Category

Thailand

Jul 05
0

Thailand: Kasikornbank PCL, Siam Commercial Bank PCL, Bangkok Bank Public and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Potential MSCI Inclusion
  • SCB – Steady Lending, Capital Growth
  • BBL : So Far so Good

Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Potential MSCI Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK-R TB) was deleted from the MSCI Thailand Index in June 2021 following the issuance of NVDR’s approaching its permitted limit of 25% of issued shares.
  • With 12 months since deletion complete and meeting market cap, liquidity and foreign room thresholds, Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) could be added to the MSCI Thailand Index in August.
  • If added to the MSCI Thailand Index, we estimate passive trackers will need to buy 47.39m shares (US$199m; 3.9 days of ADV) of Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) on 31 August.

SCB – Steady Lending, Capital Growth

By Daniel Tabbush

  • SCB is well-positioned to benefit from the delta in tourism
  • There will be a special dividend at mid-year, amount still unknown
  • BitKub acquisition announced last year, remains pending, may not go through

BBL : So Far so Good

By Pi Research

  • Maintain BUY for BBL with a target price of Bt159.00. We like its strong balance sheet to withstand uncertainty, sustainable profit growth, potential benefits from an upcycle of interest rates
  • A solid net profit in 2Q22 : We expect Bangkok Bank (BBL) to post a net profit of Bt7.4b in 2Q22, up 17% YoY (+4% QoQ). 
  • Lending growth in 2Q22 is expected to rise by 1% QoQ given an expected rise in business loans and loans made through the international network. Asset quality remains resilient

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Jul 01
0

Thailand: Kasikornbank PCL, BG Container Glass PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • KBANK : Return to Normal Operations
  • BGC : Packaging Remains a Key Focus

KBANK : Return to Normal Operations

By Pi Research

  • Maintain BUY for KBANK with a target price of Bt174.00. We are optimistic about the joint venture between KBANK and JMT. Going forward, we expect KBANK’s profitability to increase 
  • A joint venture between KBANK and JMT:  KBANK joined with JMT Network (JMT) in establishing JK Asset Management Co., Ltd. (JK AMC). The establishment of JK AMC will allow KBANK 
  • KBANK plans to sell NPLs of Bt50bn to JK AMC within 2022, which will alleviate KBANK’s future NPLs, improve net interest margin (NIM), and reduce potential provisions 

BGC : Packaging Remains a Key Focus

By Pi Research

  • Yesterday site visit to BVP and BGP plants came out as neutral tone.We do see its underlying growth potential but believe both will not be a growth driver for 2022-23. 
  • Yesterday’s company visit came in at neutral tone : We visited BVP (Paper packaging manufacturer) at Pathumthani and BGP (PET and Plastic films packaging manufacture) at Ayutthaya. 
  • A challenging growth roadmap, but only time will tell: The company target to achieve sales to Bt25bn by 2025,representing a 19% 4Y CAGR (2021-25E) by M&A strategy focusing at businesses 

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Jun 30
0

Thailand: Total Access Communication and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • DTAC : Lower Costs Will Improve Earnings in 2Q22

DTAC : Lower Costs Will Improve Earnings in 2Q22

By Pi Research

  • We maintain our HOLD rating and TP of Bt47.60 based on DTAC’s tender offer price. We believe the company will benefit from seasonal low costs despite weak sales performance. 
  • Expect QoQ improvement in 2Q22 net profit : We expect 2Q22 net profit to be at Bt854m (-44% YoY, +18% QoQ) as a result of seasonal low costs. 
  • We expect 2Q22 revenue at Bt19bn (flat YoY, -4% QoQ). Top-line performance continues to struggle YoY and QoQ due to weak economic activity.

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Jun 29
0

Thailand: Thai Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Life Insurance IPO – Can’t Pinpoint the Upside

Thai Life Insurance IPO – Can’t Pinpoint the Upside

By Sumeet Singh

  • Thai Life Insurance (TLI) is looking to raise up to US$975m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors including GIC have taken up around 54% of the deal.
  • Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
  • In this note we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Jun 27
0

Thailand: Thai Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Life Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

Thai Life Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

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Jun 23
0

Thailand: Thai Life Insurance, True Corp Pcl, aCommerce Group, Kiatnakin Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison
  • True/​​DTAC: Merger Support After Court Ruling
  • ACommerce Pre-IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note – Probably Has to Scale Further to Become Profitable
  • KKP : A Growth and Dividend Play

Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
  • Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
  • In this note, we will talk about valuations and undertake a peer comparison versus its international peers.

True/​​DTAC: Merger Support After Court Ruling

By David Blennerhassett

  • According to local media, Thailand’s Central Administrative Court has dismissed a petition seeking to overturn a 2018 NBTC regulation that allowed mergers to take place without requiring the regulator’s approval.
  • Reportedly the Court ruled earlier this month that the enforcement of this regulation was lawful; and that the DTAC/True merger would not cause unrecoverable damage to the telecom sector.
  • Both DTAC and True gained on the news. A merger now appears increasingly more likely; although conditions may still be imposed to protect consumers. 

ACommerce Pre-IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note – Probably Has to Scale Further to Become Profitable

By Clarence Chu

  • ACommerce Group (ACOM TB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
  • ACommerce is an ecommerce enabler providing end-to-end and ala carte ecommerce solutions for brands in Southeast Asia (SEA). 
  • In this note, we will discuss aCommerce’s updates since our last note.

KKP : A Growth and Dividend Play

By Pi Research

  • Maintain BUY for KKP with a target price of Bt82.00. We like its steady net profit growth, resilient fundamentals, and high dividend yield, expected at 5.3-6.6% for 2022-24.
  • Strong 2Q22 net profit to rise YoY : We expect Kiatnakin Phatra (KKP) to post a net profit of Bt1.9b in 2Q22, up 39% YoY (-9% QoQ). 
  • Lending growth in 2Q22 will likely continue to be strong at 4.2% QoQ (1Q22: +6.5% QoQ), largely due to higher demand from vehicle hire purchase and mortgage lending. 

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Jun 22
0

Thailand: Thai Life Insurance, Total Access Communication and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Industry Dynamics and Domestic Peer Comparison Aren’t Very Encouraging
  • DTAC/True Merger: Administrative Court Ruling a Positive

Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Industry Dynamics and Domestic Peer Comparison Aren’t Very Encouraging

By Sumeet Singh

  • Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
  • Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
  • In this note, we will talk about the industry dynamics and undertake a peer comparison versus its domestic peers.

DTAC/True Merger: Administrative Court Ruling a Positive

By Arun George

  • Press reports (here and here) suggest that Administrative Court has ruled out the request to suspend the DTAC/True merger and that the regulation which repeals NBTC’s veto rights is lawful.
  • This development suggests that the NBTC will apply remedial conditions rather than block the merger. The timeline for the satisfaction of VTO conditions is from late June to early August. 
  • With the Court ruling increasing the probability of a successful merger, it is attractive to buy the current share price ratio of 9.698x vs the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.

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Jun 21
0

Thailand: Com7 PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance: BLA, JMT, JMART Added; COM7, RATCH, STGT Out

SET50 Index Rebalance: BLA, JMT, JMART Added; COM7, RATCH, STGT Out

By Brian Freitas

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Jun 20
0

Thailand: Total Access Communication and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Total Access Communication (DTAC.BK) – Cost Savings To The Rescue

Total Access Communication (DTAC.BK) – Cost Savings To The Rescue

By Maybank Research

  • Strong 2Q22E profit likely on low costs
  • Expect 2Q22E core profit of THB1.0b (+20% QoQ)
  • Weak revenue due to suppressed purchasing power
  • Reiterate BUY; cancellation of merger is a key risk

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Jun 18
0

Thailand: Thai Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Thai Life Insurance (124744Z TB) has started to meet investors ahead of its $1 billion IPO. The roadshow will run till early July with a listing targeted later in July.
  • In Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, tepid total premium performance, a checkered record in sales channel diversification, stagnating agent growth and inconsistent agent productivity.

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