Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On Friday, the S&P 500 edged down 0.16% to close at 5,464.62, with Nvidia leading losses for a second consecutive day
Researchers discovered vast mineral resources, including 75 years of Japan’s cobalt needs and 11 years of nickel, near Minami-Torishima island
Japan’s the deficit for digital-related services more than doubled since 2015 to 5.35 trillion yen ($33.7 billion) last year.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | S&P 500 Continues Longest Stretch Without Significant Volatility Since GFC. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | S&P 500 Continues Longest Stretch Without Significant Volatility Since GFC.
EU’s Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Japan Weekly | S&P 500 Continues Longest Stretch Without Significant Volatility Since GFC.

Despite mixed economic signals, markets showed resilience. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the DJIA added 1.5%, and the Nasdaq remained flat.
The Japanese yen continued its decline against major currencies, falling below 159 per USD, nearing levels last seen in April before intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance
Fancl’s (4921) stock surged 19% to ¥2,720 following Kirin Holdings’ announcement to acquire it as a wholly owned subsidiary

EU’s Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Contrary to battery, Chinese renewable energy companies have largely been absent in EU’s solar capacity buildup.We believe the main reason is supply chain structure differences;
One year after we tallied the capacity in C2Q23,11% of the tallied capacity have been cancelled, but another 66% more have been added, among which, however,no ingot or polysilicon projects;
Wacker Chemie’s 39GW polysilicon project needs to supply ~10GW of ingot and wafer,~13GW of cell and ~52GW of module, comparing to EU’s 2023 installation of only 56GW, which is insufficient.

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Jun 22

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Samsung and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space…
Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/06/2024

Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space…

By William Keating

Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024
Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages
If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

By Victor Galliano

Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/06/2024

By Auctus Advisors

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C: target price of £0.65 per share: Flow rate of high impact horizontal well above expectations – The first CN Horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) from the Carrizales Norte B pad has been on production since 14 June at a rate of 3,150 bbl/d (~1.6 mbbl/d net) with less than 1% water cut while still recovering load fluid.
The flow rate is currently constrained with the ESP operating on the minimum setting.
The flow rate is above expectations.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Market Reversal? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Market Reversal?
[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024
#15 India Insight: SBI Fund Raise, 15.4 GW Coal Power, Trade with Europe
[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/TCOM US/3690 HK

Ohayo Japan | Market Reversal?

The S&P 500 pulled back 0.25% on Thursday, ending at 5,473.17 after briefly surpassing the 5,500 mark for the first time
Despite significant currency interventions by Japan, the yen continues to weaken against non-U.S. currencies, hitting historic lows against the Swiss franc & British pound
Chugoku Electric Power Co. joined the “Floating Offshore Wind Technology Research Association” to advance large-scale floating offshore wind farms

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate decreased month-on-month for two consecutive periods.(+)
ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP: Congressmen put forward bill to block purchase of certain China made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy recipients (-/+/+/+)
LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK: New energy vehicles LI continues to lead in the 24th week of 2024 (///////)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

#15 India Insight: SBI Fund Raise, 15.4 GW Coal Power, Trade with Europe

India will add 15.4 GW of coal power by March 2025
New deep-water port to boost trade with Europe, completed by 2029
Funds to strengthen capital base and support growth, raised in FY25

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/TCOM US/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

700 HK: <DnF Mobile> Pulls Game from Certain Chinese Android App Stores Over Revenue Share Dispute(/)
BILI US: Bilibili’s <Three Kingdoms: MDTX> continues strong performance five days after launch(+)
TCOM US/3690 HK: Chengdu Issues RMB 30mn in Tourism Consumption Vouchers to Promote Tourism Spending.(+/+)

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Jun 20

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story
Ohayo Japan | Lower Open After US Holiday
#21Business Buzz: ABD $180 Mn IPO, State Owned Banks Sell Bonds, K29 Secures $120 Mn Loan

Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story

By David Blennerhassett

When property advisors (JLL, Knight Frank, CBRE etc) debate the bottom of Hong Kong’s office/retail market, such commentary is often infused with cautious optimism.
And for good reason, as vacancies increase, and rents soften.
Recent press articles and anecdotal evidence suggests market uncertainty lingers, prompting landlords to (further) assess their stance on rents.

Ohayo Japan | Lower Open After US Holiday

US Stock market closed for holiday; Nikkei Futures close at a 0.5% discount to cash suggesting a lower open.
Approximately 900 listed companies, or 40%, plan to raise dividends in the fiscal year ending March 2025, totaling an 8% increase to about ¥18 trillion.
Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda saw a drop in shareholder support, falling to 72% from 85% last year

#21Business Buzz: ABD $180 Mn IPO, State Owned Banks Sell Bonds, K29 Secures $120 Mn Loan

Indian Whiskey Maker Allied Blenders & Distillers Sets Terms for $180 Million IPO
Indian State-Owned Banks Sell Bonds as Foreign Demand Surges Ahead of Index Inclusion
K92 Mining Expands Loan and Offtake Agreement with Trafigura to Advance Kainantu Operations

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Brain Science – An Opportunity or a Trap? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Brain Science – An Opportunity or a Trap?
Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Surges
#16 India Insight: Hyundai IPO, Vedanta Growth, HFCL Exemption
#20Business Buzz: GamesStop Shares Fell, Nvidia Insider Selling, Berkshire Reduces Stake in BYD
[Blue Lotus Daily]:981HK/LKNCY US/BGNE US
US Banks – Buy Now, Default Later?
[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

Brain Science – An Opportunity or a Trap?

By Vincy Ip

Brain disorders, including various neurological and mental diseases, are the hidden danger with the largest social burden among all diseases.
With strong government support across the globe and accelerating private financing, we identify four key areas of investment opportunities in brain science, including neurotherapeutics, neurodiagnostics, neurosurgery, and brain-computer interface (BCI).
Even though the concept of BCI looks promising, its scalability, application, and monetisation potential remain uncertain in the near term and hence the invesmtent risks would be high.

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Surges

U.S. stocks edged higher with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite setting new records before the Juneteenth holiday break
Toyota’s shareholders reelected all board members, including Chairman Akio Toyoda, despite advisory firms’ opposition due to recent test irregularities
Nintendo announced that “The Super Mario Bros. Movie 2” will premiere in Japan on April 24, 2026, following its US debut on April 3, 2026

#16 India Insight: Hyundai IPO, Vedanta Growth, HFCL Exemption

Hyundai Motor India files for India’s largest IPO, faces supply chain risks
Vedanta’s growth initiatives aim to boost EBITDA to $10 billion
HFCL, India’s only firm exempt from European optical fiber anti-dumping duties

#20Business Buzz: GamesStop Shares Fell, Nvidia Insider Selling, Berkshire Reduces Stake in BYD

GameStop shares fell 12.1% after a disappointing annual shareholder meeting
Nvidia insiders sell over $700 million in shares as stock soars 164%
Blackstone bids $1.74 billion to acquire Japanese digital comic distributor Infocom

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981HK/LKNCY US/BGNE US

981HK: Huawei Wuhu Supercomputing Center opens services, which benefits SMIC. (/)
LKNCY US: Cotti Coffee Changes Product Formulas and Supply Chain, Ramps up Promotion for Fruit Coffee (-)
BGNE US: AstraZeneca Calquence Phase III results set up competition for BeiGene’s Zanubrutinib

US Banks – Buy Now, Default Later?

By Daniel Tabbush

Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The ‘buy now, pay later’ industry is fairly new, Apple’s new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

By Ying Pan

PDD US/BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/VIPS US: NBS publishes data social retail consumption data for May 2024 (+/+/+/+/-)
700 HK: <Need for Speed Mobile> to officially launch on July 11, with pre-registration surpassed 26 mn (+)
CPNG/BABA/TEMU/139480.KR:Coupang told to stop favoring its own products in its algorithm (-/+/+)

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Jun 18

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | New Records and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | New Records
How to Stimulate China’s Consumption, Part III
Online Game Monitor: June 2-16, 2024
INDUSTRY REPORT – Furniture/Furnishings Weekly
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 14, 2024

Ohayo Japan | New Records

Record Highs: The S&P 500 hit a new record, rising 0.77% to 5,473.23, driven by optimism in economic data and potential rate cuts.
Tech Surge: Major tech stocks, including Apple (+2%) and Microsoft (+1%), led gains. Broadcom surged 5.4%, while Nvidia edged slightly lower despite a record high.
Investment Optimism: Citigroup raised its S&P 500 year-end forecast to 5,600, anticipating continued tech strength and earnings growth, amid cautious hedge fund positioning and potential volatility ahead.

How to Stimulate China’s Consumption, Part III

By Andy Fu

As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;
Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption;
However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.

Online Game Monitor: June 2-16, 2024

By Stan Zhao

Bilibili’s <Three Kingdom: MDTX> achieved excellent results on its release day, leading us to raise our AGB estimation by ~20%.
Tencent’s <Naruto> and <Fight of Golden Spatula> have seen a rapid rise in player reputation due to the success of recent events and operations, leading us to raise their estimates;
NetEase’s <Justice Mobile> has experienced a decline in gross billings due to the game’s lifespan, while pre-registrations for <Where Winds Meet> have reached a new high. We adjusted accordingly.

INDUSTRY REPORT – Furniture/Furnishings Weekly

By Water Tower Research

Furniture/furnishings stocks trailed the broader market.
The Water Tower Research Commercial/Contract Index (-1.7%), Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (-2.0%), and Home Goods Retailers Index (-2.0%) trailed the broader market indexes and the Mass Retailers Index (-1.3% to +1.3%) last week.
LOVE 1Q25 paints a picture of continued weakness in residential furniture even as the company appears to be continuing to gain share.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 14, 2024

By Water Tower Research

This week, MSOS dropped 9.34%, while YOLO fell 4.46%. All the top 10 (by enterprise value) MSOs finished down.
Verano (NEO: VRNO, OTCQX: VRNOF) -17.11% and Cannabist (NEO: CBST, OTCQX: CBSTF) -14.17% felt the most pain. Jushi (CSE: JUSH, OTCQX: JUSHF) held up best, losing 5.17% over the past five sessions.
MSOS peaked 1,223 days ago on February 10, 2021, and is in a -87.31% drawdown. .

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | A Quieter Week Ahead and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | A Quieter Week Ahead
US Bank HFD – CRE Loans Down A Lot, CRE Loan Growth Can Worsen Much More, Smaller Banks Exposed

Ohayo Japan | A Quieter Week Ahead

Hopes of easing inflation supported a weekly rise of 1.6% for the S&P 500 and 3.2% for the Nasdaq.
Sakana AI, founded in July 2023 by ex-Google researchers and a former Japanese official, is set to raise $125 million at a $1.1 billion valuation, becoming Japan’s fastest unicorn
Kirin Holdings plans to acquire additional shares of FANCL Corporation through a tender offer and share warrants to make FANCL a wholly-owned subsidiary

US Bank HFD – CRE Loans Down A Lot, CRE Loan Growth Can Worsen Much More, Smaller Banks Exposed

By Daniel Tabbush

New HFD shows CRE loan decline in the most recent week sizeable, a greater decline than in any week so far this year
Risk aversion and demand will be drivers, and still CRE loan growth now at -2.4% YoY can see this rate of contraction far lower
Credit costs are the key concern for banks (risk weightings can too be an issue), where smaller banks are infinitely more exposed than the largest US banks

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Jun 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China’s Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn’t ASML and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

China’s Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn’t ASML
EU’s Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part I
Global Credit Growth – Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine
Japan Weekly | Fancl, Monotaro, Taiyo Yuden, Toho
#19Business Buzz: BOJ Yen Drop, Tesla’s $56B Pay Deal, G7’s Ukraine Support
#15 India Insight: Sensex Crossed Hongkong Market, Vodafone to Sell Indus Stake, Adani Ent
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/06/2024

China’s Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn’t ASML

By Robert McKay

In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI’s scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China.

EU’s Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part I

About a year ago, we started collating battery investments in the European Union. At the time we conclude between 1/4 to a 1/3 were originated from China;
A year later, we revisited and found the ratio has increased. With the latest EU tariff on China-made EV’s, we expect Chinese capacity buildups to quicken;
A total of 1,742 GWh of projects are supposed to go online in EU countries, representing investment of US$150bn, among which China related GWh and investment is ~25%.

Global Credit Growth – Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

By Daniel Tabbush

Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year.
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.

Japan Weekly | Fancl, Monotaro, Taiyo Yuden, Toho

The US labor market showed resilience with 272,000 jobs added in May, well above the forecasted 180,000
Fancl’s share price surged by 15% following a report by the Nikkei indicating that Kirin Holdings plans to acquire the company
Toho’s share price fell by 10% this week, driven by disappointing revenue figures for May

#19Business Buzz: BOJ Yen Drop, Tesla’s $56B Pay Deal, G7’s Ukraine Support

Yen weakened 0.8% while bond futures surged after BOJ postponed debt-buying details
Shareholders endorsed Musk’s compensation and Tesla’s incorporation shift to Texas
G7 to use profits from frozen Russian assets for $50 billion in loans to Ukraine

#15 India Insight: Sensex Crossed Hongkong Market, Vodafone to Sell Indus Stake, Adani Ent

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY) Surpasses Hong Kong to Become Fourth-Highest Equity Market Globally.
Vodafone to Sell Entire Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN) Stake Worth $2.3 Billion via Block Deals
State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) Completes Rs 830 Crore Bond Issuance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/06/2024

By Auctus Advisors

Chariot (CHAR LN) C: target price of £0.50 per share: High impact well offshore Morocco on track to spud in August – The FY23 financials were in line with our forecasts.
The high impact Anchois East well is expected to spud in August.
A drilling success could increase the size of Anchois to over 1 tcf (300 bcf net to Chariot).

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Jun 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shareholders Say ‘Yes’ to Mega-Comp Package! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shareholders Say ‘Yes’ to Mega-Comp Package!
Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good
How to Stimulate China’s Consumption, Part II
#14 India Insight: Ambuja Acquiring Penna, Vodafone Idea & Purvankara Fundraise, L&T, GST
#18Business Buzz: JPMorgan’s $500M Biotech Fund, China’s Car Sales, Tesla’s Pay Package Approval
[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/300750 SZ/BEKE US/LKNCY US
[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA /9699HK/DADA/JD/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/3690 HK/NTES/TCOM/ATAT

Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shareholders Say ‘Yes’ to Mega-Comp Package!

Adobe shares surged 16% in after-hours trading following better-than-expected Q2 results.
Tesla shareholders ratified CEO Elon Musk’s contentious 2018 pay plan at the annual meeting in Austin
Kirin Holdings plans to acquire the remaining 67% of Fancl, aiming to fully own the skincare and supplement company amid declining beer sales.

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

By William Keating

Global semi sales for April ’24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM
WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast
We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high & their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.

How to Stimulate China’s Consumption, Part II

By Andy Fu

Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption;
The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;
Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal.

#14 India Insight: Ambuja Acquiring Penna, Vodafone Idea & Purvankara Fundraise, L&T, GST

Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) to Acquire Penna Cement for Rs. 10,422 Crore
Puravankara Projects (PURVA IN) raising 1000 Cr via QIP and Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) approved 2458 Cr Preferential allotment
Upcoming 53rd GST Council Meeting to Address Key Taxation Issues

#18Business Buzz: JPMorgan’s $500M Biotech Fund, China’s Car Sales, Tesla’s Pay Package Approval

JPMorgan’s new fund focuses on obesity treatments, especially popular yet scarce GLP-1 drugs
Chinese automakers sold more cars than US brands, marking a significant market shift
Tesla shares rise as Musk anticipates shareholder approval of his controversial $56 billion pay package

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/300750 SZ/BEKE US/LKNCY US