Category

Technical Analysis

Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

By Joe Jasper

  • We’ve discussed for months that we’ll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
  • Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
  • Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.

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Apr 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

By Joe Jasper

  • The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
  • Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
  • We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
  • Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
  • Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.

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Mar 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).
  • To be clear, we aren’t calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.
  • Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.

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Mar 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished

This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished

By Cam Hui

  • A review of the structure of the stock market makes us long-term bullish.
  • Growth stocks, as proxied by the NASDAQ 100, are weakening but a rotating correction is evident as value stocks are taking up the leadership mantle.
  • That said, the S&P 500 is short-term extended and can pull back at any time, with initial support at about 5000 and strong secondary support at about 4800.

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Mar 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
  • Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we’d welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
  • Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials

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Mar 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

By Joe Jasper

  • We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
  • This still hasn’t happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
  • If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys

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Mar 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: The Stealth Breakout You May Have Missed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • The Stealth Breakout You May Have Missed

The Stealth Breakout You May Have Missed

By Cam Hui

  • Gold prices have staged a convincing long-term upside breakout against a backdrop of skepticism, which is contrarian bullish.
  • Point and figure charts indicate a measured objective of 2576 over a probable 6–18-month time horizon and a measured objective of 3372 over a probable 3–5-year time frame.
  • Gold mining stocks are cheap relative to gold and could offer even more upside potential on an intermediate- and long-term basis.

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Mar 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: A Hindenburg Moment For Growth Stocks? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A Hindenburg Moment For Growth Stocks?

A Hindenburg Moment For Growth Stocks?

By Cam Hui

  • Our base-case scenario calls for a period of minor weakness in the S&P 500 or sideways consolidation, marked by a rolling correction.
  • A review of market internals reveals weakness in growth stocks and better performance by value and cyclical stocks.
  • The risk is a major scare in the extended growth names which drag down the S&P 500 further than we expect.

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Mar 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

By Joe Jasper

  • The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
  • In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
  • Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs — buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates

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