Thailand

In this briefing:

1. Uzbekistan Initiation: Value Hidden in Plain Sight
2. Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” – Week Ending January 17, 2019
3. The Burden of Too Big Government
4. JKN: Prime Content Distributor Eyes Big Opportunities in ASEAN Market
5. Emerging Asean Telcos 2019: Indonesia Looks Best Placed. Malaysia Improving.

1. Uzbekistan Initiation: Value Hidden in Plain Sight

Uzbekistan’s economy is a frontier market stand out and has a large number of attractive characteristics:

• Uzbekistan’s stock market trades at a substantial discount to other frontier markets, though the extremely illiquid nature of the market makes it hard to trade.  However, there still is foreign interest in the market.
• The IMF projects that the economy will grow by 5% during 2018 and 2019, and eventually reach 6% by 2022, though this is still below its historical high. 
• Market reforms were spearheaded in December 2016 when the newly elected president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev decided to transition towards a market- oriented economy led by private sector growth, as the public sector was unable to create enough jobs.  This represents a significant shift given that Uzbekistan had been a closed, centrally planned economy until 2016.
• Tourist arrivals grew by 91.6% during H1 2018, and this is poised to improve greater in the future due to the impact of the visa liberalization measures.
• Twin deficits have remained under control and Uzbekistan is one of few current account surplus frontier markets.
• Uzbekistan is also very attractive compared to other markets in the frontier space given that its minimum wage is only US$24/month, compared to around $70-75/month in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

The market reforms that the country recently implemented will be a major catalyst for future economic growth and makes investment in this market appealing.  Apart from strong growth, the market is also appealing due to its high foreign exchange reserves ( nearly 2 years of import cover), consistent CA surplus, and stable currency.  My latest frontier and emerging market recap highlights the appeals of markets such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Egypt, while expressing concerns for markets such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan.  Uzbekistan is a suitable addition given its stable macro/political picture, and the main negative factor of this market is the highly inaccessible nature of the equity market.  The ADTV is less than $100,000, which is a far cry from other frontier markets like Romania, Sri Lanka and Kenya.

2. Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” – Week Ending January 17, 2019

Highlights of significant recent happenings include:

3. The Burden of Too Big Government

From our very own “Austrian” Leigh Skene:

Wars in old times were made to get slaves. The modern implement of imposing slavery is debt. Ezra Pound

Governments used public sector balance sheets to bail out private financial institutions and assist private companies to emerge from bankruptcy in the GFC. These actions transferred credit risk from the private to the public sector, yet falling nominal interest rates minimised, and in some cases froze, the cost of servicing the mounting government debt until late 2016. Since then, many borrowers have paid rising  interest rates on increasing amounts of debt. Debt service charges are rising faster than nominal GDP in a growing number of nations as a result. It is estimated that the US federal funding requirement will rise from minus US$ 700bn to US$ 2tr in 2022.

4. JKN: Prime Content Distributor Eyes Big Opportunities in ASEAN Market

We initiate coverage of JKN with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt8.80, pegged to the the 14.8xPE’19E mean of the Asia ex-Japan Consumer Discretionary Sector.

The story:

• Plenty of opportunities in the ASEAN market
• Harvest season is imminent
• New contracts with three new channels confirm 2019 domestic growth
• Mild recovery for domestic digital TV industry in 2019E

Risks: Heavy reliance on a few major customers, probability it will have to set provisions for doubtful debts and potential inability to renew contracts with customers.

5. Emerging Asean Telcos 2019: Indonesia Looks Best Placed. Malaysia Improving.

Looking at the telco space for Emerging Asean markets in 2019, we see a number of key themes. 

• Revenue trends are likely to worsen in Thailand and the Philippines, but improve in Indonesia and possibly Malaysia. 
• Margin trends usually follow revenue but Indonesia will have the added benefit of reduced subscriber churn following the SIM registration completion in 2018.
• Political risk is elevated with elections in Thailand (although renewed talk of delays) and Indonesia.

Overall, Indonesia looks to be the most interesting market with rising revenue growth as the market stabilizes. Telekom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) is our top pick, followed by Xl Axiata (EXCL IJ). Elsewhere, Malaysia looks to be improving but valuations remain high.  The outlook has worsened in Thailand with DTAC (DTAC TB) getting hold of spectrum and now litigation risk coming to the fore with old cases with TOT/CAT. The Philippine duopoly faces the rude shock from the China Telecom Consortium’s entry in late 2019. 

In this briefing:

1. RRG Global Macro Weekly – Dramatic Brexit Defeat A Positive for Markets? We Are Not So Sanguine
2. Wanted: A 21st Century Monetary Theory
3. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Asia’s Time, Indo Mini-Marts, and Singapore Property Woes
4. Catalyst Calendar for Thailand 2019
5. Global Banks: Why Buy High Into Popular and Fashionable Banks and Markets? Be Contrarian and Buy Low

1. RRG Global Macro Weekly – Dramatic Brexit Defeat A Positive for Markets? We Are Not So Sanguine

The dramatic defeat of PM May’s Brexit arrangement with the EU was seen by the markets as a positive development. Apparently the markets believe that this could result in Britain remaining in the EU.

While we agree this would be good news we consider it unlikely without many more months or years of uncertainty as another referendum is organized and implemented.

Romania: GDP in Q3 grew 4.4% y/y, up from 4.1% in Q2. The country’s economy is doing better than most EU countries.
Brazil: The CPI in Dec rose 3.7%, down from 4.05% in Nov. Lowest rate since May, as prices slowed for food and fuel.
India: The trade deficit in Dec narrowed to $13.1 bn. Exports rose a meager 0.3% and imports fell 2.44%. GDP growth of 7% is expected for this year and next..

2. Wanted: A 21st Century Monetary Theory

The globe is facing more than an ordinary business cycle.

Joseph C. Sternberg, editorial-page editor and European political-economy columnist for the Wall Street Journal’s European edition, recently interviewed Claudio Borio, head of the Monetaryand Economic Department of the BIS. Mr. Borio said that politicians have relied far too much on central banks, which are constrained by economic theories that offer little meaningful guidance on how to sustain growth and financial stability. The only tool they have is an interest rate that can affect output in the short run but ends up affecting only inflation in the end.

3. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Asia’s Time, Indo Mini-Marts, and Singapore Property Woes

Macro Insights

In Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat, Sharmila Whelan suggests that the time has come for Asia to outperform developed markets.

In The Black Elephant Has Trumpeted, Dr. Jim Walker argues that we are on the cusp of a period of pronounced outperformance for Asian economies. 

In Catalyst Calendar for Thailand 2019, our Thai Guru attempts upcoming catalysts for selective stocks in Thailand including TMB Bank PCL (TMB TB), Airports Of Thailand (AOT TB), Indorama Ventures (IVL TB), Sino Thai Engr & Constr (STEC TB), and Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB).

Equity Bottom-Up Insights

In his on the ground insight, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Flying off the Shelves, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh revisits this leading Indonesian mini-market operator. After a meeting with management, he finds the company on an altogether more favourable tack.

In Ayala Corp Placement – Selldown by Mitsubishi Likely to Reignite Overhang Worries, Zhen Zhou, Toh takes a look at this significant transaction in the Philippines. 

in Capitaland (CAPL SP): Transformational Acquisition at a Premium, Arun George comments on Capitaland Ltd (CAPL SP)‘s latest acquisition and though he sees it as significant would take a wait and see stance on the stock. 

Sector and Thematic Insights

In Singapore Real Deals (Jan 2019 Issue 1, Anni Kum launches a new regular product commenting on significant developments in the Singapore property sector. Singapore Real Deals is a fortnightly property digest that takes you through the peculiarities of Singapore’s real estate market. In the first issue of Singapore Real Deals, she will dive into the first property launch in Prime District 9 in 2019, RV Altitude, to get a sense of the product mix and pricing strategies that developers are adopting in a price-sensitive market. 

In Singapore Property – A Perfect Storm for the High-End Residential Market in 2019?, Royston Foo investigates some worrying developments on the supply side in Singapore property, which he suggests could negatively affect the market, especially the high-end.

4. Catalyst Calendar for Thailand 2019

While it may not be possible to get 100% visibility on upcoming analysts, the team at MCorp Review figured that it would be useful to start a calendar for those we see in the pipeline for this year and cite no more than three stocks that could come into focus during those months because of these catalysts. Some examples include:

• The TMB-Thanachart deal (late January) possibly the biggest bank deal since Mitsubishi-UFJ bought BAY for US$4.4bn in 2013, we see the government’s fingerprints in this and the likelihood that the share swap ratio will favor TMB.
• Chinese New Year (Feb 5), an important test for Thai tourism and AOT following the death of mainland tourists in Phuket last year. An underwhelming show would also hit Indorama.
• General elections (late May?) If this goes through, Sino Thai Engr & Constr (STEC TB) , whose tycoon Anutin Charnvirakul leads the swing vote party Bhumjaithai, could benefit hugely.
• Blockbuster season (August) So far, X-Men sequel The New Mutants, which timeline is confirmed, looks like the big boost for cinema titan Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB) , though we suspect Avengers Endgame, the sequel to Infinity Wars, would be an even bigger deal.

5. Global Banks: Why Buy High Into Popular and Fashionable Banks and Markets? Be Contrarian and Buy Low

Trawling through  >1500 global banks, based on the last quarter of reported Balance Sheets, we apply the discipline of the PH Score™ , a value-quality fundamental momentum screen, plus a low RSI screen, and a low Franchise Valuation (FV) screen to deliver our latest rankings for global banks.

While not all of top decile 1 scores are a buy – some are value traps while others maybe somewhat small and obscure and traded sparsely- the bottom decile names should awaken caution. We would be hard pressed to recommend some of the more popular and fashionable names from the bottom decile. Names such as ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) , Credicorp of Peru, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB US) are EM favourites. Their share prices have performed well for an extended period and thus carry valuation risk. They represent pricey quality in some cases. They are not priced for disappointment but rather for hope. Are the constituents of the bottom decile not fertile grounds for short sellers?

Why pay top dollar for a bank franchise given risks related to domestic (let alone global) politics and the economy? Some investors and analysts have expressed “inspiration” for developments in Brazil and Argentina. But Brazilian bonds are now trading as if the country is Investment Grade again. (This is relevant for banks especially). Guedes and co. may deliver on pension/social security reform. If so, prices will become even more inflated. But what happens if they don’t deliver on reform? Why pay top dollar for hope given the ramp up in prices already? Argentina is an even more fragile “hope narrative”. More of a “Hope take 2”. Similar to Brazil, bank Franchise Valuations are elevated. While the current account adjustment and easing inflation are to be expected, the political and social scene will be a challenge. LATAM seems to be “hot” again with investment bankers talking of resilience. But resilience is different from valuation. Banks from Chile, Peru, and Colombia feature in the bottom decile too. If an investor wants to be in these markets and desires bank exposure, surely it makes sense to look for the best value on offer. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (AVAL CB) may represent one such opportunity.

Our bottom decile rankings feature a great deal of banks from Indonesia. In a promising market such as Indonesia, given bank valuations, one needs to tread extremely carefully to not end up paying over the odds, to not pay for extrapolation. In addition, India is a susceptible jurisdiction for any bank operating there – no bank is “superhuman” and especially not at the prices on offer for the popular private sector “winners”. Saudi Arabia is another market that suddenly became popular last year. We are mindful of valuations and FX.

Does it not make more sense to look at opportunity in the top decile? While some of the names here will be too small or illiquid (mea culpa), there are genuine portfolio candidates. South Korea stands out in the rankings. Woori Bank (WF US) is top of the rankings after a share price plunge related to a stock overhang but this will pass. Hana Financial (086790 KS) , Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK LX) and DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) are portfolio candidates. Elsewhere, Russia and Vietnam rightly feature while Sri Lanka and Pakistan contribute some names despite very real political and macro risks. We would caution on some of the relatively small Chinese names but recommend the big 4 versus EM peers – they are not expensive. In fact some of the big 4 feature in decile 2 of our rankings. There are many Japanese banks here too. And many, like some Chinese lenders, are cheap for a reason. While the technical picture for Japanese banks is bearish, at some stage selective weeding out of opportunity within Japan’s banking sector may be rewarding. The megabanks are certainly not dear. Europe is another matter. Despite valuations, we are cautious on French lenders and on German consolidation narratives – did a merger of 2 weak banks ever deliver shareholder value? The inclusion of two Romanian banks in the top decile is somewhat of a headscratcher. These are perfectly investable opportunities but share prices have been poor of late.

In this briefing:

1. Uranium – About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter
2. Asian Frontier Monitor: One Belt New Road – Here Comes America
3. This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: A Bitcoin Reversal; More Red Flags for Bitmain
4. Asia Gaming Preview 2019: Part Two Picks: Galaxy, MGM China and Nagacorp
5. Ten Years On – Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies

1. Uranium – About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

• Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
• LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
• Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
• Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
• Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
•  Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.

Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen <2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.

The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.

As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

2. Asian Frontier Monitor: One Belt New Road – Here Comes America

In our third report in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or One Belt One Road (OBOR) series, we examine a brand-new US strategic initiative to finance emerging markets economies, including OBOR, African, and Latin American countries.

The on-going trade war between China and the US makes the issue very political. Rightfully so, we believe the creation of the International Development Finance Corporation (“IDFC”) could be politically-motivated, but IDFC is no competition to the BRI as the latter deploys much greater funding (about USD40bn a year).

However, we see the merits of IDFC and the positive effects on Emerging Asia. After all, more competition for influence and more fund flow will help fund projects, and, perhaps, help reduce poverty (if good governance is observed). We also expect IDFC’s USD60bn fund to create more investable projects for institutional investors and lower funding cost for countries that need large infrastructure funding and countries that have been suspicious of the BRI such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka.

3. This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: A Bitcoin Reversal; More Red Flags for Bitmain

The year 2018 was not the brightest for cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) fell around 70% during 2018 and top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY), Ripple and Bitcoin Cash were also down around 80%, 85% and 95% respectively during last year. While it is difficult to pinpoint a single reason for this, a number of factors including, rising security concerns, increased scrutiny, failed institutional support and Bitcoin Cash hash wars have collectively contributed to this bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets last year.

In this note we take a look at several top cryptocurrency and blockchain developments from last year, to see how they would fare going into 2019.

This is a collaborative report between Douglas Kim and myself.

4. Asia Gaming Preview 2019: Part Two Picks: Galaxy, MGM China and Nagacorp

• Global and Asia headwinds still rattle the gaming sector, but these three companies remain undervalued despite market sentiment.
• Macau’s solid year end performance continues to defy projections, producing a 14% y/y GGR increase.
• Galaxy will benefit disproportionately from the HKMB bridge traffic growth, MGM’s single digit market share will ramp up to double digits and Nagacorp may be the single most siloed gaming operator in all of Asia.

5. Ten Years On – Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies

You might be surprised to learn that in the ten years to 2017 Asia has outperformed advanced economies. Despite extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus and the damaging dollar-demand deflationary policies of the ECB, BoJ and BoE, the region is 188% larger in US dollar terms compared with 2007 while US dollar GDP per capita income is 170% higher. The parallel numbers for the advanced countries – the US, euro-area and Japan combined- are 19% and 13%. Asian stock markets have underperformed since 2010 but we believe that investors are still to fully acknowledge Asia’s strong growth fundamentals. Combined with cheap valuations there is significant upside for Asian equity markets.

In this briefing:

1. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)
2. Are Chip Oligopolies Real?
3. Global Banks: Some New Year Pointers
4. Extraordinary Fiscal and Monetary Policies Have Disrupted the Global Economy
5. A Golden Future?

1. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

• Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors). As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November.
• The optimal value/growth style dynamic: We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.
• The Screen’s Risk: The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.
• Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.
• Are there reasons for the underperformance? 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.
• Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.

2. Are Chip Oligopolies Real?

In the semiconductor industry, particularly in the DRAM sector, there has been significant consolidation leading some to hypothesize that there’s now an oligopoly that will cause prices to normalize and thus end the business’ notorious revenue cycles.  Here we will take a critical look at this argument to explain its fallacy.

3. Global Banks: Some New Year Pointers

Here is a look at how regions fare regarding key indicators.

• PH Score = value-quality (10 variables)
• FV=Franchise Valuation
• RSI
• TRR= Dividend-adjusted PEG factor
• ROE
• EY=Earnings Yield

We have created a model that incorporates these components into a system that covers>1500 banks.

4. Extraordinary Fiscal and Monetary Policies Have Disrupted the Global Economy

In their public presentations, central banks seem to be contemplating the use of neutral interest rates (r*) in addition to unemployment/inflation theories. R* has the advantage of appearing to be subject to mathematical precision, yet it’s unobservable, and so unfalsifiable. Thus, it permits central banks to present any policy conclusion they want without fear of verifiable contradiction. R* is the policy rate that would equate the future supply of and demand for loans. It rises and falls as an economy strengthens and weakens. Long-term observation during the non-inflationary gold standard, period indicated that r* in an average economy was 2% plus, which would become 4% plus with today’s 2% inflation target. The Fed may soon end this tightening cycle with the fed funds rate at or near 2¾%, which would be r* if the rate of lending and borrowing in America remained stable thereafter. Rising (falling) lending would indicate a higher (lower) r*. 

5. A Golden Future?

The ability to have stable prices has great value.

According to Edward Gibbon, the decaying Roman Empire exhibited five hallmarks: 1) concern with displaying affluence instead of building wealth; 2) obsession with sex; 3) freakish and sensationalistic art; 4) widening disparity between the rich and the poor; and 5) increased demand to live off the state. Most DMs and many EMs display similar symptoms today because fiscal and monetary policies, the foundation of both ancient and modern societies, are identical: increasing welfare outlays by artificially inflating the money supply. The Roman Empire took more than four centuries to destroy what the Republic had built in the previous five centuries because clipping and debasing coins inflated currency supplies slowly. Entering debits and credits in the books of commercial and central banks is much more efficient. 

In this briefing:

1. Much Ado About Credit
2. Political Pit Stop (January): Election Delay!
3. Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat
4. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Twin Deficits, Bank Mandiri, and the M1 Bid
5. Leong Hup IPO Preview: A Game of Chicken

1. Much Ado About Credit

• Global financing conditions could tighten further
• Credit demand is deteriorating; credit risks are rising; Eurodollar costs are edging higher
• A de-escalation in trade tensions and a Fed pause could ease the pain
• Will Fed recently turning more dovish (possible shift to slower QT & Fed rate cut in 2019?) + concomitant USD drift provide sufficient respite to put a floor under risk assets?

2. Political Pit Stop (January): Election Delay!

The regime announced that elections will be delayed from the seemingly ‘rock solid’ date of Feb 24, 2019 as there are concerns it would interfere with the coronation ceremony in early May. While the other political parties (Dems, Thaksinites) are generally understanding, there is a group of pro-democracy group that has marched out to protest and demand that the regime stick to the old timeline. Apart from this, there are some observations regarding:

• Short tenure. The Dems pointed out that given a possible Parliamentary minority (despite Senate majority), the Army faction’s new government could find itself unstable, something which the Army faction itself has not denied. Perhaps, the next government won’t last four years like this one.
• Differences and similarities in policies. From our standpoint, almost all the three major factions adhere to populist policies, such as straightforward money handouts. However, the Army faction has some advantages such as hotlines, which assume they stick to power for a while.
• Greater potential for violence. The protest against election delays has dragged on for two weeks, increasing the risk of armed conflict and instability.

3. Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat

We noted in   Ten Years On – Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies Asia’s economies and companies have outperformed advanced country peers in the ten years to 2017.  Growing by 6.8%, real, through the crisis the region is 188% larger in US dollar terms while US dollar per capita incomes 170% higher compared with 2007. In this note we argue even though Asian stock markets have underperformed since 2010 and the bulk of global capital flows have gone to advanced countries, Asia’s time is coming. Valuations are cheap. Growth fundamentals strong. There are few external or internal imbalances. Macroeconomic management has been better than in advanced economies and the scope to ease policy to ward off headwinds in 2019 is greater. China has already started.

4. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Twin Deficits, Bank Mandiri, and the M1 Bid

Macro Insights

In Widodo, PDI-P Lead / Siregar to DC / Tobin Tax Unlikely / KPK Bomb Scare / Industry Minister Eyed, Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most significant economic and political developments over the last week. 

In his economic insight, Philippines: Time to Mull over the Risks of the ‘twin Deficit’ Syndrome, Jun Trinidad comments on the selling macro imbalances in the Philippines and the risks posed for the economy. 

In Philippines: Another CPI Downside Surprise in December, Jun Trinidad comments on the lower than expected inflation figures coming out of the Philippines. 

Equity Bottom-up Insights

In Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Shape Shifting and Millenial Mortgages, circles back to Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) following a meeting with management in Jakarta. He sees Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) as a key proxy for the Indonesian banking sector, with an increasingly well-diversified portfolio and growing exposure to the potentially higher growth areas of microlending and consumer loans.

In Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP): MBK + ORIX + AGT = Time for Outperformance? 9.5% Dividend Yield, Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to this golfing play and suggests now it a good time to revisit. 

In IPS Securex (IPSS SP): Micro-Cap Could Benefit from SG Gov’t HDB Upgrade Program, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this small cap which is a play on Housing Development Board upgrades in Singapore.  

In M1 Offer Despatched – Dynamics Still Iffy, Travis Lundy comments on the ongoing offer by Konnectivity for M1 Ltd (M1 SP) and whether we should expect a “bump” in the shares or to sell into the market.  

In M1 Ltd (M1 SP): Take the Offer, Axiata Unlikely to Start a Bidding War, Arun George comments on Konnectivity’s bid for M1 Ltd (M1 SP) and suggests taking up the offer.

In PCI Ltd – All Over Before It Starts, Ballingall event-driven specialist David Blennerhassett comments on the ongoing bid for Pci Ltd (PCI SP) and sees it as a done deal. 

5. Leong Hup IPO Preview: A Game of Chicken

Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) is one of the largest producers of poultry, eggs and livestock feeds in Southeast Asia. After an unusually quite 2018, Malaysia’s equity capital market is set for rebound with at least three issuers looking to raise up to $500 million from IPOs. Leong Hup is set to the be the first as it has started the search for cornerstone investors.

In this briefing:

1. Asian Credit Monitor: 2019 Portfolio Strategy, US Rate Trajectory, China Reform Pause
2. IPO Radar: AutoCorp, Honda’s Avatar in Thailand

1. Asian Credit Monitor: 2019 Portfolio Strategy, US Rate Trajectory, China Reform Pause

If we had to make a base observation for Asia credit markets over 2018, it was certainly caught “wrong-footed” like most of its other risky asset counterparts. The combination of a more hawkish Fed in 2018, global quantitative tightening, late-cycle economic conditions, volatility and a strong USD have all served to impact almost all the asset classes negatively. According to some asset allocators, the only asset class which returned positive in 2018 was cash, every other traditional asset class saw losses.

USD direction will further dictate the impact on overall Asian risk, in our view, with many undervalued Asian currencies following their sharp declines in 2018. One of our scenarios includes a range-bound USD in 1H19, followed by a possible reversal in 2H19 on any dovish Fed policy/US economic weakness. In this case, it has the potential to attract incremental portfolio inflows back into Asian risk. We expect a slightly tighter bias in monetary policy in most Asia ex-Japan nations which is supportive for their respective currencies.

In 2019, risk-reward dynamics have improved particularly for Asian investment grade (“IG”) where we see more limited MTM pressure. We expect a more defensive market at least in 1H19 which supports our heavier IG bias. We suspect larger investors would continue to reallocate depending on the outcomes of the China-US trade dispute and their view on US risk (arguably near its last late-cycle expansion legs). We continue to be extremely selective in Asian high yield (“HY”) which have been impacted by idiosyncratic situations including credit deterioration and rising defaults. Exogenous factors such as the potential for “fallen angel” risk (i.e. a migration from issuers on the cusp of IG, “BBB-”  into HY) as well as net portfolio outflows from HY, EM and leveraged loan funds are ongoing concerns. Despite cheaper valuations in Asian HY, we still see skewed risk-reward (with larger potential risks).

In the US, our base case expects the Fed to hike 1-2 times (quarter point each) for 2019, premised on still below-trend inflation and external factors. We think it is near the tail-end of its current tightening cycle, but we would continue to monitor the US supply-side (labour markets, employment gaps, prices) for further clues. A sustained upshot to the previous factors may have the potential to prolong the Fed’s tightening cycle.

On China’s side, we have seen a critical reversal in policy towards selective expansion/accommodation again as economic reforms instituted 3 years ago have been reprioritized. China’s difficult task to balance growth targets and restructure its economy is a perennial issue. We would also expect defaults to remain elevated domestically/internationally as a new paradigm of credit investing takes root in China.

Finally, we would like to wish our readers luck in investing and trading in the year ahead.

2. IPO Radar: AutoCorp, Honda’s Avatar in Thailand

In August 2017, Honda stole the top spot in Thai passenger cars from Toyota and held it for a few months. They are still formidable players, and ACG (AutoCorp) which runs Honda dealerships and service centers across Thailand, is expected to IPO some time in 2019. Here’s our quick look at the company.

• We value this IPO at Bt2/sh using DCF, since there’s really no good comparables. The company is expected to enjoy slower revenue growth and higher margins going forward as car sales slow down nationally and maintenance becomes a bigger chunk of the revenues.
• They only operate in four provinces and run 8 showrooms with over 6,000 sqm of display space. The service centers account for almost 17,200 sqm. The big chunk comes from lower margin car sales. Along with accessories, these account for 84% of revenues.
• The IPO is firmly underwritten by Singapore’s Phillips Securities and is good for more than a quarter of shares outstanding (26%). The founding Rangkanuwat family control all remaining shares and have committed to 6 month lock-up period.

In this briefing:

1. Political Pit Stop (January): Election Delay!
2. Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat
3. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Twin Deficits, Bank Mandiri, and the M1 Bid
4. Leong Hup IPO Preview: A Game of Chicken
5. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

1. Political Pit Stop (January): Election Delay!

The regime announced that elections will be delayed from the seemingly ‘rock solid’ date of Feb 24, 2019 as there are concerns it would interfere with the coronation ceremony in early May. While the other political parties (Dems, Thaksinites) are generally understanding, there is a group of pro-democracy group that has marched out to protest and demand that the regime stick to the old timeline. Apart from this, there are some observations regarding:

• Short tenure. The Dems pointed out that given a possible Parliamentary minority (despite Senate majority), the Army faction’s new government could find itself unstable, something which the Army faction itself has not denied. Perhaps, the next government won’t last four years like this one.
• Differences and similarities in policies. From our standpoint, almost all the three major factions adhere to populist policies, such as straightforward money handouts. However, the Army faction has some advantages such as hotlines, which assume they stick to power for a while.
• Greater potential for violence. The protest against election delays has dragged on for two weeks, increasing the risk of armed conflict and instability.

2. Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat

We noted in   Ten Years On – Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies Asia’s economies and companies have outperformed advanced country peers in the ten years to 2017.  Growing by 6.8%, real, through the crisis the region is 188% larger in US dollar terms while US dollar per capita incomes 170% higher compared with 2007. In this note we argue even though Asian stock markets have underperformed since 2010 and the bulk of global capital flows have gone to advanced countries, Asia’s time is coming. Valuations are cheap. Growth fundamentals strong. There are few external or internal imbalances. Macroeconomic management has been better than in advanced economies and the scope to ease policy to ward off headwinds in 2019 is greater. China has already started.

3. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Twin Deficits, Bank Mandiri, and the M1 Bid

Macro Insights

In Widodo, PDI-P Lead / Siregar to DC / Tobin Tax Unlikely / KPK Bomb Scare / Industry Minister Eyed, Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most significant economic and political developments over the last week. 

In his economic insight, Philippines: Time to Mull over the Risks of the ‘twin Deficit’ Syndrome, Jun Trinidad comments on the selling macro imbalances in the Philippines and the risks posed for the economy. 

In Philippines: Another CPI Downside Surprise in December, Jun Trinidad comments on the lower than expected inflation figures coming out of the Philippines. 

Equity Bottom-up Insights

In Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Shape Shifting and Millenial Mortgages, circles back to Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) following a meeting with management in Jakarta. He sees Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) as a key proxy for the Indonesian banking sector, with an increasingly well-diversified portfolio and growing exposure to the potentially higher growth areas of microlending and consumer loans.

In Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP): MBK + ORIX + AGT = Time for Outperformance? 9.5% Dividend Yield, Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to this golfing play and suggests now it a good time to revisit. 

In IPS Securex (IPSS SP): Micro-Cap Could Benefit from SG Gov’t HDB Upgrade Program, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this small cap which is a play on Housing Development Board upgrades in Singapore.  

In M1 Offer Despatched – Dynamics Still Iffy, Travis Lundy comments on the ongoing offer by Konnectivity for M1 Ltd (M1 SP) and whether we should expect a “bump” in the shares or to sell into the market.  

In M1 Ltd (M1 SP): Take the Offer, Axiata Unlikely to Start a Bidding War, Arun George comments on Konnectivity’s bid for M1 Ltd (M1 SP) and suggests taking up the offer.

In PCI Ltd – All Over Before It Starts, Ballingall event-driven specialist David Blennerhassett comments on the ongoing bid for Pci Ltd (PCI SP) and sees it as a done deal. 

4. Leong Hup IPO Preview: A Game of Chicken

Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) is one of the largest producers of poultry, eggs and livestock feeds in Southeast Asia. After an unusually quite 2018, Malaysia’s equity capital market is set for rebound with at least three issuers looking to raise up to $500 million from IPOs. Leong Hup is set to the be the first as it has started the search for cornerstone investors.

5. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

• Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors). As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November.
• The optimal value/growth style dynamic: We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.
• The Screen’s Risk: The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.
• Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.
• Are there reasons for the underperformance? 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.
• Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.

In this briefing:

1. IPO Radar: AutoCorp, Honda’s Avatar in Thailand

1. IPO Radar: AutoCorp, Honda’s Avatar in Thailand

In August 2017, Honda stole the top spot in Thai passenger cars from Toyota and held it for a few months. They are still formidable players, and ACG (AutoCorp) which runs Honda dealerships and service centers across Thailand, is expected to IPO some time in 2019. Here’s our quick look at the company.

• We value this IPO at Bt2/sh using DCF, since there’s really no good comparables. The company is expected to enjoy slower revenue growth and higher margins going forward as car sales slow down nationally and maintenance becomes a bigger chunk of the revenues.
• They only operate in four provinces and run 8 showrooms with over 6,000 sqm of display space. The service centers account for almost 17,200 sqm. The big chunk comes from lower margin car sales. Along with accessories, these account for 84% of revenues.
• The IPO is firmly underwritten by Singapore’s Phillips Securities and is good for more than a quarter of shares outstanding (26%). The founding Rangkanuwat family control all remaining shares and have committed to 6 month lock-up period.

In this briefing:

1. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Twin Deficits, Bank Mandiri, and the M1 Bid
2. Leong Hup IPO Preview: A Game of Chicken
3. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)
4. Are Chip Oligopolies Real?
5. Global Banks: Some New Year Pointers

1. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Twin Deficits, Bank Mandiri, and the M1 Bid

Macro Insights

In Widodo, PDI-P Lead / Siregar to DC / Tobin Tax Unlikely / KPK Bomb Scare / Industry Minister Eyed, Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most significant economic and political developments over the last week. 

In his economic insight, Philippines: Time to Mull over the Risks of the ‘twin Deficit’ Syndrome, Jun Trinidad comments on the selling macro imbalances in the Philippines and the risks posed for the economy. 

In Philippines: Another CPI Downside Surprise in December, Jun Trinidad comments on the lower than expected inflation figures coming out of the Philippines. 

Equity Bottom-up Insights

In Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Shape Shifting and Millenial Mortgages, circles back to Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) following a meeting with management in Jakarta. He sees Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) as a key proxy for the Indonesian banking sector, with an increasingly well-diversified portfolio and growing exposure to the potentially higher growth areas of microlending and consumer loans.

In Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP): MBK + ORIX + AGT = Time for Outperformance? 9.5% Dividend Yield, Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to this golfing play and suggests now it a good time to revisit. 

In IPS Securex (IPSS SP): Micro-Cap Could Benefit from SG Gov’t HDB Upgrade Program, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this small cap which is a play on Housing Development Board upgrades in Singapore.  

In M1 Offer Despatched – Dynamics Still Iffy, Travis Lundy comments on the ongoing offer by Konnectivity for M1 Ltd (M1 SP) and whether we should expect a “bump” in the shares or to sell into the market.  

In M1 Ltd (M1 SP): Take the Offer, Axiata Unlikely to Start a Bidding War, Arun George comments on Konnectivity’s bid for M1 Ltd (M1 SP) and suggests taking up the offer.

In PCI Ltd – All Over Before It Starts, Ballingall event-driven specialist David Blennerhassett comments on the ongoing bid for Pci Ltd (PCI SP) and sees it as a done deal. 

2. Leong Hup IPO Preview: A Game of Chicken

Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) is one of the largest producers of poultry, eggs and livestock feeds in Southeast Asia. After an unusually quite 2018, Malaysia’s equity capital market is set for rebound with at least three issuers looking to raise up to $500 million from IPOs. Leong Hup is set to the be the first as it has started the search for cornerstone investors.

3. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

• Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors). As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November.
• The optimal value/growth style dynamic: We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.
• The Screen’s Risk: The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.
• Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.
• Are there reasons for the underperformance? 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.
• Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.

4. Are Chip Oligopolies Real?

In the semiconductor industry, particularly in the DRAM sector, there has been significant consolidation leading some to hypothesize that there’s now an oligopoly that will cause prices to normalize and thus end the business’ notorious revenue cycles.  Here we will take a critical look at this argument to explain its fallacy.

5. Global Banks: Some New Year Pointers

Here is a look at how regions fare regarding key indicators.

• PH Score = value-quality (10 variables)
• FV=Franchise Valuation
• RSI
• TRR= Dividend-adjusted PEG factor
• ROE
• EY=Earnings Yield

We have created a model that incorporates these components into a system that covers>1500 banks.

In this briefing:

1. Extraordinary Fiscal and Monetary Policies Have Disrupted the Global Economy
2. A Golden Future?
3. Uranium – About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter
4. Asian Frontier Monitor: One Belt New Road – Here Comes America
5. This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: A Bitcoin Reversal; More Red Flags for Bitmain

1. Extraordinary Fiscal and Monetary Policies Have Disrupted the Global Economy

In their public presentations, central banks seem to be contemplating the use of neutral interest rates (r*) in addition to unemployment/inflation theories. R* has the advantage of appearing to be subject to mathematical precision, yet it’s unobservable, and so unfalsifiable. Thus, it permits central banks to present any policy conclusion they want without fear of verifiable contradiction. R* is the policy rate that would equate the future supply of and demand for loans. It rises and falls as an economy strengthens and weakens. Long-term observation during the non-inflationary gold standard, period indicated that r* in an average economy was 2% plus, which would become 4% plus with today’s 2% inflation target. The Fed may soon end this tightening cycle with the fed funds rate at or near 2¾%, which would be r* if the rate of lending and borrowing in America remained stable thereafter. Rising (falling) lending would indicate a higher (lower) r*. 

2. A Golden Future?

The ability to have stable prices has great value.

According to Edward Gibbon, the decaying Roman Empire exhibited five hallmarks: 1) concern with displaying affluence instead of building wealth; 2) obsession with sex; 3) freakish and sensationalistic art; 4) widening disparity between the rich and the poor; and 5) increased demand to live off the state. Most DMs and many EMs display similar symptoms today because fiscal and monetary policies, the foundation of both ancient and modern societies, are identical: increasing welfare outlays by artificially inflating the money supply. The Roman Empire took more than four centuries to destroy what the Republic had built in the previous five centuries because clipping and debasing coins inflated currency supplies slowly. Entering debits and credits in the books of commercial and central banks is much more efficient. 

3. Uranium – About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

• Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
• LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
• Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
• Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
• Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
•  Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.

Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen <2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.

The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.

As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

4. Asian Frontier Monitor: One Belt New Road – Here Comes America

In our third report in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or One Belt One Road (OBOR) series, we examine a brand-new US strategic initiative to finance emerging markets economies, including OBOR, African, and Latin American countries.

The on-going trade war between China and the US makes the issue very political. Rightfully so, we believe the creation of the International Development Finance Corporation (“IDFC”) could be politically-motivated, but IDFC is no competition to the BRI as the latter deploys much greater funding (about USD40bn a year).

However, we see the merits of IDFC and the positive effects on Emerging Asia. After all, more competition for influence and more fund flow will help fund projects, and, perhaps, help reduce poverty (if good governance is observed). We also expect IDFC’s USD60bn fund to create more investable projects for institutional investors and lower funding cost for countries that need large infrastructure funding and countries that have been suspicious of the BRI such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka.

5. This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: A Bitcoin Reversal; More Red Flags for Bitmain

The year 2018 was not the brightest for cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) fell around 70% during 2018 and top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH BGN CURNCY), Ripple and Bitcoin Cash were also down around 80%, 85% and 95% respectively during last year. While it is difficult to pinpoint a single reason for this, a number of factors including, rising security concerns, increased scrutiny, failed institutional support and Bitcoin Cash hash wars have collectively contributed to this bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets last year.

In this note we take a look at several top cryptocurrency and blockchain developments from last year, to see how they would fare going into 2019.

This is a collaborative report between Douglas Kim and myself.