Category

Technical Analysis

Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy

Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy

By Cam Hui

  • If you are concerned about the YOLO and FOMO frenzy in the stock market, you may wish to consider gold and gold mining stocks as refuges.
  • The technical pattern for gold is constructive, but not unabashedly bullish. 
  • Gold miners appear to be washed out against gold and present the best opportunity for gains in the next 6–12 months.

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Mar 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
  • Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
  • We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.

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Feb 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

By Joe Jasper

  • Large-Cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
  • Mid-Caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
  • Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.

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Feb 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
  • As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
  • Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Small Caps Outperform Despite “Hot” Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Small Caps Outperform Despite “Hot” Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps Outperform Despite “Hot” Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

By Joe Jasper

  • In spite of last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
  • The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
  • Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

By Joe Jasper

  • Large-Cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
  • The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
  • Friday’s PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000

Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000

By Cam Hui

  • We believe the current AI-driven rally has a long way to run. Market mania tops are characterized by excessive froth, which is not in evidence today.
  • In the short run, price momentum in technology stocks is faltering, and these stocks can pull back at any time.
  • We would regard any pullback in these stocks as a buying opportunity.

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Feb 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

By Joe Jasper

  • More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
  • Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
  • 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).

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Jan 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

By Joe Jasper

  • We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
  • A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
  • With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Following last week’s pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
  • As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
  • Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.

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