Thailand

• Excluding extraordinary items, ERW’s 4Q21 normalized loss was at Bt371m, the eighth consecutive quarter loss, due to operations under EBIT breakeven.
• 4Q21 negative EBITDA declined to -Bt29m compared to -Bt30m in 4Q20 and -Bt243m in 3Q21 backed by recovering overall hotel operation.
• Lockdown easing and launching ‘Rao Tiew Duay Kan phase 3’ program during 4Q21 resulted in improving occupancy rate (ex. Hop INN segment) to 30%  up from 25% in 4Q20 

• Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone.We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 1Q22 led by solid gasoline,diesel and jet fuel spreads. SPRC is among our top picks
• We expect the market GRM improve to US$7.0/BBL level in 1Q22 (+17% QoQ) and maintain at high levels in 2022 backed by strong product spreads due to global economic recovery.
• The diesel spread grew to US$16.4/bbl QTD, compared to US$11.5/bbl in 4Q21. Gasoline and Jet fuel spreads also inched up QTD to US$15.8/bbl (+US$0.4/bbl QoQ) and US$13.0/bbl (+US$2.8/bbl QoQ) respectively.

• We upgrade our recommendation for CBG from HOLD to BUY with a new target price of Bt115 (-9% from previous TP), derived from 35xPE’22E, the average of the Thai energy 
• We forecast 2022E earnings to recover to Bt3.3bn (+16%YoY) supported by (1) recovering sales in CLMV market, (2) Solid liquor’s distribution revenue growth, and (3) new product launches in Thailand.
• Expect earnings to bounce back to roughly Bt800m in 2Q22,while we believe gross profit margin had already bottomed in 4Q21and expecting it to recover in 1Q22,supported by higher sales contribution 

• Maintain BUY with target price of Bt12.10, derived from DCF methodology (WACC=9.6%, g=0%), implying 1.1xPBV’22E.
• Excluding gain from asset revaluation of Bt300m, 4Q21 core profit remained flat both YoY and QoQ, in line with our forecast due to flat revenue at Bt2.5bn.
• 2021 core profit grew slightly at Bt8.7bn (+1.5%YoY) while NAV increased slightly to Bt11.127

• Both G J Steel PCL (GJS TB) and G Steel (GSTEL TB) have announced Form 247-4, the Notification on Receipt of the Tender Offer for Securities, from Nippon Steel.
• As expected, the Offer period is for 25 days, between 23 February and 29 March. The payment is the 31 March. 
• GJS is trading tight to terms. The Offer is unconditional.

• Conference call came with positive tone on 22E performance. Upgrade to HOLD rating with TP of Bt5.09 based on the tender offer price under the DTAC merger. However
• TRUE’s stock price crashed yesterday as investors have sold on fact of merger progress. We will revise our forecast once management of TRUE reveals detailed plans regarding the merger.
• Maintain our 22E forecast that TRUE will not be profitable, despite improvements. TRUE’s management expects to turn a profit in 2022. However, we do not believe that the revenue growth

• Expect EBITDA-break-even period for hospitality business by the second half of 2022E when the foreign tourists arrive at a pace of at least 400k people per month. Meanwhile
• Long-Term growth prospect remain intact given number of hotel room expansion at 15%CAGR in 2023-26E.
• Recent rally in stock price has priced in positive sentiment toward overall Thai tourism sector after restriction measure has eased.However,faster-than-expected recovery in foreign tourist inbound remain an upside risk for22-23E

• Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone,we expect the dip in oil marketing margin (diesel price cap) to persist till 1H22, while revamping oil and F&B sales volume 
• Expect the 1Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from improving oil and F&B sales volume, while dip in oil marketing margin would drag the earning YoY.
• Positive 2022 outlook with a 9% EPS growth. The post COVID-19 economic recovery is expected to drive the oil and F&B sales volume 10 to 15%,which will offset the 9%

• The 4Q21 net profit rose to an all time high of Bt3.0bn (+65 YoY, +92% QoQ). excluding FX and other extraordinary items the recurring profit was Bt2.7bn (+120% YoY,+19% QoQ)
• The result came out better than our expectation, The 2021 net profit rose to a record high of Bt7.8bn (+79% YoY), 14% above our forecast.
• The 4Q21 earnings growth was due to 1st time revenue recognition from GSRC power project – Unit 2 and equity income from INTUCH.

• The BOD approved TOP’s recapitalization plan which includes 1)disposal of GPSC stake (by 2Q22) and 2) capital increase (within 2022). The proceeds will be used for repaying bridge loans raised
• The company will raise around Bt22.4bn by sale of its 10.78% stake in GPSC. And around Bt12-to-14bn by equity offering of up to 239.2m newly issued shares with green shoe
• Positive view on recapitalization plan, given the investment in CAP will provide an entry to high potential Olefin’s business segment. Also,We see the net EPS dilution to be below 5%

• Last week analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone. we see the overhang from rise in fuel cost (in 2021) to remain till 2H22, and later recover 
• Expect the 1Q22 earnings to improve QoQ,from 1)Slightly improved SPP margin from upward Ft (tariff) adjustment and  2) Increasing IU sales. However, spike in fuel cost would drag SPP margins
• We are more positive on 2H22,2023 outlook,as we expect a 15% EPS growth in 2023 from recovering SPP margins, Increased IU sales volume, and higher share of profit from Avaada

• We initiate our coverage of KTB with a HOLD rating and a target price of Bt15.00.Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model(ROE 6.8%, growth 2%), implying 0.6x PBV’22E
• Given the improving economic growth ahead, loans will continue to increase, but at a moderate rate
• Potential credit cost reduction is likely given stable asset quality and high coverage ratio

• Reiterate BUY rating with TP of Bt202 based on 14.4xPE’22E,which is close to -1SD of its 10-years mean. Our rating factors in robust outlook on cement demand recovery, hence offering
• Its 4Q21 net profit was at 1.1bn (+14%YoY, +57%QoQ), rebound fueled by strong revenue growth, together with margin expansion.
• Foresee 1Q22 earnings to remain strong QoQ, backed by demand recovery post-lockdown and heighten cement prices in local and overseas market.

• Maintain HOLD rating given limited upside from current market price, with a TP of Bt14.20 based on 1.4xPBV’22E, which is ASIA ex-Japan Material sector. Our rating reflects better biodiesel 
• Its 4Q21 core profit was at Bt347m (-39%YoY,+42%QoQ), supported by strong revenue growth and wider margin.
• In our view, 22-23E core profit will grow at 2%/5% due to anticipation of prices decline, to offset by stable ME and FA demand.

• BCPG’s 4Q21 net profit fall to Bt238m (-24% YoY, -65% QoQ),a 16-quarter low, mainly dragged by FX loss. The recurring profit stood at Bt583m (+9% YoY,-18% QoQ),inline with our expectation
• The revenue recognition from new 20MW project in Japan (4Q21) resulted the YoY growth. While QoQ drop was due to seasonal weak hydro operation.
• The company announced divestment of its full stake (33%) in Indonesia geothermal power project. BCPG will book a gain of B1.6bn from the deal

• Upgrade to BUY rating with new TP of Bt269 (up 19% from previous TP), based on DCF, implying 24.1xPE’22. Analyst meeting came out with positive tone about new strategic direction
• Expect Enterprise revenue to contribute 20% of total revenue by 2025. Management believes this segment will reach 20% of total revenue by 2024.We believe differently as we expect further competition
• Revised 22E and 23E net profit upwards by 4% and 13%, respectively, to factor in high revenue growth. While 2022 will demonstrate healthy net profit growth, we believe enterprise segment 

• The market cap review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) starts in a couple of weeks.
• Using the last close, we see JMT Network Services (JMT) and Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA) as potential inclusions, replacing Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB).
• Ratch Group PCL is the lowest ranked index constituent and needs to move 15% higher to avoid deletion. Passive trackers will need to sell nearly 4 days of ADV.

• We anticipate KEX earnings performance to experience net loss for at least in the next two quarters while expecting to see market consolidation within the express delivery industry in Thailand
• First net loss since listed at Bt604m in 4Q21 pressured by aggressive price cutting strategy and cost arise from spare resources on labour and transportation. This resulted 
• Report Bt47m net profit in 2021 (-98%YoY) due to a price war which resulted in a drastic fall in average selling price. (contracted 20-25%YoY in 2021)

• These five value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the outlook for earnings
• Of these, we believe Kasikorn Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also highlight Bangkok Bank positively
• Of the other Thai banks, we think that TMBThanchart could be a potential “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, driving down its cost of risk further

• We maintain BUY rating with target price at Bt36.50, based on 30xPE’22E, the three years average trading range.
• We expect OSP to post 4Q21 net profit of Bt801m (-6%YoY, +38%QoQ), a recovery from 3Q21, the lowest level since listed. QoQ improvement will be supported by recovering beverage sales
• We foresee 2022E earnings to hit record high at Bt3.6bn(+14%YoY)driven by 1) a solid revenue growth at +4.7%YoY from recovering sales in beverage sales in Thailand and new products launch 

• We expect 4Q21E net profit at Bt736m (+7%YoY, -21%QoQ), dropping QoQ due to lower equity income contribution from power plant business.
• Meanwhile, 4Q21 earnings from tap water business will reach 19 quarter low at Bt624m due to lower demand from both industrial customers and PWA.
• Revise down 2021-23 earnings slightly to reflect weaker demand for tap water.

• We have a positive view toward the acquisition of Unilever’s direct sales business as it align with the company’s business strategy to strengthen Entertainmerce business especially on outbound sales. Excluding 
• Our expectation over earnings recovery in 2022E will be driven by 1.) 35% revenue growth supported by recovery of existing MPC segments and consolidation of ULife,2.) an absence of heavy 
• We expect RS to post 4Q21 net loss at Bt10m (compared with Bt0.9m loss in 3Q21 and Bt103m profit in 4Q20).

• We expect SPA to incur the seven consecutive loss quarter in 4Q21 at Bt69m due to its operation below EBIT breakeven level.
• We expect operating loss to be lower both YoY and QoQ due to more efficient cost and expense management.
• Meanwhile, we expect 4Q21 revenue at Bt40m (-51%YoY, +209%QoQ), which will be affected by weak domestic demand.

• Share price lags as earnings bias turns positive
• 4Q21 likely up YoY and significantly higher QoQ
• Earnings bias positive

HMPRO’s share price has begun to recover, rising 8% in the past 12 months but underperforming the SET by 2ppt. We expect a strong recovery in 4Q21, building up to a greater potential rebound in 2022. The earnings bias is currently positive, underpinned by resumption of store expansion (2-4/yr), strong renovation demand and a potential pick-up in residential project launches. Thus the 1.19x 1-yr PEG is attractive. Re-iterate BUY with a DCF-based TP of THB16.9 (7.5% WACC, 3.6% G).

• Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227,based on DCF implying 24xPE’22.Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and ARPU uplift. We believe ADVANC will see steady 5G
• Expect blended ARPU will show positive growth in 1Q22onwards. ADVANC expects postpaid ARPU to increase from mass 5G adoption that will occur in 2022-23.Prepaid segment continue seeing intense pricing war
• As of now, we believe ADVANC’s 2022 net profit will steadily increase from the gradual recovery in tourism and the reversal in ARPU from 5G subscribers.

• Analyst meeting came out with negative tone regarding 22E outlook.We cut our TP by 7% to Bt95.8,derived from 38.4xPE’22E (+1SD of 5Y trading average), to factor in earnings downgrade. But
• Recent drop in share price factored in concern on rising material costs and delay in launching new factory which should be a short-term issue and should provide opportunity share accumulation
• We cut our 22E earnings forecast down by 7% to factor in lower margin due to rising copper material costs and lower revenue due to delay in launching new factory.

• Upgrade to BUY with a TP of Bt3.9, based on 30xPE’22E,which is its pre-COVID bottom level.The 27% drop in share price from Jul 21 peak priced in concern over 3Q21
• Expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt854m (+234%YoY,-45%QoQ), decline due to weak revenue growth, and narrow margin.
• Foresee momentum in 1Q22 arising from the Omicron variant,given the amount of infection patients grew roughly to 7-13k cases per day.Along with vaccines rollout, which should be realize in 1Q22

• We reiterate a BUY rating for CBG with a target price of Bt131 based on 35xPE’22E, the average of the Thailand energy drink stocks.
• We expect CBG to post 4Q21 net profit of Bt674m (-23%YoY, +12%QoQ), a recovery from the lowest level in the past nine quarters in 3Q21.
• We foresee 2022E earnings to hit the record high at Bt3.7bn (+32%YoY)driven by a solid revenue growth at +25%YoY from recovering sales in Thailand and CLMV market from low base

• We expect the company to report 4Q21 net profit at Bt159m.(+110%YoY +14%QoQ), an all-time high level. YoY and QoQ expansion will be driven by a spike in equity income Bt102m 
• Anticipate revenue to hit all-time high at Bt1.4bn in 4Q21, mainly driven by high season for logistics segment and consolidation of overseas business.
• Solid outlook for warehouse & yard management in 2022, Potential upside from business expansion via multi-model strategy with JVs

• We expect PTG to post a net loss of Bt174m in 4Q21E, a first-time quarterly loss dragged by decline in marketing margin of oil retail business.
• The price cap implemented by government on diesel during 4Q21 dragged the marketing margin to Bt1.35/liter (-30% YoY, -28% QoQ), well below the breakeven level of Bt1.6/liter.
• We expect the earnings to recover from loss 1Q22 onwards and gradually pick up each quarter in 2022, We are more positive on the 2H22-2023 outlook.

• Downgrade to HOLD rating due to limited upside from current market price, with a TP of Bt14.60 based on 1.4xPBV’22E, which is ASIA ex-Japan Material sector. In our view
• We expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt310m (-45%YoY,+27%QoQ), on the back of revenue growth, together with margin expansion.
• Maintain 2022 positive view, following better biodiesel and fatty alcohol demand volume after lockdown easing, upswing in personal healthcare products, and new Bio-complex project.