Category

Technical Analysis

May 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was “quite possible” the lows were in.
  • Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
  • China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.

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May 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Over the past two weeks we’ve discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
  • Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
  • We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.

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May 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
  • Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int’l Compass
  • Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int’l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI

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May 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be “in” for this pullback.
  • Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
  • We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: International Automobile Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • International Automobile Analysis

International Automobile Analysis

By Douglas Busch

  • Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.
  • New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA
  • Updated JD.com general status from last week’s China/Japan Note encouraging.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

By Cam Hui

  • Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.
  • Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.
  • Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.

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Apr 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&P 500
  • Since late-February, we’ve discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
  • 4920-4950 is now support near last week’s lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Silver Measured Move to 35.50 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
  • US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
  • Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

By Joe Jasper

  • A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
  • Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
  • ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: KWEB Attractive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

By Douglas Busch

  • KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
  • Toyota>Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
  • JD>BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.

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