Category

Technical Analysis

Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Small Caps Outperform Despite “Hot” Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Small Caps Outperform Despite “Hot” Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps Outperform Despite “Hot” Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

By Joe Jasper

  • In spite of last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
  • The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
  • Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

By Joe Jasper

  • Large-Cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
  • The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
  • Friday’s PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000

Why This AI Bull Is Nothing Like the NASDAQ in 2000

By Cam Hui

  • We believe the current AI-driven rally has a long way to run. Market mania tops are characterized by excessive froth, which is not in evidence today.
  • In the short run, price momentum in technology stocks is faltering, and these stocks can pull back at any time.
  • We would regard any pullback in these stocks as a buying opportunity.

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Feb 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

By Joe Jasper

  • More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
  • Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
  • 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).

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Jan 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

By Joe Jasper

  • We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
  • A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
  • With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Following last week’s pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
  • As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
  • Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.

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Jan 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buys Within Global Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

By Joe Jasper

  • Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
  • Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
  • Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX

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Jan 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

By Joe Jasper

  • As the saying goes, “sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.” That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
  • Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard — and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
  • Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
  • There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
  • Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials

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Dec 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains in “lockout rally” mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.
  • We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.
  • We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC

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