Thailand

• Maintain BUY with a new target price of Bt139 (from Bt149) due to a net profit downgrade. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (ROE 9%, growth 2%)
• Management had more cautious views on potential impacts from higher inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in line with our expectations at Bt10.2bn (+1% YoY, +29% QoQ).

• Maintain BUY rating with a TP of B23.00 based on 16xPE’22E, which is close to +1SD of its five-years average trading.Our rating is premised on positive pet food growth outlook
• We expect 1Q22E earnings to come in at Bt250m (+16%YoY,-6%QoQ), soften QoQ on the back of weak margin outlook from surging raw material costs. 
• We foresee earnings visibility to pick up in 2Q22 onwards, driven by stronger pet food revenue thanks to new capacity and margin improvement given easing cost pressures.

• Maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt162.Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth, resilient balance sheet,and undemanding valuation. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model 
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt7.1bn, up 3% YoY(+13% QoQ)and 9% lower than expectations on lower gain from financial instruments designed at fair value through profit or loss.
• Asset quality was resilient. The NPL ratio minimally increased to 3.3% and the coverage ratio remained high at 229% against uncertainty.

• Upgrade BUY with a target price of Bt15.00. Our upgrade reflects an attractive upside gain,resilient asset quality,and potential credit costs reduction. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt8.8bn (+57% YoY, +78% QoQ) and 37% higher than our expectation on lower-than-expected provisions.
• Asset quality improved. The NPL ratio decreased to 3.3% in 1Q22 and the loan loss coverage ratio was higher to 173.6% to withstand uncertainty ahead.

• Reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of Bt174. Our BUY call reflects (1) steady growth ahead from improving economic recovery; (2) adequate reserves against new NPLs
• Management maintained 2022 financial guidance despite a GDP downgrade. It would likely concentrate on implementing comprehensive debt restructuring to improve the balance sheet.
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in line with our expectations at Bt11.2bn (+5% YoY, +13% QoQ).

• Maintain our BUY call with a higher target price of Bt82 (from Bt79). Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth, a resilient balance sheet, and attractive dividend payment. 
• Management was optimistic about lending growth and loan quality due to the economic reopening.
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt2.05bn (+41% YoY, +1% QoQ) and 15% higher than our expectation.

• More positive sentiment
• Vietnam subsidiary to list on HCM stock market
• CPV’s sales growing
• Improving swine prices to support earnings recovery

Upgrade to BUY from HOLD with TP of THB27.9. The upcoming IPO of subsidiary CP Vietnam (CPV) will give it more flexibility to raise funds for further business expansion as well as unlock value of CPV. This is a new development creating positive sentiment on CPF. CPF’s 1Q22 resultsare likely to be lacklustre but CPF’s share price dropped 5% in the past three months possibly pricing in the weak 1Q22 profit outlook. Besides, we see prospects for improvement in 2Q22 from the favourable livestock prices.

• We see upside to guidance; raising our earnings, TP
• 1Q22 sales growth likely driven by volume and price
• Recovery in gross margin to push profit higher
• Better prospects

• Encouraging 1Q22E recovery, maintain BUY
• Sales and occupancy rebounds drive earnings growth
• Inflationary pressures present but manageable
• Positive earnings bias

• We expect PTTEP to post 1Q22 net profit of Bt9.4bn (-18% YoY, -11% QoQ). Despite significant growth in sales volume and product selling price
• Excluding the one-time items, the recurring profit is expected to be Bt16.6bn (+228% YoY,-3% QoQ). YoY surge will be underpinned  by a 11% growth in sales volume and a 25% 
• Bright 2022 outlook from crude oil & gas price surge. We see the volatility to continue considering continued Russia-Ukraine war tensions, Reserve oil release by IEA members and COVID-19 

• Maintain BUY rating with a TP of Bt445.00 based on 13.7xPE’22E which is close to its 10-years trailing average.
• We foresee 1Q22 core profit to be the bottom quarter at Bt7bn (-53%YoY,-2%QoQ), pressured by tighter chemical spreads after naphtha price soared from higher oil price.
• We expect earnings recovery from 2Q22 onwards, following improve chemical spreads driven by prices catching up with rising costs, plus better CBM and packaging unit.

• We reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of Bt1.60. Our BUY call reflects (1) steady growth ahead; (2) adequate reserves against new NPLs, and (3) compelling valuation.
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt3.2bn (+15% YoY, +14% QoQ) and was 13% higher than our expectation on lower-than-expected personal expenses.
• Asset quality was resilient. The NPL ratio decreased to 2.7% in 1Q22 and the loan loss coverage ratio was higher to 131.6% to cope with uncertainties ahead

• We maintain BUY rating for VGI with the new target price of Bt6.20 (Previous TP: Bt6.50), derived from SOTP method or 50% premium to Thai media peers.  
• We anticipate revenue streams from media and commercial space (recently started to manage by NINE),to retreat to 70% of the level we have seen during pre-pandemic by late 2QFY23 (July’22-September’22)
• The management revenue target in FY2023 at Bt6.5bn-7.0bn is fairly optimistic as we anticipate OOH media revenue to not recover that quickly.

• We reiterate BUY rating for EPG but trim down target price to Bt12.60, (Previous TP:14.30) derived from 21xPE’FY23E,  (5-year average) or 90% premium to materials sector. We reduce PE multiple 
• Expect the company to post 4QFY22 (Jan-Mar) core profit at Bt398m (+7%YoY -2%QoQ)
• Solid demand for automotive-parts in Thailand and Australian. Concern over rising raw material remain under control at least in the next two quarter

• With a limited upside to our target price and concern over decreasing people purchasing power following a rise in inflation, we downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD 
• We expect HMPRO to report 1Q22 net profit at Bt1.49bn (+9%YoY, -16%QoQ),
• YoY growth will be supported by solid demand for WFH products, government stimulus scheme (Shop Dee Mee Khuen in Jan –15 Feb 2022), and solid revenue growth from Mega Home

• We reiterate BUY rating for GLOBAL with a target price of Bt25.0 based on 35xPE’22E, close to the average of the Thailand home-improvement subsector.
• We expect GLOBAL to report 1Q22 net profit at Bt967m (flat YoY, +30%QoQ).
• QoQ growth will be supported by high season quarter with a solid SSSG at+7.5%YoY in 1Q22 together with economic recovery as shown by Farm income Index was at Bt215 (+9%YoY)

• We expect the company to report net profit of Bt400m in 1Q22. (+1%QoQ+31%YoY), the highest level in the past five quarters.YoY expansion will be due to effective operating cost management
• Expect daily ridership to reach 70% of pre-COVID19 level by 3Q22, under assumption that there will be no major restriction measures induced by the virus outbreak. Furthermore, we expect ridership 
• Earlier-Than-Expected bidding for Orange line will be the re-rating catalyst (previously expected to take place within 1H22). We estimate upsides from this project at Bt1.90 per share.

• Maintain BUY rating with a new TP of B66.00 (down 8% from previous TP),based on 30.8xPE’22E which is close to its -1SD of 3-years trailing average. We believe, SCGP’s 24%
• We expect 1Q22E core profit to be the bottom quarter at Bt1.7bn (-21%YoY,-21%QoQ). Excluding one-time gain from the acquisition of Go-Pak adjustment, its recurring profit should rise 23%QoQ.
• We believe earnings momentum to recover in  2Q22 onwards by raising product prices in wake of costs turbulence, but would drop YoY due to fall from high base. 

• We reiterate our HOLD rating for DOHOME with a target price of Bt21.4 (included stock dividend) derived from 35xPE’22E, which is close to the biggest home-improvement player in Thailand.
• We expect DOHOME to report 1Q22 net profit at Bt468m (-14%YoY, +41%QoQ), QoQ growth will be supported by (1) high season quarter with a solid SSSG outpace peer at +26%YoY
• We expect 2Q22 earnings continue to soften YoY pressured by (1) a drop in margin for steel products,which will trim down overall gross profit margin to roughly 18%-19% from 22.7%

• Maintain Buy with TP of THB26.35
• Solid SSSG and store expansion driving sales
• 1Q22E profit likely to grow 33% QoQ, 2% YoY
• Store expansion underpins growth

We expect GLOBAL’s 1Q22 earnings to reach a record high when it reports results at end-April. Healthy earnings are being driven by resilient demand for building materials and price adjustments, resulting in our projected SSSG of 7%. GLOBAL should continue to deliver resilient growth on continued store expansion in Thailand and parts of ASEAN. We maintain Buy, with a DCF-based and dividend-adjusted TP of THB26.35, WACC 7.2%, LTG 3%. Note that the stock went XD on 25 Feb at 23 existing shares for 1 share dividend with a cash dividend of THB0.2548/share.

• We initiate coverage of INTUCH with a BUY rating, based on our TP of Bt82 derived from 18.9% discount from SOTP valuation, implying 22.3xPE’22E.Despite ADVANC’s strong earnings growth in 2022-24
• Benefit from ADVANC’s top-of-industry performance. ADVANC to gain from better 5G infrastructure and ARPU reversal.
• ADVANC’s enterprise business will grow rapidly between 2022-24. THCOM has negligible impact on overall performance.

• Improving consumer sentiment to lift CPALL’s sales
• Robust SSSG and more contribution from Lotus’s
• Earnings likely rebounded sharply QoQ and YoY
• Return of tourists to increase traffic

• Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 4Q2021 results marked a turnaround in both its packaging business in glass and cans plus better performance from Big C as mobility improved during the quarter.
• The outlook for packaging looks positive and the Big C will open more outlets in 2022 plus renovating around 20 hypermarkets plus opening new formats this year.
• Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains an interesting recovery play for Thailand and Vietnam, with the potential for more retail exposure there in the future. Valuations stack up versus peers.

• IVL announced completion of Oxiteno acquisition and consolidation of assets beginning April 2022 (earnings recognition 2Q22 onwards). We have a positive view on the deal given the earnings accretion 
• Strong surfactants business footprint, as post integration IVL will hold 20% of America’s total EO capacities and 25% market share of nonionic surfactants.
• We estimate the new asset to contribute US$200m to IVL’s EBITDA in 2022 (10% of IVL’s 2022E EBITDA) and increase thereafter, thanks to synergy benefits from efficient asset utilization. 

• We downgrade PSL to HOLD rating while trim target price to Bt16.0 (Previous TP:Bt21.20) derived from 1.5xPBV’22E, Asia-ex-Japan transportation sector. We believe peak point of the market upcycle
• We anticipate a slowdown in demand for dry bulk commodities trading to continue at least until 1H22, which was mainly pressured by tension between Russia-Ukraine and China city lockdown.
• Supply side in short-term will still benefit from trend of containerized cargoes and issue over port congestion, but these factors are likely to fade in 2H22

• We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic forecast on non-mobile enterprise segment. Nevertheless
• We expect 1Q22E net profit at Bt6.9bn (+4% YoY, flat QoQ). Limited QoQ growth is due to prolonged price wars and weaker foot traffic caused by the Omicron outbreak.
• We expect CCIID and 5G ARPU uplift will drive earnings growth at 9%CAGR between 2021-24E.

• Analyst meeting came out with positive tone. Cloud and cybersecurity businesses should grow rapidly over the next few years.Current inventory stock provides 4 to 6 months buffer from Chinese lockdown 
• We believe that cloud and cybersecurity will drive earnings at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2021-24E, led sales growth at 8.6% CAGR and slightly improved margins. Management maintains strong outlook 
• We expect 1Q22E earnings at Bt201m(+6%QoQ, +6%YoY)driven QoQ by GPM expansion. We recommend accumulating shares now as earnings in 1H22 should be the lowest of the year due to seasonality.

• We reiterate our BUY rating for M with a target price of Bt61.0 based on 25xPE’22E, Asia ex-Japan consumer staple sector.
• We expect M to report net profit of Bt393m in 1Q22 (+343%YoY, -2%QoQ) driven by a positive same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) in three main brands (MK, Yayoi, and Laem Charoen Seafood) 
• We forecast earnings to bounce back to Bt2.2bn in 2022 and continue to grow at 14%CAGR(2023-24) supported by 1) solid recovery in SSSG after resuming dine-in services together with restoring 

• Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt149.Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth,resilient asset quality, and compelling valuation. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (ROE 9.5%
• Net profit will likely rise 2% YoY (+30% QoQ) in 1Q22 given higher net interest income from elevated loans and lower provisions.
• The S&P Global Rating downgrade will likely have minimal impacts on SCB’s fundamentals.