Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• Wheat Prices declined over a large US harvest forecast, but bargain buying and strong demand over cheaper Russian wheat offered support.
• Corn Prices declined but tighter stocks kept a leash on losses. Weather concerns in Ukraine and the US provided some support, while record high ethanol production suggests strong demand.
• Soy Prices fell the most due to ample global supplies and doubts about Chinese demand. A larger Brazilian crop estimate adds downward pressure.

• The Nikkei lost over 1,000 points this week as political uncertainty impacted markets. 
• In terms of sectors, the semiconductor sector took the brunt of the selling in Japan. Disco, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Screen, Lasertec and Ulvac were amongst the worst performers
• Small cap stocks performed well in Tokyo. SanSan’s share price rose 31% following a strong financial report and positive forward guidance.

• The market had mixed results with SOX +0.51%, Nasdaq -0.7%, SPX -0.78%, and Russell -1.85%. UST10 yields rose 1.07% to 4.2%, and the yen weakened to 157.36. 
• Commodities saw copper -2.6%, nickel -0.2%, and Brent crude -0.34%. Tech stocks varied, with Monolithic Power and Broadcom up while power semis fell. Semiconductors started strong but ended mixed.
• Japanese homebuilders with large US exposures may be strong. 6146 Disco expected to dip. Intuitive Surgical rose 5% on strong 2Q results, which could positively impact 6988 Sysmex. 

• Condor Energies (CDR CN)C: Signing first LNG framework agreement in Kazakhstan – Condor has signed a first LNG Framework Agreement for the utilization of LNG to fuel Kazakhstan’s rail locomotives.
• The agreement was also signed by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway operator of Kazakhstan and Wabtec Corporation, a U.S. based locomotive manufacturer with existing facilities in Kazakhstan.
• KTZ and Wabtec previously signed a memorandum of understanding which includes modernization work to retrofit KTZ’s mainline locomotive fleet for LNG usage and incorporate LNG into new build locomotives.

• SEBI proposes a new asset class to bridge the gap between mutual funds and portfolio management services, requiring a minimum investment of INR 10 lakh.
• The new class targets sophisticated investors, offering higher-risk products and strategies, while ensuring regulatory compliance to curb unauthorized investments.
• This initiative provides a regulated, higher-risk investment option for investors, encouraging innovation in AMCs’ investment strategies while enhancing market depth and investor protection.

• DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
• Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
• Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML’s earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.

• Tech stocks continued their decline on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 0.7% following its worst day since 2022
• Dalton Investments, a US activist fund, acquired a 5% stake in Ezaki Glico, becoming its fourth-largest shareholder.
• TSMC reports that AI chip constraints will persist until 2025, despite exploring new packaging technologies

• Tata Power’s INR 20,000-crore investment in renewables to boosts clean energy
• Zee Entertainment’s $239 million FCCBs plan: Raises funds to bolster financial position
• India to approve INR 70,000-crore warship order: Advanced warships with Indigenous components

• 700 HK: Tencent’s <Civilization Mobile> Officially Launches, Ranks Second on iOS Download Chart.（+）
• JD US/PDD US/BABA US : JD to launch new monthly promo event “Super 18” (/)
• PDD US: PDD announces new requirements for some merchants (+)

• BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）
• LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）
• 1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)

• The Nasdaq Composite plunged over 2.7%, its worst decline since December 2022, as tech stocks faced pressure from potential US export curbs on China and Trump’s comments on Taiwan
• A Boston Consulting Group study found that only 16% of Japanese employees and 31% of managers use generative AI at work, the lowest among major countries.
• Hong Kong-based activist acquired a 5.09% stake in FANCL and aims to provide management advice amidst Kirin takeover

• Baidu announced that the company has seen a rapid uptake in its Robotaxi business on the mainland.
• Baidu is at the forefront of the industry globally with its Fully Self Driving taxis available in more than 10 major cities in China.
• Baidu’s autonomous taxi unit, Apollo Go, has over 100 million kilometers of high-level autonomous safety driving mileage and holds over 5,000 autonomous driving patents.

• Discussion about the potential for Chinese companies to use shell corporations to rent GPUs from American companies
• Mention of a blog post by Sequoia and a report from Goldman Sachs on the challenges of monetizing AI infrastructure
• Skepticism about the return on investment in AI due to lack of clear revenue sources and consumer use cases, particularly with companies like Microsoft and Amazon investing billions in AI projects.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The popularity of <DnF Mobile> and <Arena Breakout> continues to rise. As a result, we are increasing the gross billings estimation for these games by 10% and 15% respectively.
• <Need For Speed Mobile> had an impressive first day, topping the iOS download charts and ranking  15th on the grossing chart. We are raising the expected gross billings by 25%.
• Due to the game’s lifecycle, <Eggy Party> has experienced a slight decline in revenue. Therefore, we are adjusting the forecast down by 10%. Conversely, <Identity V> continues to perform strongly.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 700 points on Tuesday, setting a new all-time closing high
• Neste and Mitsubishi Corporation are forming a strategic partnership to develop renewable chemicals and plastics
• Fujitsu announced a strategic partnership with Cohere Inc., focusing on developing advanced Japanese language models for enterprises

• New records were set in June with land temperatures 1.75°C above average and ocean temperatures 0.98°C soaring above average.
• The Climate Shift Index (CSI) revealed that 4.97 billion people experienced extreme heat from June 16-24, with a significant increase in heat due to climate change.
• June 2024 saw severe precipitation extremes, with drought conditions in places like the western U.S. and heavy rainfall in regions including southern Japan and Bangladesh.

• Government Implements Uniform 5% Tax for Aircraft and Engine Parts to Boost Domestic MRO Industry
• Telangana Government Announces INR 35,000 Crore Farm Loan Waiver Scheme
• Temasek to Invest $10 Billion in India Over Next Three Years

• In last month’s monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rate unchanged at 4.35%.
• According to a Reuters poll, a majority of the economists predicted interest rates to remain unchanged in the current quarter, followed by a 25bps cut to 4.10% in 4Q24.
• Amid possible rate cut talks both in the domestic as well as the U.S. market, we want to take a look at Australian biotech companies.

• PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)
• 1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）
• BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)

• 981 HK/1810 HK: Huawei to launch updated Nova series smartphones (+//)
• BEKE US:China’s residential property prices show narrowing MoM decline in June (+)
• 1810 HK/AAPL US: IDC publishes 2Q24 smartphone sales data (+)

• The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024 (Fig 1).
• The S&P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing the ~8% rise in the XLE and the ~6% rise in the Russell 2000.
• The XLE’s 1H24 performance likely reflects oil prices trading in the $75 – $80/bbl band for much of the first six months of 2024 and natural gas prices which were negatively impacted by mild winter weather. 

• Consumption subsidies in China has been muted in the 2020-2024 period, compared to practices in 2009-2012. We believe it reflects different thought of Chinese government at these two times;
• Past data has suggested that consumption subsidies are effective. We expect consumer subsidies of ~RMB 50bn to be issued in C2H24 to revive consumption;
• An even bigger consumer stimulus of ~RMB 200bn might be issued in 2025, and we believe a consumption tax reform might be one the permanent fixes for the purpose.

• National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) updated rule on Collateral for Margin Requirement in Intraday & F&) Trading. 
• NSE almost trimmed 1000 Securities acceptable as collateral, leaving only about 730 counters for F&O and intraday traders to pledge for margin trading facility.
• New Rules will be applicable step by step till Nov-24.

• US stocks gained Monday as an attempted assassination on Donald Trump boosted his election chances
• Global smartphone shipments rose 6.5% year-over-year in Q2 2024, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth
• Sony aims to transform its gaming IPs into high-quality TV and cinema content, leveraging its skilled personnel and technology

• We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
• Morphic Holding, Inc. (MORF) agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) for $3.2 billion or $57/share in cash, with value primarily driven by lead drug MORF-057, an oral α4β7 integrin inhibitor, in Phase 2s for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). MORF-057 looks to compete against injectable biologics in the large UC and Crohn’s markets, aiming for similar efficacy, better safety, and oral convenience.
• Morphic’s novel drug shares the same target as Takeda’s Entyvio, a successful anti-α4β7 antibody. MORF was up 75% last Monday.

• Furniture and furnishings stocks were nicely higher in the week, as the market rotated from larger, growth-oriented, and AI-driven stocks to smaller-cap, value-oriented issues.
• The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index (+4.4%), Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (+8.3%), and Home Goods Retailers Index (+8.1%) all had strong showings, reflecting the gains seen in the broader Russell 2000 (+5.4%).
• The Mass Retailers Index fell (-0.4%), in line with the broader moves away from large-cap, technology-oriented stocks. 

• It was a good week for cannabis stocks, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF gaining 6.15% and global YOLO increasing 5.15%.
• The Cannabist (NEO: CBST, OTCQX: CBSTF) +16.67% was the biggest winner among the larger MSOs, while MariMed (CSE: MRMD, OTCQX: MRMD) -10.53% lost the most.
• Politics continue to drive prices and cannabis investors are showing that they prefer a democratic ticket headlined by Vice President Harris rather than President Biden.

• The Dow closed above 40,000 for only the second time, finishing just over two points shy of a record high
• Mitsui & Co will invest 500 billion yen to raise its domestic data center assets to 1 trillion yen by 2030
• SoftBank acquired Bristol-based AI firm Graphcore Ltd, although the financial terms were undisclosed. Graphcore specializes in AI chips to rival Nvidia

• The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
• Macro data points: Chinese CPI, PPI, imports, and exports data.
• Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK), SAIC Motor (600104 CH), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

• I’m calling a very definitive bottom in Automotive semiconductor stocks. I’ve been mixed on automotive for quite some time, and as recently as April, I was bearish.
• It all started when China decided to dump cheap EVs globally, which made me extremely concerned about Western automotive companies.
• Hell, I’ve been bearish on WOLF since March of 2023 and wrote not one but two notes about how Silicon Carbide looks like it’s in a rough spot.

• News out of Kazakhstan regarding increased mineral extraction tax for uranium mining
• Impact on global uranium supply and term pricing
• Uranium equities in Australia experiencing significant price increase

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• June witnessed heavy selling across major US crops across corn, beans and wheat with wheat taking the biggest hit.
• Grain prices have been bearish on favorable supply. The adage of ‘rain makes grain’ has changed this summer to ‘grain falls like rain’ ahead of WASDE report.
• Positive revisions are expected for major Wheat exporting countries US & Russia, even as EU reels from adverse weather. US grain forecasts will follow suit and outweigh concerns

• Vodafone Idea requests Rs.24,747 crore bank guarantee waiver for spectrum payments from DoT
• Brookfield invests $550 million in Tamil Nadu’s Leap Green Energy for renewable growth
• Adani Ports commits $1.2 billion to Vizhinjam, Kerala’s future container transshipment hub

• PetroTal (PTAL LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: Unrestricted cash position increased by >30% during the last quarter – 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d.
• A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d.
• All regulatory approvals for the pilot to sell 100 mbbl of production through Ecuador have now been secured.

• Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
• Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) dives into Korea’s coffee war zone with a new acquisition. But with expensive funding, selling cheap coffee isn’t so cool anymore.
• Tiger Balm, the beloved pain relief elixir, is under valued in its holding-company, HawPar Corp . In an aging world full of aches, it’s time to let Tiger Balm roar!

• In Real-time market (RTM) Power volumes surged by 20% in June, reflecting the need for immediate power delivery during sudden high-demand periods.
• Indian Govt has extended the blending period of imported coal to Jun-24 to meet the rising demand. 
• Rising Power demand will create a lot more opportunity across value chain including transformers, cables, smart meters etc.

• US stocks fell on Thursday as tech investors reacted to a key inflation report showing a surprising monthly decline in consumer prices
• The yen surged over 2% against the dollar following the US inflation report and speculation of Japanese market intervention
• Fast Retailing, owner of Uniqlo, reported a net profit of 116.9 billion yen ($720 million) for the quarter ending in May, a 37.4% increase

• PDD US/META US: Temu continues to be the most downloaded app in the US (+)
• PDD US : PDD launching new ad-tool to replace previous tools (+)
• 700 HK: Tencent’s Third-Person Shooter Game <Synced> Announces Termination of Service on September 9th (-)

• HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans
• US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE
• Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher

• LKNCY US: Luckin Coffee Opens Its 20,000th Store . (+)
• 1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK:July holiday saw normal seasonliaty in EV sales, Xiaomi ramp up nicely（///////）
• XPEV US: Details of new refreshed Xpeng sedan P7 revealed (+)

• This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
• We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
• We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

• US stocks soared to fresh all-time highs on Wednesday, buoyed by Jerome Powell’s remarks on Capitol Hill
• Uniqlo is focusing on larger flagship stores in Europe to enhance brand visibility and boost sales. Fast Retailing reports today
• Yokohama Rubber is negotiating to acquire Goodyear Tire & Rubber’s off-road tire unit for over $1 billion

• ONGC plans a Rs 2 lakh crore investment for net-zero carbon emissions by 2038, boosting shares
• Jupiter Wagons’ shares dropped 3% following the announcement of a Qualified Institutional Placement
• India’s defence exports surged 32.5% to Rs.21,083 crore in FY24, reflecting robust growth and global reach

• There have been various rumors regarding China’s consumption in general and e-commerce trend in particular. Two of the recent ones are weak 618 sales and keep-it-refunds;
• While we are in general pessimistic on Chinese consumption in the medium term, government subsidies and consumption vouchers are helping to keep consumption, especially e-commerce, going in healthy pace;
• Our TOP PICKS are Alibaba and PDD, both trading at attractive valuations of 7.4x and 9.5x CY24 P/E. Solid June consumption, positive 3Q outlook, and EPS expansion are upcoming catalysts.

• In the vibrant Philippine gaming industry, we found one casino operator particularly poised to capitalize on the growth story.

• With higher growth rates, less competition, and lower taxes than Macau, now may be an opportune moment for value investors looking to cash in on the gaming boom.

• With a strategic focus on expansion, the operator opened another casino this year in Quezon City, which looks set to be a major driver of group revenues over the few years should it follow a similar growth trajectory to the group’s flagship property in Entertainment City.

• We expect e-commerce to have a strong 2H24, allowing the sector to meet or exceed 11% growth expectations 2024 as Amazon’s same-day/one-day initiatives appear to be reviving the secular shift from brick-and-mortar retailers.
• We continue to watch other secular adoption trends, including mobile commerce (m- commerce) and buy now, pay later (BNPL), which should also help drive growth.
• Despite some signs of a slowing economy/consumer, digital advertising should have a solid 2H24 and meet/slightly exceed 9% growth expectations for the year.

• Factors that are accelerating the electricity consumption outlook include: the rise of datacenters and AI (see figure on top right), electrification of everything from vehicles to buildings and oil & gas infrastructure, onshoring and reshoring of industry, more severe weather patterns, and clean hydrogen (electrolysis).
• Growing Backlog of Power Projects There are a significant number of new power generation projects that are coming online and that have been proposed in the US.
• However, growing backlogs suggest that the projects may not be getting approved as fast as developers would like to see (see Figure 5).