Category

Technical Analysis

Jan 07
0

Daily Technical Analysis: Samsung Bear Targets Coming into Focus and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Samsung Bear Targets Coming into Focus
  2. Naver Bull Wedge to Trade Higher
  3. Japan Bank Index Bearish Head and Shoulders
  4. Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.
  5. Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

1. Samsung Bear Targets Coming into Focus

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) bear call from 50k has rewarded with a series of short trades with the most recent short from 46k and has sliced through support at 39,500. Impulsive nature of the decline tell us a key low will take more time to take shape.

SEC is pressing on critical relative support versus the Kospi. A break would send ripples through the broader market in terms of the direction bias. Kospi has already spent far too much time below the macro pivot barrier at 272k for signs of any immediate recovery. Risk lies with a downside overshoot below 250 support for the Kospi.

SEC is completing a minute full wave count down that sets up a counter trend bounce which is tradable but the major low remains elusive. We outline probable downside targets in late Q1/Q2, upside cap into Q3 and the more strategic buy support.

2. Naver Bull Wedge to Trade Higher

Naver

After an impulsive rise from the 110.5k dual bottom, Naver Corp (035420 KS) has formed a bull wedge that is expected to see a nice rally and perform over the Korean market.

RSI also shows a compelling set up for a rise.

Buy volumes are starting to improve and supportive.

Targets are 8% and 14% higher from current levels.

Macro pivot resistance will cap rally attermpts in Q1.

3. Japan Bank Index Bearish Head and Shoulders

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Japanese banks telegraphed the Nikkei plunge as did our insight on the USD/JPY Dollar Yen BIG Short/Inflection Level and Targets .

We flagged a bearish Nikkei cycle in Japan’s Crowded Long Faces Exodus Pressure.

Japan bank index exhibits are very clear bearish head and shoulder pattern that broke neckline support and will offer a great short into a bounce for further weakness. This warns of further deterioration in the Nikkei post uptick.

4. Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Untitled

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering & Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

5. Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

Untitled

Wednesday’s rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday’s sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

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Jan 06
0

Daily Technical Analysis: Naver Bull Wedge to Trade Higher and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Naver Bull Wedge to Trade Higher
  2. Japan Bank Index Bearish Head and Shoulders
  3. Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.
  4. Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact
  5. Apple Pain Trade Continues with Key Levels in Focus

1. Naver Bull Wedge to Trade Higher

Naver

After an impulsive rise from the 110.5k dual bottom, Naver Corp (035420 KS) has formed a bull wedge that is expected to see a nice rally and perform over the Korean market.

RSI also shows a compelling set up for a rise.

Buy volumes are starting to improve and supportive.

Targets are 8% and 14% higher from current levels.

Macro pivot resistance will cap rally attermpts in Q1.

2. Japan Bank Index Bearish Head and Shoulders

Japan%20banks

Japanese banks telegraphed the Nikkei plunge as did our insight on the USD/JPY Dollar Yen BIG Short/Inflection Level and Targets .

We flagged a bearish Nikkei cycle in Japan’s Crowded Long Faces Exodus Pressure.

Japan bank index exhibits are very clear bearish head and shoulder pattern that broke neckline support and will offer a great short into a bounce for further weakness. This warns of further deterioration in the Nikkei post uptick.

3. Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Untitled

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering & Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

4. Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

Untitled

Wednesday’s rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday’s sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

5. Apple Pain Trade Continues with Key Levels in Focus

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Following up on our August 2018 AAPL sell call and our insight Apple Trend Fractures but Nearing Tactical Buy Support with a Bumpy Road Ahead. Our core bear thesis for tech from the summer of 2018 is playing out and still has more pain left until we reach key target levels in late Q1 2019.

Sell rally attempts was the bet/call.

Break below 160 support was pivotal.

Core macro bear bias remains toward the higher degree 50% retracement.

Near term down cycle looking increasingly oversold and reaching for our target support outlined in charts and in the previous insight.

Will be watching sell volume on today’s miss.

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Jan 03
0

Daily Technical Analysis: Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM. and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.
  2. Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact
  3. Apple Pain Trade Continues with Key Levels in Focus
  4. SPX and Asia Bear Kick Off

1. Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Untitled

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering & Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

2. Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

Untitled

Wednesday’s rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday’s sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

3. Apple Pain Trade Continues with Key Levels in Focus

Aapl%20daily%20for%20sk

Following up on our August 2018 AAPL sell call and our insight Apple Trend Fractures but Nearing Tactical Buy Support with a Bumpy Road Ahead. Our core bear thesis for tech from the summer of 2018 is playing out and still has more pain left until we reach key target levels in late Q1 2019.

Sell rally attempts was the bet/call.

Break below 160 support was pivotal.

Core macro bear bias remains toward the higher degree 50% retracement.

Near term down cycle looking increasingly oversold and reaching for our target support outlined in charts and in the previous insight.

Will be watching sell volume on today’s miss.

4. SPX and Asia Bear Kick Off

A brief positioning sequence update as trade kicks off for 2019. Our S&P bounce sequence outlined after Christmas met our C wave target and now set for some tactical ranging before reach for new lows in Q1.

The fact that Asia could not must a rally on the back of the US 5% move higher on December 26th shed light on the bias this is resuming today after flat range patterns are breaking down.

Sell rallies remains our macro bias, however we see a tactical low shaping up next week in part of a range bounce flat pattern ahead of the bigger bear cycle due into late Q1.

Asia base case downside targets are outlined as well as fresh short resistance levels.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Jan 02
0

Daily Technical Analysis: SPX and Asia Bear Kick Off and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. SPX and Asia Bear Kick Off

1. SPX and Asia Bear Kick Off

A brief positioning sequence update as trade kicks off for 2019. Our S&P bounce sequence outlined after Christmas met our C wave target and now set for some tactical ranging before reach for new lows in Q1.

The fact that Asia could not must a rally on the back of the US 5% move higher on December 26th shed light on the bias this is resuming today after flat range patterns are breaking down.

Sell rallies remains our macro bias, however we see a tactical low shaping up next week in part of a range bounce flat pattern ahead of the bigger bear cycle due into late Q1.

Asia base case downside targets are outlined as well as fresh short resistance levels.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Dec 24
0

Daily Technical Analysis: SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM’s the Perform and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM’s the Perform
  2. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight
  3. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
  4. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US

1. SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM’s the Perform

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Short press below S&P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.

Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.

Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.

EEM outperform versus the S&P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.

MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM’s is the space to participate.

2. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight

Untitled

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness.  Although the MSCI EM’s price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

3. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM

Untitled

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

4. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US

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Our insight Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break outlined the lead breaks in small caps, financials and transports that signals a break lower in the S&P.

We now turn to the last bastion of strength that would induce a high momentum decline below SPX 2,550. Defensive sectors in the US now face late cycle selling now that core lead sectors are breaking lower.

US healthcare and consumer staples have been a core outperform pair over being short the S&P and has served us well with ominous peak signals in the making.

US healthcare ETF (XLV) chart is used as the safe haven proxy that would induce a big inflection point for US equities.

Dec 23
0

Daily Technical Analysis: SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM’s the Perform and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM’s the Perform
  2. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight
  3. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
  4. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US
  5. Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

1. SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM’s the Perform

Cpg%20insert

Short press below S&P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.

Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.

Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.

EEM outperform versus the S&P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.

MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM’s is the space to participate.

2. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight

Untitled

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness.  Although the MSCI EM’s price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

3. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM

Untitled

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

4. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US

Xlv%20us%20etf

Our insight Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break outlined the lead breaks in small caps, financials and transports that signals a break lower in the S&P.

We now turn to the last bastion of strength that would induce a high momentum decline below SPX 2,550. Defensive sectors in the US now face late cycle selling now that core lead sectors are breaking lower.

US healthcare and consumer staples have been a core outperform pair over being short the S&P and has served us well with ominous peak signals in the making.

US healthcare ETF (XLV) chart is used as the safe haven proxy that would induce a big inflection point for US equities.

5. Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

Spx%20russ%202k%20d

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.

Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.

Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.

Breadth remains bearish.

USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.

Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

Dec 21
0

Daily Technical Analysis: EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight
  2. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
  3. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US
  4. Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break
  5. S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support

1. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight

Untitled

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness.  Although the MSCI EM’s price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

2. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM

Untitled

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

3. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US

Xlv%20us%20etf

Our insight Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break outlined the lead breaks in small caps, financials and transports that signals a break lower in the S&P.

We now turn to the last bastion of strength that would induce a high momentum decline below SPX 2,550. Defensive sectors in the US now face late cycle selling now that core lead sectors are breaking lower.

US healthcare and consumer staples have been a core outperform pair over being short the S&P and has served us well with ominous peak signals in the making.

US healthcare ETF (XLV) chart is used as the safe haven proxy that would induce a big inflection point for US equities.

4. Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

Spx%20russ%202k%20d

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.

Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.

Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.

Breadth remains bearish.

USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.

Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

5. S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support

Untitled

The S&P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown.  We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.

Dec 21
0

Daily Technical Analysis: Idemitsu Kosan Tactical Support with Macro Cycle Drag and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Idemitsu Kosan Tactical Support with Macro Cycle Drag

1. Idemitsu Kosan Tactical Support with Macro Cycle Drag

Idemit5su%20kosan%20for%20sk

Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) decline is nearing exhaustion support and sets up a tactical trade higher.

MACD breach of floor support now turns this key pivot level into a cap resistance on a recovery cycle. It also calls for a new and lower trading range.

Macro support breaks must be mended to turn the cycle from bearish back to neutral and will require a series of positive rally cycles for basing to unfold.

Tactical buy supports are outlined along with our tactical rally target, macro pivot resistance and the stop level.

Dec 20
0

Daily Technical Analysis: Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM
  2. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US
  3. Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break
  4. S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support
  5. Idemitsu Kosan Tactical Support with Macro Cycle Drag

1. Global Markets Deteriorating…Except EM

Untitled

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

2. This Is the Chart that Would Cause a Mini Crash in the US

Xlv%20us%20etf

Our insight Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break outlined the lead breaks in small caps, financials and transports that signals a break lower in the S&P.

We now turn to the last bastion of strength that would induce a high momentum decline below SPX 2,550. Defensive sectors in the US now face late cycle selling now that core lead sectors are breaking lower.

US healthcare and consumer staples have been a core outperform pair over being short the S&P and has served us well with ominous peak signals in the making.

US healthcare ETF (XLV) chart is used as the safe haven proxy that would induce a big inflection point for US equities.

3. Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

Spx%20russ%202k%20d

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.

Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.

Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.

Breadth remains bearish.

USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.

Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

4. S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support

Untitled

The S&P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown.  We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.

5. Idemitsu Kosan Tactical Support with Macro Cycle Drag

Idemit5su%20kosan%20for%20sk

Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) decline is nearing exhaustion support and sets up a tactical trade higher.

MACD breach of floor support now turns this key pivot level into a cap resistance on a recovery cycle. It also calls for a new and lower trading range.

Macro support breaks must be mended to turn the cycle from bearish back to neutral and will require a series of positive rally cycles for basing to unfold.

Tactical buy supports are outlined along with our tactical rally target, macro pivot resistance and the stop level.

Dec 20
0

Daily Technical Analysis: China Mobile and SK Telecom Defensive Plays and Top Trade Set Ups and more

By | Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. China Mobile and SK Telecom Defensive Plays and Top Trade Set Ups
  2. Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

1. China Mobile and SK Telecom Defensive Plays and Top Trade Set Ups

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We are playing any surprise bounce via Shanghai A 50 futures and the HSCE.

RIO tactical bounce trade presented.

Duration defensive long set ups outlined with stops and rally targets in China Mobile and SK Telecom.

KLSE bear triangle second trade in the making for a press toward 1,620/15.

In Europe, Italy is lagging the break down and a prime short candidate for a break below triple lows/out of flat congestion.

S&P tactical break points outlined with a bounce set up in the DJI. Base case view is to short a bounce.

Higher conviction pivot levels for a USD/JPY short are laid out with action turn levels and risk points.

2. Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

Untitled

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities remains extremely cautious and we expect downward consolidation to continue. Equity prices will need to show signs of bottoming in order for this outlook to change.  In our December International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our cautious outlook, provide a technical appraisal of major world markets, explore a possible bottom in the Chinese market, and highlight attractive setups in the Consumer Staples, Communications, Health Care, and Utilities Sectors.