Category

Thailand

Mar 01
0

Thailand: Destiny Investment Token, Eastern Water Resources Development and Management and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Destiny Investment Token: Destined Only for the Fans
  • EASTW: Negative Tone Towards Long-Term Earnings Outlook

Destiny Investment Token: Destined Only for the Fans

By Warut Promboon

  • We are launching coverage of Destiny Investment Token (DESTINY CURNCY) (DESTINY) which will be classified as an investment token in Thailand.
  • At 2.99%, the 2-year callable tokens are not attractive, in our view.
  • The on-going COVID-19 will pose a risk that the conditional THB1bn box office (for additional 2.01% return) will not be easily achievable.

EASTW: Negative Tone Towards Long-Term Earnings Outlook

By Research at Country Group

  • Regarding the concern over incapability of EASTW to extend concession water pipeline system belonged to the Treasury Department,we have concluded the impact under our base case scenario that the company
  • 4Q21 net profit was at Bt184m (+16%YoY, -20%QoQ) while 2021 net profit reported at Bt1.1bn (+39%YoY), in line with our forecast and expectation.
  • 4Q21 raw water sales volume reported at 59.3 million m3 (+1%YoY -6%QoQ). Tap water sales volume contracted to 23.0 million m3 (-5%YoY -6%QoQ).

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Feb 28
0

Thailand: Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) – Let the Games Begin

Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) – Let the Games Begin

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)recently published a solid set of results reflecting the gradual recovery of its core banking business and increasing digitalisation of its customers base.
  • The real excitement will come with the formation of SCBX, involving the reallocation of excess capital, which will be invested in adjacent lending and high-growth technology businesses.
  • Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)trades at a slight premium to peers on 0.92x FY2022E PBV but has the potential to generate higher returns, which should lead to further re-rating.

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Feb 26
0

Thailand: Tipco Asphalt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • TASCO: Crude Price Hike to Pressure 2022 Earnings

TASCO: Crude Price Hike to Pressure 2022 Earnings

By Research at Country Group

  • Downgrade to SELL from HOLD rating and cut TP by 41% to Bt14, derived from 1.4xPBV’22E, Asia ex-Japan Materials sector. We believe the valuation remains demanding with the stock trading
  • Its 4Q21 core profit was at Bt175m (-83%YoY,-71%QoQ), plunged due to narrow margin, following crude price surged and higher OPEX.
  • Excluding extraordinary items, 2021 core profit was at Bt2.9bn, increased 9%YoY, attributed to better EBIT margin from lower SG&A-to-sales ratio

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Feb 25
0

Thailand: Erawan Group, Star Petroleum Refining and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • ERW: Expect Continued Losses in 2022
  • SPRC: Positive 2022 Outlook from GRM Uptrend

ERW: Expect Continued Losses in 2022

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Excluding extraordinary items, ERW’s 4Q21 normalized loss was at Bt371m, the eighth consecutive quarter loss, due to operations under EBIT breakeven.
  • 4Q21 negative EBITDA declined to -Bt29m compared to -Bt30m in 4Q20 and -Bt243m in 3Q21 backed by recovering overall hotel operation.
  • Lockdown easing and launching ‘Rao Tiew Duay Kan phase 3’ program during 4Q21 resulted in improving occupancy rate (ex. Hop INN segment) to 30%  up from 25% in 4Q20 

SPRC: Positive 2022 Outlook from GRM Uptrend

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone.We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 1Q22 led by solid gasoline,diesel and jet fuel spreads. SPRC is among our top picks
  • We expect the market GRM improve to US$7.0/BBL level in 1Q22 (+17% QoQ) and maintain at high levels in 2022 backed by strong product spreads due to global economic recovery.
  • The diesel spread grew to US$16.4/bbl QTD, compared to US$11.5/bbl in 4Q21. Gasoline and Jet fuel spreads also inched up QTD to US$15.8/bbl (+US$0.4/bbl QoQ) and US$13.0/bbl (+US$2.8/bbl QoQ) respectively.

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Feb 24
0

Thailand: Carabao Group, Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • CBG: Expect Earnings to Recover YoY Supported by New Product Launches
  • JASIF: 4Q21 Core Profit Remains Flat, In-Line with Our Expectation

CBG: Expect Earnings to Recover YoY Supported by New Product Launches

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We upgrade our recommendation for CBG from HOLD to BUY with a new target price of Bt115 (-9% from previous TP), derived from 35xPE’22E, the average of the Thai energy 
  • We forecast 2022E earnings to recover to Bt3.3bn (+16%YoY) supported by (1) recovering sales in CLMV market, (2) Solid liquor’s distribution revenue growth, and (3) new product launches in Thailand.
  • Expect earnings to bounce back to roughly Bt800m in 2Q22,while we believe gross profit margin had already bottomed in 4Q21and expecting it to recover in 1Q22,supported by higher sales contribution 

JASIF: 4Q21 Core Profit Remains Flat, In-Line with Our Expectation

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Maintain BUY with target price of Bt12.10, derived from DCF methodology (WACC=9.6%, g=0%), implying 1.1xPBV’22E.
  • Excluding gain from asset revaluation of Bt300m, 4Q21 core profit remained flat both YoY and QoQ, in line with our forecast due to flat revenue at Bt2.5bn.
  • 2021 core profit grew slightly at Bt8.7bn (+1.5%YoY) while NAV increased slightly to Bt11.127

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Feb 23
0

Thailand: G J Steel PCL, True Corp Pcl, Asset World Corporation, PTT Oil and Retail and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • GJ Steel: Nippon Steel’s Offer Opens On The 23 February
  • TRUE: 22E Net Profit Will Continue to Be at a Loss, Despite Management’s View
  • AWC: Long-Term Earnings Growth Profile Remains Intact
  • OR: Positive 2022 Outlook from Revamping Oil and F&B Sales

GJ Steel: Nippon Steel’s Offer Opens On The 23 February

By David Blennerhassett

  • Both G J Steel PCL (GJS TB) and G Steel (GSTEL TB) have announced Form 247-4, the Notification on Receipt of the Tender Offer for Securities, from Nippon Steel.
  • As expected, the Offer period is for 25 days, between 23 February and 29 March. The payment is the 31 March. 
  • GJS is trading tight to terms. The Offer is unconditional.

TRUE: 22E Net Profit Will Continue to Be at a Loss, Despite Management’s View

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Conference call came with positive tone on 22E performance. Upgrade to HOLD rating with TP of Bt5.09 based on the tender offer price under the DTAC merger. However
  • TRUE’s stock price crashed yesterday as investors have sold on fact of merger progress. We will revise our forecast once management of TRUE reveals detailed plans regarding the merger.
  • Maintain our 22E forecast that TRUE will not be profitable, despite improvements. TRUE’s management expects to turn a profit in 2022. However, we do not believe that the revenue growth

AWC: Long-Term Earnings Growth Profile Remains Intact

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Expect EBITDA-break-even period for hospitality business by the second half of 2022E when the foreign tourists arrive at a pace of at least 400k people per month. Meanwhile
  • Long-Term growth prospect remain intact given number of hotel room expansion at 15%CAGR in 2023-26E.
  • Recent rally in stock price has priced in positive sentiment toward overall Thai tourism sector after restriction measure has eased.However,faster-than-expected recovery in foreign tourist inbound remain an upside risk for22-23E

OR: Positive 2022 Outlook from Revamping Oil and F&B Sales

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone,we expect the dip in oil marketing margin (diesel price cap) to persist till 1H22, while revamping oil and F&B sales volume 
  • Expect the 1Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from improving oil and F&B sales volume, while dip in oil marketing margin would drag the earning YoY.
  • Positive 2022 outlook with a 9% EPS growth. The post COVID-19 economic recovery is expected to drive the oil and F&B sales volume 10 to 15%,which will offset the 9%

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Feb 22
0

Thailand: Gulf Energy Development Public Company, Thai Oil Pcl, Global Power Synergy Company Ltd, Krung Thai Bank Pub, Siam City Cement , Global Green Chemicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • GULF: 4Q21 Earnings Grew from INTUCH Profit Share
  • TOP: Capital Increase Within 2022
  • GPSC: High Fuel Cost to Pressure SPP Margin in 1H22
  • KTB: Despite Slowing Growth Ahead, Dividend Payment Is Attractive
  • SCCC: Cement Sets to Swing into Recovery Mode in 2022
  • GGC: Upside Potential Is Limited in the Medium Term

GULF: 4Q21 Earnings Grew from INTUCH Profit Share

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • The 4Q21 net profit rose to an all time high of Bt3.0bn (+65 YoY, +92% QoQ). excluding FX and other extraordinary items the recurring profit was Bt2.7bn (+120% YoY,+19% QoQ)
  • The result came out better than our expectation, The 2021 net profit rose to a record high of Bt7.8bn (+79% YoY), 14% above our forecast.
  • The 4Q21 earnings growth was due to 1st time revenue recognition from GSRC power project – Unit 2 and equity income from INTUCH.

TOP: Capital Increase Within 2022

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • The BOD approved TOP’s recapitalization plan which includes 1)disposal of GPSC stake (by 2Q22) and 2) capital increase (within 2022). The proceeds will be used for repaying bridge loans raised
  • The company will raise around Bt22.4bn by sale of its 10.78% stake in GPSC. And around Bt12-to-14bn by equity offering of up to 239.2m newly issued shares with green shoe
  • Positive view on recapitalization plan, given the investment in CAP will provide an entry to high potential Olefin’s business segment. Also,We see the net EPS dilution to be below 5%

GPSC: High Fuel Cost to Pressure SPP Margin in 1H22

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Last week analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone. we see the overhang from rise in fuel cost (in 2021) to remain till 2H22, and later recover 
  • Expect the 1Q22 earnings to improve QoQ,from 1)Slightly improved SPP margin from upward Ft (tariff) adjustment and  2) Increasing IU sales. However, spike in fuel cost would drag SPP margins
  • We are more positive on 2H22,2023 outlook,as we expect a 15% EPS growth in 2023 from recovering SPP margins, Increased IU sales volume, and higher share of profit from Avaada

KTB: Despite Slowing Growth Ahead, Dividend Payment Is Attractive

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We initiate our coverage of KTB with a HOLD rating and a target price of Bt15.00.Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model(ROE 6.8%, growth 2%), implying 0.6x PBV’22E
  • Given the improving economic growth ahead, loans will continue to increase, but at a moderate rate
  • Potential credit cost reduction is likely given stable asset quality and high coverage ratio

SCCC: Cement Sets to Swing into Recovery Mode in 2022

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Reiterate BUY rating with TP of Bt202 based on 14.4xPE’22E,which is close to -1SD of its 10-years mean. Our rating factors in robust outlook on cement demand recovery, hence offering
  • Its 4Q21 net profit was at 1.1bn (+14%YoY, +57%QoQ), rebound fueled by strong revenue growth, together with margin expansion.
  • Foresee 1Q22 earnings to remain strong QoQ, backed by demand recovery post-lockdown and heighten cement prices in local and overseas market.

GGC: Upside Potential Is Limited in the Medium Term

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Maintain HOLD rating given limited upside from current market price, with a TP of Bt14.20 based on 1.4xPBV’22E, which is ASIA ex-Japan Material sector. Our rating reflects better biodiesel 
  • Its 4Q21 core profit was at Bt347m (-39%YoY,+42%QoQ), supported by strong revenue growth and wider margin.
  • In our view, 22-23E core profit will grow at 2%/5% due to anticipation of prices decline, to offset by stable ME and FA demand.

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Feb 19
0

Thailand: BCPG PCL, Advanced Info Service and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • BCPG: Gain from Indonesia Asset Divestment
  • ADVANC: 5G and Enterprise Segment Will Drive Strong Growth in 2022

BCPG: Gain from Indonesia Asset Divestment

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • BCPG’s 4Q21 net profit fall to Bt238m (-24% YoY, -65% QoQ),a 16-quarter low, mainly dragged by FX loss. The recurring profit stood at Bt583m (+9% YoY,-18% QoQ),inline with our expectation
  • The revenue recognition from new 20MW project in Japan (4Q21) resulted the YoY growth. While QoQ drop was due to seasonal weak hydro operation.
  • The company announced divestment of its full stake (33%) in Indonesia geothermal power project. BCPG will book a gain of B1.6bn from the deal

ADVANC: 5G and Enterprise Segment Will Drive Strong Growth in 2022

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • Upgrade to BUY rating with new TP of Bt269 (up 19% from previous TP), based on DCF, implying 24.1xPE’22. Analyst meeting came out with positive tone about new strategic direction
  • Expect Enterprise revenue to contribute 20% of total revenue by 2025. Management believes this segment will reach 20% of total revenue by 2024.We believe differently as we expect further competition
  • Revised 22E and 23E net profit upwards by 4% and 13%, respectively, to factor in high revenue growth. While 2022 will demonstrate healthy net profit growth, we believe enterprise segment 

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Feb 18
0

Thailand: JMT Network Services, Kerry Express Thailand and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three
  • KEX: Price War Still Go on for the at Least Until 2nd Half of 2022

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three

By Brian Freitas

KEX: Price War Still Go on for the at Least Until 2nd Half of 2022

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We anticipate KEX earnings performance to experience net loss for at least in the next two quarters while expecting to see market consolidation within the express delivery industry in Thailand
  • First net loss since listed at Bt604m in 4Q21 pressured by aggressive price cutting strategy and cost arise from spare resources on labour and transportation. This resulted 
  • Report Bt47m net profit in 2021 (-98%YoY) due to a price war which resulted in a drastic fall in average selling price. (contracted 20-25%YoY in 2021)

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Feb 16
0

Thailand: Kasikornbank PCL, Osotspa Public Company Limited, TTW Pcl and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Top Five Thai Banks in Our Chart Screener; Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB)  Is Top
  • OSP: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Recover QoQ
  • TTW: Expect Profit from Equity Income to Support 2022 Earnings Growth

Top Five Thai Banks in Our Chart Screener; Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB)  Is Top

By Victor Galliano

  • These five value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the outlook for earnings
  • Of these, we believe Kasikorn Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also highlight Bangkok Bank positively
  • Of the other Thai banks, we think that TMBThanchart could be a potential “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, driving down its cost of risk further

OSP: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Recover QoQ

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We maintain BUY rating with target price at Bt36.50, based on 30xPE’22E, the three years average trading range.
  • We expect OSP to post 4Q21 net profit of Bt801m (-6%YoY, +38%QoQ), a recovery from 3Q21, the lowest level since listed. QoQ improvement will be supported by recovering beverage sales
  • We foresee 2022E earnings to hit record high at Bt3.6bn(+14%YoY)driven by 1) a solid revenue growth at +4.7%YoY from recovering sales in beverage sales in Thailand and new products launch 

TTW: Expect Profit from Equity Income to Support 2022 Earnings Growth

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We expect 4Q21E net profit at Bt736m (+7%YoY, -21%QoQ), dropping QoQ due to lower equity income contribution from power plant business.
  • Meanwhile, 4Q21 earnings from tap water business will reach 19 quarter low at Bt624m due to lower demand from both industrial customers and PWA.
  • Revise down 2021-23 earnings slightly to reflect weaker demand for tap water.

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