Category

Technical Analysis

Jun 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

By Joe Jasper

  • Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they’re extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
  • The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
  • If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership

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Jun 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Not much has changed since our latest Int’l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled “Buy the Pullback.” 
  • We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
  • Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.

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Jun 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
  • Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
  • Longer-Term, we’re bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We’d need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.

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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

By Douglas Busch

  • Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.
  • Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.
  • Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

By Joe Jasper

  • The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
  • False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
  • IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.

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Jun 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
  • Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int’l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
  • As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.

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May 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
  • Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
  • Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight

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May 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Commodity Comeback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Commodity Comeback

Commodity Comeback

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. 
  • Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.
  • Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.

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May 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
  • All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
  • Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Red Dragon Awakening and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Red Dragon Awakening

Red Dragon Awakening

By Douglas Busch

  • China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base
  • Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH
  • In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group

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