Category

Technical Analysis

Aug 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

By Joe Jasper

  • We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
  • We still believe the S&P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
  • SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we’re not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time to Buy Japan? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Buy Japan?

Time to Buy Japan?

By Douglas Busch

  • Nikkei looking oversold on all daily, WEEKLY, and MONTHLY timeframes.
  • KWEB records strong bullish engulfing candle on weak overall tape Monday.
  • MELI versus AMZN ratio chart favoring the former. Technical complexion change.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
  • Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
  • Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)

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Jul 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

By Joe Jasper

  • Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
  • Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
  • With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.

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Jul 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

By Joe Jasper

  • Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
  • Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
  • The S&P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan’s TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level

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Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

By Joe Jasper

  • Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.
  • Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.
  • The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.

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Jul 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
  • In our previous Int’l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
  • This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates

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Jul 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time To Look Abroad? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time To Look Abroad?

Time To Look Abroad?

By Douglas Busch

  • US markets suffered a bearish reversal on CPI data. Time look to elsewhere?
  • China looks to be bottoming. Could the region begin to show relative strength?
  • Emerging markets look particularly attractive especially if the dollar trades lower.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
  • Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth’s outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
  • Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

By Joe Jasper

  • Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
  • This was a possibility we discussed in last week’s Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
  • We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass

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