Preceding my comments on HLG and Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.
We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.
If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.
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Preceding my comments on HLG and Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.
We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.
If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.
EPG reports FY3Q19 net profit of Bt225m (+24%YoY,-14%QoQ). The FY9M19 result was in line with and accounts for 69% of our full-year forecast.
A YoY increase in earnings was mainly caused by sales contribution from automotive segment (+28%YoY). While a QoQ fall in earnings was due to a seasonal drop in sales of thermal insulators segment and narrow gross profit margins due to rising raw material costs.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY19-20E earnings driven by growth in every business units: 1) sales recovery from EPP segment (22% of total sales in FY9M19) from changing its product mix toward more on food packaging; 2) revenue contribution from Flexiglass after acquired it during FY1Q19, and, 3) consistent sales growth for Aeroflex (28% of total sales)
We maintain our BUY rating with the target price of *Bt10.40 derived from its 2-years average trading range of 25xPE’19E.
*We make no changes to forecast, recommendation, and target price at the time of result announcement.
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Preceding my comments on HLG and Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.
We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.
If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.
EPG reports FY3Q19 net profit of Bt225m (+24%YoY,-14%QoQ). The FY9M19 result was in line with and accounts for 69% of our full-year forecast.
A YoY increase in earnings was mainly caused by sales contribution from automotive segment (+28%YoY). While a QoQ fall in earnings was due to a seasonal drop in sales of thermal insulators segment and narrow gross profit margins due to rising raw material costs.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY19-20E earnings driven by growth in every business units: 1) sales recovery from EPP segment (22% of total sales in FY9M19) from changing its product mix toward more on food packaging; 2) revenue contribution from Flexiglass after acquired it during FY1Q19, and, 3) consistent sales growth for Aeroflex (28% of total sales)
We maintain our BUY rating with the target price of *Bt10.40 derived from its 2-years average trading range of 25xPE’19E.
*We make no changes to forecast, recommendation, and target price at the time of result announcement.
The key issue raised at the time was that the transaction would give GPSC a monopoly on power purchase agreements in Map Ta Phut, Thailand’s largest industrial park.
Despite what appeared to be a non-issue from an anti-trust point of view (as discussed in Anti-Trust Should Be A Non-Issue In The GPSC/Glow Deal), on 11 October 2018 the Energy Regulatory Commission (“ERC”) notified the public of its decision not to give its approval for the transaction. Glow’s shares declined ~6% on the news.
An appeal to reconsider ERC’s decision was dismissed on 14 December.
After an announcement alluding to multiple interests for Engie’s stake, on the 27 December Glow announced that ERC has resolved to approve the merger with GPSC, provided Glow sells its Glow SPP1 plant before or at the same time as the merger. A number of conditions were also attached to some of the remaining power plants.
No price has been disclosed for the 69.11% stake in Glow, ex the SPP1 plant.
The current upside is (at best) 6.8% to an indicative offer price Bt95.86, assuming Glow can sell SPP1 at the same multiple under GPSC’s initial offer and GPSC continues to assign the same multiple to Glow even after the sale of SPP1. That would appear a stretch. However, SPP1 is estimated to account for just ~5% of Glow’s energy output and revenue. And media are reporting Engie itself may acquire the plant, which should smooth and expedite the completion of the transaction.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
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We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.
If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.
EPG reports FY3Q19 net profit of Bt225m (+24%YoY,-14%QoQ). The FY9M19 result was in line with and accounts for 69% of our full-year forecast.
A YoY increase in earnings was mainly caused by sales contribution from automotive segment (+28%YoY). While a QoQ fall in earnings was due to a seasonal drop in sales of thermal insulators segment and narrow gross profit margins due to rising raw material costs.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY19-20E earnings driven by growth in every business units: 1) sales recovery from EPP segment (22% of total sales in FY9M19) from changing its product mix toward more on food packaging; 2) revenue contribution from Flexiglass after acquired it during FY1Q19, and, 3) consistent sales growth for Aeroflex (28% of total sales)
We maintain our BUY rating with the target price of *Bt10.40 derived from its 2-years average trading range of 25xPE’19E.
*We make no changes to forecast, recommendation, and target price at the time of result announcement.
The key issue raised at the time was that the transaction would give GPSC a monopoly on power purchase agreements in Map Ta Phut, Thailand’s largest industrial park.
Despite what appeared to be a non-issue from an anti-trust point of view (as discussed in Anti-Trust Should Be A Non-Issue In The GPSC/Glow Deal), on 11 October 2018 the Energy Regulatory Commission (“ERC”) notified the public of its decision not to give its approval for the transaction. Glow’s shares declined ~6% on the news.
An appeal to reconsider ERC’s decision was dismissed on 14 December.
After an announcement alluding to multiple interests for Engie’s stake, on the 27 December Glow announced that ERC has resolved to approve the merger with GPSC, provided Glow sells its Glow SPP1 plant before or at the same time as the merger. A number of conditions were also attached to some of the remaining power plants.
No price has been disclosed for the 69.11% stake in Glow, ex the SPP1 plant.
The current upside is (at best) 6.8% to an indicative offer price Bt95.86, assuming Glow can sell SPP1 at the same multiple under GPSC’s initial offer and GPSC continues to assign the same multiple to Glow even after the sale of SPP1. That would appear a stretch. However, SPP1 is estimated to account for just ~5% of Glow’s energy output and revenue. And media are reporting Engie itself may acquire the plant, which should smooth and expedite the completion of the transaction.
We caught up with Intuch Group this week to check how things were going on with them and their subsidiaries, AIS and Thaicom. It’s good to touch base, since it’s been a while, and many things have changed in the interim:
Intuch self-congratulated themselves for a narrowing of their discount to NAV from 28% to 20% in 2018 while introducing three new investments and announced the breakeven of their shopping network, a joint venture with Hyundai.
Wongnai, an online foodie guide and one of Intuch’s largest investments, underperformed our revenue forecast significantly, but managed to post impressive revenue growth nevertheless. While profitable, their rapid expansion also means they are unlikely to meet their own internal profitability expectations.
Thaicom posted a loss in Q4 and almost non-existent earnings in 2018 largely due to asset impairments, but there is some hope in the future with the government’s various PPP (public-private partnership) schemes mentioned in the meeting.
AIS, the Group’s flagship company, posted flat earnings of Bt30bn and is in the process of reversing a decline in revenue market share through aggressive push in enterprise and consumer services.
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We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.
If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.
EPG reports FY3Q19 net profit of Bt225m (+24%YoY,-14%QoQ). The FY9M19 result was in line with and accounts for 69% of our full-year forecast.
A YoY increase in earnings was mainly caused by sales contribution from automotive segment (+28%YoY). While a QoQ fall in earnings was due to a seasonal drop in sales of thermal insulators segment and narrow gross profit margins due to rising raw material costs.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY19-20E earnings driven by growth in every business units: 1) sales recovery from EPP segment (22% of total sales in FY9M19) from changing its product mix toward more on food packaging; 2) revenue contribution from Flexiglass after acquired it during FY1Q19, and, 3) consistent sales growth for Aeroflex (28% of total sales)
We maintain our BUY rating with the target price of *Bt10.40 derived from its 2-years average trading range of 25xPE’19E.
*We make no changes to forecast, recommendation, and target price at the time of result announcement.
The key issue raised at the time was that the transaction would give GPSC a monopoly on power purchase agreements in Map Ta Phut, Thailand’s largest industrial park.
Despite what appeared to be a non-issue from an anti-trust point of view (as discussed in Anti-Trust Should Be A Non-Issue In The GPSC/Glow Deal), on 11 October 2018 the Energy Regulatory Commission (“ERC”) notified the public of its decision not to give its approval for the transaction. Glow’s shares declined ~6% on the news.
An appeal to reconsider ERC’s decision was dismissed on 14 December.
After an announcement alluding to multiple interests for Engie’s stake, on the 27 December Glow announced that ERC has resolved to approve the merger with GPSC, provided Glow sells its Glow SPP1 plant before or at the same time as the merger. A number of conditions were also attached to some of the remaining power plants.
No price has been disclosed for the 69.11% stake in Glow, ex the SPP1 plant.
The current upside is (at best) 6.8% to an indicative offer price Bt95.86, assuming Glow can sell SPP1 at the same multiple under GPSC’s initial offer and GPSC continues to assign the same multiple to Glow even after the sale of SPP1. That would appear a stretch. However, SPP1 is estimated to account for just ~5% of Glow’s energy output and revenue. And media are reporting Engie itself may acquire the plant, which should smooth and expedite the completion of the transaction.
We caught up with Intuch Group this week to check how things were going on with them and their subsidiaries, AIS and Thaicom. It’s good to touch base, since it’s been a while, and many things have changed in the interim:
Intuch self-congratulated themselves for a narrowing of their discount to NAV from 28% to 20% in 2018 while introducing three new investments and announced the breakeven of their shopping network, a joint venture with Hyundai.
Wongnai, an online foodie guide and one of Intuch’s largest investments, underperformed our revenue forecast significantly, but managed to post impressive revenue growth nevertheless. While profitable, their rapid expansion also means they are unlikely to meet their own internal profitability expectations.
Thaicom posted a loss in Q4 and almost non-existent earnings in 2018 largely due to asset impairments, but there is some hope in the future with the government’s various PPP (public-private partnership) schemes mentioned in the meeting.
AIS, the Group’s flagship company, posted flat earnings of Bt30bn and is in the process of reversing a decline in revenue market share through aggressive push in enterprise and consumer services.
GOLD reported FY1Q19 net profit of Bt459m (-26%YoY, -13%QoQ), the lowest in past six quarters. The FY1Q19 result was 21% of our full-year forecast and 10% lower than our forecast.
The disappointed FY1Q19 result (ending Dec 18) was mainly due to flat sales from real estate at Bt3.76bn which contribute 89% of total sales. Meanwhile, gross margin also fell to 30.4% compared to 32.3% in FY1Q18 due to higher marketing cost. We expect FY1Q19 earnings to be the bottom out as the company adjusted down unit selling price in order to boost sales during the last quarter last year.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY2019-20 performance and beyond driven by new projects and upside from sale of FYI CENTER to GVREIT and operate the Sam Yan Mitrtown large mixed-use complex.
We maintain our forecast and BUY rating with a target price of Bt15 based on 13xPE’19E.
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EPG reports FY3Q19 net profit of Bt225m (+24%YoY,-14%QoQ). The FY9M19 result was in line with and accounts for 69% of our full-year forecast.
A YoY increase in earnings was mainly caused by sales contribution from automotive segment (+28%YoY). While a QoQ fall in earnings was due to a seasonal drop in sales of thermal insulators segment and narrow gross profit margins due to rising raw material costs.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY19-20E earnings driven by growth in every business units: 1) sales recovery from EPP segment (22% of total sales in FY9M19) from changing its product mix toward more on food packaging; 2) revenue contribution from Flexiglass after acquired it during FY1Q19, and, 3) consistent sales growth for Aeroflex (28% of total sales)
We maintain our BUY rating with the target price of *Bt10.40 derived from its 2-years average trading range of 25xPE’19E.
*We make no changes to forecast, recommendation, and target price at the time of result announcement.
The key issue raised at the time was that the transaction would give GPSC a monopoly on power purchase agreements in Map Ta Phut, Thailand’s largest industrial park.
Despite what appeared to be a non-issue from an anti-trust point of view (as discussed in Anti-Trust Should Be A Non-Issue In The GPSC/Glow Deal), on 11 October 2018 the Energy Regulatory Commission (“ERC”) notified the public of its decision not to give its approval for the transaction. Glow’s shares declined ~6% on the news.
An appeal to reconsider ERC’s decision was dismissed on 14 December.
After an announcement alluding to multiple interests for Engie’s stake, on the 27 December Glow announced that ERC has resolved to approve the merger with GPSC, provided Glow sells its Glow SPP1 plant before or at the same time as the merger. A number of conditions were also attached to some of the remaining power plants.
No price has been disclosed for the 69.11% stake in Glow, ex the SPP1 plant.
The current upside is (at best) 6.8% to an indicative offer price Bt95.86, assuming Glow can sell SPP1 at the same multiple under GPSC’s initial offer and GPSC continues to assign the same multiple to Glow even after the sale of SPP1. That would appear a stretch. However, SPP1 is estimated to account for just ~5% of Glow’s energy output and revenue. And media are reporting Engie itself may acquire the plant, which should smooth and expedite the completion of the transaction.
We caught up with Intuch Group this week to check how things were going on with them and their subsidiaries, AIS and Thaicom. It’s good to touch base, since it’s been a while, and many things have changed in the interim:
Intuch self-congratulated themselves for a narrowing of their discount to NAV from 28% to 20% in 2018 while introducing three new investments and announced the breakeven of their shopping network, a joint venture with Hyundai.
Wongnai, an online foodie guide and one of Intuch’s largest investments, underperformed our revenue forecast significantly, but managed to post impressive revenue growth nevertheless. While profitable, their rapid expansion also means they are unlikely to meet their own internal profitability expectations.
Thaicom posted a loss in Q4 and almost non-existent earnings in 2018 largely due to asset impairments, but there is some hope in the future with the government’s various PPP (public-private partnership) schemes mentioned in the meeting.
AIS, the Group’s flagship company, posted flat earnings of Bt30bn and is in the process of reversing a decline in revenue market share through aggressive push in enterprise and consumer services.
GOLD reported FY1Q19 net profit of Bt459m (-26%YoY, -13%QoQ), the lowest in past six quarters. The FY1Q19 result was 21% of our full-year forecast and 10% lower than our forecast.
The disappointed FY1Q19 result (ending Dec 18) was mainly due to flat sales from real estate at Bt3.76bn which contribute 89% of total sales. Meanwhile, gross margin also fell to 30.4% compared to 32.3% in FY1Q18 due to higher marketing cost. We expect FY1Q19 earnings to be the bottom out as the company adjusted down unit selling price in order to boost sales during the last quarter last year.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY2019-20 performance and beyond driven by new projects and upside from sale of FYI CENTER to GVREIT and operate the Sam Yan Mitrtown large mixed-use complex.
We maintain our forecast and BUY rating with a target price of Bt15 based on 13xPE’19E.
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NYT reported 4Q18 net profit of Bt90m (-11%YoY, -24%QoQ), the lowest level in the past eight quarters. The 2018 result was in-line with our forecast.
A drop in 4Q18 earnings was caused by one-time expense on property tax, which we expected at around Bt10-13m.
4Q18 revenue also remained flat at Bt368m (-1%YoY, +3.5%YoY) as number of vehicles that passed through the A5 terminal slightly dropped along the country’s car export unit to 281,853 units (-3%YoY, -5%QoQ).
The company announced Bt0.30 of annual dividend or equivalent to 5.7% (XD on 3th of May 2019)
We maintain our 2019-20E earnings forecast and still rank NYT as a BUY with a target price of *Bt7.60 based on DCF (8.8%WACC, 1%TG) which implies 20xPE’2019E
*We make no changes to forecast, recommendation, and target price at the time of result announcement.
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Global Semiconductor Sales for December 2018 amounted to $38.2 billion, down a record 7.0% MoM, according to the latest data published by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The December data reflects a sharp acceleration of a downward trend which began in November and comes as little surprise following an earnings season characterised by profit warnings led by industry giants such as Apple, Samsung and Nvidia.
The December decline amounted to ~$3 billion in absolute terms, far less than the roughly $15 billion that failed to materialise in fourth quarter sector revenues and implying that substantial amounts of inventory still remain to be consumed from within the supply chain.
As such we anticipate monthly semiconductor sales continuing to decline through April-May timeframe before stabilizing and returning to growth thereafter. We now anticipate growth to moderate significantly from the 13.7% experienced in 2018 to just 1% in 2019.
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Global Semiconductor Sales for December 2018 amounted to $38.2 billion, down a record 7.0% MoM, according to the latest data published by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The December data reflects a sharp acceleration of a downward trend which began in November and comes as little surprise following an earnings season characterised by profit warnings led by industry giants such as Apple, Samsung and Nvidia.
The December decline amounted to ~$3 billion in absolute terms, far less than the roughly $15 billion that failed to materialise in fourth quarter sector revenues and implying that substantial amounts of inventory still remain to be consumed from within the supply chain.
As such we anticipate monthly semiconductor sales continuing to decline through April-May timeframe before stabilizing and returning to growth thereafter. We now anticipate growth to moderate significantly from the 13.7% experienced in 2018 to just 1% in 2019.
This week’s offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarmais filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.
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The key issue raised at the time was that the transaction would give GPSC a monopoly on power purchase agreements in Map Ta Phut, Thailand’s largest industrial park.
Despite what appeared to be a non-issue from an anti-trust point of view (as discussed in Anti-Trust Should Be A Non-Issue In The GPSC/Glow Deal), on 11 October 2018 the Energy Regulatory Commission (“ERC”) notified the public of its decision not to give its approval for the transaction. Glow’s shares declined ~6% on the news.
An appeal to reconsider ERC’s decision was dismissed on 14 December.
After an announcement alluding to multiple interests for Engie’s stake, on the 27 December Glow announced that ERC has resolved to approve the merger with GPSC, provided Glow sells its Glow SPP1 plant before or at the same time as the merger. A number of conditions were also attached to some of the remaining power plants.
No price has been disclosed for the 69.11% stake in Glow, ex the SPP1 plant.
The current upside is (at best) 6.8% to an indicative offer price Bt95.86, assuming Glow can sell SPP1 at the same multiple under GPSC’s initial offer and GPSC continues to assign the same multiple to Glow even after the sale of SPP1. That would appear a stretch. However, SPP1 is estimated to account for just ~5% of Glow’s energy output and revenue. And media are reporting Engie itself may acquire the plant, which should smooth and expedite the completion of the transaction.
We caught up with Intuch Group this week to check how things were going on with them and their subsidiaries, AIS and Thaicom. It’s good to touch base, since it’s been a while, and many things have changed in the interim:
Intuch self-congratulated themselves for a narrowing of their discount to NAV from 28% to 20% in 2018 while introducing three new investments and announced the breakeven of their shopping network, a joint venture with Hyundai.
Wongnai, an online foodie guide and one of Intuch’s largest investments, underperformed our revenue forecast significantly, but managed to post impressive revenue growth nevertheless. While profitable, their rapid expansion also means they are unlikely to meet their own internal profitability expectations.
Thaicom posted a loss in Q4 and almost non-existent earnings in 2018 largely due to asset impairments, but there is some hope in the future with the government’s various PPP (public-private partnership) schemes mentioned in the meeting.
AIS, the Group’s flagship company, posted flat earnings of Bt30bn and is in the process of reversing a decline in revenue market share through aggressive push in enterprise and consumer services.
GOLD reported FY1Q19 net profit of Bt459m (-26%YoY, -13%QoQ), the lowest in past six quarters. The FY1Q19 result was 21% of our full-year forecast and 10% lower than our forecast.
The disappointed FY1Q19 result (ending Dec 18) was mainly due to flat sales from real estate at Bt3.76bn which contribute 89% of total sales. Meanwhile, gross margin also fell to 30.4% compared to 32.3% in FY1Q18 due to higher marketing cost. We expect FY1Q19 earnings to be the bottom out as the company adjusted down unit selling price in order to boost sales during the last quarter last year.
We maintain our positive outlook toward its FY2019-20 performance and beyond driven by new projects and upside from sale of FYI CENTER to GVREIT and operate the Sam Yan Mitrtown large mixed-use complex.
We maintain our forecast and BUY rating with a target price of Bt15 based on 13xPE’19E.
NYT reported 4Q18 net profit of Bt90m (-11%YoY, -24%QoQ), the lowest level in the past eight quarters. The 2018 result was in-line with our forecast.
A drop in 4Q18 earnings was caused by one-time expense on property tax, which we expected at around Bt10-13m.
4Q18 revenue also remained flat at Bt368m (-1%YoY, +3.5%YoY) as number of vehicles that passed through the A5 terminal slightly dropped along the country’s car export unit to 281,853 units (-3%YoY, -5%QoQ).
The company announced Bt0.30 of annual dividend or equivalent to 5.7% (XD on 3th of May 2019)
We maintain our 2019-20E earnings forecast and still rank NYT as a BUY with a target price of *Bt7.60 based on DCF (8.8%WACC, 1%TG) which implies 20xPE’2019E
*We make no changes to forecast, recommendation, and target price at the time of result announcement.
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