Thailand

In this briefing:

1. Thailand: The Sandbox
2. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater
3. UTP (UTP TB): Continued Gain from Tight Global Paper Supply
4. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Dithering Dangerously, Digital Transformation, and Breadtalk
5. TPCH (TPCH TB): Biomass Power Value Play

1. Thailand: The Sandbox

2. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater

Small caps have an easier time scaling up in good times, but can get hit much harder by liquidity in the bear markets. Anyway, it’s still good to check how some of the better-know small cap names like MEGA and Eastwater even if they are not doing particularly well.

Here’s some highlights:

• MEGA hasn’t done quite as well. Their earnings growth has slowed to under 10% this year despite an average of 19% between 2014 and 2017. It doesn’t seem like there’s anything wrong with the business model or even execution, just Law of Large Numbers and running out of near-term opportunities.
• Interestingly, the company’s biggest market outside ASEAN is Africa (eg. Nigeria, Ethiopia), which accounts for 12% of their branded product revenues, and that’s declined 4.2%, hence dragging down the company’s performance.
• East Water realized healthy and stable gross margin of 50% and ROE of 10.9% while maintaining a strong credit rating of A+, allowing them to finance aggressive capex cheaply.
• The company generates over half of its revenues from raw water, which is more profitable than tap and industrial, and has had a recent change in strategic shareholder from EGCO to Manila Water.

3. UTP (UTP TB): Continued Gain from Tight Global Paper Supply

• Strong long-term sales growth, share price is less volatile, and solid short-term earnings momentum relative to its sector
• Sales growth for UTP’s cardboard paper and packaging used for corrugated boxes should be supported by an ongoing 20% ramp-up in production to 20,000 tons/month on tight global supply conditions
• Strong demand and efficiency improvements on older cardboard paper-making equipment has expanded margins, operating margin expanded by 12 ppts in 9M18 YoY
• UTP has shown solid improvements in asset turnover while also improving its net margin
• Risk: Chinese moves to ramp up paper supply again

* Consensus Estimates

4. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Dithering Dangerously, Digital Transformation, and Breadtalk

Macro Insights

In his appropriately named insight, The Year of Dithering Dangerously, Kevin O’Rourke suggests that President Joko Widodo, cabinet-level policymakers and the broader political elite are neglecting the imperative for economic reform at a particularly critical juncture. 

In Campaign Sparring Re: Islam / KPK on PLN / Gov’t Wants Unicorn IPOs / Loan Growth Uptick / WB on FDI, Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most important political developments over the past week. 

In his Insight Indonesia: All Together NowNicholas Chia provides up with an interesting update on the Indonesian Economy. 

In Thailand: Wobbles En Route to Slower but Still-Sustained Growth Momentum, Jason Tan writes on Thailand following some faltering GDP numbers. 

In Political Pit Stop (December): First Month of Campaigning, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on the state of political activity over the last month in Thailand as campaigning begins for the upcoming election. 

In The Philippines: Reforms Under a Political Cloud; BSP May Turn DovishManu Bhaskaran comments on recent economic developments in the Philippines. 

In Philippine Monetary Policy: Relief from No Rate Hike, Jun Trinidad comments on the economic outlook in the Philippines following a lack of action at BSP’s last policy meeting. 

In Singapore-Malaysia Tensions Rise Anew in Airspace and Maritime Disputes, Jason Tan comments on the resurgence of political tension between Singapore and Malaysia. 

Equity Bottom-Up Insights

In SCMA (SCMA IJ) – Biting the Digital Bullet, former Jakartan and CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh circles back to leading Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) following a conversation with management focusing on its digital aspirations. 

In BreadTalk (BREAD SP): As Din Tai Fung Opens in London, CEO Puts Out Target to Double Mkt Cap, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Breadtalk (BREAD SP) following the opening of Din Tai Fung in London. 

In MER (MER PM): Solid Fundamentals at No. 1 Philippine Power Producer, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA  works his magic on this leading Philippines utility company. 

In PTT (PTT TB): Planned Listing of Retail Business in 2019, Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA circles back to PTT PCL (PTT TB) following the announcement of its intention to list its retail business.  

In SCC (SCC TB): Potential Beneficiary from US-China Trade War, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Siam Cement (SCC TB) as a potential beneficiary souring US-China relations. 

In PLANB: Solid Outlook for Music Marketing Business Under BNK48 Office, our friends at Country Group revisit media player Plan B Media (PLANB TB) in Thailand. 

In SEAFCO (SEAFCO TB): Solid Backlog, Solid Profitability, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA takes a close look at this leading construction player. 

In SVI (SVI TB): Production Capacity Expansion Should Continue to Pay Off, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA comments on electronics manufacturing company and takes a positive view. 

Sector and Thematic Insights

In a fascinating Insight, How the Mighty Fall…Or Should That Be A “Who Will”? Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA refers to Jim Collins’ book ‘How the Mighty Fall’ and highlights some interesting pitfalls that see some great companies decline or even collapse and follows them in stages. He applied the approach to companies in Thailand. 

In Revisiting the Renewable Energy Space, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA checks out two stocks in the Thai renewable energy space. 

In Snippets #17: PTTEP’s Winner Curse, Huawei’s Crisis, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA picks out the most interesting pieces of breaking news over the past week or so in Thailand. 

5. TPCH (TPCH TB): Biomass Power Value Play

• Strong long-term earnings growth, good growth in core profit, and relatively strong analyst recommendation relative to its sector
• As Thailand’s largest independent biomass power producer, TPCH is well-positioned to take advantage of government moves to diversify the country’s energy mix
• Longer-term earnings to be supported by ongoing capacity expansions, including the waste-to-energy project in Nonthaburi planned for 2019
• Trades below Thai Utilities at 19CE* 9.7x PE and offers double-digit EPS growth while the sector is expected to contract
• Risks: Higher feedstock costs as well as project delays and/or issues

* Consensus Estimates

In this briefing:

1. Sathorn Series M: TMB-Thanachart Courtship
2. CKP (CKP TB): Powerful Expansion to Drive Earnings Growth
3. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019
4. Company Visits: The Best of November/December 2018
5. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

1. Sathorn Series M: TMB-Thanachart Courtship

Right before Christmas, the Ministry of Finance confirms that both Thanachart and KTB were in talks to merge with TMB. We note that:

• Considering that KTB’s earlier courtship failed once, it is more likely, but by no means guaranteed, for the deal with Thanachart to happen.
• A deal with Thanachart would leave TMB as the acquirer rather than the target. Thanachart’s management has better track record than TMB.
• Both banks have undergone extensive deals before this one: 1) TMB acquired DBS Thai Danu and IFCT; and 2) Thanachart engineered an acquisition of the much bigger, but struggling, SCIB.
• A merger between the two would still leave them smaller than BAY and not really change the bank rankings, but it would give TMB a bigger presence in asset management and hire-purchase finance and an re-entry into the securities business.

2. CKP (CKP TB): Powerful Expansion to Drive Earnings Growth

• Strong net profit momentum and more attractive to analysts relative to its sector
• Higher power demand trend from new industrial consumers should continue supporting electricity sales, revenue rose 31% YoY in 3Q18
• Large capacity expansion from Xayaburi hydroelectric power plant in Laos with expected commercial operation date (COD) in 4Q19 to more than double CKP’s current effective capacity
• Trades above ASEAN Utilities at 19CE* 45.1x PE but offers great EPS growth in a sector that is expected to remain flattish
• Risk: Delays for new plants, change in government regulation

* Consensus Estimates

3. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019

In a follow up to my note from last year Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018 I again look at my stock ideas that have worked out in 2018, those that have not and those where the verdict is still pending.

Last year I provided 5 high conviction ideas and here is their performance in a brutal year for Asian Stock Markets:

4 out of 5 had a positive performance.

Below I will make a new attempt to provide five high conviction ideas going into 2019.

4. Company Visits: The Best of November/December 2018

During this quarter, we visited 13 companies and have to admit the average quality has improved. Amongst these, there were four stocks that impressed us the most, and the Oscars go to…

• SSP acheiving profit growth in excess of 20% in the backdrop of Thai economic headwinds and Trumpian trade wars by expanding into countries unaffected by both issues.
• Amata VN capitalizing on the shift from locations with rising labor costs (eg Thailand, China) to Vietnam, which has more than a few geographic and demographic advantages.
• Gunkul, arguably Thailand’s hottest renewable play at the moment delivering outsized long-term growth in solar/wind space as well as a promising solar roof game plan.
• TIGER, an aggressive and small construction company that has only IPO’d for less than a quarter and is already highlighting aggressive growth plans.

5. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

• US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive trends on employment and inflation.
• Russia: Unexpected 25 bps rate hike in the face of higher inflation in Nov. Watch for impact of lower oil prices in coming quarters.
• Turkey: Economic developments remain negative. The outlook for retail sales is poor as the economy in general is faltering.
• Indonesia: Trade deficit in November. Exports down 3.3%; imports up 11.68%. This disappointing performance could be the beginning of a trend.

In this briefing:

1. SVI (SVI TB): Production Capacity Expansion Should Continue to Pay Off
2. How the Mighty Fall…Or Should That Be A “Who Will”?

1. SVI (SVI TB): Production Capacity Expansion Should Continue to Pay Off

• More attractive to analysts, solid short-term earnings momentum, and strong stock price momentum relative to its sector
• Production capacity expansion at Cambodia and Slovakia plants should continue to stimulate sales which was up by 32% in 3Q18 YoY
• SVI’s focus on industrial customers means less volatile sales, and the long selling cycle works against new competitors
• Trades slightly lower at 19CE* PEG ratio of 0.7 compared to Thai Info Tech at 0.8 PEG and SVI is net cash
• Risks: Swift changes in technology

* Consensus Estimates

2. How the Mighty Fall…Or Should That Be A “Who Will”?

Jim Collins‘ book ‘How the Mighty Fall’ highlights some interesting pitfalls that great companies decline or even collapse and follows them in stages. For our purpose as investors or market watchers, the important thing is figuring out how (or rather which company) these principles apply to. In this review, we ignore the stages (since they are more likely to happen  in the future) and instead look out some Thai companies where we are starting to see these vulnerabilities or symptoms.

• Overreach is arguably the biggest symptom. Diversifying into areas they don’t take seriously or have no expertise in. Sometimes, it just means having way too many products, which could be the case for BJC or Jaymart.
• Blame game culture. When companies dig out reasons to allocate blame rather than find solutions, it’s a big red flag. Speaking to folks that have left the firm, this sounds a lot like TMB.
• Denial of the obvious. Collins’ best example for this was how Motorola ignored all the warnings about Iridium’s failures. When we visited Finansia Syrus, we couldn’t help feeling that they were doubling down rather than finding a more realistic solution.
• Overconfidence is the flaw most likely to come to great companies. Watch out for companies that highlight all the positives and skim over the risks. Our meeting with Asia Plus sounded a bit too good to be true.

Companies that undergo decline may recover at some point, but it’s good for investors to be aware of them so you know what kind of risk you are buying into.

In this briefing:

1. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships
2. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War
3. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly
4. Thailand: The Sandbox
5. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater

1. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships

• We’ve reviewed 10 companies in the sector. Of those, three are the consensus favorites of our Tokyo based panel of industry, financial and economics observers of the IR initiative over many years.
• Based on pachinko alone, the stocks of these companies are fully valued. Based on potential tailwind from a license award within 6 months, they could be vastly undervalued.
• Each of the three noted here brings strength to a bid less based on financials than corporate focus, outlook and experience in the field.

2. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War

• Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
• But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
• After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 

3. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly

SEMI, the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chain for the electronics industry, published three different forecasts for wafer fab equipment (WFE) sales in the past week. While the forecasts differ in approach and detail, they all agree on one thing, WFE revenues are continuing to fall and the outlook for 2019 is sharply down on previous estimates.

Specifically, Q4 2018 WFE revenues are set to decline 20.8% or $3.3 billion QoQ and the forecast which had just six months ago predicted 7% growth in 2019 is now calling for an 8% decline next year. 

These latest forecasts cast a dark shadow over the predictions of the leading WFE manufacturers that H1 2019 would be stronger than H2 2018 and we anticipate a strong downward revision of forward guidance in the upcoming earnings season. 

There may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon however as SEMI forecasts a strong rebound in the second half of 2019 leading to a return to growth of ~20% in 2020. Let’s see.  

4. Thailand: The Sandbox

5. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater

Small caps have an easier time scaling up in good times, but can get hit much harder by liquidity in the bear markets. Anyway, it’s still good to check how some of the better-know small cap names like MEGA and Eastwater even if they are not doing particularly well.

Here’s some highlights:

• MEGA hasn’t done quite as well. Their earnings growth has slowed to under 10% this year despite an average of 19% between 2014 and 2017. It doesn’t seem like there’s anything wrong with the business model or even execution, just Law of Large Numbers and running out of near-term opportunities.
• Interestingly, the company’s biggest market outside ASEAN is Africa (eg. Nigeria, Ethiopia), which accounts for 12% of their branded product revenues, and that’s declined 4.2%, hence dragging down the company’s performance.
• East Water realized healthy and stable gross margin of 50% and ROE of 10.9% while maintaining a strong credit rating of A+, allowing them to finance aggressive capex cheaply.
• The company generates over half of its revenues from raw water, which is more profitable than tap and industrial, and has had a recent change in strategic shareholder from EGCO to Manila Water.

In this briefing:

1. CKP (CKP TB): Powerful Expansion to Drive Earnings Growth
2. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019
3. Company Visits: The Best of November/December 2018
4. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals
5. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships

1. CKP (CKP TB): Powerful Expansion to Drive Earnings Growth

• Strong net profit momentum and more attractive to analysts relative to its sector
• Higher power demand trend from new industrial consumers should continue supporting electricity sales, revenue rose 31% YoY in 3Q18
• Large capacity expansion from Xayaburi hydroelectric power plant in Laos with expected commercial operation date (COD) in 4Q19 to more than double CKP’s current effective capacity
• Trades above ASEAN Utilities at 19CE* 45.1x PE but offers great EPS growth in a sector that is expected to remain flattish
• Risk: Delays for new plants, change in government regulation

* Consensus Estimates

2. Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019

In a follow up to my note from last year Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017…and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018 I again look at my stock ideas that have worked out in 2018, those that have not and those where the verdict is still pending.

Last year I provided 5 high conviction ideas and here is their performance in a brutal year for Asian Stock Markets:

4 out of 5 had a positive performance.

Below I will make a new attempt to provide five high conviction ideas going into 2019.

3. Company Visits: The Best of November/December 2018

During this quarter, we visited 13 companies and have to admit the average quality has improved. Amongst these, there were four stocks that impressed us the most, and the Oscars go to…

• SSP acheiving profit growth in excess of 20% in the backdrop of Thai economic headwinds and Trumpian trade wars by expanding into countries unaffected by both issues.
• Amata VN capitalizing on the shift from locations with rising labor costs (eg Thailand, China) to Vietnam, which has more than a few geographic and demographic advantages.
• Gunkul, arguably Thailand’s hottest renewable play at the moment delivering outsized long-term growth in solar/wind space as well as a promising solar roof game plan.
• TIGER, an aggressive and small construction company that has only IPO’d for less than a quarter and is already highlighting aggressive growth plans.

4. RRG Global Macro – US Fed Positive Outlook – Stocks Fall.  Politics Take Over from Fundamentals

• US: Stocks fall on political turmoil despite positive noises from the Fed with a dovish rate hike, a reduction in expected 2019 hikes and positive trends on employment and inflation.
• Russia: Unexpected 25 bps rate hike in the face of higher inflation in Nov. Watch for impact of lower oil prices in coming quarters.
• Turkey: Economic developments remain negative. The outlook for retail sales is poor as the economy in general is faltering.
• Indonesia: Trade deficit in November. Exports down 3.3%; imports up 11.68%. This disappointing performance could be the beginning of a trend.

5. Universal, SegaSammy & Dynam Sit Best Positioned Among Japan Companies in Race for IR Partnerships

• We’ve reviewed 10 companies in the sector. Of those, three are the consensus favorites of our Tokyo based panel of industry, financial and economics observers of the IR initiative over many years.
• Based on pachinko alone, the stocks of these companies are fully valued. Based on potential tailwind from a license award within 6 months, they could be vastly undervalued.
• Each of the three noted here brings strength to a bid less based on financials than corporate focus, outlook and experience in the field.

In this briefing:

1. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War
2. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly
3. Thailand: The Sandbox
4. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater
5. UTP (UTP TB): Continued Gain from Tight Global Paper Supply

1. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War

• Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
• But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
• After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 

2. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly

SEMI, the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chain for the electronics industry, published three different forecasts for wafer fab equipment (WFE) sales in the past week. While the forecasts differ in approach and detail, they all agree on one thing, WFE revenues are continuing to fall and the outlook for 2019 is sharply down on previous estimates.

Specifically, Q4 2018 WFE revenues are set to decline 20.8% or $3.3 billion QoQ and the forecast which had just six months ago predicted 7% growth in 2019 is now calling for an 8% decline next year. 

These latest forecasts cast a dark shadow over the predictions of the leading WFE manufacturers that H1 2019 would be stronger than H2 2018 and we anticipate a strong downward revision of forward guidance in the upcoming earnings season. 

There may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon however as SEMI forecasts a strong rebound in the second half of 2019 leading to a return to growth of ~20% in 2020. Let’s see.  

3. Thailand: The Sandbox

4. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater

Small caps have an easier time scaling up in good times, but can get hit much harder by liquidity in the bear markets. Anyway, it’s still good to check how some of the better-know small cap names like MEGA and Eastwater even if they are not doing particularly well.

Here’s some highlights:

• MEGA hasn’t done quite as well. Their earnings growth has slowed to under 10% this year despite an average of 19% between 2014 and 2017. It doesn’t seem like there’s anything wrong with the business model or even execution, just Law of Large Numbers and running out of near-term opportunities.
• Interestingly, the company’s biggest market outside ASEAN is Africa (eg. Nigeria, Ethiopia), which accounts for 12% of their branded product revenues, and that’s declined 4.2%, hence dragging down the company’s performance.
• East Water realized healthy and stable gross margin of 50% and ROE of 10.9% while maintaining a strong credit rating of A+, allowing them to finance aggressive capex cheaply.
• The company generates over half of its revenues from raw water, which is more profitable than tap and industrial, and has had a recent change in strategic shareholder from EGCO to Manila Water.

5. UTP (UTP TB): Continued Gain from Tight Global Paper Supply

• Strong long-term sales growth, share price is less volatile, and solid short-term earnings momentum relative to its sector
• Sales growth for UTP’s cardboard paper and packaging used for corrugated boxes should be supported by an ongoing 20% ramp-up in production to 20,000 tons/month on tight global supply conditions
• Strong demand and efficiency improvements on older cardboard paper-making equipment has expanded margins, operating margin expanded by 12 ppts in 9M18 YoY
• UTP has shown solid improvements in asset turnover while also improving its net margin
• Risk: Chinese moves to ramp up paper supply again

* Consensus Estimates

In this briefing:

1. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly
2. Thailand: The Sandbox
3. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater
4. UTP (UTP TB): Continued Gain from Tight Global Paper Supply
5. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Dithering Dangerously, Digital Transformation, and Breadtalk

1. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly

SEMI, the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chain for the electronics industry, published three different forecasts for wafer fab equipment (WFE) sales in the past week. While the forecasts differ in approach and detail, they all agree on one thing, WFE revenues are continuing to fall and the outlook for 2019 is sharply down on previous estimates.

Specifically, Q4 2018 WFE revenues are set to decline 20.8% or $3.3 billion QoQ and the forecast which had just six months ago predicted 7% growth in 2019 is now calling for an 8% decline next year. 

These latest forecasts cast a dark shadow over the predictions of the leading WFE manufacturers that H1 2019 would be stronger than H2 2018 and we anticipate a strong downward revision of forward guidance in the upcoming earnings season. 

There may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon however as SEMI forecasts a strong rebound in the second half of 2019 leading to a return to growth of ~20% in 2020. Let’s see.  

2. Thailand: The Sandbox

3. Small Cap Diary: MEGA, Eastwater

Small caps have an easier time scaling up in good times, but can get hit much harder by liquidity in the bear markets. Anyway, it’s still good to check how some of the better-know small cap names like MEGA and Eastwater even if they are not doing particularly well.

Here’s some highlights:

• MEGA hasn’t done quite as well. Their earnings growth has slowed to under 10% this year despite an average of 19% between 2014 and 2017. It doesn’t seem like there’s anything wrong with the business model or even execution, just Law of Large Numbers and running out of near-term opportunities.
• Interestingly, the company’s biggest market outside ASEAN is Africa (eg. Nigeria, Ethiopia), which accounts for 12% of their branded product revenues, and that’s declined 4.2%, hence dragging down the company’s performance.
• East Water realized healthy and stable gross margin of 50% and ROE of 10.9% while maintaining a strong credit rating of A+, allowing them to finance aggressive capex cheaply.
• The company generates over half of its revenues from raw water, which is more profitable than tap and industrial, and has had a recent change in strategic shareholder from EGCO to Manila Water.

4. UTP (UTP TB): Continued Gain from Tight Global Paper Supply

• Strong long-term sales growth, share price is less volatile, and solid short-term earnings momentum relative to its sector
• Sales growth for UTP’s cardboard paper and packaging used for corrugated boxes should be supported by an ongoing 20% ramp-up in production to 20,000 tons/month on tight global supply conditions
• Strong demand and efficiency improvements on older cardboard paper-making equipment has expanded margins, operating margin expanded by 12 ppts in 9M18 YoY
• UTP has shown solid improvements in asset turnover while also improving its net margin
• Risk: Chinese moves to ramp up paper supply again

* Consensus Estimates

5. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Dithering Dangerously, Digital Transformation, and Breadtalk

Macro Insights

In his appropriately named insight, The Year of Dithering Dangerously, Kevin O’Rourke suggests that President Joko Widodo, cabinet-level policymakers and the broader political elite are neglecting the imperative for economic reform at a particularly critical juncture. 

In Campaign Sparring Re: Islam / KPK on PLN / Gov’t Wants Unicorn IPOs / Loan Growth Uptick / WB on FDI, Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most important political developments over the past week. 

In his Insight Indonesia: All Together NowNicholas Chia provides up with an interesting update on the Indonesian Economy. 

In Thailand: Wobbles En Route to Slower but Still-Sustained Growth Momentum, Jason Tan writes on Thailand following some faltering GDP numbers. 

In Political Pit Stop (December): First Month of Campaigning, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on the state of political activity over the last month in Thailand as campaigning begins for the upcoming election. 

In The Philippines: Reforms Under a Political Cloud; BSP May Turn DovishManu Bhaskaran comments on recent economic developments in the Philippines. 

In Philippine Monetary Policy: Relief from No Rate Hike, Jun Trinidad comments on the economic outlook in the Philippines following a lack of action at BSP’s last policy meeting. 

In Singapore-Malaysia Tensions Rise Anew in Airspace and Maritime Disputes, Jason Tan comments on the resurgence of political tension between Singapore and Malaysia. 

Equity Bottom-Up Insights

In SCMA (SCMA IJ) – Biting the Digital Bullet, former Jakartan and CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh circles back to leading Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) following a conversation with management focusing on its digital aspirations. 

In BreadTalk (BREAD SP): As Din Tai Fung Opens in London, CEO Puts Out Target to Double Mkt Cap, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Breadtalk (BREAD SP) following the opening of Din Tai Fung in London. 

In MER (MER PM): Solid Fundamentals at No. 1 Philippine Power Producer, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA  works his magic on this leading Philippines utility company. 

In PTT (PTT TB): Planned Listing of Retail Business in 2019, Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA circles back to PTT PCL (PTT TB) following the announcement of its intention to list its retail business.  

In SCC (SCC TB): Potential Beneficiary from US-China Trade War, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Siam Cement (SCC TB) as a potential beneficiary souring US-China relations. 

In PLANB: Solid Outlook for Music Marketing Business Under BNK48 Office, our friends at Country Group revisit media player Plan B Media (PLANB TB) in Thailand. 

In SEAFCO (SEAFCO TB): Solid Backlog, Solid Profitability, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA takes a close look at this leading construction player. 

In SVI (SVI TB): Production Capacity Expansion Should Continue to Pay Off, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA comments on electronics manufacturing company and takes a positive view. 

Sector and Thematic Insights

In a fascinating Insight, How the Mighty Fall…Or Should That Be A “Who Will”? Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA refers to Jim Collins’ book ‘How the Mighty Fall’ and highlights some interesting pitfalls that see some great companies decline or even collapse and follows them in stages. He applied the approach to companies in Thailand. 

In Revisiting the Renewable Energy Space, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA checks out two stocks in the Thai renewable energy space. 

In Snippets #17: PTTEP’s Winner Curse, Huawei’s Crisis, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA picks out the most interesting pieces of breaking news over the past week or so in Thailand.