellness (CSE: AYR, OTCQX: AYWRF) had the best week, rising 23.64%. CEO David Goubert will be joining us on Higher Exchanges on Thursday. 


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update
  • Ohayo Japan | US PCE In-Line with Expectations
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Mar 22-28, 2024


Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

By William Keating

  • Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing & predict quarterly earnings ahead of time
  • Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter 
  • We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. 

Ohayo Japan | US PCE In-Line with Expectations

By Mark Chadwick

  • The personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.8% YoY, meeting expectations. Compared to the previous month, it also went up by 0.3%, as predicted.
  • The ratio of cashless payments to total consumption in Japan hit a record high of 39.3% in 2023, marking a 3.3 percentage point increase from the previous year
  • Denso announced its decision to divest all Toyota Industries shares; Miura Kogyo announced its acquisition of Cleaver-Brooks, a US-based company  

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Mar 22-28, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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