Category

Technical Analysis

Jul 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Defining US Risk Inflection and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Defining US Risk Inflection

Defining US Risk Inflection

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline.
  • Tech rally reacting to backward earnings. E’s will buckle into a recession. The July risk on rally cycle is closing.
  • NDX 13k and RTY 1,930 are key inflection levels that will drive the global risk cycle ahead of a more turbulent late August to October period.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Longfor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Longfor, AAC Technology, Ping An

Longfor, AAC Technology, Ping An

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Markets are treacherous, but none more than Hong Kong listed stocks.
  • The vicious short-covering rallies and an impulse selloff have become a hallmark of the last few weeks.
  • First, it was technology on news of ease in regulations, agreements with the US on accounting on a tiered classification of companies by Beijing or in case of Alibaba announcing making Hong Kong it’s primary listing to make stock eligible for South Bound inflows.

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Jul 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

By Joe Jasper

  • We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.
  • We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.
  • Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.

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Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: THE SPX Summer Top/Short Sequence and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • THE SPX Summer Top/Short Sequence
  • BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support

THE SPX Summer Top/Short Sequence

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX met the 4,000/20 summer rally target (long from 3,700) with a dip/rally sequence into early August to complete the topping process.
  • Transitioning from risk on to risk off while finessing the SPX 3,900 pivot support that will define market energy in early August and the macro risk tone.
  • NDX remains our favored short (aligned with SPX 4,000) and in early August. RTY long from 1,650 met our rally objective at 1,820+.

BYD 300-10 Short Zone to Press on 240 Support

By Thomas Schroeder

  • BYD (1211 HK) is a short on upticks near the gap and physical resistance for a decline to pressure intermediate support at 240 (break expected).
  • Sell volumes spiked on the jolt down with sellers waiting overhead on a secondary bounce attempt.
  • RSI shows a compelling bearish set up after topping at the 70+ sell zone with bear divergence that supports a downside surprise.

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Jul 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.
  • Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
  • Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.

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Jul 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSBC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings
  • WTI 105 Rejection Sets up a Key Low at 89/85

HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • This week some of the strongest names in HSI are covered.
  • In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends or act as a continuation pattens.
  • These are likely to prove crucial to Hong Kong and Greater China.

WTI 105 Rejection Sets up a Key Low at 89/85

By Thomas Schroeder

  • WTI 105 short zone working again for a low near the 89/85 zone to set up a better buy level. Oil still struggling with supply/demand constraints.
  • 105 has been our firm sell zone. Gap lower will cut the legs out from under the XLE bounce.
  • We expect USD strength to resume and will put additional pressure on oil. Choppy overlapping decline warns of an upcoming WTI low as the descending pattern matures.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: XME and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • XME, XLE Oversold Trade

XME, XLE Oversold Trade

By Thomas Schroeder

  • XME (metals/mining) and XLE are oversold rotation long plays for a rally off noteworthy support.
  • SPX rally stall near 3,900 near term resistance (dip/rally) must be factored into commodity price action.
  • USD is due for a marginal pullback that will provide fuel for oversold commodities. We like the AUD for a rally to 0.70.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Push into THE Summer Short Ahead of Q3 Pain and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Push into THE Summer Short Ahead of Q3 Pain

SPX Push into THE Summer Short Ahead of Q3 Pain

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX risk on July rise (early July buy call) is still missing the final piece of the puzzle – the C wave push to 4,000 for THE short.
  • Top building process near July 21 and again after a Fed hike knee jerk rise. Aligning risk points in Bitcoin, USD dip and sell levels in Europe and Asia (synergy).
  • THE short set up before next pain trade lower into September for an SPX decline of 18% with parts of EM and Asia taking it on the chin.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Bear Wedge Targets 15k and Will Lead Global Risk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bitcoin Bear Wedge Targets 15k and Will Lead Global Risk

Bitcoin Bear Wedge Targets 15k and Will Lead Global Risk

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bitcoin displays a high conviction bear wedge that will break lower with momentum, and bleed into the global risk cycle given the recent tight correlation.
  • Previous bear wedge breakdowns have been reliable and resulted in high momentum drops. Platform illiquidity/closures a system risk. 
  • MACD set for a bear turn from resistance that concurs with a decline toward the 15,600 target.

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Jul 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: FANG and HK Tech Bear Patterns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • FANG and HK Tech Bear Patterns

FANG and HK Tech Bear Patterns

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US tech remains a top short theme as we near the mid April cycle peak point (another cycle peak due post Fed hike). Tech remains the key bear driver.
  • FANG bear triangulation, NDX timid bounce, wedge counter trend count in KWEB appears complete (bear wedge) with some color on Tencent’s compelling bearish triangle setup for new lows.
  • Use July rally attempts to add to shorts for new chart lows in August/September. CPI print today a key input.

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