Thailand

• Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive tone regarding2022-25 earnings outlook.We reiterate our BUY rating for CBG and roll over target price to Bt125 (Previous TP is Bt115)
• We expect GPM to bottomed out in 1Q22 caused by 1) higher revenue contribution from branded own segment (higher than average blended GPM), 2) wholesale price adjustment by 1%-3%
• We expect CBG to show a strong performance in 2022-25 supported by recovery sales in Cambodia, solid revenue in Myanmar, breaking into the Chinese market successfully, growth opportunities in Vietnam

• Analyst meeting came out with negative tone. We maintain BUY rating at Bt57.50, based on 21.3xPE’22 (+1SD of 10-yr trading average). Our TP and 22E downwards earnings revisal by 6% 
• 2Q22 should be lowest of the year due to declining sales from decrease by 25% in output in Chinese factories.Recommend accumulating shares,due to attractive valuations, prior to 2H22 earnings recovery.
• 2H22 earnings will recover from GPM expansion from revenue contribution from new SiC segment (consistently gross loss until now)and better product mix in IC Thai factory.Sales should also grow moderately 

• The six value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the earnings outlook
• Of these, we believe Krung Thai Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also like Kasikorn Bank
• We see TMBThanchart as an early stage “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, and push down its cost of risk sustainably to lower levels

• Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.
• The 2Q22 earnings is expected to improve QoQ from1 higher share of profit from HPC, 2)equity income from new 145MWe  gas PP COD in 1Q22.While full quarter profit from 476M 
• We see the 2022-25 outlook promising,considering 1)Steady earnings growth supported by 28% PP operating capacity expansion and 2)rising RE proportion which will rule out the ESG concerns and support rerating

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• This week, the highest gross spreads are Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU). 
• The lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP).

• Conference meeting on Wednesday came with negative news on 22E earnings prospects. We maintain our BUY rating with TP of Bt5.09, based on the tender offer price.
• Management expects no pushback in terms of creditor approval.We believe that the merger will also receive regulatory approval,but with several regulations to also protect consumers, which could impact NewCo’s potential.
• We revise 22E earnings down to Bt2.9bn loss from Bt736m loss, previously, to reflect higher D&A costs and ARPU decline due to harsh competition in 2022.

• Maintain BUY rating with TP of B23.00 derived from 16xPE’22E, which is close to +1SD of 5-years trading average. Our rating reflects strong pet food growth outlook, attractive 3.8% yield
• We foresee earnings momentum to improve QoQ in 2Q22, supported by better pet food business unit from new capacity, and further strengthen by Baht downtrend.
• In our view, the new pet food capacity should gather pace in 2H22, upon better demand in light of favorable macro dynamics. Moreover

• Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone regarding 2022 outlook.We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt38.0,based DCF method (WACC of 8% and terminal growth of 2%)
• Positive 2022outlook as we expect the hotel industry to make a strong come back in 2022due to vaccine roll outs and easing of international travel restrictions,making the earnings positive for2022
• Since 1Q is typically the lowest travel seasonality,we expect the revenue from hotels to grow for next 3 quarters (around 50% by 4Q22), contributing around 75% of the total revenue.

• Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a positive tone.We reiterate our BUY rating for SAPPE with a target price of Bt35.25 (+10% from previous TP)based on 24xPE’22E, close to +1SD
• Management targeted revenue at Bt10bn by 2026 or +22%CAGR(2022-26). •In our view, SAPPE target is quite challenging amid concern over rising inflation situation. 
• We expect 2Q22 earnings to continue to grow YoY and QoQ supported by (1) higher oversea market penetration, (2) distribution channel expansion,  (3) more effective marketing activities

• We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt69.0,derived using DCF methodology (WACC 5.7% and TG 1%),implying 32x PE’23E.Our valuation reflects weak SPP operations outlook in 2022
• Expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ,from 1) better SPP margin backed by upward Ft adjustment 2) Full quarter profit recognition from GE phase 5 after maintenance shut down (3Q21-1Q22)
• Full year 2022 outlook remains weak, as we expect the EPS to shrink by 37%.YoY due to continued pressure on SPP margins from high fuel cost. We are more positive 

• We maintain the BUY call and a target price of Bt3.80 derived from 18.0xPE’22  (5-year average) or implies 10% discount to Thai real estate sector. BUY rating reflects positive outlook 
• Expect Industrial estate business’s revenue (15% of total revenue in 2021) to grow 50% in 2022E supported by 1.) higher land transfer along with increasing investor traffic at site-visit, and, 
• Maintain positive outlook for utility business under WHAUP(BUY: Bt4.60)in 2022E driven by an increase in water sales volume, solar roof portfolio expansion (target to hit 300MW by 2023 from 60MW 

• We maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt58.0, derived using SOTP methodology, implying 51x PE’22E. The rising gas price has relatively lower impact on GULF’s earnings performance 
• Positive 2Q22 and 2022 outlook,The revenue recognition from GSRC unit 1,2(COD in 2021), unit 3 commencing operation in 2Q22,along with equity income from INTUCH, should drive 2Q22 profit both YoY&QoQ.
• 27% power generation capacity expansion in 2022, including 1.3GW IPP gas power plant (TH), 100MW solar roof top (TH) and 128 MW offshore wind (Vietnam).

• We downgrade to HOLD rating from  BUY rating with TP unchanged at Bt43, derived from  DCF (WACC of 10% and TG of 2%), implying 28.6xPE’23. 
• The company reported a net loss of Bt44m in 1Q22 compared to net loss of Bt476m in 1Q21 and net profit of Bt152m in 4Q21 in line with our expectation.
• 1Q22 EBITDA doubled YoY but remained flat QoQ at Bt951m supported by strong YoY recovery of hotel performance benefitting from 1) Rebound of Thailand tourism 2) Continued strong operations.

• Yesterday analyst meeting came out with slightly positive tone. However, weak short-term performance from rising energy cost and lower consumer purchasing power and limited upside to our target price
• From management guidance, gross profit margin will be decline 50bps YoY in 2022 due to a rising energy cost and raw material in packaging business and consumer supply business. Meanwhile
• We have positive view on medium to long-term performance supported by better modern retail performance (BigC). Currently,BigC market share was at 21% (+1% to 2% YoY) and we expect BigC 

• Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt27.0, derived from an SOTP methodology. Our TP implies 25xPE’22E
• Expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve both YoY and QoQ, on the back of continued oil sales growth  and healthy marketing margin.
• The 2H22 earnings should improve YoY from better sales growth, however oil marketing margin may prone to downside risk as the crude oil price continue to remain at high levels.

• Undemanding valuation and good dividend, BUY
• 1Q22 earnings recovery
• New orders to boost sales growth
• Profit growth seen despite high costs

1Q22 earnings recovered QoQ to THB259m (+44% QoQ, -19% YoY). We expect new orders to help fuel 2022E sales growth of 6.5% YoY. While higher steel costs will initially squeeze gross profit margins, as it takes 3-6 months to hike prices, we expect only a dip in GPM. We forecast FY22 earnings to hit a new high of THB1.032b (+8% YoY). We think SAT’s valuations are undemanding at 7.6x 2022E P/E and 1x P/BV, with a healthy THB3.5b cash on hand. It offers a good dividend yield of 8.6%. Our THB25.50 TP is based on 10-yr average forward P/E of 10.3x. Maintain BUY.

• At the last close prices, Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)’s gross spread to the dividend-adjusted VTO price is 5.6% and 11.1%, respectively.  
• The merger has received DTAC and True shareholder approvals. The merger hinges on regulatory approval.
• The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread of 5.5% trading above the average spread since the merger announcement of 3.4% (ex. transaction costs).

• Analyst meeting came out with positive tone regarding 22E outlook.We maintain BUY rating with TP Bt4.20 derived from DCF valuation (WACC=7% & Terminal growth= 2%) implying 10% discount to 23.1xPE’23.
• The company reported net loss of Bt313m in 1Q22 compared to net loss of Bt492m in 1Q21 and net loss of Bt246 in 4Q21 in line with our expectation.
• Excluding extra ordinary items, the operational losses declined YoY and QoQ to Bt313m since revenue almost doubled YoY  and increased 4% QoQ to Bt646m after bottoming out in 3Q21.

• Last week analyst meeting came out with neutral tone.We reiterate our BUY rating for CRC with a target price of Bt43.0,based on DCF (WACC of 8.2% and TG of 2%)
• Management maintained its key 2022 financial guidance. CRC targeted 2022 sales growth of 15%-20%YoY, mainly from fashion business and targeted GPM retail sales to expend by 100-120bps YoY.
• •CRC showed three measures to mitigate the effect from uncertainties under global issue such as(1)cost optimization by controlling OPEX growth to not be higher than 50% of total sales growth

• Maintain BUY rating with a new TP of B185.00 (down 9% from previous TP) derived from 13.2xPE’22E which is close to -1SD of 10-years trading average.
• Excluding extraordinary items, 1Q22 core profit was at Bt1.5bn (+45%YoY, +20%QoQ), The YoY rose on solid revenue growth (+21%YoY), and equity income (+23%YoY).
• We expect earnings trend to gear down QoQ in 2Q22, drag by mounting cost pressures behind the surging input costs upon the unfavorable macro dynamics and seasonality.

• Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt16.70. Our BUY call reflects steady net profit growth,resilient asset quality, and attractive valuation.Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model 
• Management maintained its key 2022 financial guidance. It affirmed that the KTB’s coverage ratio was high enough to withstand uncertainties and there was room to reduce provisions ahead.
• We increased our net profit forecast by 5-9%for 2022-24 to reflect our lower provision estimates.We expect KTB’s net profit growth to be solid at 19%YoY in 2022 and continue rising

• ORI’s 1Q22 net profit was at Bt 738m (-11%YoY, -9%QoQ),in line with our forecast. Excluding special items from sell of investment at Bt 297 m,normal  profit  was  at  Bt441m (-37%YoY,-27%QoQ).
• The dropped in YoY and QoQ of net profit was pressured by  lower revenue recognition from real estate sales in non-JV project toBt3.04bn(-12%YoY,-11%QoQ)and the loss from equity income at Bt48m
• Expect 2Q22 earning to improve QoQ supported by revenue recognition of Park Origin Thonglor JV project worth Bt12bn and two non-JV condominium project worth Bt1.16bn.

• Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect the refinery margin continue to improve in 2Q22 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spread.
• The 1Q22 net profit spiked to an all time high of Bt5.3bn (+164% YoY, +185% QoQ), supported by higher GRM and Sales volume.
• We expect 2Q22 recurring profit to improve on the back of rising GRM due to  Russia oil supply disruption and strong oil demand as air travel resumed after COVID impact. 

• Resilient earnings, cheap valuation: BUY
• Strong 1Q22 core profit, but F/X loss lowers net profit
• Raising prices and managing costs to support GPM
• 2022: sales to grow, core profits stable

• ICHI reported 1Q22 net profit at Bt104m (-15%YoY, -22%QoQ). The 1Q22 result came out lower than our expectation.
• Excluding one-time tax items of Bt24m,1Q22 norm profit was at Bt128m(+5.4%YoY). The YoY and QoQ drop in earnings mainly from a contraction in gross profit margin to 14.7% in 1Q22 
• We expect 2Q22 earnings to recover QoQ from high season quarter. Revised down 2022 earnings by 18% to 20% in 2022-23E to factor in rising cost.

• Expect impact from an expected drop in sea freight rate (50% of WICE revenue link to this freight price) is likely to be offset by an increase in cross border
• We have factored in impact from China border restriction and a gradual drop in sea-air freight,which we anticipated to normalize to pre-COVID-19 gradually.Our revenue forecast at Bt8.2bn is on conservative
• WICE report 1Q22 net profit at Bt158m (+93%YoY and -13%QoQ). QoQ contraction from all-time high level in 4Q21 was due to a drop in air freight and cross border revenue

• IVL reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt14.1bn (+134% YoY, +161% QoQ), The result came out better than our expectation and beat the consensus by 95%.
• Excluding onetime items, the recurring profit stood at Bt10.6bn (+175% YoY, +94% QoQ). The earnings growth was supported by record cPET performance, benefiting from tight supply demand environment.
• The EBITDA margin also rose to a record high level of 15%, compared to 11% in 1Q21 and 4Q21.

• We maintain BUY rating with TP Bt4.50 derived from 1x PBV’22E, to reflect better outlook post-COVID crisis.
• The company reported 1Q22 net loss of Bt204m compared to net loss of Bt311m in 1Q21 and net loss of Bt70m in 4Q21, in-line with our expectation.
• 1Q22 EBITDA remained positive for 3-consecutive quarter at Bt256m compared to a negative EBITDA of Bt59m in 1Q21 due to strong recovery of overall hotel operation. However, EBITDA dropped 15%QoQ 

• TOP reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt7.2bn (+114% YoY, +43% QoQ),a 5-quarter high, driven by strong refinery segment performance and stock gain. The result came out better than our expectation.
• The accounting EBITDA spiked to Bt13.0bn(+58% YoY,+114% QoQ).Despite the weak performance of petrochemical,power and other segments, the strong refinery segment (+124% YoY, +178% QoQ) operation under pinned the overall growth.
• Positive 2Q22 outlook, The strong GRM should continue in 2Q22 and ahead backed by solid gasoline, jet fuel and diesel spreads from global economic recovery.

• Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF,implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects. DTAC and TRUE fiercely competing for market share
• We expect to see soft earnings recovery in 2Q22 from weak top-line growth.Price competition will remain intense, but the strong performances in broadband and CCIID segment will support revenue growth
• Maintain our 2022 earnings at Bt29bn(+9%YoY).We still believe that in 2H22, 5G ARPU uplift and recovery in tourism to boost consumer confidence will help ARPU reverse and support earnings growth.

• BCP reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt4.4bn (+91% YoY, +148% QoQ), an all time high. The result came out better than our expectation.
• The earnings spike was mainly supported by improved performance of 1) refinery operations along with a huge stock gain of Bt4.1bn, 2) natural resources business from rise in crude oil 
• We expect 2Q22 recurring profit continue to grow from better refinery performance backed by rising GRM. The oil retail business should also improve as marketing margin picks up after easing 

• PTTGC reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt4.2bn(-57% YoY, +30% QoQ). The result came out lower than our expectation and 24% below consensus.
• Excluding the stock gain of Bt4.9bn, hedging loss of Bt8.6bn and FX gain of Bt595m etc.,  the recurring profit stood at Bt6.2bn (-29% YoY, +74% QoQ).
• Dropped YoY mainly due to weak Olefins business performance (lower spreads, 26% YoY decline in EBITDA margin), while improved contribution from performance materials segment from Allnex acquisition in 4Q21 

• Maintain BUY with target price of Bt12.10, derived from DCF methodology (WACC=9.6%, g=0%), implying 1.1xPBV’22E.
• 1Q22 net profit was Bt1.6bn(-9% YoY, -36% QoQ) due to asset revaluation losses.
• Excluding unrealized loss from asset revaluation of Bt600m,1Q22 core profit remained flat both YoY and QoQ at Bt2.2bn,in line with our forecast due to flat YoY and QoQ revenue atBt2.5bn.

• We reiterate a BUY rating but trim down target price to Bt20.0 (Previous TP: Bt22.20) after revised down earnings in 2022E by 10%.The target derived from 37xPE’22E, its +1.0 S.D. 
• Expect solid performance for logistics and warehouse businesses from 2Q22 onward to 2H22
• Anticipate shared profit from Transimex(Vietnam)to gradually drop from high base in 4Q21which will be pressured by decreasing global freight rate but the impact is likely to be offset with profit