Category

Technical Analysis

May 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
  • Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
  • Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight

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May 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Commodity Comeback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Commodity Comeback

Commodity Comeback

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. 
  • Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.
  • Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.

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May 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
  • All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
  • Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Red Dragon Awakening and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Red Dragon Awakening

Red Dragon Awakening

By Douglas Busch

  • China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base
  • Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH
  • In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group

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May 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was “quite possible” the lows were in.
  • Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
  • China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.

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May 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Over the past two weeks we’ve discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
  • Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
  • We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.

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May 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
  • Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int’l Compass
  • Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int’l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI

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May 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be “in” for this pullback.
  • Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
  • We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: International Automobile Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • International Automobile Analysis

International Automobile Analysis

By Douglas Busch

  • Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.
  • New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA
  • Updated JD.com general status from last week’s China/Japan Note encouraging.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

By Cam Hui

  • Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.
  • Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.
  • Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.

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