Thailand

• We have a positive view toward the acquisition of Unilever’s direct sales business as it align with the company’s business strategy to strengthen Entertainmerce business especially on outbound sales. Excluding 
• Our expectation over earnings recovery in 2022E will be driven by 1.) 35% revenue growth supported by recovery of existing MPC segments and consolidation of ULife,2.) an absence of heavy 
• We expect RS to post 4Q21 net loss at Bt10m (compared with Bt0.9m loss in 3Q21 and Bt103m profit in 4Q20).

• We expect SPA to incur the seven consecutive loss quarter in 4Q21 at Bt69m due to its operation below EBIT breakeven level.
• We expect operating loss to be lower both YoY and QoQ due to more efficient cost and expense management.
• Meanwhile, we expect 4Q21 revenue at Bt40m (-51%YoY, +209%QoQ), which will be affected by weak domestic demand.

• Share price lags as earnings bias turns positive
• 4Q21 likely up YoY and significantly higher QoQ
• Earnings bias positive

HMPRO’s share price has begun to recover, rising 8% in the past 12 months but underperforming the SET by 2ppt. We expect a strong recovery in 4Q21, building up to a greater potential rebound in 2022. The earnings bias is currently positive, underpinned by resumption of store expansion (2-4/yr), strong renovation demand and a potential pick-up in residential project launches. Thus the 1.19x 1-yr PEG is attractive. Re-iterate BUY with a DCF-based TP of THB16.9 (7.5% WACC, 3.6% G).

• Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227,based on DCF implying 24xPE’22.Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and ARPU uplift. We believe ADVANC will see steady 5G
• Expect blended ARPU will show positive growth in 1Q22onwards. ADVANC expects postpaid ARPU to increase from mass 5G adoption that will occur in 2022-23.Prepaid segment continue seeing intense pricing war
• As of now, we believe ADVANC’s 2022 net profit will steadily increase from the gradual recovery in tourism and the reversal in ARPU from 5G subscribers.

• Analyst meeting came out with negative tone regarding 22E outlook.We cut our TP by 7% to Bt95.8,derived from 38.4xPE’22E (+1SD of 5Y trading average), to factor in earnings downgrade. But
• Recent drop in share price factored in concern on rising material costs and delay in launching new factory which should be a short-term issue and should provide opportunity share accumulation
• We cut our 22E earnings forecast down by 7% to factor in lower margin due to rising copper material costs and lower revenue due to delay in launching new factory.

• Upgrade to BUY with a TP of Bt3.9, based on 30xPE’22E,which is its pre-COVID bottom level.The 27% drop in share price from Jul 21 peak priced in concern over 3Q21
• Expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt854m (+234%YoY,-45%QoQ), decline due to weak revenue growth, and narrow margin.
• Foresee momentum in 1Q22 arising from the Omicron variant,given the amount of infection patients grew roughly to 7-13k cases per day.Along with vaccines rollout, which should be realize in 1Q22

• We reiterate a BUY rating for CBG with a target price of Bt131 based on 35xPE’22E, the average of the Thailand energy drink stocks.
• We expect CBG to post 4Q21 net profit of Bt674m (-23%YoY, +12%QoQ), a recovery from the lowest level in the past nine quarters in 3Q21.
• We foresee 2022E earnings to hit the record high at Bt3.7bn (+32%YoY)driven by a solid revenue growth at +25%YoY from recovering sales in Thailand and CLMV market from low base

• We expect the company to report 4Q21 net profit at Bt159m.(+110%YoY +14%QoQ), an all-time high level. YoY and QoQ expansion will be driven by a spike in equity income Bt102m 
• Anticipate revenue to hit all-time high at Bt1.4bn in 4Q21, mainly driven by high season for logistics segment and consolidation of overseas business.
• Solid outlook for warehouse & yard management in 2022, Potential upside from business expansion via multi-model strategy with JVs

• We expect PTG to post a net loss of Bt174m in 4Q21E, a first-time quarterly loss dragged by decline in marketing margin of oil retail business.
• The price cap implemented by government on diesel during 4Q21 dragged the marketing margin to Bt1.35/liter (-30% YoY, -28% QoQ), well below the breakeven level of Bt1.6/liter.
• We expect the earnings to recover from loss 1Q22 onwards and gradually pick up each quarter in 2022, We are more positive on the 2H22-2023 outlook.

• Downgrade to HOLD rating due to limited upside from current market price, with a TP of Bt14.60 based on 1.4xPBV’22E, which is ASIA ex-Japan Material sector. In our view
• We expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt310m (-45%YoY,+27%QoQ), on the back of revenue growth, together with margin expansion.
• Maintain 2022 positive view, following better biodiesel and fatty alcohol demand volume after lockdown easing, upswing in personal healthcare products, and new Bio-complex project.

• We maintain BUY rating for HMPRO with a target price to Bt16.10, derived from 35xPE’22E, or implying 40% premium to Thai Consumer Discretionary.
• We expect HMPRO to report 4Q21 net profit at Bt1.57bn (+2%YoY, +80%QoQ),thanks to stores sales recovery (SSSG at +10%YoY) supported by pent-up demand, demand from home renovation after a flood
• We foresee 2022E earnings to grow to Bt6bn close to pre-COVID levels (+16%YoY) supported by 1) a solid revenue growth at 4% close to Thailand GDP growth from re-opening stores

• We expect the company’s operating performance to improve gradually from the bottom in 3Q21as there are number of quality movies to be released after been postponed upon restricted measures induced 
• Expect the company to report Bt47m net profit in 4Q21, seven-quarter high in terms of core business operation
• EBITDA in 4Q21 is expected to turn positive as it driven by pent-up demand after lockdown together with impressive ticket sales from Spider-Man: No Way Home.

• Maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt162. Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth; a resilient balance sheet; and undemanding valuation.
• BBL was optimistic about the economic growth in 2022 given the limited impacts of the Omicron variant and successful vaccination rollout.
• The bank’s lending strategy in 2022 remained concentrated on a rise in corporate and international loans. 

• The turnaround of Asian currencies is likely to continue with growth resurfacing in the region ex-China and the interest rate differential with the rest of emerging markets narrowing.
• The main risks to watch are whether the slowdown in China worsens and weighs on the region as a whole and whether central banks embark on FX interventions again.
• While the overall view on Asian currencies is constructive, I prefer cross-country trades to take advantage of differences arising from idiosyncratic drivers and to eliminate the dollar risk.

• We believe a high raw material cost will not be sustain given U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts crude oil prices to decline in 2022.We reiterate BUY rating for TOA
• We expect TOA to report 4Q21 net profit at Bt365m (-26%YoY, +36%QoQ),
• We forecast 2022E earnings to hit Bt2bn (+13%YoY) supported by 1) demand for painting and construction materials from hotel, restaurants, and other related tourism destinations (re-painting demand)

• Maintain BUY rating and roll forward valuations to FY22E, with a new target price of Bt23 (up 5% from previous TP),based on 10.3xPE’22, which is close to its 10-years historical
• Our ratings reflect positive view on pet food, frozen VAP, and aqua feed demand recovery post lockdown, and solid margin from baht weakening.
• The spin-off of AAI via IPO issuance will unlock its value and growth potential and we leave it as an upside to our TP.

• Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. The improving sales volume and rising oil price should aid the earnings momentum in 1Q22 and ahead.We maintain the BUY
• Expect 1Q22 earnings to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of 1) 4% and 2% QoQ growth in sales volume and ASP, respectively. And 2) No significant impairment
• Positive 2022 earnings outlook as the sales volume is expected to increase by +12% YoY to 467kBOED, and ASP by 5% to US$46/BOE.

• Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) have moved up over the last 8 trading session to trade at or closer to their VTO prices.
• Trading at the VTO price, we recommend selling Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) rather than run the risk of deal break or waiting 3-5 months to be paid out.
• A safer trade is to buy True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and sell Total Access Communication (DTAC TB). There will be index trades to do if the merger is approved. 

• We reiterate our BUY rating with a new target price of Bt174. Our BUY call reflects (1) steady growth ahead from improving economic recovery; (2) adequate reserves against new NPLs
• Focus on the quality of growth and NPL management ahead.
• The bank guided lending growth of 6-8% YoY in 2022 with an emphasis on a rise in retail loans and SME loans.