Thailand

• Last week analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone.We maintain the HOLD rating due to demanding valuation.Our target price of Bt80.0, is derived using SOTP methodology, implying 43x PE’22E.
• Expect the 2Q22 earnings to grow both YoY and QoQ, on the back of 1) higher EV sales 2) better solar power plant operation and 3) improving biodiesel sales.
• The company has secured order for 87 E-buses to be delivered in 2Q22 to Lotte group.And further target a sales of 1,000 buses in 2H22, and 2,500 to 3,000 units

• Maintain our BUY recommendation with TP of Bt29.75,derived from 27.0xPE’22 (+2SD of average 10-yr trading). Yesterday’s analyst meeting came out with neutral tone. While we are cautious of the inflationa
• Management affirms that weakening consumer demand, shortages caused by China lockdowns and Russo-Ukrainian War, and weakening Baht will not impact SYNEX’s 2022 performance.
• Management maintains their guidance of +15% revenue growth YoY in 2022, but admits post-2022 top-line growth will not match the levels seen during Covid period (2020-21).

• The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone.The solid 2022 earnings outlook, decent dividend yield and lowering ESG concerns from transition to clean energy should support the stock performance.
• Expect 2Q recurring profit to remain weak and recover thereafter, following seasonality of Paju ES, (49% stake, 1.8GWe).
• The 2022 outlook looks solid from normalizing power plant operation (recovering demand)after COVID1-19 impact. Also,we see upside from new project acquisition as the company target to add 1.0GWe to portfolio

• We downgrade the rating to HOLD from BUY and revise down the target price by 22% to Bt11.70 due to weak earnings outlook from low tap water demand on account 
• 1Q22 net profit dropped to Bt613m (-13% YoY, -1% QoQ), a 4-year low. The result came out lower than our expectation.
• The YoY earnings drop was due to decline in gross margin, higher SG&A to sales and lower share of profit from CKP.Meanwhile, revenue dropped 4% YoY dragged by lower sales 

• The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on a target price of Bt42.0, derived using SOTP methodology, implying 1.1xPBV’23E.
• Expect the 2Q22 recurring profit to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of solid refinery and E&P business operations.
• The bright refinery performance should continue to excel in 2Q22 underpinned by higher GRM and full refinery utilization.

• Last week analyst meeting came out in a negative tone.Maintain HOLD rating with a new TP of Bt13.00(down 9% from previous TP) based on 1.27xPBV’22E which is close to ASIA 
• We foresee earnings momentum to slowdown QoQ in 2Q22,pressure by change to B5 biodiesel policy,along with seasonality effect will hurt biodiesel demand despite lockdown easing, but should be mildly cushion
• Meanwhile, FA demand in 2Q22 should remain stable backed by growing consumption of personal care products and rising prices for substitute products

• Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive tone regarding2022-25 earnings outlook.We reiterate our BUY rating for CBG and roll over target price to Bt125 (Previous TP is Bt115)
• We expect GPM to bottomed out in 1Q22 caused by 1) higher revenue contribution from branded own segment (higher than average blended GPM), 2) wholesale price adjustment by 1%-3%
• We expect CBG to show a strong performance in 2022-25 supported by recovery sales in Cambodia, solid revenue in Myanmar, breaking into the Chinese market successfully, growth opportunities in Vietnam

• Analyst meeting came out with negative tone. We maintain BUY rating at Bt57.50, based on 21.3xPE’22 (+1SD of 10-yr trading average). Our TP and 22E downwards earnings revisal by 6% 
• 2Q22 should be lowest of the year due to declining sales from decrease by 25% in output in Chinese factories.Recommend accumulating shares,due to attractive valuations, prior to 2H22 earnings recovery.
• 2H22 earnings will recover from GPM expansion from revenue contribution from new SiC segment (consistently gross loss until now)and better product mix in IC Thai factory.Sales should also grow moderately 

• The six value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the earnings outlook
• Of these, we believe Krung Thai Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also like Kasikorn Bank
• We see TMBThanchart as an early stage “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, and push down its cost of risk sustainably to lower levels

• Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.
• The 2Q22 earnings is expected to improve QoQ from1 higher share of profit from HPC, 2)equity income from new 145MWe  gas PP COD in 1Q22.While full quarter profit from 476M 
• We see the 2022-25 outlook promising,considering 1)Steady earnings growth supported by 28% PP operating capacity expansion and 2)rising RE proportion which will rule out the ESG concerns and support rerating

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• This week, the highest gross spreads are Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU). 
• The lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP).

• Conference meeting on Wednesday came with negative news on 22E earnings prospects. We maintain our BUY rating with TP of Bt5.09, based on the tender offer price.
• Management expects no pushback in terms of creditor approval.We believe that the merger will also receive regulatory approval,but with several regulations to also protect consumers, which could impact NewCo’s potential.
• We revise 22E earnings down to Bt2.9bn loss from Bt736m loss, previously, to reflect higher D&A costs and ARPU decline due to harsh competition in 2022.

• Maintain BUY rating with TP of B23.00 derived from 16xPE’22E, which is close to +1SD of 5-years trading average. Our rating reflects strong pet food growth outlook, attractive 3.8% yield
• We foresee earnings momentum to improve QoQ in 2Q22, supported by better pet food business unit from new capacity, and further strengthen by Baht downtrend.
• In our view, the new pet food capacity should gather pace in 2H22, upon better demand in light of favorable macro dynamics. Moreover

• Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone regarding 2022 outlook.We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt38.0,based DCF method (WACC of 8% and terminal growth of 2%)
• Positive 2022outlook as we expect the hotel industry to make a strong come back in 2022due to vaccine roll outs and easing of international travel restrictions,making the earnings positive for2022
• Since 1Q is typically the lowest travel seasonality,we expect the revenue from hotels to grow for next 3 quarters (around 50% by 4Q22), contributing around 75% of the total revenue.

• Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a positive tone.We reiterate our BUY rating for SAPPE with a target price of Bt35.25 (+10% from previous TP)based on 24xPE’22E, close to +1SD
• Management targeted revenue at Bt10bn by 2026 or +22%CAGR(2022-26). •In our view, SAPPE target is quite challenging amid concern over rising inflation situation. 
• We expect 2Q22 earnings to continue to grow YoY and QoQ supported by (1) higher oversea market penetration, (2) distribution channel expansion,  (3) more effective marketing activities

• We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt69.0,derived using DCF methodology (WACC 5.7% and TG 1%),implying 32x PE’23E.Our valuation reflects weak SPP operations outlook in 2022
• Expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ,from 1) better SPP margin backed by upward Ft adjustment 2) Full quarter profit recognition from GE phase 5 after maintenance shut down (3Q21-1Q22)
• Full year 2022 outlook remains weak, as we expect the EPS to shrink by 37%.YoY due to continued pressure on SPP margins from high fuel cost. We are more positive 

• We maintain the BUY call and a target price of Bt3.80 derived from 18.0xPE’22  (5-year average) or implies 10% discount to Thai real estate sector. BUY rating reflects positive outlook 
• Expect Industrial estate business’s revenue (15% of total revenue in 2021) to grow 50% in 2022E supported by 1.) higher land transfer along with increasing investor traffic at site-visit, and, 
• Maintain positive outlook for utility business under WHAUP(BUY: Bt4.60)in 2022E driven by an increase in water sales volume, solar roof portfolio expansion (target to hit 300MW by 2023 from 60MW 

• We maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt58.0, derived using SOTP methodology, implying 51x PE’22E. The rising gas price has relatively lower impact on GULF’s earnings performance 
• Positive 2Q22 and 2022 outlook,The revenue recognition from GSRC unit 1,2(COD in 2021), unit 3 commencing operation in 2Q22,along with equity income from INTUCH, should drive 2Q22 profit both YoY&QoQ.
• 27% power generation capacity expansion in 2022, including 1.3GW IPP gas power plant (TH), 100MW solar roof top (TH) and 128 MW offshore wind (Vietnam).

• We downgrade to HOLD rating from  BUY rating with TP unchanged at Bt43, derived from  DCF (WACC of 10% and TG of 2%), implying 28.6xPE’23. 
• The company reported a net loss of Bt44m in 1Q22 compared to net loss of Bt476m in 1Q21 and net profit of Bt152m in 4Q21 in line with our expectation.
• 1Q22 EBITDA doubled YoY but remained flat QoQ at Bt951m supported by strong YoY recovery of hotel performance benefitting from 1) Rebound of Thailand tourism 2) Continued strong operations.

• Yesterday analyst meeting came out with slightly positive tone. However, weak short-term performance from rising energy cost and lower consumer purchasing power and limited upside to our target price
• From management guidance, gross profit margin will be decline 50bps YoY in 2022 due to a rising energy cost and raw material in packaging business and consumer supply business. Meanwhile
• We have positive view on medium to long-term performance supported by better modern retail performance (BigC). Currently,BigC market share was at 21% (+1% to 2% YoY) and we expect BigC 

• Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt27.0, derived from an SOTP methodology. Our TP implies 25xPE’22E
• Expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve both YoY and QoQ, on the back of continued oil sales growth  and healthy marketing margin.
• The 2H22 earnings should improve YoY from better sales growth, however oil marketing margin may prone to downside risk as the crude oil price continue to remain at high levels.

• Undemanding valuation and good dividend, BUY
• 1Q22 earnings recovery
• New orders to boost sales growth
• Profit growth seen despite high costs

1Q22 earnings recovered QoQ to THB259m (+44% QoQ, -19% YoY). We expect new orders to help fuel 2022E sales growth of 6.5% YoY. While higher steel costs will initially squeeze gross profit margins, as it takes 3-6 months to hike prices, we expect only a dip in GPM. We forecast FY22 earnings to hit a new high of THB1.032b (+8% YoY). We think SAT’s valuations are undemanding at 7.6x 2022E P/E and 1x P/BV, with a healthy THB3.5b cash on hand. It offers a good dividend yield of 8.6%. Our THB25.50 TP is based on 10-yr average forward P/E of 10.3x. Maintain BUY.

• At the last close prices, Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)’s gross spread to the dividend-adjusted VTO price is 5.6% and 11.1%, respectively.  
• The merger has received DTAC and True shareholder approvals. The merger hinges on regulatory approval.
• The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread of 5.5% trading above the average spread since the merger announcement of 3.4% (ex. transaction costs).

• Analyst meeting came out with positive tone regarding 22E outlook.We maintain BUY rating with TP Bt4.20 derived from DCF valuation (WACC=7% & Terminal growth= 2%) implying 10% discount to 23.1xPE’23.
• The company reported net loss of Bt313m in 1Q22 compared to net loss of Bt492m in 1Q21 and net loss of Bt246 in 4Q21 in line with our expectation.
• Excluding extra ordinary items, the operational losses declined YoY and QoQ to Bt313m since revenue almost doubled YoY  and increased 4% QoQ to Bt646m after bottoming out in 3Q21.

• Last week analyst meeting came out with neutral tone.We reiterate our BUY rating for CRC with a target price of Bt43.0,based on DCF (WACC of 8.2% and TG of 2%)
• Management maintained its key 2022 financial guidance. CRC targeted 2022 sales growth of 15%-20%YoY, mainly from fashion business and targeted GPM retail sales to expend by 100-120bps YoY.
• •CRC showed three measures to mitigate the effect from uncertainties under global issue such as(1)cost optimization by controlling OPEX growth to not be higher than 50% of total sales growth

• Maintain BUY rating with a new TP of B185.00 (down 9% from previous TP) derived from 13.2xPE’22E which is close to -1SD of 10-years trading average.
• Excluding extraordinary items, 1Q22 core profit was at Bt1.5bn (+45%YoY, +20%QoQ), The YoY rose on solid revenue growth (+21%YoY), and equity income (+23%YoY).
• We expect earnings trend to gear down QoQ in 2Q22, drag by mounting cost pressures behind the surging input costs upon the unfavorable macro dynamics and seasonality.

• Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt16.70. Our BUY call reflects steady net profit growth,resilient asset quality, and attractive valuation.Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model 
• Management maintained its key 2022 financial guidance. It affirmed that the KTB’s coverage ratio was high enough to withstand uncertainties and there was room to reduce provisions ahead.
• We increased our net profit forecast by 5-9%for 2022-24 to reflect our lower provision estimates.We expect KTB’s net profit growth to be solid at 19%YoY in 2022 and continue rising

• ORI’s 1Q22 net profit was at Bt 738m (-11%YoY, -9%QoQ),in line with our forecast. Excluding special items from sell of investment at Bt 297 m,normal  profit  was  at  Bt441m (-37%YoY,-27%QoQ).
• The dropped in YoY and QoQ of net profit was pressured by  lower revenue recognition from real estate sales in non-JV project toBt3.04bn(-12%YoY,-11%QoQ)and the loss from equity income at Bt48m
• Expect 2Q22 earning to improve QoQ supported by revenue recognition of Park Origin Thonglor JV project worth Bt12bn and two non-JV condominium project worth Bt1.16bn.

• Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect the refinery margin continue to improve in 2Q22 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spread.
• The 1Q22 net profit spiked to an all time high of Bt5.3bn (+164% YoY, +185% QoQ), supported by higher GRM and Sales volume.
• We expect 2Q22 recurring profit to improve on the back of rising GRM due to  Russia oil supply disruption and strong oil demand as air travel resumed after COVID impact. 

• Resilient earnings, cheap valuation: BUY
• Strong 1Q22 core profit, but F/X loss lowers net profit
• Raising prices and managing costs to support GPM
• 2022: sales to grow, core profits stable