Category

Technical Analysis

Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

By Joe Jasper

  • Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we’ve seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
  • We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
  • Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Further Declines in DXY and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

By Joe Jasper

  • In our two previous Int’l Compass reports (Aug. 18 & 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
  • $93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
  • $93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
  • The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
  • A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Is the Relief Rally Over? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Is the Relief Rally Over?

Is the Relief Rally Over?

By Cam Hui

  • Nvidia blew the doors off Street expectations last week, but the market reacted with semiconductor stocks turning red on the day. Is the relief rally over?
  • We conclude from our review of technical conditions that while breadth indicators argue for a deeper correction, that day may not have arrived just yet.
  • Sentiment is too bearish and should put a floor on stock prices in the short term. The relief rally probably has further room to run.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
  • As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
  • Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Crypto Selloff: What now? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Selloff: What now?

Crypto Selloff: What now?

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The recent 7% drop in Bitcoin’s value coincided with SpaceX’s announcement of selling off its entire $375 million worth of holdings.
  • This event highlighted two crucial factors: the lack of liquidity in the market and the end of the bear flag counter-trend rally.
  • Additionally, Binance Coin was already showing signs of breaking down, which could decrease the overall crypto market cap.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

By Joe Jasper

  • Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
  • Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
  • Longer-Term support on the S&P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: 10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • 10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int’l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
  • We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
  • If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

By Joe Jasper

  • Fitch’s U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.
  • We remain bullish on the S&P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).
  • Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Normal Pullback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States’ credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
  • We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
  • $TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we’d buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free