Category

Technical Analysis

Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Xiaomi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The Hong Kong Indices have been much weaker than Taiwan & China due to liquidity and open capital account.
  • It is a canary for global indices and should be analyzed accordingly.
  • There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window
  • S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window

By Thomas Schroeder

  • In addition to shorting NDX at 13,000+, we saw key reversals in Japan and Taiwan after hitting short entry levels. Germany short is in focus as Europe tops.
  • Japan and Taiwan registered key reversals with NKY 27k and Taiwan 14,600 pivots to break.
  • Early August peak in the risk cycle ahead of a more brutal September period.

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
  • We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
  • The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom’s in.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets new lows.
  • A50 weakness is weighing on HK. HSI clear break down will lead the upcoming risk off cycle in Asia.
  • We like adding to a short on upticks with near resistance at 20,500. 19,700 is the pivot support to break below that will open the way to 18,200.

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Aug 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Europe and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys
  • XME and XLE Longs Meeting Targets

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Int’l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
  • But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
  • It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.

XME and XLE Longs Meeting Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • XME and XLE long bets outlined on July 18 are meeting targets to unwind/reverse with XME displaying intermediate potential out of a bull wedge formation.
  • Weak buy volumes on this rise fit with it being corrective in nature (vulnerable bounce), calling for a fresh bear test into September.
  • XME bull wedge brewing and 40 macro support stand out as a macro bull set up from September into year-end.

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Jul 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Defining US Risk Inflection and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Defining US Risk Inflection

Defining US Risk Inflection

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline.
  • Tech rally reacting to backward earnings. E’s will buckle into a recession. The July risk on rally cycle is closing.
  • NDX 13k and RTY 1,930 are key inflection levels that will drive the global risk cycle ahead of a more turbulent late August to October period.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Longfor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Longfor, AAC Technology, Ping An

Longfor, AAC Technology, Ping An

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Markets are treacherous, but none more than Hong Kong listed stocks.
  • The vicious short-covering rallies and an impulse selloff have become a hallmark of the last few weeks.
  • First, it was technology on news of ease in regulations, agreements with the US on accounting on a tiered classification of companies by Beijing or in case of Alibaba announcing making Hong Kong it’s primary listing to make stock eligible for South Bound inflows.

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Jul 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

By Joe Jasper

  • We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.
  • We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.
  • Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.

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Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: THE SPX Summer Top/Short Sequence and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • THE SPX Summer Top/Short Sequence
  • BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support

THE SPX Summer Top/Short Sequence

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX met the 4,000/20 summer rally target (long from 3,700) with a dip/rally sequence into early August to complete the topping process.
  • Transitioning from risk on to risk off while finessing the SPX 3,900 pivot support that will define market energy in early August and the macro risk tone.
  • NDX remains our favored short (aligned with SPX 4,000) and in early August. RTY long from 1,650 met our rally objective at 1,820+.

BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support

By Thomas Schroeder

  • BYD (1211 HK) is a short on upticks near the gap and physical resistance for a decline to pressure intermediate support at 240 (break expected).
  • Sell volumes spiked on the jolt down with sellers waiting overhead on a secondary bounce attempt.
  • RSI shows a compelling bearish set up after topping at the 70+ sell zone with bear divergence that supports a downside surprise.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.
  • Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
  • Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.

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Jul 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSBC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings
  • WTI 105 Rejection Sets up a Key Low at 89/85

HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • This week some of the strongest names in HSI are covered.
  • In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends or act as a continuation pattens.
  • These are likely to prove crucial to Hong Kong and Greater China.

WTI 105 Rejection Sets up a Key Low at 89/85

By Thomas Schroeder

  • WTI 105 short zone working again for a low near the 89/85 zone to set up a better buy level. Oil still struggling with supply/demand constraints.
  • 105 has been our firm sell zone. Gap lower will cut the legs out from under the XLE bounce.
  • We expect USD strength to resume and will put additional pressure on oil. Choppy overlapping decline warns of an upcoming WTI low as the descending pattern matures.

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