Category

Technical Analysis

Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Following last week’s pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
  • As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
  • Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.

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Jan 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buys Within Global Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

By Joe Jasper

  • Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
  • Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
  • Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX

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Jan 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

By Joe Jasper

  • As the saying goes, “sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.” That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
  • Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard — and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
  • Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
  • There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
  • Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials

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Dec 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains in “lockout rally” mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.
  • We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.
  • We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

By Joe Jasper

  • Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering “breakaway gaps” and what appeared to be an ongoing “lockout rally”
  • All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
  • Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.

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Dec 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

By Joe Jasper

  • Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
  • The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
  • Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels

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Dec 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

By Joe Jasper

  • Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
  • The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
  • Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • In our October 26, 2023 Int’l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
  • Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
  • We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology

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Nov 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

By Joe Jasper

  • Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
  • New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
  • Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)

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